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Old Nov 11th, 2012, 06:19 PM   #1
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Sammy statistics (2010 to 2012) + versus other top tenners

Did some number crunching and came up with the following stats for Sammy:



Some observations over three year period (2010 – 2012):
  • 2 set w/l pretty consistent at c. 70%
  • 3 set w/l record deteriorating – from 68.2% in 2010, to 55% in 2011 and now 52.2% in 2011 (although its comforting to know that Sammy’s % of matches going to 3 sets has increased from around 40% in 2010/11 to 50% in 2012 – so least she is forcing play into a 3rd set)
  • Her w/l record when first set is lost is actually slightly worse this year (38.5%) compared to 2011 (40%). I did not realise that she only lost 1 of the 8 matches (87.5%) in 2010! Having said that, her w/l% when she wins the first set has improved to c. 70% in 2011/12 compared to 57.1% in 2010. Particularly heartbreaking as how close the three set losses have been for Sam – nearly all her 3 set losses have been decided by either a tie break or only one break....that is just a crazy stat! A case of so near yet so far!



Overall w/l record pretty comparable to 2011, slightly worse off due to poor showing at the y/e champs this year.
100% win/loss record over players ranked >100 in 2010? Impressive! Then again, this stat will always dependent on the rankings of her opponents during the grass tournaments. You can be ranked 1000 in the world and still stand a pretty good chance of beating Sam (or rather be on the opposite side of the court and witness Sam beat herself!). As it turned out, the lucky winner @ Wimbledon 2010 was one Kaia Kanepi, ranked 80 in the world.

It’s staggering how little Sam played against the top 10 this year. Although she possibly played Venus (x3) and Serena (x2) while they were ranked above her more than any other top 10 players ex Vika and Maria. In fact Venus played only 33 matches this year and met Sam three times (ranked around 60 all 3 times) Talk about bad luck with draws!

How in compares with the rest of the top tenners:



Other stats - other top tenners included:











* as a % of sets played



Last edited by annetcl : Nov 11th, 2012 at 10:43 PM.
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Old Nov 12th, 2012, 01:28 AM   #2
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Re: Sammy statistics (2010 to 2012) + versus other top tenners

I am dead annetcl, Amazing job


I'll have a closer look at the stats tonight sometime. There's no reason Sam's three set record should be getting so low. Way too many missed opportunities in the last couple of years. At least she's winning more than fifty percent I guess, but as a top ten player ...
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Old Nov 12th, 2012, 06:27 AM   #3
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Re: Sammy statistics (2010 to 2012) + versus other top tenners

Great work annetcl. The stats certainly point to Sam having the worst year of the top 10.
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Old Nov 12th, 2012, 09:47 AM   #4
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Re: Sammy statistics (2010 to 2012) + versus other top tenners

Quote:
Originally Posted by SilverPersian View Post
I am dead annetcl, Amazing job


I'll have a closer look at the stats tonight sometime. There's no reason Sam's three set record should be getting so low. Way too many missed opportunities in the last couple of years. At least she's winning more than fifty percent I guess, but as a top ten player ...
Yup - if she can turn this around somehow someway - it will be a major breakthrough from her.

Some quotes from a recent interview:

"Overall, finishing number nine in the world, it's still pretty good," said the 28-year-old Queenslander during a break from her grinding tennis schedule.

"It's not as high as I wanted it to be, that's for sure.

"But taking a break and reflecting, parts of my game have improved and others can still improve."

Stosur, who said a top-three ranking was achievable, wants to especially improve on her poor Australian summer.

This year, she was bundled out of the Brisbane and Sydney Internationals in the second and first rounds respectively.

Stosur then suffered a straight-sets first-round loss at the Australian Open, a tournament where she has only twice progressed beyond the third round.

"The last couple of months, I've lost a lot of really close matches 7-5 in the third (or) 7-6 in the third," she said.

"I'm right there. If you win half of those, all of a sudden your year looks a lot better and you've won a couple of tournaments.

Sam, actually its the last couple of years not merely the last couple of months unfortunately She is right though, she only needs to win a few more than she has lost and all of a sudden, things look a lot better. Easier said than done though. Do it in 2013 Sam!
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Old Nov 12th, 2012, 06:55 PM   #5
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Re: Sammy statistics (2010 to 2012) + versus other top tenners

Thanks for all these stats annetcl!

It's a lot to digest, and I'm not yet sure what it all means, but I'm pretty sure it means something. My gut feeling is that Sam's year hasn't been as bad as the stats suggest, but I also don't think we can escape the fact that Sam has underachieved this year.

The fact that this has happened without any real systematic loss of form is troubling or encouraging, depending on how you look at it. Troubling because every other player in the top 10 is currently a lot better than Sam at making use of opportunities when they present themselves. Encouraging because she really shouldn't need to do a lot to turn things around.
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Old Nov 12th, 2012, 10:01 PM   #6
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Re: Sammy statistics (2010 to 2012) + versus other top tenners

Quote:
Originally Posted by stromatolite View Post
Thanks for all these stats annetcl!

It's a lot to digest, and I'm not yet sure what it all means, but I'm pretty sure it means something. My gut feeling is that Sam's year hasn't been as bad as the stats suggest, but I also don't think we can escape the fact that Sam has underachieved this year.

The fact that this has happened without any real systematic loss of form is troubling or encouraging, depending on how you look at it. Troubling because every other player in the top 10 is currently a lot better than Sam at making use of opportunities when they present themselves. Encouraging because she really shouldn't need to do a lot to turn things around.
Thank you Annetcl! I thought the Conference Thread was the peak of any discussion on TF, but you set the bar even higher.
Sam is not a linear player, but her fans are.

I do agree with Stromatolite, it takes times time to digest it all, here some feelings one might corroborate with the statistics.

2010 is, and remains Sam’s supreme tennis on Red Clay. It’s not Charleston’s W or RG’s F: it’s the whole thing as a pack. When you look at it, beyond numbers, it’s some form of easiness there that is just missing now.

If you compare 2011 and 2012, until August, 2012 is a better year. Everything is obviously “distorted” by the USO victory; but just after, the 2011 Asian swing was just a mess: which was absolutely not the case of the 2012 one.

2012: If Sam has won Vs. Errani at RG, winning RG’s F this year or not, you could even say that 2012 is a better year over than the previous one: more consistent, and reaching a F GS in both cases.

2012 again: I think crunching the numbers will only confirm Sam was "consistently” a little bit unlucky compared to 2011 with the draws on one side, on losing soooo many matches only one game away from victory, and even one or two points away Vs. top players (Maria, Vika).

I’m not betting on (some) more “luck” in 2013, but the few inches repeatedly missing this year can be as many new victories next year, and her ranking shall change dramatically.

B.

Last edited by bertisonline : Nov 12th, 2012 at 10:11 PM.
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Old Nov 13th, 2012, 06:03 AM   #7
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Re: Sammy statistics (2010 to 2012) + versus other top tenners

Just a couple of random comments. Like stromatolite says, it's a lot to digest so I'll probably duck in and out a few times.
-She seems to be getting breadsticked and bagelled a lot more in 2012 than she was in past years. She ate no bagels in 2010 and 2011 (), and only five breadsticks. In 2012, she ate two and six respectively. I'm not quite sure how to account for this - it could just be luck. A couple of times - particularly in that match with Wozniacki at Moscow - she totally lost confidence with her serve. It suggests to me that she's a bit concerned about playing good returners, and doesn't trust herself to win service games against them. With a serve as good as Sam's, she really shouldn't be losing too many 61 or 60 sets.
-Another interesting stat is the one that shows that Sam is much more likely to win a third set by more than one break, than she is by a single break or in a tiebreaker. I guess this is probably something that we all knew. But way too many times this year she fell into the trap of only playing well when she was behind, and then getting pipped at the post in the final few games. Good too see some qualitative evidence to back up this point in aneetcl's other post in this thread as well (Although winning 90% of her matches after winning the first set is impressive )
-I think I'm reading this stat wrong, but is it true that Sam was 7-1 in three set matches where she lost the first set in 2010? Because that's crazy good.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bertisonline
2010 is, and remains Sam’s supreme tennis on Red Clay. It’s not Charleston’s W or RG’s F: it’s the whole thing as a pack. When you look at it, beyond numbers, it’s some form of easiness there that is just missing now
Yeah, I agree that Sam seemed to be able to overpower her opponents in 2010 a little more easily than she can now. I suspect this is partly because the tour in general has a better sense of how to approach Sam tactically, so she hasn't been allowed to use her weapons so freely in the couple of years. But, watching highlights reels from some of her RG 2010 matches (a pretty dubious way to collect data, I know), it did seem like her FH was a bit more versatile and accurate than it is at the moment.

Quote:
I’m not betting on (some) more “luck” in 2013, but the few inches repeatedly missing this year can be as many new victories next year, and her ranking shall change dramatically
I like this
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Old Nov 13th, 2012, 01:34 PM   #8
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Re: Sammy statistics (2010 to 2012) + versus other top tenners

Hey guys, nice little debate/discussion going on here. I like it

Some of the stats mainly just put into context what we already know about Sam's year/Sam in general:
  • she does relatively well playing people ranked above her - the sample size is small but she places 5th in her h2h vs top 2 players. (2010 and 2011 were probably chart topping amongst her peers if we do a similar comparison I suspect).
  • she struggles to do as well against players ranked around or below her (placing 9th or 10th amongst her peers in this category)

Additionally,these stats really stood out for me:
  • Her dire 3 set record, in particular when she is a set down. I thought she was improving this year but stats say she is actually not doing much better on this front as its largely the same win/lost % of c. 40% for both years when she down a set. It is this stat that her peers are head and shoulders above her. Although I remain encouraged that she is at least forcing a lot more matches into a 3rd set when she is down a set (she is placed 4/10 in this respect - credit to her) - she just has to somehow conjure a way to not let her winning momentum go after winning the second set and win a few more of these matches, especially after she wins the 2nd set convincingly e.g. Rus (Wimby) and Errani (RG, Istanbul). Like DT mentioned, there is just too big a gap between Sam's best and worse game during a match. How can you go from bagelling / break sticking someone in the second set only to be struggling again in the 3rd set? Unfortunately it happened time and time again this year
  • Sam is an excellent front runner - her win % when she up a set is up there with Vika/Masha/Serena. But we all know what makes a champion is how you compete when the chips are down - this remains a vital missing piece in Sam's game - a complete game changer for her - will it happen for her? I am skeptical but hopeful - stranger things have happened but she is running out of years.
  • With her weapons, she really should be finishing more matches in 2 sets, instead she is placed 10th in % matches that finishes in 2 sets - this was a real surprise to me.
  • She should also be bagelling and breadsticking more often with her game - but she is 7th in delivering bagel sets and 10th in delivering bread stick sets - probably has something to do with her crappy return of serves.

Re her 2010 stats, I was really surprised/impressed with:
  • her 7-1 record when she lost the first set (one standout match is her match vs Henin at RG where she lost the first set and won the next 2)
    (Incidentally, her only 3 set loss when she was down a set in 2010 was also to Justine. One thing though, all 8 setters were with players in the top 30/outside the top 30. In 2011, 2/6 losses were to top tenners, 2/9 in 2012).
  • her having more wins (4) than losses (3) in 3 setters decided by a break.
  • 23 bread stick sets!

I put these performances down to 2010 being her breakthrough year, first year in the top 10 less expectation / pressure - corroborates with somewhat care free nature of Sam's play in 2010 that B observed. Also like what you said Silverpersian, her game is still "new" to other players have yet to get to grips with how to handle her. Suppose its more difficult when you are a perennial top tenner in 2011/12 *("the hunted") rather than the ("hunter").

Quote:
Originally Posted by SilverPersian View Post
-She seems to be getting breadsticked and bagelled a lot more in 2012 than she was in past years. She ate no bagels in 2010 and 2011 (), and only five breadsticks. In 2012, she ate two and six respectively. I'm not quite sure how to account for this - it could just be luck.
She actually ate no bagels at all up to Istanbul. The 2 bagels occurred against Sara and Masha respectively. We were bracing ourselves for 3 bagels after her horror show of a first set against Maria. If she did not start as at alternate, she would have ate 0 bagels in 2012, same as Serena and Vika!

Well you can say that her participation in the WTA Champs may have screwed her in more ways than one, she has gotten no benefits from playing whatsoever - suffering 2 additional losses (and in the process undoing the feel good factor from her win against Maria @ Tokyo and magnifying the disappointment of her loss against Sara at RG)and bagels would have done her more harm than good.

Her 6 bread sticks came from:
  • GOAT Vika (2 - Doha, USO)
  • GOAT Serena (2 - Charleston)
  • Nadia (1 - IW)
  • Virginie (1 - Osaka)

You could argue she could have done better against Vika but Serena was just unplayable at Charleston. She was really actrocious against Nadia at IW and judging from the translation of the Osaka article, her groundies were exploding all over against Virginie so probably played horridly. So nothing too wrong with the bread sticks stats for 2012.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SilverPersian View Post
A couple of times - particularly in that match with Wozniacki at Moscow - she totally lost confidence with her serve. It suggests to me that she's a bit concerned about playing good returners, and doesn't trust herself to win service games against them
My observation is that she has lost her faith in her serve for whatever reason (her injury?), especially her first serve after the Tokyo QF. IMO, her first serves lost its effectiveness due to its predictability and it being not placed very well thereafter i.e. not going for her first serves. There were many matches after Tokyo where her % points won on her 1st serve were well below 50% which is really odd for Sam. I noticed that most times after Tokyo she went either with the serve down the tee (either well within the centre line / missed) or middle of the box. Noticed that she hardly served the acute angled serve out wide with pace (not kick, at times in the Moscow final, even the kick was not acute enough to open up the court) on both the deuce and ad court (particularly the ad) after her QF with Maria. Her serves out wide to deuce/ad courts were quite "safe" i.e. well within the tip of the service box so her opponents had no trouble returning them with pace most of the time e.g. vs Julia in Beijing. This is what Serena does really effectively - the gap between her serve down the tee and out wide is so huge that Maria, one of the best returners out there was often caught off guard and missed a return if she guessed Serena's serve direction wrongly during the Istanbul final.

Like you, I think she did more with her forehand - more angles etc during 2010 compared to now. I think she can do a lot more with her forehand - spinny angled shots to create width rather than ripping it all the time.

Last edited by annetcl : Nov 13th, 2012 at 01:46 PM.
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Old Nov 20th, 2012, 06:13 AM   #9
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Re: Sammy statistics (2010 to 2012) + versus other top tenners

^I've looked at this post a few times, but its awesomeness has intimidated me from responding until now

Quote:
[*]Her dire 3 set record, in particular when she is a set down. I thought she was improving this year but stats say she is actually not doing much better on this front as its largely the same win/lost % of c. 40% for both years when she down a set. It is this stat that her peers are head and shoulders above her. Although I remain encouraged that she is at least forcing a lot more matches into a 3rd set when she is down a set (she is placed 4/10 in this respect - credit to her) - she just has to somehow conjure a way to not let her winning momentum go after winning the second set and win a few more of these matches, especially after she wins the 2nd set convincingly e.g. Rus (Wimby) and Errani (RG, Istanbul). Like DT mentioned, there is just too big a gap between Sam's best and worse game during a match. How can you go from bagelling / break sticking someone in the second set only to be struggling again in the 3rd set? Unfortunately it happened time and time again this year
This statistic is quite concerning - especially since in 2011 she went through the first third of the season without winning a three set match at all. She seemed to come back from a set down a few times just at the end of this year (Franny, Ana and Virginie), so hopefuly this stat is on the way up for next year.

Quote:
[*]She should also be bagelling and breadsticking more often with her game - but she is 7th in delivering bagel sets and 10th in delivering bread stick sets - probably has something to do with her crappy return of serves.
Yeah, I think there's a lot to what stromatolite has said about Sam's return. I don't know if just being more aggressive with it is really what she needs. I think a Vika-style deep reliability is probably what would help Sam break some more

Quote:
[*]her 7-1 record when she lost the first set (one standout match is her match vs Henin at RG where she lost the first set and won the next 2)
I just cannot believe this stat is true. Ridiculous


Quote:
She actually ate no bagels at all up to Istanbul. The 2 bagels occurred against Sara and Masha respectively. We were bracing ourselves for 3 bagels after her horror show of a first set against Maria. If she did not start as at alternate, she would have ate 0 bagels in 2012, same as Serena and Vika!

Well you can say that her participation in the WTA Champs may have screwed her in more ways than one, she has gotten no benefits from playing whatsoever - suffering 2 additional losses (and in the process undoing the feel good factor from her win against Maria @ Tokyo and magnifying the disappointment of her loss against Sara at RG)and bagels would have done her more harm than good.
These are good and important points. Her YEC qualification was a bit of a disaster when you put it statistically. It might be important in future years in terms of not getting too caught up in the YEC vulture-fest in the last part of the year.Staying fit and healthy and focusing on the slams is probably where her main objectives should be (Although I always obsess and hope she'll make the YECs )

Quote:
Like you, I think she did more with her forehand - more angles etc during 2010 compared to now. I think she can do a lot more with her forehand - spinny angled shots to create width rather than ripping it all the time
Yep, definitely agree about using the spin to create angles. The off-forehand shallow in the court and pushing her opponent out side was a really effective shot for her in 2010, but it seems to have been put on the backburners for what ever reason. Maybe her opponents aren't giving her the chance to hit it too often ...
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