Originally Posted by Abuttons
My quasi-fiction, half-serious theory about the Maria-Serena history of matches is that the turning point in Serena's favor was when Maria blew two match points in the AO 2005 semifinal.
That would have made three consecutive victories for Maria, all of them in major tournaments and I somehow think it would have left more confidence in Maria that she can seriously challenge Serena any time (who, by the way, did not win another title until.....AO 2007).
It's a pure conjecture, clearly.....
I used to believe that theory as well. At the time, maybe it would have led to a couple of more Maria victories while Serena wasn't in great physical form.
But, at this point, the difference between them isn't a confidence issue at all. It's purely strength. Nobody can possibly expect Maria or the other ladies to withstand that power over 2 or 3 sets. Serena hits the ball TOO FREAKING HARD. And it's relentless point after point. It's really an unfair playing field right now on the WTA and I'm seriously convinced Serena could easily be a top 10 player if she played on the ATP. She serves harder or nearly as hard as the majority of the men's players.
Any WTA player's only hope is a 40-50 UFE fest from Serena because it's the only way matches are competitive. And that US Open final is a prime example. I laugh at commentators who continually point to that match as evidence that Vika is making progress against Serena. If you look at the stats, Azarenka was extremely mediocre. She had several more errors than winners and was on her heels most of the points. The difference was that Serena had one of those matches where she went into a daze and was exploding with errors left and right, donating the second set to Vika and digging a 3rd set hole. That match had NOTHING to do with Vika. Every match is always decided with what Serena is or isn't doing. And unfortunately for everyone else, those error-fest performances that were pretty frequent from Serena are all but gone.
It's child's play. Every time I watch her these days, she looks almost bored because everything is so easy. She's probably only giving 60-70% effort and is still embarrassing everyone.
Barring injury, Serena IS going to win all 4 slams this year. And there's nothing any other player can do about it, no matter how much anyone crunches the numbers and projects who matches up best with her.