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Old Mar 11th, 2011, 09:11 PM   #361
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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Originally Posted by Burisleif View Post
I think its the same for any player? Getting a sudden change of player style is more an issue though imho, i.e going from a BBB to a CP or v.v.



Are you talking about Babies? I honestly can't get hung up on rankings... I guess I don't have enough of an autistic gene in me... as such I think its great if the players are able to combine a family with a career and still do well. Saying that, even 30 is quite young for kids these days among career women. Luckily for me it was an easy choice to follow Caroline, and I have no intention of supporting more than one player (I have a life outside) and the real pleasure has been seeing her grow and develop as a player. I like my players to evolve over time rather than explode onto the stage... As such it really isn't that relevant to me who else is out their as the opposition, I fully intend to enjoy the time until Caro decides to have a break her self. Then we can cue the "she's only no.1 because Caro is having a break" threads, which I will happily not bother to read.



We already have tittle for the thread!!!

"On the Concept of Irony with Continual Reference to Caroline"

I'm just waiting for you to open it...

Its a play on the thesis of the influential Danish philosopher Kierkegaard who's dark themes deal with such wonders as, reality vs abstract, objectivity over subjectivity, and reality vs spirituality.

I fully understand if you need some private moments to contemplate the latest effects of PSD addiction for a few hours though.
You missed the mark with your last comment because some of my acid-tripping and marijuana-smoking colleagues have noted that I'm more creative than THEY are despite being completely sober....I'll open that Kierkegaard-inspired Caro thread even though she's a LOT more Polish than Danish...will take care of that now
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Old Mar 11th, 2011, 09:19 PM   #362
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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Originally Posted by Protoss View Post
Is green clay any more risky to play on then red clay?
I think so. There's only two green clay tournaments on the WTA tour (only 1 this year). And both Caro and Zvonareva got a bad ankle injury on green clay at Family Circle Cup the last two seasons (Vera in 2009 and Caro in 2010). Ankle injuries doesn't seem to happen nearly as frequently on red clay, despite the fact that there's a lot more red clay tournaments compared to only two green clay tournaments.
The danger with green clay is that players try to slide like on red clay, but green clay is quite different from red clay and is not nearly as deep and suddenly while sliding they will go through the thin slippery top layer and the foot gets trapped by the firm layer below, but the body continues out over the ankle. It happens in a split second and players does not expect this sudden stop, that's why Caro got injured.
Of course it takes more than these two incidents to make any reliable statistics, but when you watch player on green clay you often see their foot get stuck below the slippery layer, which doesn't happen on red clay, unless they slide across the white plastic lines. Players often twist their ankle or close to it if they slide across the service lines or sidelines on red clay, but it doesn't happen very often as most sliding is behind the baseline or in front of the service line trying to catch a drop shot. The biggest risk of twisitng the ankle is while they slide sideways, maybe across the sideline chasing a drop shot. Sliding straight forward across the service line isn't that dangerous as the body will just continue forward in the natural bending direction of the ankle.

Last edited by stangtennis : Mar 11th, 2011 at 09:27 PM.
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Old Mar 11th, 2011, 09:30 PM   #363
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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Originally Posted by bruce goose View Post
You missed the mark with your last comment because some of my acid-tripping and marijuana-smoking colleagues have noted that I'm more creative than THEY are despite being completely sober....I'll open that Kierkegaard-inspired Caro thread even though she's a LOT more Polish than Danish...will take care of that now
its one of those addictions that just creeps up on you

Polish... ja ja, Danish is a state of mind... a few more months... and you'll be swigging a beer with your raw herrings every morning like the rest of us
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Old Mar 11th, 2011, 09:40 PM   #364
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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Originally Posted by Burisleif View Post
its one of those addictions that just creeps up on you

Polish... ja ja, Danish is a state of mind... a few more months... and you'll be swigging a beer with your raw herrings every morning like the rest of us
Actually,I don't imagine that I'm any stronger than certain substance addicts are,but I had an early perspective in life while witnessing some addicted males in my own family,so that planted a seed at a very young age....If I were TRULY physically & mentally intoxicated,then I'd be hanging out in the fist pump forum instead of Caro's,wouldn't I??
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Old Mar 11th, 2011, 10:00 PM   #365
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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Originally Posted by C. W. Fields View Post
I still hope she has the good sense to cancel Charleston if she goes deep at both IW and Miami.
I seriously wish she had never taken up the invitation... You never know but I don't see Caroline ever pulling out of a commitment... has she ever done so before?
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Old Mar 12th, 2011, 05:29 AM   #366
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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I don't see Caroline ever pulling out of a commitment... has she ever done so before?
I never pull out of anything I have committed to.
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Old Mar 12th, 2011, 06:12 AM   #367
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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Originally Posted by Burisleif View Post
I seriously wish she had never taken up the invitation... You never know but I don't see Caroline ever pulling out of a commitment... has she ever done so before?
I believe Caro withdrew from a tournament or two in 2008 after getting injured at Amelia Island.

Other than that I can't think any other withdrawls from a tournament from 2008 on. I don't know about before then.
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Old Mar 12th, 2011, 06:21 AM   #368
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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Originally Posted by stangtennis View Post
I think so. There's only two green clay tournaments on the WTA tour (only 1 this year). And both Caro and Zvonareva got a bad ankle injury on green clay at Family Circle Cup the last two seasons (Vera in 2009 and Caro in 2010). Ankle injuries doesn't seem to happen nearly as frequently on red clay, despite the fact that there's a lot more red clay tournaments compared to only two green clay tournaments.
The danger with green clay is that players try to slide like on red clay, but green clay is quite different from red clay and is not nearly as deep and suddenly while sliding they will go through the thin slippery top layer and the foot gets trapped by the firm layer below, but the body continues out over the ankle. It happens in a split second and players does not expect this sudden stop, that's why Caro got injured.
Of course it takes more than these two incidents to make any reliable statistics, but when you watch player on green clay you often see their foot get stuck below the slippery layer, which doesn't happen on red clay, unless they slide across the white plastic lines. Players often twist their ankle or close to it if they slide across the service lines or sidelines on red clay, but it doesn't happen very often as most sliding is behind the baseline or in front of the service line trying to catch a drop shot. The biggest risk of twisting the ankle is while they slide sideways, maybe across the sideline chasing a drop shot. Sliding straight forward across the service line isn't that dangerous as the body will just continue forward in the natural bending direction of the ankle.
Ah. What if you just don't slide on green clay? Is that not an option?

How about before those 2 injuries? Do you know any significant injuries on green clay?

Hmmm. Zvonareva's injury was a lot worse than Caro's yet she still came back the following year. It's a bit odd that they'd come back to where they suffered a bad injury.
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Old Mar 12th, 2011, 06:47 AM   #369
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

As she has already mentioned on Twitter, Caro plays 3rd tomorrow after 11am...probably around 1500 local time, 1800 where I am at, 2300 GMT and midnight in Denmark, plus or minus of course. Good luck Caro!


ORDER OF PLAY - SATURDAY, MARCH 12, 2011

STADIUM 1 start 11:00 am
D Safina (RUS) vs [26] D Hantuchova (SVK) - WTA
J Del Potro (ARG) vs [14] I Ljubicic (CRO) - ATP
[1] C Wozniacki (DEN) vs [WC] S Stephens (USA) - WTA
[1] R Nadal (ESP) vs [Q] R de Voest (RSA) - ATP
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Old Mar 12th, 2011, 07:09 AM   #370
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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Originally Posted by kollun View Post
First of all, hello, I am a new "poster" here.

There seems to be a lot of discussion of green clay danger discussion, due to the injury Caroline suffered at Charleston last year. Maybe I could just remind you to have a look at the games she managed to finish before the injury.

She honestly played like a puppet who had been on its first 40 km run, and just wanted to sleep for the next 2 month.

Simply put she was really tired, and you could see that from the start. These are the situations when most injuries happen
.

So I would not worry too much about her entering into Charleston, since 1. She is in a much better physical shape and fitness, 2. Charleston was her fourth tournament in a row with no rest (this year it will be her third, but with at least a week of rest and practice on clay before Charleston begins).
It's true there's no PVB on the schedule this year, but Charleston has been moved up a week so there's not a week off after Miami. Miami final is Saturday, April 2 and her first Charleston match would probably be Wednesday, April 6.
I agree with you her injury last year had more to do with her being tired than the surface being bad. But even with 'just' 3 tournaments in a row I think she can be plenty tired again for a Charleston SF/F if she goes all the way in IW and Miami.

Welcome to the forum, btw.
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Old Mar 12th, 2011, 09:03 AM   #371
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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Originally Posted by Protoss View Post
Why doesn't Caro hit more aces? Is she concerned/not confident in her 2nd serve if she gets in less 1st serves?

I was wondering about this partly due to the latest match stats the Wta put out which to my big surprise has Jankovic in the top 10 in aces for the year.
I really don't know. I guess all players would like to serve more aces - especially at crucial stages of the match (game point, SP, MP). An ace is a free effortless point, so to say, and might come in handy. But I'm not convinced the amount of aces has any significance at all. A player may serve a lot of aces and still have a terrible serve, while another player serving significantly fewer aces can have a much better serve. That's just my opinion, of course, but I'll try to elaborate (excuse the length and obviousness of the matter, but some might find it useful...).

The amount of aces are just statistical numbers or figures, and such statistics never tell the whole truth. Jankovic, for instance, is on that top 10 list, and Stosur isn't. But I would still argue, that Jankovic's serve is weak compared to Stosur's (and many other player's)! Jankovic has played a lot of matches in 2011 (16), which obviously increases her total amount of aces (one of the other players on the list has only played 7 matches, but still has more aces than Jankovic!). Furthermore, several of Jankovic's matches have been three-set matches, often with a 7-5 score in the sets, and she has also played several tie breaks this year. This, I believe, explains her relatively high total amount of aces. (Not to mention the stuff, we can't see directly: did she play many "love" games or many deuces in each game?).

Aces (and winners and errors for that matter) are nothing but numbers, and I'd like to take a completely different approach and discuss some other statistical aspects of serving. I'm sure there are a lot of obvious factors determining whether a serve will be successful or not (speed, angle, depth, spin/kick etc.). You all probably know more about that than I do. I guess the server's position at the serve line, the toss, and the body motion during the execution also plays a role - at least in how easy the serve is to anticipate for the returner. And most important, perhaps, is the willingness to go "all in" on the first serve, as you rightly suggests.

This also means, however, that serving many aces means serving with bigger risk (as summarized above), which again means a decreasing 1st serve percentage and therefore an increasing amount of 2nd serves! And since winning points on 2nd serve is much harder (for the server!), going "all in" on the 1st serves can be a dangerous route to go down! All of this is sort of implied in Protoss' quote, and I completely agree as to why Caro may seem reluctant to go "all in" on her serves. To prove my point I've made the table below using some of KleineBiere's excellent stats (I hope you don't mind, KleineBiere!). The stats are from 2011, and include a few selected players appropriate for my purpose:

Code:
                           Aces per match    Serve points won
Clijsters, Kim                  1,8                61,9%
Wozniacki, Caroline             1,7                60,3%
Petrova, Nadia                  5,1                60,1%
Hantuchova, Daniela             4,0                59,2%
Hercog, Polona                  5,8                58,9%
Marino, Rebecca                 8,1                58,7%
Ivanovic, Ana                   5,4                58,5%
Kleybanova, Alisa               3,7                58,4%
Watson, Heather                 3,8                58,0%
Safarova, Lucie                 3,6                57,8%
Jankovic, Jelena                3,7                57,4%
Hradecka, Lucie                 6,9                57,2%
Schiavone, Francesca            3,6                57,0%
Cornet, Alize                   3,7                56,8%
Kanepi, Kaia                    3,6                56,8%
Parra-Santonja, Arantxa         4,1                54,5%
Dokic, Jelena                   3,8                54,5%
Amanmuradova, Akgul             4,0                52,2%
The two columns may seem completely unrelated, but there is a relation after all. The first column shows aces per match. I'll ignore the fact that this is not always a very useful statistic (cf. my discussion of Jankovic aces above), and keep it as it is, since this is a statistic often referred to. The right column shows serve points won - i.e. the percentage of points won on all serves (1st AND 2nd serve added together). This is a very useful statistic as it shows us what we really want to know. After all, winning points is what matters in tennis; not aces! And I'm quite sure that all the players on the list would prefer high "Serve points won" percentages over more "Aces per match"!

Notice that Clijsters and Wozniacki are winning more points on their serves than anyone else on the list. Notice also that all the other players on the list have averaged at least twice as many aces per match! Yet, Caroline and Kim win more points on their serves. They are better players, of course, and therefore more likely to win the point once it goes into rallying. But that's not the whole reason for their higher winning percentage. It's also because they don't go "all in" on their 1st serves, and therefore are able to maintain a rather high 1st serve percentage. You can't see these 1st serve percentages in the table above, but we know from KleineBiere's original tables that the average 1st serve percentage for Kim and Caro is 66.9% in the analysed period of time. For comparison, the other players on the list - let's call them "the good servers" - have an average 1st serve percentage of 58.7%. This means that the "good servers" more often must serve 2nd serves, which again means less chance of winning the point! It's a very delicate balance, but the best approach must be the approach that's winning (i.e. Kim's and Caro's).

Small print: I'll have to admit one thing before anyone accuses me for manipulating the stats! I've chosen a few players who fit my purpose, but I must also admit, that it IS possible to serve many aces AND have a high 'Serve points won' percentage! Stosur is one such player. Serena in grand slam form has always had that quality too (although there are no 2011 stats for her). There are a few others. So I'm not saying, that serving many aces is a bad thing. I'm only stressing the fact that serving many aces doesn't necessarily lead to a high 'Serve points won' percentage (which the table hopefully shows).

One last aspect, I need to mention, is service winners. Some players can serve excellent unreturnable serves, which are not real aces. Here are two such serves from Wozniacki (early in the match vs. Cibulkova at AO 2011):



There are two serves in the clip. Serve no. 2 was perhaps not un-returnable, and it was won via challenge as Cibulkova's return was too long. But it was a good serve that forced Cibulkovar far out in her forehand. Serve no. 1 was extremely good! If Wozniacki could serve like that all the time, then it wouldn't matter at all if she never served any aces. Unfortunately serve winner statistics is never gathered anywhere. It would be very useful though, and it would say a lot more about who's serving good and not...
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Old Mar 12th, 2011, 12:13 PM   #372
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

Wow, great post Angliru! Typically I just watch the matches and don't really think about anything too deeply but what you are saying makes a lot of sense. As you pointed out Serena is an obvious exception but I wonder how many of those aces come on crucial points? I am not an expert by any stretch and this is just from my memory (which is probably not very reliable) but one of the things that Federer is great at is serving aces when he really needs them. There have been many times that he was down 0-40/15-40 and he served 2 or 3 three aces to get back in the point. If Caroline could do that she would obviously be much better off.

I can't help wishing that Caroling had uncorked an ace when she had that matchpoint in the Australian Open semi finals.
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Old Mar 12th, 2011, 12:40 PM   #373
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

Good draw for Caro I think. Based on the draw she should make it to at least the quarters.

Good luck Caro.
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Old Mar 12th, 2011, 12:42 PM   #374
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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2011 BNP PARIBAS OPEN
DAILY TELEVISION COVERAGE & SCHEDULE
http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/TV/TV-Schedule-2011.aspx
They now say there won't be any WTA coverage today
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Old Mar 12th, 2011, 12:58 PM   #375
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Re: Danish Delight - Caroline Wozniacki thread - vol 4

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They now say there won't be any WTA coverage today
No no no no .. it does say 'WTA 2nd round' for Tennis Channel Sat 12, but ....? On scorehunter and they're usually very updated about their scheduled pirated streams they only list ATP matches from I/W .. a big F-word to that prospect... No disrespect to him, but I'm not really into Tipsonikonkovich or whatever.
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