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Old Aug 5th, 2012, 05:51 AM   #121
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Here is a small exercise of calculating that has no claim to be scientific. The purpose is trying to analyze the likelihood that Caroline has of reaching the YEC by adding the 2012 Race points to the ranking points earned by her main rivals in 2011, from the U.S. Open Series to the end of the year, excluding the championships points.

Thus, if her main rivals perform in the last tournaments of 2012 the same way they did in 2011, on in a similar way, we can have a good idea of how many ranking points they will have just before the YEC. I know, it's a big if. But it gives an idea.

In the table below, the race include the Olympics points. My data are sometimes a bit differents from the official data. As you know, only 16 tournaments are include into the official ranking, so I excluded the weakest results made by the players in 2011 (those officially excluded by the WTA itself). Keep in mind it usually takes approximately 4000 ranking points to be inside the Top8 at the end of the year. I assume Sharapova, Azarenka, Serena, Radwanska and Kerber will all be in the YEC. 1) because they've been incredibly solids since the beginning of the year. 2) because they already reached the 4000 cap. SO, they're 3 places left for the YEC.

Kvitova, Petra

Sep 11, 2011 US Open GS 5
Oct 1, 2011 Tokyo P5 395
Oct 9, 2011 Beijing PM 5
Oct 16, 2011 Linz INT 280
685
Race 2012 3266
Total 3951

Stosur, Samantha

Aug 14, 2011 Toronto P5 620
Aug 19, 2011 Cincin. P5 225
Sep 11, 2011 US Open GS 2000
Oct 9, 2011 Beijing PM 80
Oct 16, 2011 Osaka INT 200
3125
Race 2012 2723
Total 5848

Errani, Sara

Aug 19, 2011 Cincin. P5 70
Sep 11, 2011 US Open GS 5
Oct 9, 2011 Beijing PM 5
80
Race 2012 3572
Total 3652

Bartoli, Marion

Aug 19, 2011 Cincin. P5 125
Sep 11, 2011 US Open GS 100
Oct 1, 2011 Tokyo P5 225
Oct 9, 2011 Beijing PM 140
Oct 16, 2011 Osaka INT 280
870
Race 2012 2662
Total 3532

Li, Na

Aug 14, 2011 Toronto P5 70
Aug 19, 2011 Cincin. P5 125
Aug 26, 2011 NewHavenP10 200
Sep 11, 2011 US Open GS 5
Oct 9, 2011 Beijing PM 5
405
Race 2012 2472
Total 2877

Ivanovic, Ana

Aug 14, 2011 Toronto P5 125
Aug 19, 2011 Cincin. P5 70
Sep 11, 2011 US Open GS 280
Oct 1, 2011 Tokyo P5 125
Oct 9, 2011 Beijing PM 250
850
Race 2012 1922
Total 2772

Some personnal comments:

Kvitova as done incredibly bad in the last tournaments of 2011. Hard to imagine that she could do worst than that. So, she's somehow assured to make at least 4000 pts. I think she will do a lot better this year, if only by the grace of "weak draws". A quaterfinal, or even a semifinal in the US Open is definitely possible. I'm fairly sure she'll be in the YEC.

Stosur won the US Open. I don't think she'll do it again, but even a quaterfinal there would give her something like 4348. She's unpredictable, so she could do worst than in 2011. She's in a good position, but not in yet.

Errani. She will need only a little 400 pts from now to reach the YEC. However, she only did 80 pts in her last tournaments last year. Can she do better or does her year already over for all practical purposes? I'd say, Caroline has her chances to overcome her.

Bartoli. In her own way, she's faily consistent. I think she would do around the same ranking points than in 2011. Here's a window for Caroline.

Na Li. She's totally unpredictable. She could lose in her first round until the end of the year. Or she could win the US Open. That being said, I think she's a lot better in the beginning of the year than at the end. According by my table, she could find herself below 3000 pts by the YEC. Here's another window for Caroline.

Ivanovic. I think my table adequately shows her potential until the end of the year. Appr. 2800 pts. Caroline should stay ahead of her.

En résumé: Kvitova will must probably be among the last 8, along with Stosur. But it's very likely that Errani, Li and Bartoli fail to reach the 4000 points.

So if Caroline manages to gain between 1800 and 2000 pts by the end of the year, she could end up in the YEC. Chances are still there. Right now she should have 2153 pts, including the Olympics.

Any thoughts?

NB: The table doesn't show as well as I'd like. But I hope you can understand it nonetheless.
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Old Aug 5th, 2012, 08:19 AM   #122
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

I considered doing something similar myself, glad you saved me the trouble.

At her best Caroline is much more consistent than any of the others striving for those three spots at the YEC but Caroline hasn't been at her best for some time. For whatever reason she has always done poorly in Toronto so it is good for her that this year the Rogers Cup is in Montreal. I think it is very important that she has a deep run there and to really establish herself as a threat to win early on. If she can get off to a great start and go deep (quarters/semis) in both Montreal and Cincinnati I think she will have a real shot at the YEC. If she stumbles early at those two events her chances get much worse. We have seen in the past that once she gets on a roll and starts winning that she plays better and better, that's why I believe it is important for her to have a great start.
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Old Aug 5th, 2012, 11:10 AM   #123
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Good work Achernar. But the main thing I get from this is that it's wide open with lots of points available with USO, 1PM and 3P5s and it's all in Caro's hands to reach that 4000 point mark.

I totally agree with you about Petra. Points-wise she's not there. But even if she matched that terrible patch of results she had up to Beijing after which she really played well - she's only just short of 4000. And I really do think she'll do better thaqn in 2011. I don't think she'll exit 1st round at USO for a start.

On Sam - you say even getting to QFs would get her to 4348 - but QFs for Sam? I wouldn't pencil her in as a certainty to get to QF. I definitely think with her that the existing race shows her chances better than your table with her points in 2011.

On your comments on the other girls - I agree with you. But it all boils down to we don't know and there's a ton of points up for grabs and one really deep run at the USO which we can't really predict skews any analysis now and would do wonders for their chances. Also there are other players you haven't mentioned that are around where Caro is in the race - Cibulkova for example.

It's all up to Caro - some good runs at the big WTA tournaments please. I can see possibly one or even two of these players around her having great runs at the USO but I've no idea who. They will then be very big threats.
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Old Aug 5th, 2012, 11:18 AM   #124
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by terjw View Post
Good work Achernar. But the main thing I get from this is that it's wide open with lots of points available with USO, 1PM and 3P5s and it's all in Caro's hands to reach that 4000 point mark.
Agree. There isn't really any need to make complicated what/if calcs for a number of players. History has shown that a tally of around the 4,000 points mark is enough to just make it through as #8.

For Caroline, if she cannot collect about 2,000 points from 1 slam, 1 PM and 3 P5, we just have to acknowledge, she wasn't in good enough form this year
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Old Aug 5th, 2012, 12:35 PM   #125
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

I think Kvitova will be able to get in,she has barely any points to defend. Bartoli is another likely participant because she has already got to a final in Carlsbad and it seems she's doing well on this surface.
The last place is going to be the one to fight for and I think it'll be between Caro and Errani. Caro has got a good record on this surface and a lot of big match experience. On the other hand Sarita is the upset queen and has been very consistent. It'll be very interesting to see who finally makes it. I wish it was both,actually, because they are both very determined and great fighters.
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Old Aug 6th, 2012, 01:11 AM   #126
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by DownInAHole View Post
I considered doing something similar myself, glad you saved me the trouble.
I'm glad I've been helpful

Quote:
Originally Posted by DownInAHole View Post
We have seen in the past that once she gets on a roll and starts winning that she plays better and better, that's why I believe it is important for her to have a great start.
Its true she seems to take confidence from her wins and she often gets better and better when she's on a sequence. Hopefully it's about to happen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by terjw View Post
Good work Achernar. But the main thing I get from this is that it's wide open with lots of points available with USO, 1PM and 3P5s and it's all in Caro's hands to reach that 4000 point mark.

I totally agree with you about Petra. Points-wise she's not there. But even if she matched that terrible patch of results she had up to Beijing after which she really played well - she's only just short of 4000. And I really do think she'll do better thaqn in 2011. I don't think she'll exit 1st round at USO for a start.

On Sam - you say even getting to QFs would get her to 4348 - but QFs for Sam? I wouldn't pencil her in as a certainty to get to QF. I definitely think with her that the existing race shows her chances better than your table with her points in 2011.

On your comments on the other girls - I agree with you. But it all boils down to we don't know and there's a ton of points up for grabs and one really deep run at the USO which we can't really predict skews any analysis now and would do wonders for their chances. Also there are other players you haven't mentioned that are around where Caro is in the race - Cibulkova for example.

It's all up to Caro - some good runs at the big WTA tournaments please. I can see possibly one or even two of these players around her having great runs at the USO but I've no idea who. They will then be very big threats.
You certainly don't give much chance to Stosur for the last part of the year Let's say she's not traditionally known as a terror in the US Open. However, she did well recently in the American slam: quaterfinal in 2010 and the title in 2011. Moreover, she also reached the final in Toronto, the quarter in Cincinnati and the final in Osaka. Clearly, we can't rule her out for the last tournaments. However, I doubt she'll do that well in 2012.

Regarding Cibulkova, I thought I could include her in my table, but I changed my mind since I don't think she'll be able to claim a place in the YEC. At the moment, she has 2099 in the race. In her last tournaments from 2011 she gained 980 pts (including a win in Moscow), which would bring her to 3079 pts.

The real threat could prove to be Clijsters. She may very well go on a rampage, reclaiming the US Open as the climax of her career. It's unlikely, but who knows...

In the end, you sum it all perfectly by saying "It's all up to Caro".

But my table shows that Caroline still has some room to maneuver. If she starts to win regularly again, she could reach the YEC. Go on little Dane
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Old Sep 17th, 2012, 12:00 AM   #127
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Here's a breakdown of Caro's ranking points after the US Open:


Mandatory tournaments

Madrid - 140 points (3rd round)
French Open - 160 points (3rd round)
Wimbledon - 5 points (1st round)
US Open - 5 points (1st round)
Beijing - 250 (quarters)
YEC - 370 points (1-2 round robin)
Australian Open - 500 points (quarterfinal)
Indian Wells - 280 points (4th round)
Miami - 450 points (semifinal)

Best premier 5 tournaments

Tokyo - 125 points (3rd round)
Montreal - 395 points (semi)

Best 5 optional tournaments

Sydney - 120 points (quarters)
Dubai - 200 points (semi)
Copenhagen - 200 points (final!)
Olympics - 175 points (quarters)
New Haven - 200 points (semi)
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Old Sep 17th, 2012, 12:45 AM   #128
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Caro is ranked 11th after the US Open:

Code:
Curr   Prev  Name   DOB   Nation   Rank pts  Tours  
1 1 Azarenka, Victoria 31/07/89 BLR 10265 18 
2 3 Sharapova, Maria 19/04/87 RUS 8435 17 
3 2 Radwanska, Agnieszka 06/03/89 POL 8295 23 
4 4 Williams, Serena 26/09/81 USA 7900 15 
5 5 Kvitova, Petra 08/03/90 CZE 6690 21 
6 6 Kerber, Angelique 18/01/88 GER 5085 22 
7 10 Errani, Sara 29/04/87 ITA 4755 23 
8 8 Li, Na 26/02/82 CHN 4526 17 
9 7 Stosur, Samantha 30/03/84 AUS 4200 22 
10 11 Bartoli, Marion 02/10/84 FRA 3800 28 

11 9 Wozniacki, Caroline 11/07/90 DEN 3440 21
 
12 13 Ivanovic, Ana 06/11/87 SRB 3200 19 
13 14 Cibulkova, Dominika 06/05/89 SVK 3005 28 
14 12 Kirilenko, Maria 25/01/87 RUS 2935 22 
15 19 Vinci, Roberta 18/02/83 ITA 2425 27 
16 15 Kanepi, Kaia 10/06/85 EST 2344 15 
17 17 Safarova, Lucie 04/02/87 CZE 2210 24 
18 22 Petrova, Nadia 08/06/82 RUS 2005 20 
19 16 Zvonareva, Vera 07/09/84 RUS 1875 19 
20 25 Clijsters, Kim 08/06/83 BEL 1865 11 
21 21 Goerges, Julia 02/11/88 GER 1815 26 
22 32 Lepchenko, Varvara 21/05/86 USA 1755 28 
23 28 Zheng, Jie 05/07/83 CHN 1736 24 
24 18 Pennetta, Flavia 25/02/82 ITA 1690 20 
25 27 Jankovic, Jelena 28/02/85 SRB 1681 29 
26 20 Pavlyuchenkova, Anastasia 03/07/91 RUS 1675 24 
27 29 Wickmayer, Yanina 20/10/89 BEL 1675 24 
28 30 Zakopalova, Klara 24/02/82 CZE 1670 25 
29 42 Makarova, Ekaterina 07/06/88 RUS 1637 19 
30 24 McHale, Christina 11/05/92 USA 1625 22 
31 31 Paszek, Tamira 06/12/90 AUT 1603 25 
32 38 Cirstea, Sorana 07/04/90 ROU 1591 28 
33 23 Lisicki, Sabine 22/09/89 GER 1588 19 
34 45 Shvedova, Yaroslava 12/09/87 KAZ 1517 18 
35 41 Hantuchova, Daniela 23/04/83 SVK 1485 24 
36 35 Barthel, Mona 11/07/90 GER 1461 27 
37 26 Schiavone, Francesca 23/06/80 ITA 1441 23 
38 44 Stephens, Sloane 20/03/93 USA 1419 20 
39 36 Medina Garrigues, Anabel 31/07/82 ESP 1385 26 
40 43 Radwanska, Urszula 07/12/90 POL 1385 31 
41 46 Williams, Venus 17/06/80 USA 1370 11 
42 48 Wozniak, Aleksandra 07/09/87 CAN 1370 24 
43 51 Arvidsson, Sofia 16/02/84 SWE 1355 26 
44 40 Scheepers, Chanelle 13/03/84 RSA 1330 26 
45 55 Pironkova, Tsvetana 13/09/87 BUL 1325 22 
46 39 Suarez Navarro, Carla 03/09/88 ESP 1310 26 
47 33 Niculescu, Monica 25/09/87 ROU 1306 19 
48 34 Peng, Shuai 08/01/86 CHN 1305 22 
49 50 Cornet, Alize 22/01/90 FRA 1291 26 
50 53 Halep, Simona 27/09/91 ROU 1225 22

Caro is 14th in points per tournament played among the YEC race top 50 after the US Open. For comparison, Caro was 5th in points per tournament played among the top 50 last year, 4 below her year end ranking of 1. The Wta includes 0 point results in the rankings so I excluded the 0 point results to come up with points per tournament played.

I'll probably look into doing a weighted average of points per tournament at some point. If someone else wants to do that, feel free to do so.

Caro's 16th best result in her "best 16" ranking is 125 points, so Caro has to earn more than that at non-mandatory tournaments in order to increase her ranking points. Results at mandatory tournaments are stuck in Caro's ranking until she plays that tournament again next year.

Caro has won 64% (32-18) of her matches in 2012 as of the end of the US Open.

Caro is 15th in winning % for the year for players ranked inside the top 100 based on Wta level events only. She is 15th if you count only players ranked inside the top 50.


(I corrected the Wta win/loss rankings document that came out after the US Open to be based on winning % as the rankings were sometimes not ordered that way in the original file.)

Code:
STANDING RANK NAME NAT WIN LOSS PERCENT

1 4 SERENA WILLIAMS USA 53 4 92.98
2 1 VICTORIA AZARENKA BLR 54 8 87.10
3 2 MARIA SHARAPOVA RUS 49 8 85.96
4 3 AGNIESZKA RADWANSKA POL 51 15 77.27
5 5 PETRA KVITOVA CZE 44 13 77.19
6 20 KIM CLIJSTERS BEL 20 6 76.92
7 6 ANGELIQUE KERBER GER 56 17 76.71
8 7 SARA ERRANI ITA 52 18 74.29
9 16 KAIA KANEPI EST 20 7 74.07
10 8 NA LI CHN 36 13 73.47
11 41 VENUS WILLIAMS USA 19 9 67.86
12 34 YAROSLAVA SHVEDOVA KAZ 27 13 67.50
13 9 SAMANTHA STOSUR AUS 35 18 66.04
14 12 ANA IVANOVIC SRB 29 16 64.44

15 11 CAROLINE WOZNIACKI DEN 32 18 64.00

16 66 KIKI BERTENS NED 21 12 63.64
17 10 MARION BARTOLI FRA 35 21 62.50
18 29 EKATERINA MAKAROVA RUS 25 15 62.50
19 15 ROBERTA VINCI ITA 38 23 62.30
20 36 MONA BARTHEL GER 33 20 62.26
21 100 JAMIE HAMPTON USA 18 11 62.07
22 14 MARIA KIRILENKO RUS 30 19 61.22
23 18 NADIA PETROVA RUS 27 17 61.36
24 61 SU-WEI HSIEH TPE 22 14 61.11
25 93 CAMILA GIORGI ITA 14 9 60.87
26 94 MELINDA CZINK HUN 29 19 60.42
26 42 ALEKSANDRA WOZNIAK CAN 29 19 60.42
28 22 VARVARA LEPCHENKO USA 35 23 60.34
29 24 FLAVIA PENNETTA ITA 21 14 60.00
30 91 LARA ARRUABARRENA-VECINO ESP 18 12 60.00
31 98 YUNG-JAN CHAN TPE 15 10 60.00
32 57 VANIA KING USA 22 15 59.46
33 49 ALIZE CORNET FRA 26 18 59.09
34 40 URSZULA RADWANSKA POL 30 21 58.82
35 13 DOMINIKA CIBULKOVA SVK 32 23 58.18
36 17 LUCIE SAFAROVA CZE 25 18 58.14
37 63 TIMEA BABOS HUN 22 16 57.89
38 23 JIE ZHENG CHN 24 18 57.14
39 43 SOFIA ARVIDSSON SWE 25 19 56.82
39 58 ANDREA HLAVACKOVA CZE 25 19 56.82
39 30 CHRISTINA MCHALE USA 25 19 56.82
42 27 YANINA WICKMAYER BEL 30 23 56.60
43 99 OLGA PUCHKOVA RUS 13 10 56.52
44 35 DANIELA HANTUCHOVA SVK 22 17 56.41
45 90 SESIL KARATANTCHEVA KAZ 27 21 56.25
45 38 SLOANE STEPHENS USA 27 21 56.25
47 80 CASEY DELLACQUA AUS 18 14 56.25
48 56 SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA RUS 16 13 55.17
48 97 GARBINE MUGURUZA ESP 16 13 55.17
50 72 HEATHER WATSON GBR 22 18 55.00
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Old Sep 18th, 2012, 08:48 AM   #129
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Am I the only one thinking that the word "breakdown" in the thread title has taken on a rather ominous meaning?
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Old Sep 24th, 2012, 10:52 PM   #130
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

^ not alone at all
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Old Oct 3rd, 2012, 02:59 AM   #131
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Its unlikely but IF Caroline wins both China Open and Moscow, can she reach the 8th spot in the Race?
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Old Oct 3rd, 2012, 07:04 AM   #132
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Yes,she can.
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Old Oct 3rd, 2012, 08:25 AM   #133
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jorn View Post
Its unlikely but IF Caroline wins both China Open and Moscow, can she reach the 8th spot in the Race?
If she won both that would put her at 4545 points in the YEC race. Li is at 4416 points after making it to the 4th round in Beijing. If Caro doesn't win both tournaments or Li gets to the semis in Beijing after the YEC) then Caro will not be one of the 8 YEC qualifiers.

If Stosur wins both Osaka and Moscow she would have 4420 points in the YEC race. If she did that then she would definitely be ahead of Caro in the YEC race as the only way Caro could pass that total is by winning both tournaments.
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Last edited by Protoss : Oct 3rd, 2012 at 11:02 AM. Reason: miscalculated Stosur's point total because I forget she had a 1st round bye
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Old Oct 17th, 2012, 01:55 PM   #134
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Bartoli has been beaten in 1R in Moscow. It looks like Caro's chances for top 10 finish are still alive.
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Old Oct 21st, 2012, 02:37 PM   #135
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Re: Caroline's Ranking Breakdown

Caroline's last 4 tournaments (post-US Open):

Seoul: 280 pts
Tokyo: 225
Beijing:140
Moscow:470

Total: 1115 pts

Not bad at all for the last run of the year.
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