[keinimod]

Justine's lead as #1 is still more than safe but has nevertheless been decreasing significantly. From over 3,000 points after Antwerp it's now down to less than 2,000, and it'll continue to get less for at least one more week (see next post).

Today, Justine's 6,105 points are constituted thus:

Mandatory tournaments

Roland Garros	2007	1000
Wimbledon	2007	 450
US Open 	2007	1000
Austr.Open	2008	 250
Miami (mand.)	2008	 125

Best of 12 other tournaments (though she doesn't have 12)

YEC     	2007	 750
Toronto 	2007	 430
Zurich  	2007	 430
Stuttgart	2007	 300
Eastbourne	2007	 275
Sydney	        2008	 275
Antwerp 	2008	 275
Warsaw          2007     275
Berlijn 	2007	 195
Dubai   	2008	  75

All in all 6,105 points.

[keinimod]

But as she doesn't play this week and in this week Warsaw comes off, she'll be at 5,830 points next week:
Mandatory tournaments

Roland Garros	2007	1000
Wimbledon	2007	 450
US Open 	2007	1000
Austr.Open	2008	 250
Miami (mand.)	2008	 125

Best of 12 other tournaments (though she doesn't have 12)

YEC     	2007	 750
Toronto 	2007	 430
Zurich  	2007	 430
Stuttgart	2007	 300
Eastbourne	2007	 275
Sydney	        2008	 275
Antwerp 	2008	 275
Berlijn 	2007	 195
Dubai   	2008	  75

Total : 5,830 points.

Ivanovic didn't play either Warsaw or Estoril last year, so she'll remain at 4,157 points next week with the difference between the two down to 1,673 points.

The #1 spot is not in danger just yet, but the downward trend will have to turn some day soon.

[explorer]

Depending on her performance in Berlin. She's in semi last year, Ivanovic needs to defend her title in Berlin. The plus is Ju will play Rome, she can gain points there. The most important is RG of course.

[j-fan]

Over the next six months, she'll gain points from Berlin, Rome, Wimbledon, and, let's not forget, the Olympics if she can find her machine gun. She'll lose points from Warsaw and Eastbourne.

[vejh]

I can't imagine her playing Berlijn and Rome.

Thanks for the pts breakdown Keinimod.

She has been doing subpar for the first 4 mths of the season (while others have been improving and doing well) so it makes sense that her pts. lead would decrease.

Whereas the total pt. loss is not as dramatic as one would expect from her form and results so far.

[cecilija]

The downward trend is unlikely to turn soon because the first part of the year was her only chance to add to her total.

In the second part of the year she can virtually gain nothing.

So the number one spot is all but gone. I still expect her to regain some pride and form though so that she can end the year in top 5.

[Conor]

Originally Posted by cecilija

The downward trend is unlikely to turn soon because the first part of the year was her only chance to add to her total.

In the second part of the year she can virtually gain nothing.

So the number one spot is all but gone. I still expect her to regain some pride and form though so that she can end the year in top 5.

As ever the voice of optimism!

Justine can still gain points by winning Berlin, Rome and Wimbledon. She may also choose to enter other tournaments post Wimbledon where she could pick up points. Should she defend RG, make at least SF's of Wimbledon and US and defend a few other titles theres no way she could be overhauled in the rankings.

[vejh]

Cecilija, let us not forget that the other competitors actually have to gain alot to overtake Ju and there's quite a few girls defending alot as of the clay court season.

[keinimod]

Originally Posted by cecilija

The downward trend is unlikely to turn soon because the first part of the year was her only chance to add to her total.

In the second part of the year she can virtually gain nothing.

Well, not much, no. But what can one expect. She won the last 5 tournaments she played in 2007 and seven out of the 9 tournaments left to consider. There's no way up from that. Unless you'd expect her to be both winner and runner-up

Originally Posted by cecilija

So the number one spot is all but gone. I still expect her to regain some pride and form though so that she can end the year in top 5.

It's not gone yet. RG will be the big test.

[cecilija]

In theory obviously not, but realistically yes.

To expect her to win Berlin, Rome, RG and Wimbledon in a year where she is yet to reach the semis of a big tournament is a bit too foolish for my liking. Heck, it is nigh on impossible even when she is playing well. She hasn't won Berlin since 2005, she has never won Rome or Wimbledon. And to add some tournaments after W is even less likely. The Olympics are only worth 300 pts or something like that and its only purpose is to tire her out for the USO defence.

She has only accumulated 1000 pts this year out of 6000 that she has. That's just not good enough, especially if you take into account the fact that the other players have improved from last year.

Obviously I would like to be proven wrong and end up eating big, delicious humble pie come July, but I am being realistic here.

[snaily]

Somehow I am less worried about ranking than form in general. It may be even good to lose #1 for a while. Then it would not be the scary pressure to preserve her position and not to lose. Rather she should start climbing back and play to win. It would also make her less of the ONE to beat.

[vejh]

It's going to be tough for everybody from here on out. The #1 chasers (minus Pova)also gained alot of pts at this time last year.

I don't expect Pova to reach the semis of RG again. However Pova underacheived at Wimby and USO so she can gain pts. there. If Pova plays in the Olympics she may also forfeit some BIG pts. she EASILY won in the summer HC events.

Ivanovic gained some big pts winning the tier one and getting to FO finals last year. Can she also repeat?

Janko is really struggling now. She's started off as bad as Ju as (a little better actually).

Someone like a Serena (sorry to bring her name up) may benefit the most. She has been steadily building form and is healthy. But of course she has to play in order to win. So far she's played about half the # of tournies she usually plays for a calender yr. (AO, Bangladore, Miami, Charleston) and she's won all but one of them; beating four of the top 5 players while she's at it.

[j-fan]

Except for Maria in AO and Serena in Miami, none of the top players seem to be in top form. May be they are all conserving energy for the big events coming up.

As for Justine, I think she can hit her form fairly quickly and she should be well rested.

With regard to ranking, I think Ana, Jelena, and Svet are the closest to her but are not real threats this year. More worrisome is Maria and Serena. However, they both have a lot to catch up. My crystal ball, Navaron, said Justine will keep her #1 ranking for 2008 and 2009, which will be her grand slam year.

[Maiden]

It all comes down to her performance on clay. If she doesn't gain points (and confidence) on her favourite surface, I really don't see her as gaining momentum on grass, and it may be difficult to do so on hard as well. I hope she really does play both Berlin and Rome. I believe she can get to Roland Garros feeling fine regardless of the fact she played those two tournaments, since she didn't play a lot this year and she's been off the tour for more than a month. It's necessary to have a good preparation for this Slam, because it's the crucial one for retaining her ranking, considering that Wimbledon is always difficult for her and by the time the US Open comes, she may have slipped down the rankings already.

Maybe she surprises us all and completes a total sweep, just to make fun of us

[vejh]

It would be hilarious should she make a clean sweep.lol.

I don't expect her to gain much points during the clay season however but I do expect her to at least break even. She played and won a tier 11, SF of tier I and FO Champion last year. Now the pt. value has increased for the tournies. This yr. she has basically the same # of clay tournies scheduled except now there are 2 tier 1s and the FO. More pts for the taking and an even better chance to at least break even.