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Old Sep 25th, 2012, 05:20 PM   #4126
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

Dani is kind of a bad omen for Caro and I'm not just talking about the humiliating defeat at FO last year.
Olympics 2008: Caro beats Dani, loses next match against Dementieva.
Miami 2011: Caro beats Dani, loses next match against Petkovic.
Olympics 2012: Caro beats Dani, loses next match against Serena.
The only time this sad statistics was broken was at Ponte Vedra Beach 2009, where Caro the day after beating Dani managed to survive 4 MPs and a near heatstroke against Vesnina.
Tokyo 2012: Caro beats Dani, the next match...?

This will be the first time Caro isn't the higher ranked when playing against Li Na. And it'll be the first time since 2008 the two are facing off outside of Australia. Australia has been bad luck for Caro in this H2H (1-3, but just one point from 2-2, as I think we all know), what about Asia?
I'd say Caro is a slight underdog but Li was never the most stable of players. If Caro can keep Li back with deep groundstrokes and take the initiative when the opening is there, I think our girl has a fair chance.
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Old Sep 25th, 2012, 05:58 PM   #4127
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Originally Posted by C. W. Fields View Post
I'd say Caro is a slight underdog but Li was never the most stable of players. If Caro can keep Li back with deep groundstrokes and take the initiative when the opening is there, I think our girl has a fair chance.
Caroline has a chance but I agree that Na is the favorite. Na has been playing well in patches this year and since Rodriguez started coaching her she seems to play with renewed confidence.
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Old Sep 25th, 2012, 05:58 PM   #4128
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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I really am puzzled by that result: she's been far more effective with 2nd serve (mostly in the 1st) than with the 1st and still didn't face a single BP...yesterday she was a mess she's so unlogical of a late...against Li it will be a lot tougher though and sadly it will all be on Li's racket
She's being more aggressive with her first and second serves. Her percentage of 1st serves is going down, but, even if she's not getting a lot of aces, she's getting a tonne of unreturned serves, which in my book is the same thing. It's a stat they only seem to keep at Wimbledon.

Being more aggressive on her 1st serve means, of course, that she has to do the same on her 2nd, because there will be more of them. This also means she'll hit mor DF's. But she's learned to accept that. I have to put that down to Thomas J. He knows she hates to make errors, and her instinct is to play safe at all times. He's been trying to convince her that being more aggressive with both her serves will pay off. And it has.

The real test will be when she meets the quality returners in the WTA like Vika, who is absolutely amazing when she's on.

Caro's returning has also been impressive, but, again, the test is meeting the big cannons.

Caro admitted at her presser in Seoul that she's building now towards next year. To me this means we may see more of Caro Unleashed. When she feels too much pressure to win, she moves back to Caroland, as Sam Smith so rightly pointed out, and I was screaming at TV, on a match I'd already seen once, "move up ya berk".

When she gets more matches under her belt, and becomes more convinced that becoming a counter attacker is the way to go, well, the sky's the limit.

I know we get so frustrated because she has so much ability, and hasn't used a fraction of it yet. But it will come, I'm convinced of it.
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Old Sep 25th, 2012, 06:33 PM   #4129
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Originally Posted by Chrissie-fan View Post
Caroline has a chance but I agree that Na is the favorite. Na has been playing well in patches this year and since Rodriguez started coaching her she seems to play with renewed confidence.
Yes, but interestingly enough, by just a smidgen. 1.90 vs 2.05 (yes there's 5 ticks missing. You may add them where ever at your own discretion .. back/lay spread).

Considering how Caroline has played lately (post Korea), I think it's encouraging punters see her at near even with Li Na.
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Old Sep 25th, 2012, 06:43 PM   #4130
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

I think it'll be a close match, Na is not an overwhelming favourite here. She's won a big title this year unlike but also had some bad losses. It'll be about what form will both show. If the no-errors version of Caro turn up she has a chance to finally get a big win under her belt. It's about the time to add some other scalps next to Serena's
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Old Sep 25th, 2012, 09:26 PM   #4131
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

When was the last time Caro beat a player who was ranked higher than her? She has a chance to do it tomorrow
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Old Sep 25th, 2012, 09:37 PM   #4132
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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When was the last time Caro beat a player who was ranked higher than her? She has a chance to do it tomorrow
That was back in the 4th round of the US Open in 2009 against #6 Kuznetsova. Caro was ranked #8 at that time.

Caro was in the top 4 or higher for so long and she couldn't meet anybody higher than her until at least the semis of tournaments.
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Old Sep 26th, 2012, 03:16 AM   #4133
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

There's 2 things we can see this week.
1- Does she have the stamina to play 2 full weeks.
2- Can she beat players who are top 10, one after the other. To win Premier titles or get back to a slam final, you have to beat more than 1 top 10er, usually.
Those wins have been rare the past 12 months
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Old Sep 26th, 2012, 04:13 AM   #4134
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Originally Posted by goldenlox View Post
There's 2 things we can see this week.
1- Does she have the stamina to play 2 full weeks.
2- Can she beat players who are top 10, one after the other. To win Premier titles or get back to a slam final, you have to beat more than 1 top 10er, usually.
Those wins have been rare the past 12 months
Normally when play tournaments in back to back weeks there's going to be a couple of days off (not necessarily consecutive).

I think expecting Caro to be able to multiple top 10 opponents in a row is too much to ask at the present time. Caro is on a 7 match losing streak vs top 10 opponents going back to the YEC last year.

Li has been a tough matchup for Caro even in better times.
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Old Sep 26th, 2012, 04:56 AM   #4135
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

Why doesn't Caro have more aces? Even in matches when she's winning a pretty high % of points on her 1st serve she typically doesn't have many aces (0 to 2).
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Old Sep 26th, 2012, 05:28 AM   #4136
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Why doesn't Caro have more aces? Even in matches when she's winning a pretty high % of points on her 1st serve she typically doesn't have many aces (0 to 2).
She hits a lot of unreturned serves, a stat which is recorded at every tournament, but for some reason only published at Wimbledon. Otherwise it seems to be top secret. But unreturned serves are the same as aces in my book.
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Old Sep 26th, 2012, 06:29 AM   #4137
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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She hits a lot of unreturned serves, a stat which is recorded at every tournament, but for some reason only published at Wimbledon. Otherwise it seems to be top secret. But unreturned serves are the same as aces in my book.
Maybe they don't want to publish the US stats because it wouln't distinguish between for instance a 200 kmh 1st serve the returner barely touches and a 110 kmh 2nd serve the returner hits a cm out when going for a winner.
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Old Sep 26th, 2012, 07:12 AM   #4138
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

Agree with some of the other posters;Aces is a nicely flashy stat,but it doesn't matter much if Caro hits zero of them yet strikes 12 serves that are nearly unreturnable or force her foe into a difficult situation
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Old Sep 26th, 2012, 08:49 AM   #4139
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

Why didn't I think of this before? Caro - Li Na should of course be called a CaroLiNa match!
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Old Sep 26th, 2012, 09:44 AM   #4140
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 5

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Originally Posted by C. W. Fields View Post
Maybe they don't want to publish the US stats because it wouln't distinguish between for instance a 200 kmh 1st serve the returner barely touches and a 110 kmh 2nd serve the returner hits a cm out when going for a winner.
A journalist told me that an unreturned serve is a serve that isn't returned over the net. Dunno if that's correct, but it's what I've been going by.
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