===============
AUSTRALIAN OPEN (Melbourne, Australia; outdoor hard (Rebound Ace); Grand Slam)
=============== http://www.australianopen.com/
Contents
--------
This post is a Nicole-filtered version of my full tournament-preview, which you can find at
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/jeldani/message/3827
or
http://www.wtaworld.com/showthread.php?t=280903
1. Photos (full version only)
2. UK TV-alert
3. First-round draw
4. Maria Sharapova preview (full version only)
5. Vera Zvonarëva preview (full version only)
6. Anna Chakvetadze preview (full version only)
7. Daniela Hantuchová preview (full version only)
8. Iroda Tulyaganova preview (full version only)
9. Nicole Vaidišová preview
10. Andrew's wishes (full version only)
11. Qualifying (full version only)
12. Order of Play for Monday
--------------
2. UK TV-alert
--------------
The evening-sessions of the Australian Open will be televised on BBCi from 08:30 GMT each day of the tournament (digital viewers press Red or select the appropriate Freeview-channel - 301 or 302, I don't know which yet).
My understanding is that this coverage will consist of the women's match on the evening-session of the Rod Laver Arena (today Serena Williams v Mara Santangelo), followed by the men's match, followed by recorded coverage of any Andy Murray match that will have taken place during the day-session (his matches will also be broadcast live on BBCi during the British night, and possibly on BBC 1 or BBC 2 if he reaches the third round - I mention this just in case they happen to slip any women's tennis into such coverage; in 2002, they showed five minutes of Daniela Hantuchová against Venus Williams).
Last year, the women's semi-finals took place during the day-session, and recorded coverage was shown on BBCi following live coverage of the evening-session that day.
The women's and men's singles-finals will be broadcast live on BBC 1 and BBC 2, respectively.
-------------------
3. First-round draw
-------------------
3.1 Top quarter: Sharapova, Zvonarëva, Chakvetadze
--------------------------------------------------
* MARIA SHARAPOVA [1,EF] v Camille Pin (DAVAI MARIA!)
* Roberta Vinci v Anastassia Rodionova (¡forza Roberta!)
* Renata Vorácová [Q] v Meghann Shaughnessy
* Emmanuelle Gagliardi v TATHIANA GARBIN [30]
* VERA ZVONARËVA [22,EF] v Tzipora Obziler (DAVAI VERA!)
* Séverine Brémond v Tamira Paszek [Q] (allez Séverine!)
* Varvara Lepchenko v Agnieszka Radwanska (davai Varvara!)
* ANA IVANOVIC [13,DF] v Vania King (ajde Ana!)
* ANNA CHAKVETADZE [12,EF] v Sybille Bammer (DAVAI ANNA!)
* Yulia Beygelzimer v Laura Granville
* Sophie Ferguson [WC] v Jelena Kostanic Tosic
* Klára Zakopalová [Q] v SAMANTHA STOSUR [24] (pojdme Klára!)
* FLAVIA PENNETTA [28,DF] v Kaia Kanepi (¡forza Flavia!)
* Alicia Molik [WC] v Chan,Yung-Jan (go Alicia!)
* Peng,Shuai v Andreja Klepac [Q] (jia you Shuai!)
* Madison Brengle [WC] v PATTY SCHNYDER [8]
3.2 Second quarter: Hantuchová
------------------------------
* KIM CLIJSTERS [4] v Vasilisa Bardina (davai Vasilisa!)
* Akiko Morigami v Tsvetana Pironkova (my Reason says Akiko, but my Passion says Tsvetana)
* Nicole Pratt v Virginie Razzano
* ALYONA BONDARENKO [29] v Stéphanie Cohen-Aloro [Q] (davai Alyona!)
* Sandra Záhlavová [Q] v ANNA-LENA GRÖNEFELD [17] (pojdme Sandra!)
* Ashley Harkleroad v Yuan,Meng (go Ashley!)
* Aravane Rezaï v Emilie Loit (allez Aravane!)
* DANIELA HANTUCHOVÁ [15,EF] v Alizé Cornet (PODME DANIELA!)
* Ekaterina Bychkova v DINARA SAFINA [9] (davai Ekaterina!)
* Youlia Fedossova [WC] v Catalina Castaño
* Ahsha Rolle v Lourdes Domínguez Lino
* Elena Bovina v LI,NA [19]
* Aiko Nakamura v ELENI DANIILIDOU [32] (ganbatte Aiko!)
* Sania Mirza [DF] v Olga Savchuk (go Sania!)
* Alla Kudryavtseva [Q] v Emma Laine
* Nathalie Dechy v MARTINA HINGIS [6]
3.3 Third quarter: Tulyaganova
------------------------------
* NADIA PETROVA [5] v Tamarine Tanasugarn
* Gisela Dulko [DF] v Sun,Tiantian (¡vamos Gisela!)
* Michaëlla Krajícek v Anne Kremer [Q] (kom op Michaëlla!)
* Serena Williams v MARA SANTANGELO [27]
* MARION BARTOLI [18,S] v Vera Dushevina (allez Marion!)
* Yuliana Fedak v Victoria Azarenka (davai Yuliana!)
* Virginia Ruano Pascual v Melinda Czink (¡vamos Virginia!)
* Aleksandra Wozniak v JELENA JANKOVIC [11]
* SHAHAR PEER [16] v Romina Oprandi (kadima Shahar!)
* Edina Gallovits v Meilen Tu
* Zuzana Ondrášková v Clarisa Fernández (pojdme Zuzana!)
* TATIANA GOLOVIN [20,DF] v Anna Smashnova (allez Tatiana!)
* MARIA KIRILENKO [26,DF] v Karolina Šprem [DF] (my loyalty Maria)
* Julia Vakulenko [Q] v Elena Likhovtseva (may the better win!)
* Iroda Tulyaganova [WC,EF] v Monique Adamczak [WC] (DAVAI IRODA!)
* Jessica Moore [WC] v SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA [3]
3.4 Bottom quarter: Vaidišová
-----------------------------
* ELENA DEMENTIEVA [7] v Stéphanie Foretz (davai Elena!)
* Martina Müller v Jorgelina Cravero [Q]
* Maria Elena Camerin v Kirsten Flipkens (my loyalty to Maria Elena)
* Elena Vesnina v ANABEL MEDINA GARRIGUES [25] (davai Elena!)
* KATARINA SREBOTNIK [21] v Casey Dell'Acqua [WC] (dajmo Katarina!)
* Iveta Benešová v Galina Voskoboeva (pojdme Iveta!)
* Jarmila Gajdošová v Milagros Sequera
* NICOLE VAIDIŠOVÁ [10,EF] v Jill Craybas (pojdme Nicole!)
* FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE [14] v Sandra Klösel
* Lucie Šafárová v Alberta Brianti (pojdme Lucie!)
* Laura Pous Tio v Anastasiya Yakimova
* Sofia Arvidsson v AI SUGIYAMA [23]
* ZHENG,JIE [31] v Julia Schruff
* Martina Suchá v Eva Birnerová (podme Martina!)
* Marta Domachowska v Olga Poutchkova (dawaj Marta!)
* Shenay Perry v AMÉLIE MAURESMO [2] (anyone but Mauresmo)
---------------------------
9. Nicole Vaidišová preview
---------------------------
9.1 First round
---------------
How worried should we be about #64-ranked Jill Craybas, who beat a 15-year-old Nicole 6-2 6-4 at ITF Midland 2004? Craybas reached the semi-finals of Auckland with wins over Aiko Nakamura, Gisela Dulko and Paola Suárez, then lost to Vera Zvonarëva. She then failed to qualify for Sydney.
So I guess the answer is: a little bit worried, but not much - especially if Nicole plays like she did at Sydney and not like she did at Hong Kong!
9.2 Second round
----------------
#74 Jarmila Gajdošová or #95 Milagros Sequera, whom a 15-year-old Nicole beat 6-4 6-1 en route to the Vancouver 2004 title? It should be a routine win for Nicole either way.
9.3 Third round
---------------
Katarina Srebotnik [21] is a talented player with spider-like court-craft, but hardly a name that fills me with dread - especially since 15-year-old Nicole beat her 7-5 6-1 at Miami 2005. And that was the score by which Katarina lost to Li,Na in the quarter-finals of Sydney, having beaten Svetlana Kuznetsova by retirement.
I would prefer an all-Czech match with beautiful Iveta Benešová. Iveta is #84, and her only singles-action so far in 2007 has been a first-round loss on the Gold Coast, where she was a doubles-finalist with the girl she plays in the first round here: Galina Voskoboeva.
Iveta has the history to give Nicole a very interesting match. She beat Nicole in their only previous meeting: 2-6 6-4 6-4 at Hobart 2005 (she also won her only previous match against Srebotnik). She also knocked Mary Pierce out of the Australian Open 2006.
9.4 Fourth round
----------------
Reaching the fourth round again is the result that I expect of Nicole at this Australian Open. She would most likely be facing Elena Dementieva [7], who beat her 3-6 6-3 6-2 at Hong Kong, and also took a set off Maria Sharapova.
Dementieva also beat Nicole in their only match on the WTA Tour: 3-6 6-1 6-2 at Tokyo 2006.
I've often wondered why big servers like Maria and Nicole struggle as much as they do against Dementieva and her weak sliced serve, which produces so many double faults at key moments, and can only go to the right-hander's forehand. I think Dementieva makes up for it with her unusual ability to neutralise her opponent's initiative early in the rally, as well as superior fitness and a great crosscourt forehand.
There is room for optimism if the same Nicole that lost to #166 Yan,Zi could take a set off Dementieva in Hong Kong, and then improve sufficiently to reach the semi-finals of Sydney with a 6-4 6-2 win over Ana Ivanovic and a 6-4 4-6 6-4 loss to the on-form Jelena Jankovic.
A less-likely fourth-round opponent is Anabel Medina Garrigues [25], who has beaten Dementieva before, and featured in the Hopman Cup final a week ago. But I'd be very surprised if the quarter-finalist that emerges from this match is anyone other than Nicole or Dementieva - either of whom is a potential finalist from such an open bottom half.
9.5 Quarter-finals
------------------
Defending champion Amélie Mauresmo [2] was thrashed 7-5 6-0 by Jelena Jankovic at Sydney, having almost lost her opening match to Tatiana Golovin, who loves to choke.
Mauresmo also lost early at Sydney and Eastbourne 2006 - the weeks before the Grand Slams that she won - but this time, she admitted that she is struggling with her game. And of course defending a Grand Slam champion is a tremendous amount of pressure, especially for a famous choker such as Mauresmo.
Nicole's head-to-head against Mauresmo is 2-2. Mauresmo won their first two meetings: 7-5 7-5 at Philadelphia 2005, and 6-1 6-1 in 4r Australian Open 2006. But Nicole has won their last two: 6-7 6-1 6-2 in 4r French Open 2006, and 1-6 7-5 7-6 at Moscow 2006. So Nicole has the momentum against Mauresmo, and also did much better at Sydney.
If Mauresmo doesn't make it to the quarter-finals - which is quite conceivable after Sydney - then that eighth of the draw is wide open. The other seeds are Francesca Schiavone [14], Ai Sugiyama [23] and Zheng,Jie [31], while youngsters Lucie Šafárová, Marta Domachowska and Olga Poutchkova may also pose a threat - if not Shenay Perry in the first round.
I don't think it will be that easy to get rid of Mauresmo, though. Jankovic - okay, she's on great form at the moment - but for the players in her eighth, it's very hard to seal a victory against a top-three player - even an off-form one. Mauresmo still has time to get her act together, and any match she wins will make her more dangerous to the rest of the field.
9.6 Semi-finals
---------------
The third quarter of the draw is the most open, with Svetlana Kuznetsova [3] and Nadia Petrova [5] having withdrawn from Sydney illness and injury, respectively. That could be good news for Nicole, who is 0-2 against Kuznetsova and 1-3 against Petrova (the one she won was the Bangkok 2005 final!).
I predict that Jelena Jankovic [11] will emerge as the semi-finalist from that quarter. She is on great form, having won Auckland and almost beaten Clijsters in the Sydney final (served for the match in the second set and had match-points) - but 'almost' is the operative word. Jankovic also choked dramatically when leading Justine Henin-Hardenne 6-4 *4-2 (40/30) in the semi-finals of the US Open, then lost every game in the rest of the match. Fatigue may also be a factor after playing two full weeks before the Australian Open.
Nicole leads Jankovic 4-2 head to head. She lost to her 5-7 6-3 6-2 in the third round of the US Open 2006, and 6-4 4-6 6-4 at Sydney. Jankovic would have to be the favourite on Auckland and Sydney form, but Nicole would certainly have a fighting chance.
Imagine it: Nicole v Jankovic in the semi-finals, having both blown golden opportunities to win their previous Grand Slam semi-finals! It would probably be another three-setter, and come down to who's stronger mentally - and that might well be Nicole, given Jankovic's two chokes as mentioned above.
My ideal semi-finalist from that quarter would be Iroda Tulyaganova, who will be playing her first Grand Slam since Wimbledon 2003 due to an elbow-injury that ruined the next three years for her. A former world #16, Iroda is making her way back up the rankings - currently #131. She won the Asian Championships last September to earn her wild card here.
Iroda is one of the most exciting, powerful, versatile and athletic players I have ever seen, and with the draw she's got, I don't think a quarter-final is out of the question!
9.7 Final
---------
Realistically, we'll be looking at either Maria Sharapova or Kim Clijsters as the finalist from the top half - should those two meet in the semi-finals, as per their seedings, I'll want Maria to win more than anything else about this Australian Open (Maria beat Clijsters in their last two meetings on the WTA Tour, but Clijsters leads their head-to-head 4-2, and also beat Maria in an exhibition at Hong Kong a week ago).
Nicole v Maria that would be a very exciting match - not just because they're both members of my Eternal Fanship, but because Nicole is the best player who is younger than Maria, and certainly has the weapons (particularly her serve and forehand) to win many Grand Slams.
Maria, you see, has never lost a WTA Tour or Grand Slam match to a player who is younger than herself! But 15-year-old Nicole beat her 5-3 in a World Team Tennis rubber on 14th July 2004 - eleven days after Maria won Wimbledon!
Nicole trails Clijsters 0-2 head-to-head, both in straight sets. I don't think I'd enjoy that final, and I could only hope that Nicole would be on top form to have got so far.
----------------------------
12. Order of Play for Monday
----------------------------
Vodafone Arena (start 11:00 AEST = 00:00 GMT)
MS 1r: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v ANDY RODDICK [6]
WS 1r: NICOLE VAIDIŠOVÁ [10,EF] v Jill Craybas
MS 1r: IVAN LJUBICIC [4] v Mardy Fish
WS 1r: Jessica Moore [WC] v SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA [3]
Full order of play:
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/schedule/
--
Dr. Andrew Broad
http://geocities.com/andrewbroad/
http://geocities.com/andrewbroad/tennis/
http://geocities.com/andrewbroad/tennis/vaidi/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Nicole_Vaidisova/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/nicole-vaidisova/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/jeldani/
AUSTRALIAN OPEN (Melbourne, Australia; outdoor hard (Rebound Ace); Grand Slam)
=============== http://www.australianopen.com/
Contents
--------
This post is a Nicole-filtered version of my full tournament-preview, which you can find at
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/jeldani/message/3827
or
http://www.wtaworld.com/showthread.php?t=280903
1. Photos (full version only)
2. UK TV-alert
3. First-round draw
4. Maria Sharapova preview (full version only)
5. Vera Zvonarëva preview (full version only)
6. Anna Chakvetadze preview (full version only)
7. Daniela Hantuchová preview (full version only)
8. Iroda Tulyaganova preview (full version only)
9. Nicole Vaidišová preview
10. Andrew's wishes (full version only)
11. Qualifying (full version only)
12. Order of Play for Monday
--------------
2. UK TV-alert
--------------
The evening-sessions of the Australian Open will be televised on BBCi from 08:30 GMT each day of the tournament (digital viewers press Red or select the appropriate Freeview-channel - 301 or 302, I don't know which yet).
My understanding is that this coverage will consist of the women's match on the evening-session of the Rod Laver Arena (today Serena Williams v Mara Santangelo), followed by the men's match, followed by recorded coverage of any Andy Murray match that will have taken place during the day-session (his matches will also be broadcast live on BBCi during the British night, and possibly on BBC 1 or BBC 2 if he reaches the third round - I mention this just in case they happen to slip any women's tennis into such coverage; in 2002, they showed five minutes of Daniela Hantuchová against Venus Williams).
Last year, the women's semi-finals took place during the day-session, and recorded coverage was shown on BBCi following live coverage of the evening-session that day.
The women's and men's singles-finals will be broadcast live on BBC 1 and BBC 2, respectively.
-------------------
3. First-round draw
-------------------
3.1 Top quarter: Sharapova, Zvonarëva, Chakvetadze
--------------------------------------------------
* MARIA SHARAPOVA [1,EF] v Camille Pin (DAVAI MARIA!)
* Roberta Vinci v Anastassia Rodionova (¡forza Roberta!)
* Renata Vorácová [Q] v Meghann Shaughnessy
* Emmanuelle Gagliardi v TATHIANA GARBIN [30]
* VERA ZVONARËVA [22,EF] v Tzipora Obziler (DAVAI VERA!)
* Séverine Brémond v Tamira Paszek [Q] (allez Séverine!)
* Varvara Lepchenko v Agnieszka Radwanska (davai Varvara!)
* ANA IVANOVIC [13,DF] v Vania King (ajde Ana!)
* ANNA CHAKVETADZE [12,EF] v Sybille Bammer (DAVAI ANNA!)
* Yulia Beygelzimer v Laura Granville
* Sophie Ferguson [WC] v Jelena Kostanic Tosic
* Klára Zakopalová [Q] v SAMANTHA STOSUR [24] (pojdme Klára!)
* FLAVIA PENNETTA [28,DF] v Kaia Kanepi (¡forza Flavia!)
* Alicia Molik [WC] v Chan,Yung-Jan (go Alicia!)
* Peng,Shuai
* Madison Brengle [WC] v PATTY SCHNYDER [8]
3.2 Second quarter: Hantuchová
------------------------------
* KIM CLIJSTERS [4] v Vasilisa Bardina (davai Vasilisa!)
* Akiko Morigami
* Nicole Pratt v Virginie Razzano
* ALYONA BONDARENKO [29] v Stéphanie Cohen-Aloro [Q] (davai Alyona!)
* Sandra Záhlavová [Q] v ANNA-LENA GRÖNEFELD [17] (pojdme Sandra!)
* Ashley Harkleroad v Yuan,Meng (go Ashley!)
* Aravane Rezaï v Emilie Loit (allez Aravane!)
* DANIELA HANTUCHOVÁ [15,EF] v Alizé Cornet (PODME DANIELA!)
* Ekaterina Bychkova v DINARA SAFINA [9] (davai Ekaterina!)
* Youlia Fedossova [WC] v Catalina Castaño
* Ahsha Rolle v Lourdes Domínguez Lino
* Elena Bovina v LI,NA [19]
* Aiko Nakamura
* Sania Mirza [DF] v Olga Savchuk (go Sania!)
* Alla Kudryavtseva [Q] v Emma Laine
* Nathalie Dechy v MARTINA HINGIS [6]
3.3 Third quarter: Tulyaganova
------------------------------
* NADIA PETROVA [5] v Tamarine Tanasugarn
* Gisela Dulko [DF] v Sun,Tiantian (¡vamos Gisela!)
* Michaëlla Krajícek v Anne Kremer [Q] (kom op Michaëlla!)
* Serena Williams v MARA SANTANGELO [27]
* MARION BARTOLI [18,S] v Vera Dushevina (allez Marion!)
* Yuliana Fedak v Victoria Azarenka (davai Yuliana!)
* Virginia Ruano Pascual v Melinda Czink (¡vamos Virginia!)
* Aleksandra Wozniak v JELENA JANKOVIC [11]
* SHAHAR PEER [16] v Romina Oprandi (kadima Shahar!)
* Edina Gallovits v Meilen Tu
* Zuzana Ondrášková v Clarisa Fernández (pojdme Zuzana!)
* TATIANA GOLOVIN [20,DF] v Anna Smashnova (allez Tatiana!)
* MARIA KIRILENKO [26,DF] v Karolina Šprem [DF] (my loyalty Maria)
* Julia Vakulenko [Q] v Elena Likhovtseva (may the better win!)
* Iroda Tulyaganova [WC,EF] v Monique Adamczak [WC] (DAVAI IRODA!)
* Jessica Moore [WC] v SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA [3]
3.4 Bottom quarter: Vaidišová
-----------------------------
* ELENA DEMENTIEVA [7] v Stéphanie Foretz (davai Elena!)
* Martina Müller v Jorgelina Cravero [Q]
* Maria Elena Camerin v Kirsten Flipkens (my loyalty to Maria Elena)
* Elena Vesnina v ANABEL MEDINA GARRIGUES [25] (davai Elena!)
* KATARINA SREBOTNIK [21] v Casey Dell'Acqua [WC] (dajmo Katarina!)
* Iveta Benešová v Galina Voskoboeva (pojdme Iveta!)
* Jarmila Gajdošová v Milagros Sequera
* NICOLE VAIDIŠOVÁ [10,EF] v Jill Craybas (pojdme Nicole!)
* FRANCESCA SCHIAVONE [14] v Sandra Klösel
* Lucie Šafárová v Alberta Brianti (pojdme Lucie!)
* Laura Pous Tio v Anastasiya Yakimova
* Sofia Arvidsson v AI SUGIYAMA [23]
* ZHENG,JIE [31] v Julia Schruff
* Martina Suchá v Eva Birnerová (podme Martina!)
* Marta Domachowska v Olga Poutchkova (dawaj Marta!)
* Shenay Perry v AMÉLIE MAURESMO [2] (anyone but Mauresmo)
---------------------------
9. Nicole Vaidišová preview
---------------------------
9.1 First round
---------------
How worried should we be about #64-ranked Jill Craybas, who beat a 15-year-old Nicole 6-2 6-4 at ITF Midland 2004? Craybas reached the semi-finals of Auckland with wins over Aiko Nakamura, Gisela Dulko and Paola Suárez, then lost to Vera Zvonarëva. She then failed to qualify for Sydney.
So I guess the answer is: a little bit worried, but not much - especially if Nicole plays like she did at Sydney and not like she did at Hong Kong!
9.2 Second round
----------------
#74 Jarmila Gajdošová or #95 Milagros Sequera, whom a 15-year-old Nicole beat 6-4 6-1 en route to the Vancouver 2004 title? It should be a routine win for Nicole either way.
9.3 Third round
---------------
Katarina Srebotnik [21] is a talented player with spider-like court-craft, but hardly a name that fills me with dread - especially since 15-year-old Nicole beat her 7-5 6-1 at Miami 2005. And that was the score by which Katarina lost to Li,Na in the quarter-finals of Sydney, having beaten Svetlana Kuznetsova by retirement.
I would prefer an all-Czech match with beautiful Iveta Benešová. Iveta is #84, and her only singles-action so far in 2007 has been a first-round loss on the Gold Coast, where she was a doubles-finalist with the girl she plays in the first round here: Galina Voskoboeva.
Iveta has the history to give Nicole a very interesting match. She beat Nicole in their only previous meeting: 2-6 6-4 6-4 at Hobart 2005 (she also won her only previous match against Srebotnik). She also knocked Mary Pierce out of the Australian Open 2006.
9.4 Fourth round
----------------
Reaching the fourth round again is the result that I expect of Nicole at this Australian Open. She would most likely be facing Elena Dementieva [7], who beat her 3-6 6-3 6-2 at Hong Kong, and also took a set off Maria Sharapova.
Dementieva also beat Nicole in their only match on the WTA Tour: 3-6 6-1 6-2 at Tokyo 2006.
I've often wondered why big servers like Maria and Nicole struggle as much as they do against Dementieva and her weak sliced serve, which produces so many double faults at key moments, and can only go to the right-hander's forehand. I think Dementieva makes up for it with her unusual ability to neutralise her opponent's initiative early in the rally, as well as superior fitness and a great crosscourt forehand.
There is room for optimism if the same Nicole that lost to #166 Yan,Zi could take a set off Dementieva in Hong Kong, and then improve sufficiently to reach the semi-finals of Sydney with a 6-4 6-2 win over Ana Ivanovic and a 6-4 4-6 6-4 loss to the on-form Jelena Jankovic.
A less-likely fourth-round opponent is Anabel Medina Garrigues [25], who has beaten Dementieva before, and featured in the Hopman Cup final a week ago. But I'd be very surprised if the quarter-finalist that emerges from this match is anyone other than Nicole or Dementieva - either of whom is a potential finalist from such an open bottom half.
9.5 Quarter-finals
------------------
Defending champion Amélie Mauresmo [2] was thrashed 7-5 6-0 by Jelena Jankovic at Sydney, having almost lost her opening match to Tatiana Golovin, who loves to choke.
Mauresmo also lost early at Sydney and Eastbourne 2006 - the weeks before the Grand Slams that she won - but this time, she admitted that she is struggling with her game. And of course defending a Grand Slam champion is a tremendous amount of pressure, especially for a famous choker such as Mauresmo.
Nicole's head-to-head against Mauresmo is 2-2. Mauresmo won their first two meetings: 7-5 7-5 at Philadelphia 2005, and 6-1 6-1 in 4r Australian Open 2006. But Nicole has won their last two: 6-7 6-1 6-2 in 4r French Open 2006, and 1-6 7-5 7-6 at Moscow 2006. So Nicole has the momentum against Mauresmo, and also did much better at Sydney.
If Mauresmo doesn't make it to the quarter-finals - which is quite conceivable after Sydney - then that eighth of the draw is wide open. The other seeds are Francesca Schiavone [14], Ai Sugiyama [23] and Zheng,Jie [31], while youngsters Lucie Šafárová, Marta Domachowska and Olga Poutchkova may also pose a threat - if not Shenay Perry in the first round.
I don't think it will be that easy to get rid of Mauresmo, though. Jankovic - okay, she's on great form at the moment - but for the players in her eighth, it's very hard to seal a victory against a top-three player - even an off-form one. Mauresmo still has time to get her act together, and any match she wins will make her more dangerous to the rest of the field.
9.6 Semi-finals
---------------
The third quarter of the draw is the most open, with Svetlana Kuznetsova [3] and Nadia Petrova [5] having withdrawn from Sydney illness and injury, respectively. That could be good news for Nicole, who is 0-2 against Kuznetsova and 1-3 against Petrova (the one she won was the Bangkok 2005 final!).
I predict that Jelena Jankovic [11] will emerge as the semi-finalist from that quarter. She is on great form, having won Auckland and almost beaten Clijsters in the Sydney final (served for the match in the second set and had match-points) - but 'almost' is the operative word. Jankovic also choked dramatically when leading Justine Henin-Hardenne 6-4 *4-2 (40/30) in the semi-finals of the US Open, then lost every game in the rest of the match. Fatigue may also be a factor after playing two full weeks before the Australian Open.
Nicole leads Jankovic 4-2 head to head. She lost to her 5-7 6-3 6-2 in the third round of the US Open 2006, and 6-4 4-6 6-4 at Sydney. Jankovic would have to be the favourite on Auckland and Sydney form, but Nicole would certainly have a fighting chance.
Imagine it: Nicole v Jankovic in the semi-finals, having both blown golden opportunities to win their previous Grand Slam semi-finals! It would probably be another three-setter, and come down to who's stronger mentally - and that might well be Nicole, given Jankovic's two chokes as mentioned above.
My ideal semi-finalist from that quarter would be Iroda Tulyaganova, who will be playing her first Grand Slam since Wimbledon 2003 due to an elbow-injury that ruined the next three years for her. A former world #16, Iroda is making her way back up the rankings - currently #131. She won the Asian Championships last September to earn her wild card here.
Iroda is one of the most exciting, powerful, versatile and athletic players I have ever seen, and with the draw she's got, I don't think a quarter-final is out of the question!
9.7 Final
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Realistically, we'll be looking at either Maria Sharapova or Kim Clijsters as the finalist from the top half - should those two meet in the semi-finals, as per their seedings, I'll want Maria to win more than anything else about this Australian Open (Maria beat Clijsters in their last two meetings on the WTA Tour, but Clijsters leads their head-to-head 4-2, and also beat Maria in an exhibition at Hong Kong a week ago).
Nicole v Maria that would be a very exciting match - not just because they're both members of my Eternal Fanship, but because Nicole is the best player who is younger than Maria, and certainly has the weapons (particularly her serve and forehand) to win many Grand Slams.
Maria, you see, has never lost a WTA Tour or Grand Slam match to a player who is younger than herself! But 15-year-old Nicole beat her 5-3 in a World Team Tennis rubber on 14th July 2004 - eleven days after Maria won Wimbledon!
Nicole trails Clijsters 0-2 head-to-head, both in straight sets. I don't think I'd enjoy that final, and I could only hope that Nicole would be on top form to have got so far.
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12. Order of Play for Monday
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Vodafone Arena (start 11:00 AEST = 00:00 GMT)
MS 1r: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v ANDY RODDICK [6]
WS 1r: NICOLE VAIDIŠOVÁ [10,EF] v Jill Craybas
MS 1r: IVAN LJUBICIC [4] v Mardy Fish
WS 1r: Jessica Moore [WC] v SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA [3]
Full order of play:
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores/schedule/
--
Dr. Andrew Broad
http://geocities.com/andrewbroad/
http://geocities.com/andrewbroad/tennis/
http://geocities.com/andrewbroad/tennis/vaidi/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Nicole_Vaidisova/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/nicole-vaidisova/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/jeldani/