Originally Posted by ma re
Tereza is definately doing good lately, this being her 3rd consecutive QF on a 50k. But this next match against Svitolina is pretty important cause this is the sort of opposition that Tereza needs to get acustomed to defeating if she wants to keep moving forward.
Svitolina qualified for USO this year, beating Savchuk, LDB and Savinykh along the way, before losing to Ivanovic, so it'll definately be a challenge. But here's the deal; Tereza has accumulated many results where she got a similar amount of points as for reaching this QF, and this week she's even defending a 10k title, so if she loses she'll practically gain nothing. Even if she weren't defending anything, these points would move her only 4-5 spots ahead, while even a semi wouldn't get her more than 10 spots forward.
She is approaching another "make or break moment", cause soon she'll have to reach another level again, in order to continue her progress. In three weeks she'll again be defending more than a dozen points and between mid November and mid December around 50. So a lot of job is ahead, and plenty at stake. Her place in the Melbourne qualies is not in danger, but her place in the top 200 definately is, if she doesn't do well in the next 10 weeks. Hope she's ready for it all.
Everything you say is true, ma re. I'm hopeful that Tereza can rise to meet the next challenges ahead of her, as she has done until now. In the last few months she has played better opponents than ever before. She has beaten some of them, and she appears to learn from her defeats.
I'm not saying Tereza will become a top 50 player, but top 150 is doable. Even if she doesn't defend any points until the end of 2012 (which is unlikely), she'll drop down to only about 210, which isn't terrible. After that, she's not defending any points until early March, so she has plenty of time to make up for it. Beyond that her points are extremely well distributed among tournaments and throughout the year. That greatly reduces the pressure on her to do well at any one tournament.
By the way, a good, achievable goal for Tereza for next year would be to win 1-2 matches at GS qualies (QR1 is worth 40 points).