[pov]

First - to a cool and interesting thread!

When I think of Oudin's serve, I think in comparison to Henin - mostly because Oudin has expressed her admiration of Henin and because they're of similar height and most people still seem to think height is a major factor in having an effective serve. My first thought on the netting was that she is probably tending to stoike the ball just a little too late. This video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr5GHk0nTBs) bears that out. Hopefully her and/or her team will notice that and alter it.

[Volcana]

Serve

If the oponnent is going to consistently hit a winner off your second serve, it's no different than a double fault.

If the oponnent is going to consistently be in an advantageous position off your second serve, it's better than a double fault, but not MUCH better.

I play volleyball, a sport that favors the reciever. (We play under side-out rules, not rally.) The ability to minimize the reciever's advantage is paramount to scoring. That's the reality for a player Oudin's size, unless she can develop a Henin-level serve. Oudin has to accept some double faults, as part of the cost of doing business. We've seen the alternative. Martina Hingis virtually never double-faulted. And opponents hit winners off her serve. Justine Henin double-faulted occassionally. But if she got her second serve in, she usually had a chance at winning the point.

I don't think Oudin will ever be Henin or Hingis. But she can take a lesson. Make your serve dictate. Even your second serve. At least serve so that you know where the return is going, even if it's a place you can't reach.

Melanie Oudin has as much of a chance of winning one slam as Caroline Wozniacki or Victoris Azarenka. Not multiple slams, but one. Think Sue Barker, as opposed to Gabriella Sabatini.

[miffedmax]

I think she's going to be a very good, but not great player, along the lines of a Pennetta or a Frazier--she's always going to be dangerous on any given day, but I just don't see her being able to develop the power she needs to put together a two-week run and win a slam, let alone be a consistent winner at the majors. (I'm not saying we'll never see another smaller slam winner, I'm just saying I don't see it being Oudin).

That said, I think she'll probably win some nice titles and spend a lot of time in the Top 30, even the Top 20.

Then again, my career as a prognisticator is largely summed up by the career of a certain Russian blonde who had the most adorable bangs when she was Melanie's age.

[Elegante]

Originally Posted by Volcana

Serve

If the oponnent is going to consistently hit a winner off your second serve, it's no different than a double fault.

If the oponnent is going to consistently be in an advantageous position off your second serve, it's better than a double fault, but not MUCH better.

I play volleyball, a sport that favors the reciever. (We play under side-out rules, not rally.) The ability to minimize the reciever's advantage is paramount to scoring. That's the reality for a player Oudin's size, unless she can develop a Henin-level serve. Oudin has to accept some double faults, as part of the cost of doing business. We've seen the alternative. Martina Hingis virtually never double-faulted. And opponents hit winners off her serve. Justine Henin double-faulted occassionally. But if she got her second serve in, she usually had a chance at winning the point.

I don't think Oudin will ever be Henin or Hingis. But she can take a lesson. Make your serve dictate. Even your second serve. At least serve so that you know where the return is going, even if it's a place you can't reach.

Melanie Oudin has as much of a chance of winning one slam as Caroline Wozniacki or Victoris Azarenka. Not multiple slams, but one. Think Sue Barker, as opposed to Gabriella Sabatini.

But Sabatini only 1 slam as well?

[laurie]

Originally Posted by Volcana

Serve

If the oponnent is going to consistently hit a winner off your second serve, it's no different than a double fault.

If the oponnent is going to consistently be in an advantageous position off your second serve, it's better than a double fault, but not MUCH better.

I play volleyball, a sport that favors the reciever. (We play under side-out rules, not rally.) The ability to minimize the reciever's advantage is paramount to scoring. That's the reality for a player Oudin's size, unless she can develop a Henin-level serve. Oudin has to accept some double faults, as part of the cost of doing business. We've seen the alternative. Martina Hingis virtually never double-faulted. And opponents hit winners off her serve. Justine Henin double-faulted occassionally. But if she got her second serve in, she usually had a chance at winning the point.

I don't think Oudin will ever be Henin or Hingis. But she can take a lesson. Make your serve dictate. Even your second serve. At least serve so that you know where the return is going, even if it's a place you can't reach.

Melanie Oudin has as much of a chance of winning one slam as Caroline Wozniacki or Victoris Azarenka. Not multiple slams, but one. Think Sue Barker, as opposed to Gabriella Sabatini.

Another interesting point here - nice going

Talking about Henin, yes, Melanie could take some lessons and ideas there.

If we look at someone like Svetlana Kuznetsova who I've discussed a lot over the last 3 years, for a long time on the ad side Sveta played the safe slow mundane top spin 2nd serve which she tried to get high to the opponents' backhand, but in reality it was slow and sitting up begging to be smacked - and particularly in finals (if you recall she lost about 12 finals in a 2 year period), players were teeing off with backhand winners, and in Ana Ivanovic's case; Ana ran around the backhand to smack forehand winners incessantly in 2 finals in berlin and Indian Wells - completely shattering Sveta's confidence casuing her to look for a new coach and changing her serving strategy (something I called for 12 months throughout 2007 - 2008).

If we take Henin, she has a very interesting 2nd serve. Henin is short as we know, but her technique is very interesting.

McEnroe made a comment about both Krajicek's and Sampras' 2nd serve strategy here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMHwY...om=PL&index=36

McEnroe said that both Pete and Richard possessed a nasty slice serve, which if you don't take the ball early and out in front, it will "clock you in the stomach!" Both guys moved the ball around the box, once the ball pitched, it moved around making clean returning difficult. I find that Henin uses a similar technique - and at Henin's height its actually a very good bet and an excellent strategic type of serving technique.

I think Melanie Oudin can look at developing more slice on her 2nd serve which would give her more control and better chance to get on the offensive off shorter returns. it would require Melanie having a faster 2nd serve swing to get the ball to move and bite off the surface more, plus like the guys I mentioned and Henin, the use of the body serve on a 2nd serve delivery becomes an excellent option.

Pov, thanks for the compliment.

[Cakeisgood]

She's not getting under the ball enough on her serve. For a girl of Mel's height, she really needs to explode into the ball from underneath to get clearance. Henin was great at this, but I really don't see her serve getting that much better.

I'd say the Hingis route for serving is the one she'll end up with. Changing the spin and pace in the hopes of confusing the opponent, but will get broken a lot.

And I'm not sure I'm seeing the hype with the slice. It's an excellent neutralizer, but it doesn't dig like Henin's, or even peak Ana's, who actually, prior to her meltdown had a superb slice. It's very floaty and deep, which is a good rally tool, but isn't adequate as an attacking shot. And if she chooses to slice like she does, her forehand breaks down way too much for her ground game to be truly effective. And she's gotta put a little loop in the forehand too. It's just too flat and it's always hitting the net.

And I'm not positive I see slam winner in her future. Top 10, maybe, but I see her as a Flavia type, winning some MMs here and there, and making a few good runs at GS's, but hey, who knows.

[Dunlop1]

Not a fan of the serve and the forehand. Of all her groundstrokes it is the 2 hander I like. It is very technically sound and well produced. The slice is ok too but I've yet to see her hit a very offensive skidding slice.

The forehand is a rather flat hit. It is a sort of modern take back with a traditional swing/follow through. If she can get MUCH stronger in her core and thighs, she can complete the modern forehand stroke like Henin and Kuznetsova and pound that topspin forehand. This is a hard task for a girl her size to accomplish however.

As for the serve, technically it is fine. She is NOT hitting with a forehand grip. Her's is a continental (the right grip).
Maybe she can toss the ball in front a little more to get power, but she is a small girl with small shoulders. Can't expect too much power.
Justine is the exception, not the norm.
The girls who serve big have big solid shoulders and/or are tall for great reach.
Justine is blessed with great natural timing and she worked her butt off to be really fit and strong.
It is not for everybody.

I can't see Oudin doing too much more with her serve.

[OsloErik]

I wouldn't pencil her in for a slam winner. I wouldn't necessarily preclude her from the top 10, but that seems a stretch. Here's my read:

Oudin has three big things going for her: her return of serve in general, her movement, and her head. Diving right in...

Neither of her groundstrokes are perfect. She uses a surprising amount of spin mixing for an American (no knock on Americans, just when was the last time ANYONE trained in the USA was known for their variety?) With her forehand, it sometimes looks like the technique is funny, but she also hits some awfully good down-the-line drives with it. Her backhand can be a controlling shot, but against a lot of players (both Italians, Sharapova, etc.) she has trouble keeping it deep if they make her scramble enough. However, she has a terrific return of serve, and she returns serve with two things in mind: getting the ball in play, and getting it deep and angled enough to open up some space. Her return is better off the forehand (if she could get better at slicing a return, she'd be nasty off either side). She has very good timing, and she does something that is underrated among most analysts: she gets ready. A lot of players just aren't in full ready position when they return serve, and Oudin does all the tiny little things that get every part of you zoned in. This is a blessing because she has a very, very attackable serve.

Movement-wise, the commentator who mentioned she moves like a jackrabbit was pretty spot-on. She has good anticipation and good instincts on the court. She's a scrambler, and that pays off with her game style. The bigger thing that her movement helps with is aspect #3: her head.

Oudin doesn't have a ton of options as a player. She isn't a huge server, she doesn't have a consistent weapon off the ground, yet she managed to make life very, very uncomfortable for a lot of players this summer. What Oudin brings to the table is a gameplan. A lot of players don't do their homework; many times it's because they think they are too good. Oudin seems remarkably sure of her limitations and her abilities, in a way some comparable players who haven't had as much recent success never seemed (Shahar Peer, for example). She's fiesty, she's fast, she can mess up the rhythm, and she's got a good return. She (and her coaching) have pieced together a very effective game style that matches those components. Ultimately, I think her serving woes are a big question mark. She just doesn't have the serve mastered. She serves like a junior. Of course, she WAS a junior until about six months ago. So it's premature to write her off as the annual counterpuncher with a serving problem (Shahar Peer, Dominika Cibulkova, etc.) who emerges and fades. Again, she could carve out a very respectable career if she develops a serve like some of the shorter doubles specialists with singles credentials (Sugiyama, Dechy, Lisa Raymond, for example) and goes for placement and disguise over pace. Dechy's serve gave many superior players fits for years, and it rarely cracked 100. Sugiyama served-and-volleyed her way to the top 10 without a top-speed serve. It's doable, and she's got a bit of time to do it, but even with that kind of adjustment, there isn't much about her game that screams Justine Henin (the shorty she's been compared to in the US, if I'm not mistaken).

As for the sheer technique of her serve, it's not wrong, it's just...she hasn't developed it. You can tell she's put effort into tactics, fitness, her groundies, but it just doesn't look that way for her serve. Her coach said that there's a range of speeds that any top 50 player can whomp (he cited 85-105, I think) and said that if she focuses on the outer edges of that range, it puts more pressure on the opponent to make the shot. I'm not sure if I buy that. I think she's just short and isn't willing to go for more at the risk of her %.

As for the effectiveness of her slice: it's not an aggressive shot. It's effective because it gives her time, it is easier to position on the court, and she can do it reliably. With the skills she has to maximize, I'd say it's a very effective shot. It's not Hingis slice, which was designed to put Hingis on the offensive, or Pam Shriver slice (god, that forehand...) which was designed to open the court. It's recovery slice, and she just happens to use it more than most players. Good on her, if you ask me.

[Golovinjured.]

Originally Posted by Cakeisgood

She's not getting under the ball enough on her serve. For a girl of Mel's height, she really needs to explode into the ball from underneath to get clearance. Henin was great at this, but I really don't see her serve getting that much better.

I'd say the Hingis route for serving is the one she'll end up with. Changing the spin and pace in the hopes of confusing the opponent, but will get broken a lot.

And I'm not sure I'm seeing the hype with the slice. It's an excellent neutralizer, but it doesn't dig like Henin's, or even peak Ana's, who actually, prior to her meltdown had a superb slice. It's very floaty and deep, which is a good rally tool, but isn't adequate as an attacking shot. And if she chooses to slice like she does, her forehand breaks down way too much for her ground game to be truly effective. And she's gotta put a little loop in the forehand too. It's just too flat and it's always hitting the net.

And I'm not positive I see slam winner in her future. Top 10, maybe, but I see her as a Flavia type, winning some MMs here and there, and making a few good runs at GS's, but hey, who knows.

I agree, there's no sting to her backhand slice. It's reliable, but I don't see the big fuss about it to be honest.

[tennisforadults]

Originally Posted by skanky~skanketta

While I don't want to comment on her forehand because it's probably her weakest stroke, Caroline's serve is MILES ahead of Melanie's. She can hit it hard when she wants to (and she's a relatively tall girl, so the trajectory is higher) and when she doesn't hit it hard, she places them really well. Caro's serve is terribly underrated. It's not very attackable.

I haven't really watched Melanie play... but I would definitely agree with this. Wozniacki does have a much better serve - can ace well and is difficult to attack.

[Elegante]

I watched her and I do not see the slice. It gets neither the bite or floating depth to be effective. It is merely getting points because girls of this era don't see slice....

Oudin falters in that her biggest weapon is also her biggest liability, her forehand. Your weapon should be more or less consistent. Of course, everything breaks down sometimes but for that to be her saving grace it should not desert her as much as it does.

[laurie]

There was one interesting thing that happened on Saturday against Schiavone in the Fed cup final which Francesca claerly discussed with the Italian Captain before the match.

Every time Melanie hit a high floaty backhand (ok moonball!) or a floated slice, Schiavone quickly came in and took the ball out of the air with fantastic volleys deep into the court which Melanie could do nothing about. That was fanstastic play by Francesca and it really got the crowd going as well.

So yes, Melanie didn't do well with her slice over the weekend.

[Dunlop1]

Well she also tends to hit the slice off the back foot, and doing so is very hard (for a slice) to get your body weight moving forward. Almost impossible to hit a penetrating, low slice from this position.

If the player is not moving forward, it is a good neutralizing tool and gives you time to get into position but if the player is attacking, you are toast.

You can hit a good slice with some float. Watch the variation in the Federer Slice. Some will be floaty and high AND DEEP, others will be low and short to pull the opponent in and make them hit up on the ball so he can set up the passing shot.

The slice can be an effective tool for her if she really develops it. Plus the girls are not used to slice anyways.