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Old Feb 20th, 2013, 07:33 AM   #1141
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

All of the stats have been like that in Dubai (or at least, also Woz-Safarova and Errani-Goerges); I think it's something to do with the bookkeeping that's leading to these low winner-high UE rates.
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Old Feb 20th, 2013, 07:39 AM   #1142
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

You're right, the stats have been suspect in general. There's been a whole thread devoted to the "fact" that Sara Errani hit zero winners in 2 sets in her match against Goerges. Apart from the point that there's more to playing well than hitting winners, you'd have to wonder whether those stats are right s well.

The betting angle didn't occur to me, but now that you mention it, it sounds pretty plausible. Much easier to slip the guy who records these stats a few bucks than to bribe a player to throw a match, and betters are just as happy to win by betting on UEs and winners as by predicting match outcomes.

Edit: I misread your post, thought you wrote bookmaking, not bookkeeping

Still, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if betting syndicates are behind it.
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Old Feb 20th, 2013, 07:55 AM   #1143
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

Quote:
Originally Posted by stromatolite View Post
The betting angle didn't occur to me, but now that you mention it, it sounds pretty plausible. Much easier to slip the guy who records these stats a few bucks than to bribe a player to throw a match, and betters are just as happy to win by betting on UEs and winners as by predicting match outcomes.

Edit: I misread your post, thought you wrote bookmaking, not bookkeeping

Still, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if betting syndicates are behind it.
Don't worry, I have a bad habit of being vague and assuming that people can read my mind when I write

I think the "bookmaking" scenario would be more likely if it was only one match where the stats seemed skewed, or if there were some normal looking matches followed by weird-psycho stats.

Given that it seems to be affecting every match, I think there's something systematic about the way the stats are being recorded. There was a good post by bobito in GM awhile ago about all of the ambiguities in deciding what counts as an UE and what counts as a winner. For some reason, the organisers in Dubai seem to have decided to cast the matches in the worst possible light
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Old Feb 20th, 2013, 08:07 AM   #1144
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

^You're probably right. I don't usually go in for these conspiracy scenarios, but when it comes to betting I wouldn't rule anything out. But now that I think of it, most bookies would probably refuse to take bets on match stats like these, precisely because they would be so easy to manipulate.

Do you maybe have a link to Bobito's post?
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Old Feb 20th, 2013, 08:36 AM   #1145
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

This is the original post from bobito: http://www.tennisforum.com/showpost....&postcount=116

And then this thread was sort of a response to it, I think: http://www.tennisforum.com/showthrea...ors+statistics

The discussion seems to be more about distinguishing between errors/forced errors though, which wouldn't explain the low winner counts. I was wondering if they were putting winners from the net into the net points won category, and not into the winners category as well. Not sure what else could be contributing to it ...
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Old Feb 20th, 2013, 09:15 AM   #1146
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

Quote:
Originally Posted by SilverPersian View Post
This is the original post from bobito: http://www.tennisforum.com/showpost....&postcount=116

And then this thread was sort of a response to it, I think: http://www.tennisforum.com/showthrea...ors+statistics

The discussion seems to be more about distinguishing between errors/forced errors though, which wouldn't explain the low winner counts. I was wondering if they were putting winners from the net into the net points won category, and not into the winners category as well. Not sure what else could be contributing to it ...
Thanks!

On the face of it, it would be harder to make a mistake on a winner than on an (un)forced error, but that doesn't mean that winner stats aren't misleading as well. In principle I believe that any shot that goes over the net, lands in, and is not touched by the opponent's racquet would be counted as a winner. So that would include aces, winners at the net, etc., but also complete mishits that fly over the opponent's head and land in the back corner of the court.

And forced errors, which are only different from winners in that the player got a racquet on the ball, are recorded but almost never put into the final stats table, which skews things badly when players force a lot of errors out of their opponent like Sam did yesterday (she probably forces more errors than winners in most matches she plays, because of her heavy spin that most players find hard to control).

I also think that it frequently happens that the person keeping track of these things is not 100% on the ball and just fudges the stats to some extent.

This is why Federer often gets pissed when journo's start talking about match stats in post match interviews. The stats rarely give a good picture of what happened in a match.
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Old Feb 20th, 2013, 09:26 AM   #1147
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

Those stats seem right to me actually given the match. Maybe a bit harsh on the errors, yes but I prefer that instead of having it too easy on them
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Old Feb 23rd, 2013, 11:19 AM   #1148
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Dellacqua v KaPliskova
Rogowska v Q
Barty v Q

Q: Adamczak v Buryachok

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Old Feb 23rd, 2013, 11:27 AM   #1149
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

^Arina is in qualies too.

Good luck girls!
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Old Feb 24th, 2013, 04:50 AM   #1150
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

Doubles Draw
(1)Husarova/Zhang v Chan Chin-Wei/Lertcheewakarn
Domachowska/Rosolska v Hsieh Shu-Ying/Kao
(4)Fujiwara/Zheng v (wc)Chua/Yang
Kumkhum/Sema v Kichenok/Kichenok

Pliskova/Pliskova v Beygelzimer/Rogowska
(wc)Nabila/Selvarajoo v (3)Buryachok/Chan Hao-Ching
Adamczak/Wongteanchai v Amanmuradova/Rodionova
Brianti/Klepac v (2)Aoyama/Chang

-
no Barty/Dellacqua
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Old Feb 24th, 2013, 04:51 AM   #1151
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

Arina Rodionova defeated Hao-Ching Chan 62 60
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Old Feb 24th, 2013, 08:47 AM   #1152
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Why would Dellacqua/Barty not play here!?!? To continue their form & clean up this title. It will be rare that they're at the same tournaments thru out the year. Ridiculous.


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Old Feb 25th, 2013, 04:00 AM   #1153
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

Kuala Lumpur Q1:

[4]Adamczak def. Buryachok (UKR) 7-6 2-6 6-4

Was a tough one - she had a big comeback to win the 1st set. Also served for the match at 5-3 in the 3rd but ended up breaking serve to win.

Now has to back it up and play Luangnam who fortunately also had quite a long match.

Arina is on court against Kumkhum and down in the 1st.
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Old Feb 25th, 2013, 04:26 AM   #1154
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

Think Monique was lucky to scrape though, she won fewer points and won when IB served a double fault! Still a wins a win! Next match will be tougher.
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Old Feb 25th, 2013, 06:29 AM   #1155
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Re: Aussies in WTA events

Hopefully she can back up well, raining at the moment so a longer break for her!
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