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Old Jun 24th, 2005, 05:39 PM   #1
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Mauresmo Has Outside Chance of Being #1 If She Wins?

Mary Carillo says she has a "very outside" chance IF she wins. I would think she'll need Lindsay and Maria to lose early, though. Maybe bonus points over Lindsay in the semi-finals and Maria in the Final could push her over the top? Maria CAN'T get any more points to add. Lindsay can by getting to the Final and/or winning. Can someone do the math? I'm too lazy...
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Old Jun 24th, 2005, 05:40 PM   #2
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Momo ain't winning and Scary Mary knows it.
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Old Jun 24th, 2005, 05:41 PM   #3
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She doesn't anymore. It would have required Lindsay losing 1r.
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Old Jun 24th, 2005, 05:42 PM   #4
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well as long as she doesnt run into Lena D sure she has a chance ,shes playing well
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Old Jun 24th, 2005, 05:44 PM   #5
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well i hope nobody mentions this to amelie otherwise it's going to be choke central
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Old Jun 24th, 2005, 06:59 PM   #6
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Amelie had a theoretical chance to get to number 1 BEFORE the tournament started.

After the draw was completed, if LD lost in the first round she would finish with 4825 points. Amelie will have 3768 + Wim points, so she would need 1057 points to get to number 1. With LD's 200 quality points not available to her in the semifinals she could only get 1086 at most. So she had a theoretical chance.

But then Lindsay won her first round to push her total up by additional 38 points to eliminate Amelie's chances. Later Domachowska (20 quality points) lost to Sanchez Lorenzo (8), Sprem (30) lost to Tanasugarn (16) who lost to Perry (4). As a result, even if Lindsay had lost in the first round the most Amelie would be able to get is 1086 - (20-8) - (30-4) = 1048 which would not be enough anyway.

So, the most AM can hope for after Wimbledon is #2. QF (224 points) would not help her in this regard even if Maria had lost in the 1st round. SF (440 or 454 points) will be enough if Maria gets less than 232 points. This will happen if Maria loses in R16 or in QF (but only if she beats Bondarenko rather than Dechy in R16). If Maria beats Srebotnik and then Dechy, she'll get 260 points and Amelie will need at least a final to pass her.

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Old Jun 24th, 2005, 08:01 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by densuprun
Amelie had a theoretical chance to get to number 1 BEFORE the tournament started.

After the draw was completed, if LD lost in the first round she would finish with 4825 points. Amelie will have 3768 + Wim points, so she would need 1057 points to get to number 1. With LD's 200 quality points not available to her in the semifinals she could only get 1086 at most. So she had a theoretical chance.

But then Lindsay won her first round to push her total up by additional 38 points to eliminate Amelie's chances. Later Domachowska (20 quality points) lost to Sanchez Lorenzo (8), Sprem (30) lost to Tanasugarn (16) who lost to Perry (4). As a result, even if Lindsay had lost in the first round the most Amelie would be able to get is 1086 - (20-8) - (30-4) = 1048 which would not be enough anyway.

So, the most AM can hope for after Wimbledon is #2. QF (224 points) would not help her in this regard even if Maria had lost in the 1st round. SF (440 or 454 points) will be enough if Maria gets less than 232 points. This will happen if Maria loses in R16 or in QF (but only if she beats Bondarenko rather than Dechy in R16). If Maria beats Srebotnik and then Dechy, she'll get 260 points and Amelie will need at least a final to pass her.
Thank you! Holy cow that was informative!
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