[Kworb]

In this thread I will reveal the workings of the match simulation program and also any updates to it.

---

Match Simulation v0.2

Relevant stats: SRV, RTN, ATT, DEF, STA

On serve, base point win chance of server [1]: 65%
This is adjusted based on server [1]'s SRV stat and returner [2]'s RTN stat: 65% + (SRV[1] - RTN[2])/2

Point win chances are further adjusted using players' ATT and DEF stats; differences are taken (between both ATTs and both DEFs) and divided by 4.

STA's effect is more complicated. Average point length is calculated using the difference between both players' DEFs and both players' ATTs (more defensive play results in longer rallies). The longer the average point, the faster a player tires.

TRD (tired) is set to 100 at the start of the match for both players. It is increased by (2.5/STA) each stroke. Each point, the point win chance of players is adjusted by the difference between TRD[1] and TRD[2].

So far, STS (status) and PSF (preferred surface) have no effect on gameplay.

---

That's it so far. Criticism, ideas, etc. are always welcome!

[GracefulVenus]

Am I the only one who feels like a dumbass

[ArturoAce.]

^^no

[Kworb]

Example:

Player 1's stats:

Serve: 105
Return: 102
Attack: 103
Defense: 104
Stamina: 100
Tired: 100

Player 2's stats:

Serve: 100
Return: 102
Attack: 103
Defense: 105
Stamina: 104
Tired: 100

Player 1 is serving. Her base chance to win the point is 65%. This is increased by (105-102)/2 = 1.5, so 66.5%. Player 1's combined attack and defense is 207, that of Player 2 is 208. So (207-208)/4 = -0.25 is added to Player 1's point win chance; it becomes 66.25%. So whenever player 1 serves, she has a 66.25% chance to win the point.

Player 2 is serving. Her base chance to win the point is 65%. This is increased by (100-102)/2 = -1, so 64%. Player 2's combined attack and defense is 208, that of Player 2 is 207. So (208-207)/4 = 0.25 is added to Player 2's point win chance; it becomes 64.25%. So whenever player 2 serves, she has a 64.25% chance to win the point.

The formula for average number of strokes per point is: 2 * log(40 - ATT + DEF), where ATT is the players' combined attack stats and DEF their combined defense stats.
Here, it becomes: 2 * log(40 - 206 + 209) = 2 * log(43) = 7.52

Player 1's tiredness is increased by 7.52*(2.5/100) each point. After 100 points, it has been increased by 752*(2.5/100) = 18.8.
Player 2's tiredness is increased by 7.52*(2.5/104) each point. After 100 points, it has been increased by 752*(2.5/104) = 18.08.

So after 100 points, player 1's win chance on serve is decreased by 0.72: 65.53%
And player 2's win chance on serve is increased by 0.72: 65.02%

If player 2 can hold on long enough her chances will eventually be better because of her higher stamina.

[Aaron.]

When the website comes out can you make it live scoring like www.rockingraquets.com?

if u go there it shows u a demo u dont have to register i just wanna show you the livescore they have on their website

[Kworb]

I doubt it, it's a cool feature but not that easy to implement. Maybe in the future if the game gets more popular.

[Kworb]

v0.3

After each point, there is now a 0.005% chance that a player has to retire from the match due to injury.

Surfaces have been implemented in the simulation. They affect point length:

clay: +1 stroke
hard: =
fast: -1 stroke

When a player plays on her favorite surface, she gains +1 to all stats. If she doesn't have a preference, there is a 33% chance she gains +1 to all stats before a match.