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Old Nov 10th, 2012, 04:11 AM   #16
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Re: PAW Rule Changes for 2013

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Originally Posted by SamR03A View Post
I disagree, I think this will only lead to more picking of favourites. We are aiming for something like betting odds (but without the bookmaker margin), so let me pick some real bookmaker odds close to your matches to illustrate.

Azarenka vs Goerges, Linz - 10595 v 1965, 6-17 instead of 4-23.
Betting average (from tennisexplorer.com): 1.06-9.59 - estimated probability of winning: Azarenka 90 %, Goerges 10 %. Expected points under old system: Azarenka 3.6, Goerges 2.3.

Hercog P v Pavlyuchenkova A, Beijing - 816 v 1430. 12-8 instead of 13-8.
Betting average: 3.57-1.28. Estimated probability: Hercog 27 %, Pavlyuchenkova 73 %. Expected points: Hercog 3.5, Pavlyuchenkova 5.8.

For your Sharapova-Stevenson example, this breaks down because bookmakers can't give odds less than 1 (and I haven't found any matches where the top players played so weak players), but Azarenka-Brianti at Roland Garros had odds of 1.01-50 on [censored site, but it is a betting exchange rather than a bookmaker], indicating 98 %-2 % probability, and the old system gave 3-37 (and the new system would give 4-23).

It is tempting to go for the big points, but in the long run it will not work.
I completely agree and with your calculations, and with a conclusion: "...this will only lead to more picking of favourites".
But I wished to make so. To increase quantity of picks by favorites.
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Old Nov 10th, 2012, 05:35 AM   #17
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Re: PAW Rule Changes for 2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by purtov View Post
I completely agree and with your calculations, and with a conclusion: "...this will only lead to more picking of favourites".
But I wished to make so. To increase quantity of picks by favorites.


I disagree because I would like the expected points to be about even on both players in a match, but that is opinion, not mathematics
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Old Jan 5th, 2013, 09:06 PM   #18
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Re: PAW Rule Changes for 2013

From the start of the 2013 season, the PAW Board have decided to introduce the following Tie-Break Rules for the case where several players have the same number of points in the final league table:-

Tie-Break

In case several players have the same number of points, the following rules will be used to determine their ranking:-

1. The greater number of won picks.
If there is still a tie then:
2. The greater points of a single pick.
If there is still a tie then the greater second-best pick, and so on.
Note - A No pick will be considered better than 0 pts.
3. If there is still a tie then players will stay tied.
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