[2nd_serve]

Rundown to the final 16

The end of the season is becoming concentrated with important mathces. Here is my view of the important matches that can change the top 16 seeds and regional locations. For another day is the issue of the top 16 teams that don't have challenging matches in their final weeks.

April 7
North Carolina v. Duke 4 3


April 9
Baylor v. Northwestern 4 3
South Carolina v. Georgia 3 4
Notre Dame v. South Florida 7 0
Stanford v. Washington 4 3
USC v. ASU 5 2

April 10
North Carolina v. Clemson 4 3. here
Duke v. Georgia Tech. 12 pm (3 3 last match 6 6 in third set tiebreaker) current score here
UCLA v. ASU 12 pm PT (4 2, #4 still on court ) current score here
California v. Washington 12 pm PT (4 1, #1 & #2 on court in 3rd set ) current score here


April 11
Florida v. Georgia (florida 5 Georia 0, Florida rolling) live score here. 1 pm ET
Duke v. Clemson (3 3, with final match #2 in third set Clemson up 3 0). live score here. )12 pm ET
South Carolina v. Tennessee (SC 3 Tenn 4 . live score here 1 pm
Georgia Tech v. UNC 2 5 live score here

April 16
UCLA v. USC live scoring HERE 12 pm PT

April 17
Florida v. North Carolina
Stanford v. California
FSU v. Duke 1 pm
Georgia v. Tennessee
South Carolina v. Florida

April 18
Florida v. Duke
UNC v. FSU 1 pm.

(i don't think I'm the expert, so speak up with other opinions and it will be more fun!!!

[fantic]

I'm not an expert either just for fun;

last season's ranking on the similar date;

1
Northwestern University
88.03
1
2
Univ. of Georgia
76.20
2
3
Baylor University
72.84
4
4
Univ. of Notre Dame
70.51
3
5
Duke University
69.75
9
6
Univ. of Miami (Florida)
68.31
5
7
Georgia Tech
67.47
6
8
California
66.21
8
9
Univ. of Southern California
62.99
7
10
Stanford
56.12
10
11
UCLA
56.01
12
12
Clemson University
55.29
11
13
University of Tennessee
51.04
13
14
Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville
44.54
15
15
Fresno State
44.27
14
16
Louisiana State University
40.97
24
17
Vanderbilt University
40.40
19
18
Florida State University
40.02
17
19
North Carolina
39.17
18
20
University of Michigan
37.32
23
21
University of Florida
37.06
16

UF managed to jump to 15 at the end of April. So anything can happen.

Now I don't think top 8? teams need to worry about that much. But PAC-10 teams, for example..

8. UCLA, 11. STAN 12. CAL 17. USC 21. ASU 25. UW

Pretty tight.

Even those 3 top teams canNOT afford to lose a single match..which is why UW & ASU matches are so

important..I don't think that UW can upset STAN & CAL, IMHO, but who knows..

and of course CAL; STAN , USC ; UCLA would matter MOST.

I thought the top teams last year would suffer due to graduations, but actually

the ranking didn't change much.

Credit to those teams..Baylor & UF doing well was to be expected (no losses

from last year)...and ND, despite the loss of Kelcy Tefft still #6..amazing..

The biggest change is of course UNC and MICH, and to the lesser extent FSU,

at the expense of GT, USC, ARK, LSU, Fresno St..but we'll see.

[gouci]

Originally Posted by 2nd_serve

Here is my view of the important matches that can change the top 16 seeds and regional locations.

A big piece of the puzzle that's been left out are the potential matches teams will play in their conference tournaments.

[gouci]

I'll do an multi-part analysis.

1. Baylor
best wins = #2 UNC, #6 ND, #8 UCLA, #10 Miami, #13 FSU, #17 USC twice

2. North Carolina
#1 Baylor, #5 NW, #6 ND, #7 Duke twice

3. Michigan
#1 Baylor, #5 NW, #9 Clemson, #10 Miami

4. Florida
#2 UNC, #3 Michigan, #7 Duke, #13 FSU

5. Northwestern
#2 UNC, #4 FL, #12 Cal, #13 FSU

6. Notre Dame
#3 Michigan, #5 NW, #16 TN, #20 GT

7. Duke
#3 Michigan, #5 NW, #6 ND, #17 USC

8. UCLA
#4 FL, #10 Miami, #11 Stanford, #12 Cal

9. Clemson
#13 FSU, #14 Georgia, #15 SC, #18 Mississippi

10. Miami
#9 Clemson, #13 FSU, #14 GA, #20 GT

11. Stanford - 55.35 pts.
#8 UCLA, #12 Cal, #21 ASU, #27 Texas

12. Cal - 51.81 pts.
#8 UCLA, #17 USC twice, #20 GT, #21 ASU


So looking at their best 4 wins and their computer points the 12 teams above are LOCKS to host an NCAA regional.

Since these teams are already locks no need for me to look at their remaining schedule.

[fantic]

reah, right, ranking points..

12 51.81 California 11
13 44.77 Florida State University 17
14 40.09 University of Georgia 13
15 39.64 University of South Carolina 19
16 37.70 University of Tennessee 14
17 35.29 University of Southern California 18
18 35.28 University of Mississippi 35
19 34.59 University of South Florida 15
20 34.04 Georgia Tech 20
21 32.66 Arizona State University 16
22 32.01 Univ. of Iowa 26

it's scary

April 9

South Carolina v. Georgia
Notre Dame v. South Florida 3 pm ET

April 10

Duke v. Georgia Tech. 12 pm
UCLA v. ASU 12 pm PT

April 11
Florida v. Georgia 1 pm ET
South Carolina v. Tennessee 1 pm

April 16
UCLA v. USC 12 pm PT

April 17

FSU v. Duke 1 pm
Georgia v. Tennessee
South Carolina v. Florida

April 18

UNC v. FSU 1 pm.

For Georgia and USC, a win against Florida would be tremendous..

Hell, Tennessee schedule; remaining matches against Florida, USC, UGA..

is Pluskota injured? why is she not playing..(the same to Petukhova of FSU)

[johnnytennis]

Originally Posted by gouci

I'll do an multi-part analysis.

1. Baylor
best wins = #2 UNC, #6 ND, #8 UCLA, #10 Miami, #13 FSU, #17 USC twice

2. North Carolina
#1 Baylor, #5 NW, #6 ND, #7 Duke twice

3. Michigan
#1 Baylor, #5 NW, #9 Clemson, #10 Miami

4. Florida
#2 UNC, #3 Michigan, #7 Duke, #13 FSU

5. Northwestern
#2 UNC, #4 FL, #12 Cal, #13 FSU

6. Notre Dame
#3 Michigan, #5 NW, #16 TN, #20 GT

7. Duke
#3 Michigan, #5 NW, #6 ND, #17 USC

8. UCLA
#4 FL, #10 Miami, #11 Stanford, #12 Cal

9. Clemson
#13 FSU, #14 Georgia, #15 SC, #18 Mississippi

10. Miami
#9 Clemson, #13 FSU, #14 GA, #20 GT

11. Stanford - 55.35 pts.
#8 UCLA, #12 Cal, #21 ASU, #27 Texas

12. Cal - 51.81 pts.
#8 UCLA, #17 USC twice, #20 GT, #21 ASU


So looking at their best 4 wins and their computer points the 12 teams above are LOCKS to host an NCAA regional.

Since these teams are already locks no need for me to look at their remaining schedule.

Gouci, I did a similar analysis the other day for a different reason. The top ten teams before this last ranking came out seemed odd to me so I wanted to see what teams had the most top ten wins, which is the most important in my mind going into the NCAA's. As your analysis proves here, its the top three ranked teams this week that all have won four times and now NC five after beating Duke tonight. I also looked at who had the most top 25 wins and the results were all similar.

[gouci]

I looked at the remaining schedule and computer points of the teams on the bubble for hosting a regional.

Below is the analysis and the conclusion is on the following post.


SEC tournament seed projections

1. Florida 11-0
2. Georgia 9-2
3. South Carolina 8-3
4. Mississippi 8-3
5. Tennessee 6-5
6. Arkansas 6-5
7. Vanderbilt 6-6


14. Florida St. - 39.17 pts.
best wins = #10 Duke, #16 TN, #30 OSU, #32 NC St., #36 IL, #40 Virginia twice
to play = #7 Duke 4/17, #2 UNC 4/18, ACC QF #10 Duke 4/23, ACC SF #1 UNC 4/24

15. Georgia - 38.71 pts.
#13 FSU, #15 SC, #19 USF, #23 AK, #31 Vanderbilt
to play = #15 SC, #4 FL, #16 TN, SEC QF #16 SC 4/23

16. South Carolina - 35.65 pts.
#15 GA, #18 MS, #19 USF, #23 AK, #31 Vanderbilt, #36 IL
to play = #14 GA, #16 TN, #4 FL 4/17, SEC QF #15 GA 4/23, SEC SF #3 FL 4/24

13. Tennessee - 45.70 pts.
#13 FSU, #14 GA, #15 SC, #17 MS, #19 USF, #23 AK, #29 Vanderbilt twice
to play = #4 FL, #15 SC, #14 GA, SEC QF #29 Vandy 4/23, SEC SF #17 MS 4/24, SEC F #3 FL 4/25

18. USC - 35.25 pts.
#9 Clemson, #25 WA, #33 LBS, #54 Pepperdine
to play = #21 ASU, #8 UCLA, #10 Stanford 4/21

17. Mississippi - 35.57 pts.
#14 GA, #16 TN, #25 AK, #31 Vanderbilt, #36 IL
to play = SEC QF #25 AK 4/23, SEC SF #13 TN 4/24

24. South Florida - 34.59 pts.
#13 FSU, #32 NC St., #41 TX A&M, #42 Rice
to play = #6 ND, Big East SF #30 DePaul 4/24

20. Georgia Tech - 31.54 pts.
#1 UNC, #8 Clemson, #10 Duke, #11 Miami, #14 GA, #21 ASU, #31 Vandy, #32 NC St.
to play = #7 Duke, #2 UNC, #31 Virginia, ACC QF #11 Miami 4/23, ACC SF #8 Clemson 4/24, ACC F #1 UNC 4/25

23. Arizona St. - 32.66 pts.
#12 Cal, #17 USC, #25 WA
to play = #17 USC, #8 UCLA, #56 AZ

.

[gouci]

Here is how I handicap the remaining teams and their chances to host a regional.


Most likely to host regional

1. #14 Georgia

- Needs 1 win over either #15 South Carolina, #16 Tennessee or #18 Mississippi to lock up a regional.


2. Winner of #15 South Carolina at #16 Tennessee


3. Winner of SEC Tournament #4 vs #5 seed

- Likely #18 Mississippi vs #16 Tennessee.


4. Winner of #21 Arizona St. at #17 USC


Chance to host

#13 Florida St. = Would have to upset one from either #2 UNC, #7 Duke or #9 Clemson.

#19 South Florida = Would have to upset both #6 Notre Dame and #26 DePaul.

#20 Georgia Tech = Would have to upset one from either #2 UNC, #7 Duke or #9 Clemson.


Conclusion

In my opinion SEC teams will host 3 of the last 4 regionals. The SEC teams in position to host regionals will play each other with the winner receiving enough of a rankings boost to secure hosting a regional.

The Pac 10 in my humble opinion is in position to claim the final regional.


Key Matches

Fri. 4/9 = #15 South Carolina at #14 Georgia

Fri. 4/9 = #21 Arizona St. at #17 USC

Sun. 4/11 = #15 South Carolina at #16 Tennessee

Sat. 4/17 = #16 Tennessee at #14 Georgia

Fri. 4/23 = SEC Tournament #4 vs #5 seed
.

[Embittered]

All this is beyond my ken, of course, so I'll pick up on a side issue.

Originally Posted by gouci

Most likely to host regional

Most likely to be top seeds in a regional, certainly, but is the region necessarily their own?

Here's the link 2nd_serve gave a day or two ago.

Originally Posted by 2nd_serve

Here is a link to the official memorandum that explains the site selection process.

Bylaw 31.1.3 prescribes the five primary criteria in site selection:
 Quality and availability of facility and other necessary accommodations;
 Revenue potential;
 Attendance history and potential;
 Geographical location; and
 Championships operating costs.

As I read it, ranking is only one part of one of five criteria used to select the hosts.

[2nd_serve]

Originally Posted by gouci

I'll do an multi-part analysis.




So looking at their best 4 wins and their computer points the 12 teams above are LOCKS to host an NCAA regional.

Since these teams are already locks no need for me to look at their remaining schedule.

Excellent analysis you make, but I would respond that these last days of regular season and Divisional playoffs are going to help decide seeds, and being seeded right in top 4 or 8 can be a big difference than a 9-16 etc.

[2nd_serve]

Duke lost to Georgia Tech and Clemson, how much will this effect the seeding.

[2nd_serve]

1 81.71 North Carolina 2
2 80.90 Baylor University 1
3 76.08 University of Florida 4
4 72.00 University of Michigan 3
5 67.61 University of Notre Dame 6
6 64.02 Duke University 7
7 63.85 UCLA 8
8 63.50 Clemson University 9
9 61.81 Northwestern University 5
10 56.15 Stanford 11
11 54.76 University of Miami (Florida) 10
12 52.77 California 12
13 43.30 University of Georgia 14
14 40.59 University of Tennessee 16
15 39.98 Florida State University 13
16 37.77 University of Southern California 17
17 36.04 University of Mississippi 18
18 35.42 University of South Carolina 15
19 32.51 University of South Florida 19
20 32.48 University of Texas at Austin 27

[gouci]

Taking a quick look here are other locks for the NCAA at-large.


(ranking)(team)(# wins vs top 60)-(# win vs top 61-75)

Locks

29. Vanderbilt 4-5
26. Virginia 5-1
33. Princeton 7-2
32. Ohio St. 5-1
36. Texas A&M 3-3
35. Tulsa 6-2
34. UNLV 3-4

46. North Carolina St. 3-2-1 16.69 pts. -4
wins = 32 Princeton, 53 FIU, 51 WF, 66 Winthrop, 65 CofC, VA Tech
plays ACC 1R #53 WF 4/22

42. Indiana 3-1-0 18.16 pts. -1
wins = 14 TN, 49 Purdue, 51 WF, 71 Minn.
plays Big10 QF #26 Iowa 4/30

38. St. Mary's 4-3-0 20.91 pts. -12
wins = 44 Pepp., 44 Pepp., 45 LBS, 54 Sac. St., 63 Cal Poly, 70 USD, 69 UCI
plays WCC F #44 Pepperdine 4/25

45. Long Beach St. 1-6-0 16.80 pts. +3
wins = 36 NE, 63 Cal Poly, 63 CP, 71 Minn., 69 UCI, 74 NV, 67 SDSU
plays #63 Cal Poly 5/1, #69 UCI 5/2


Bubble teams = 5

48. Rice 4-2-0 16.16 pts. +20
wins = 24 VCU, 25 AR, 50 AZ, 75 TX Tech, 62 LSU, 60 N. TX
plays CUSA SF #35 Tulsa 4/24

40. Utah 3-3-1 18.71 pts. +17
wins = 23 DePaul, 33 UNLV, 50 AZ, 64 TCU, 73 BYU, 67 SDSU, Wichita St.
plays #77 TCU 4/18, MWC SF #67 SDSU 4/30

47. Yale 6-0-0 16.43 pts. +1 = lock 4/16 with win over #53 Dartmouth
wins = 41 Harvard, 51 WF, 56 W&M, 57 Dartmouth, 57 Dartmouth, #59 Brown
plays #53 Dartmouth 4/16, #56 Harvard 4/18, #58 Brown 4/24

44. Pepperdine 3-4-0 17.44 pts. -9 = lock 4/16 with win over #40 LBS
wins = 33 UNLV, 45 LBS, 48 Rice, 63 Cal Poly, 70 USD, 70 USD, 67 SDSU
plays #40 LBS 4/16, WCC SF #62 SD 4/24, WCC F #38 SMC 4/25

41. Harvard 5-1-0 18.37 pts. -2 = lock 4/21 with win over #56 Dartmouth
wins = 32 Princeton, 38 SMC, 47 Yale, 57 Dart., 59 Brown, 74 NV
plays #62 Brown 4/16, #46 Yale 4/18, #56 Dart. 4/21


Long shots

39. Oklahoma 3-4-1 19.86 pts. +2
wins = 34 Tulsa, 58 OK St., 68 AL, 65 CoC, 72 CO, 75 TX Tech, Wichita St., 60 N. TX
plays #59 OK St. 4/14, #49 Nebraska 4/23, B12 QF #36 TX A&M 4/30

43. Boise St. 1-5-0 17.57 pts. -17
wins = 40 UT, 70 USD, 72 CO, 69 UCI, 73 BYU, 74 NV
plays WAC F Fresno St. 5/2

53. FIU 4-0-1 12.78 pts. +11 = eliminated 4/11 with MS St. & North TX falling out of rankings
wins = 31 SMU, 47 Yale, 59 Brown, MS St., 60 North TX
plays SBC F North TX 4/25

49. Purdue 2-1-0 14.71 pts. -4 = eliminated 4/23 with loss to #28 Iowa
wins = 35 OSU, 41 Harvard, 71 Minn.
plays #28 Iowa 4/23, #66 Minn. 4/25, B10 QF #21 Illinois 4/30

36. Nebraska 3-4-1 23.48 pts. -18 = lock 4/24 with win over #57 OKlahoma St.
wins = 37 TA&M, #39 OK, #58 OK St., 71 MN, 72 CO, 69 UCI, 75 TX Tech, Wichita St.
plays #34 TX A&M 4/16, #37 OK 4/23, #57 OK St. 4/24, B12 QF #75 TX Tech 4/30, B12 SF #18 Texas 5/1

50. Wake Forest 2-1 = eliminated 4/ll with loss to #31 Virginia

59. Oklahoma St. 1-2 = eliminated 4/14 with loss to #43 Oklahoma
plays #43 OK 4/14, #49 NE 4/24

75. San Diego St. 2-3-0 5.76 pts. = eliminated 4/16 with loss to Wyoming
wins = 38 SMC, 40 Utah, 70 USD, 64 TCU, 73 BYU
plays #66 USD 4/19, MWC QF #73 BYU 4/29, MWC SF #40 Utah 4/30, MWC F #64 TCU 5/1

77. TCU 2-2-2 = eliminated 4/18 with loss to #42 Utah
plays BYU 4/17, #42 Utah 4/18, MWC QF Wyoming 4/29, MWC SF #33 UNLV 4/30, MWC F #67 SDSU 5/1

.

[gouci]

I added both San Diego St. and TCU as long shots for an NCAA at-large based on their remaining schedule.


Long Shots

75. San Diego St. 1-1

- Still plays #66 San Diego and possibly #36 UNLV, #42 Utah or TCU in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

77. TCU 1-2

- Still plays #42 Utah and possibly #75 San Diego St. or #36 UNLV in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

.

[gouci]

I went ahead and looked at the data for the teams ranked #51 to #77 just to be thorough. I added #56 Harvard as a bubble team and #59 Oklahoma State as a long shot based on their remaining schedule.

Adding #56 Harvard as a bubble team should be proof I don't just look at the current rankings and assume a team will hold their ground but I make projections based on analyzing data.


Bubble Teams

56. Harvard 2-1

- Still plays #46 Yale, #53 Dartmouth and #62 Brown.


Long Shots

59. Oklahoma State 1-2

- Still plays #43 Oklahoma and #49 Nebraska.


Eliminated

50. Wake Forest 2-1

- Wake Forest was eliminated from NCAA At-large contention with their loss to #31 Virgina on 4/11.