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Old Feb 19th, 2010, 09:00 PM   #31
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

the stars of last season & their current ranking;

Z(34), Marand(41), Chifchieva(59), Boonstra(80), Marks(88), McKenna(97), Nze(104)
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Old Feb 19th, 2010, 10:18 PM   #32
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

Quote:
Originally Posted by fantic View Post
the stars of last season & their current ranking;

Z(34), Marand(41), Chifchieva(59), Boonstra(80), Marks(88), McKenna(97), Nze(104)
The individual rankings are really insignificant right now. When they start computerizing the numbers the first week of March, you will then see a more reliable ranking. Right now, you have 12 people deciding who and where people should be ranked.
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Old Feb 19th, 2010, 10:32 PM   #33
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

Are the ones with an average of 5 the undefeated ones? (Average of what, by the way?) So at this early stage in the season, there's only one undefeated player, the delightfully lower case julia allen. My unreliable recollection is that there were half a dozen this time last year...

Oh. I think I see it. I must be thinking of later last year. I guess there's a minimum number of matches you have to play to get a ranking. ms. allen, if she keeps her record intact, will probably be joined by others in the next ranking lists.

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Old Feb 19th, 2010, 11:19 PM   #34
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

Of course, it's a bit unreal that their ranking is so low
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Old Feb 22nd, 2010, 01:53 PM   #35
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

Here's a quick look (well, maybe not so quick) at the teams ranked #50-#75 with losing records. Maybe some times beating a ranked team isn't a sign that you belong in the rankings but that the team that is in the rankings doesn't belong there.

#75 East Tenn State - 2-2 record - 0 ranked wins
#74 Denver - 3-7 - 0 ranked wins - Denver is a cause of a lot of mess below because they debuted at #49 in January despite losing their top two players and their coach from last year

#72 Utah - 3-5 - 1 ranked win - See Denver above
#70 LSU - 2-4 - 0 ranked wins
#69 BYU - 3-4 - 1 ranked win - See Denver above
#67 Wake Forest - 3-5 - 0 ranked wins - 5 losses are to top 40 teams
#56 San Diego - 4-5 - 1 ranked win - See LSU above
#54 Kentucky - 1-7 - 1 ranked win over Alabama who is 4-3 with a single ranked win over Oregon who is #73 and has no ranked wins
#51 Irvine - 3-3 - 1 ranked win over #60

Other noteworthy records,
#68 Old Dominion - 7-4 - 1 ranked win - See Denver above
#64 NC State - 3-2 - 1 ranked win - See ODU which means See Denver
#62 Miss State - 4-1 - 0 ranked wins - beat Georgia State which was as high as #51
#61 Virginia Tech - 4-3 - 1 ranked win - See East Tenn State above
#60 San Diego State - 4-3 - 0 ranked wins BUT close losses to #46/#51
#58 Winthrop - 3-2 - 1 ranked win - See ODU which means See Denver

Comment with whatever conclusions you want to make.

Some teams in this list definitely belong where they are, but some probably don't. Last year's results and name recognition can only go so far, and then the trickle down effect with school's like Denver, Kentucky, and LSU will be significant because wins over them may not count for much unless they start winning.
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Old Feb 22nd, 2010, 04:54 PM   #36
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

Tenniswish welcome to the board.
A very nice attempt for a 1st post as a newbie but it needs a little work.

1. Why would you group East TN St. and UC Irvine with teams of "losing records" when 0.500 is not a losing record?
Quote:
...teams ranked #50-#75 with losing records.

2. You understated Denver's situation. In addition to losing their top two players and their coach Denver also lost their #5 & #6 singles. That's 4 starters lost from last season's line-up not just 2.


3. You didn't mention Kentucky only has 5 players on scholarship and is playing with a walk-on at #6. Or Alabama is playing with 2 starters out including #1 Tiffany Welcher.


4. The problem I have with your list is that this early in the season a team's winning percentage is kind of irrelevant.

Ex. #51 UCI lost to #4 UCLA, #9 USC & #46 Long Beach St. all on the road & all to teams ranked above them. So you almost slander UCI as a team that doesn't belong where they're ranked by including them on your list of teams with losing records which UCI doesn't even have.

What is relevant and what you should have focused on are ranked teams with bad losses.

Ex. You left out the biggest offender which is #41 Fresno St. which has a 0-5 record and lost to teams under them in #43 St. Mary's and #50 UNLV.

What could have made your post better was looking deeper and weeding out some of the teams like UCI & East TN St. that didn't belong on your list because they really didn't have any "bad losses."

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Old Feb 22nd, 2010, 08:24 PM   #37
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

Gouci -

Thanks for the comments back.

1) You are absolutely right about the .500 versus losing record comment. I did a late addition of the .500 teams and didn't catch what I had written earlier. My fault.

2) Certainly no intention of slandering UCI which is pretty well placed with a win over #60 - note how that is mentioned and is a much more positive comment than just about any other. I also specifically said, "Some teams in this list definitely belong where they are," and that would almost certainly include UCI. The notes next to UCI and next to San Diego State were intended to suggest that they were well placed. I just included them for full disclosure - almost as a comparison of what a team that belongs has done compared to some teams that may not have the resume to be included.

3) East Tennessee State is an interesting case and one that got included when I decided to add in the .500 teams as well. They are certainly very good, but I would guess they only jumped into the rankings because of their win over Georgia State not because of close losses. That win doesn't seem so incredible any more. I agree that they are certainly not horribly placed. Actually, they are a team that is probably hurt by the lack of information being considered because they could be much higher because of the quality play they have shown in losses against top teams - a 4-3 loss to Tennessee (#10)and a 5-2 loss to Virginia Tech (#61). Their performance to date seems better to me than several teams listed.

Finally, I didn't really go higher than #50 because I wasn't really looking for teams that are a little misplaced or in the wrong order but more for teams that maybe shouldn't be in the rankings at all. There has been so little movement in and out of the rankings since last year's final results (which is an odd place to start from) even though there is plenty of information to be considered that would make for some more significant changes than we've seen to date.

For example, if the rankings in January had accurately taken into account Denver's decline, then several of the teams that moved into the rankings because of wins that were over Denver or a Denver opponent probably wouldn't be there now. An interesting question would be who would be there instead???

There seems to be too much protection to losing to each other for the teams in the rankings. In a top 25 basketball, football or soccer ranking, a loss by #24 to #15 pretty much always means dropping out of the rankings. By comparison, here you can get teams that are 1-7, 3-7 or even 0-5 and are having their rankings barely dented. I think that will change when the computer kicks in because the average that gets you #65 in the country will take a hit regardless of the ranking of someone to whom you lose.
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Old Feb 22nd, 2010, 09:01 PM   #38
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tenniswish View Post
Gouci -

Thanks for the comments back.

1) You are absolutely right about the .500 versus losing record comment. I did a late addition of the .500 teams and didn't catch what I had written earlier. My fault.

2) Certainly no intention of slandering UCI which is pretty well placed with a win over #60 - note how that is mentioned and is a much more positive comment than just about any other. I also specifically said, "Some teams in this list definitely belong where they are," and that would almost certainly include UCI. The notes next to UCI and next to San Diego State were intended to suggest that they were well placed. I just included them for full disclosure - almost as a comparison of what a team that belongs has done compared to some teams that may not have the resume to be included.

3) East Tennessee State is an interesting case and one that got included when I decided to add in the .500 teams as well. They are certainly very good, but I would guess they only jumped into the rankings because of their win over Georgia State not because of close losses. That win doesn't seem so incredible any more. I agree that they are certainly not horribly placed. Actually, they are a team that is probably hurt by the lack of information being considered because they could be much higher because of the quality play they have shown in losses against top teams - a 4-3 loss to Tennessee (#10)and a 5-2 loss to Virginia Tech (#61). Their performance to date seems better to me than several teams listed.

Finally, I didn't really go higher than #50 because I wasn't really looking for teams that are a little misplaced or in the wrong order but more for teams that maybe shouldn't be in the rankings at all. There has been so little movement in and out of the rankings since last year's final results (which is an odd place to start from) even though there is plenty of information to be considered that would make for some more significant changes than we've seen to date.

For example, if the rankings in January had accurately taken into account Denver's decline, then several of the teams that moved into the rankings because of wins that were over Denver or a Denver opponent probably wouldn't be there now. An interesting question would be who would be there instead???

There seems to be too much protection to losing to each other for the teams in the rankings. In a top 25 basketball, football or soccer ranking, a loss by #24 to #15 pretty much always means dropping out of the rankings. By comparison, here you can get teams that are 1-7, 3-7 or even 0-5 and are having their rankings barely dented. I think that will change when the computer kicks in because the average that gets you #65 in the country will take a hit regardless of the ranking of someone to whom you lose.
As mentioned last week, the rankings are still done
by committee through February. I believe they are computerized on the March 2nd rankings when they will be a lot more accurate. A team like Kentucky with a record of 1-7 has no bussiness being ranked no matter how few scholarship athletes they have on the team. When you open in January ranked 28th, it takes awhile for them to drop you out.
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Old Feb 23rd, 2010, 12:13 AM   #39
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

In the past the problem I've had with the rankings is there's a lag of 1 week before the latest results take effect. I don't know why they don't just run it through the computer twice to eliminate that 1 week lag. Does it cost money for the computer to run through an extra cycle?

The bottom line is the only rankings that really count are the ones the selection committee uses to determine the at-larges and seedings for the NCAA tournament.

IMHO the tennis rankings used to determine the NCAA field are the most accurate and better than the rpi rankings for basketball, baseball, women's volleyball or the BCS standings in football. All those other college sports have lots of complaints and debates about their at-large selections and who got screwed but that's not an issue in tennis.

Last edited by gouci : Feb 23rd, 2010 at 12:28 AM.
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Old Feb 23rd, 2010, 07:09 PM   #40
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

team ranking is out

http://www.itatennis.com/AwardsAndRa...m_Rankings.htm

UNC #1?
ND jumped to 7, (I guess ND winning against NU influenced these 2 rankings. ND swept the upper 3 singles positions..)
Michigan is still AHEAD of UF & USC, STAN,
UM went DOWN,
and I think ASU is underestimated..
and curious about this Ohio St team..
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Old Feb 23rd, 2010, 07:28 PM   #41
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

According to their website Michigan team are having an autograph session after each games this week! (Too bad I'm not there )

And the HC Ronni Bernstein..if they can keep their ranking throughout the season and advance to the NCAA, she might get the coach of the year award..they already made school history by reaching the highest ranking #7 last week..
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Old Feb 24th, 2010, 02:09 AM   #42
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

In the most recent rankings, OSU is definitely ranked too high. In the Big Ten, I predict:

NU
MI
IL
OSU


By the end of the season, my prediction is that's how the final rankings will appear.
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Old Feb 24th, 2010, 01:56 PM   #43
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

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In the most recent rankings, OSU is definitely ranked too high. In the Big Ten, I predict:

NU
MI
IL
OSU


By the end of the season, my prediction is that's how the final rankings will appear.
As someone that follows the Big Ten, I cant disagree with you. Illinois has dropped in the rankings to No. 39 but is really closer to being a top 20 team. This is their best team they've had in many years. They lost a bunch of 4-3 heartbreakers to good teams. The Big Ten in general has really moved up a few notches this year and could become a power conference in Women's tennis.
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Old Feb 24th, 2010, 06:50 PM   #44
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

Johnny - agreed. Also as has been discussed, Michigan will give Northwestern a run for their money this year. I think Illinois will def. OSU (4-3ish) when they play and also believe that Indiana could be a tough match for OSU. IU just defeated Tennessee 6-1, while the Bucks fell to the same (depleted lineup due to injuries) TN team 5-2 a couple days prior. So the top 5 teams in the Big 10 are much improved over 2-4 years ago, that's for sure. I think the top 2 teams (NU and MI) are a step or two ahead of the rest.

Northwestern has a chance to redeem their loss vs Notre Dame this Friday and Sunday vs. Illinois and Georgia Tech. Then, over their spring break, they play both Duke and North Carolina outdoors.....then Michigan and Baylor,etc. Their coach puts together a pretty good schedule......
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Old Feb 24th, 2010, 07:50 PM   #45
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Re: ITA tennis rankings published next week, what do the TF experts say

I know Michigan has a couple tough matches coming up at home. Today against TCU and on Friday against Baylor. If I get back home earlier enough, I might watch some of it as they have streaming video & audio for all their home matches.
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