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-   -   Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way. (http://www.tennisforum.com/showthread.php?t=442549)

DownInAHole Aug 13th, 2011 01:07 AM

Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
I just crunched some numbers and I am not 100% sure but it looks like if the rankings were based on results from Stuttgart (April 18)-present that Caroline would be ranked seventh. See below:


1) Petra Kvitova (3825)
2) Maria Sharapova (3585)
3) Na Li (3190)
4) Viktoria Azarenka (2842)
5) Marion Bartoli (2602)
6) Francesca Schiavone (2311)

7) Caroline Wozniacki (2076)

8) Sabine Lisicki (1822)
9) Agnieszka Radwanska (1766)
10) Vera Zvonareva (1745)
11) Andrea Petkovic (1636)

Most people agree that Caroline's greatest strength is her consistency. Week after week she is typically better than any other player on the tour but if the above numbers are correct Caroline has not even been in the top five as far as consistency goes for the last several months. I think that most of us were expecting a quick turnaround once she hit the American hardcourts, and that may still happen, but I do think it is worth noting that for some time now Caroline's greatest strength, the one thing that she has been better at than the rest of the tour, seems to have deserted her.

I may have even given Caroline more points than I should have. For her result in Toronto does she earn 70 points or 1?

Burisleif Aug 13th, 2011 01:36 AM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Why Stuttgart?

I'm Betwattled.

Protoss Aug 13th, 2011 01:55 AM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DownInAHole (Post 20044292)
I just crunched some numbers and I am not 100% sure but it looks like if the rankings were based on results from Stuttgart (April 18)-present that Caroline would be ranked seventh. See below:


1) Petra Kvitova (3825)
2) Maria Sharapova (3585)
3) Na Li (3190)
4) Viktoria Azarenka (2842)
5) Marion Bartoli (2602)
6) Francesca Schiavone (2311)

7) Caroline Wozniacki (2145)

8) Sabine Lisicki (1822)
9) Agnieszka Radwanska (1766)
10) Vera Zvonareva (1745)
11) Andrea Petkovic (1636)

Most people agree that Caroline's greatest strength is her consistency. Week after week she is typically better than any other player on the tour but if the above numbers are correct Caroline has not even been in the top five as far as consistency goes for the last several months. I think that most of us were expecting a quick turnaround once she hit the American hardcourts, and that may still happen, but I do think it is worth noting that for some time now Caroline's greatest strength, the one thing that she has been better at than the rest of the tour, seems to have deserted her.

I may have even given Caroline more points than I should have. For her result in Toronto does she earn 70 points or 1?

It's 1 point for losing in the 2nd round after having a 1st round bye.

DownInAHole Aug 13th, 2011 02:04 AM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Burisleif (Post 20044484)
Why Stuttgart?

I'm Betwattled.

Start of the clay season. Seems like a good break point from the Australian/American hardcourt season.

DownInAHole Aug 13th, 2011 02:05 AM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Protoss (Post 20044549)
It's 1 point for losing in the 2nd round after having a 1st round bye.

Thanks. It has been fixed.

Burisleif Aug 13th, 2011 02:17 AM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Burisleif (Post 20044484)
Why Stuttgart?

I'm Betwattled.

^^^

DownInAHole Aug 13th, 2011 02:20 AM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Burisleif (Post 20044612)
^^^

The fact that you are not disputing my findings leads me to believe that I am on to something.:p

Burisleif Aug 13th, 2011 02:33 AM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DownInAHole (Post 20044625)
The fact that you are not disputing my findings leads me to believe that I am on to something.:p

Actually I'm questioning your credibility, as so far your pick, If I were you I would be running very fast :)

I know your a pessimist, but I'm waiting for the explanation for arbitrary pick. It makes no sense.

DownInAHole Aug 13th, 2011 10:50 AM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Burisleif (Post 20044670)
Actually I'm questioning your credibility, as so far your pick, If I were you I would be running very fast :)

I know your a pessimist, but I'm waiting for the explanation for arbitrary pick. It makes no sense.

I do not quite understand what you mean in your first sentence. What is wrong with my credibility? I probably did make some small errors in my point totals, which I fully admitted, but as far as who has gathered the most points since Stuttgart I believe my list is accurate. If you see an errors please point them out and I will correct them. Also, who should I be running from?:scratch:

I already explained my "arbitrary" pick. Maybe you do not like the explanation but I think it makes sound sense. But I will try to explain it again. January is essentially the "Australian" leg of the tour. February is harder to classify but in Caroline's case it was her middle eastern leg of the tour. March consists of American hardcourts and April is the beginning of the clay season. I guess I could have started with Charleston but that takes place in America and is on a different surface, it is kind of a transitional event that does not fit into the hardcourt or claycourt seasons. So I started with Caroline's first (red) clay tournament which was Stuttgart. It makes perfect sense to me. If you divide the season into three parts January-April is essentially the first hardcourt season, April-July is the clay/grass season and July-October is the second hardcourt season. It seems crystal clear to me, I'm not sure what you are failing to grasp. My point is that starting in the middle of the season Caroline's consistency has not been anywhere near what it was from August, 2010-March, 2011. Surely you can not dispute that? In recent months she has not made a single final in any of the big tournaments (grand slams, premier mandatories and premier 5's). Maybe we have been spoiled by her results but the fact is that she was regularly making big finals and in recent months she has not been.

I also totalled up Caroline's points in 2009 and 2010 for the period of Stuttgart-Toronto/Montreal. Since in those two years Cincinnati was played before Toronto/Montreal we will have to wait until her result next week to get a fair comparison but right now the comparison is as follows:

2009-Stuttgart [P], Rome [P5], Madrid [PM], Roland Garros [GS], Eastbourne [P], Wimbledon [GS], Bastad [i], Los Angeles [P], Cincinnati [P5], Toronto [P5]
Ten events played, 2182 points earned

2010-Stuttgart [P], Rome [P5], Madrid [PM], Warsaw [P], Roland Garros [GS], Eastbourne [P], Wimbledon [GS], Copenhagen [i], Cincinnati [P5], Montreal [P5]
Ten events played, 2412 points earned

2011-Stuttgart [P], Madrid [PM], Rome [P5], Brussels [P], Roland Garros [GS], Copenhagen [i], Wimbledon [GS], Bastad [i], Toronto [P5]
Nine events played, 2076 points earned with the results from Cincinnati pending

Caroline will need to make the semis or better in Cincinnati to exceed her point total from the same period last season. A semi appearance in Cincinnati will give her 2471 points. If she fails to make the semis she will actually have regressed from last season. Having the ankle injury last year, combined with how well she did in the summer/fall of 2010 and the first few months of 2011 I thought that she was primed to have a breakthrough clay season but her results over the last three years have been fairly static. That is somewhat worrying, particularly now that she is number one. If there is a silver lining next year she has the potential to pick up quite a few points, particularly at the two slams.

Jimmie48 Aug 13th, 2011 11:00 AM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Kind of a useless comparison that only proves one thing: Clay and grass are no good surfaces for her, making this definetely the weakest part of her season. That's not news though... compared to 2010 the results aren't that much different to really see much of a change.

DownInAHole Aug 13th, 2011 12:30 PM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimmie48 (Post 20045745)
Kind of a useless comparison that only proves one thing: Clay and grass are no good surfaces for her, making this definetely the weakest part of her season. That's not news though... compared to 2010 the results aren't that much different to really see much of a change.

Fair enough but keep in mind that for part of the 2010 clay season she was hampered by the ankle injury that she suffered in Charleston. I think that after the vast improvement that she showed in the second half of 2010 that a lot of people expected her to do much better in the 2011 clay season, especially if she was healthy which she was. The fact that a healthy 2011 Caroline was unable to noticeably better the results of an injured 2010 Caroline is not encouraging.

I also do not believe that many people expected her to lose to Daniela Hantuchova in the third round at Roland Garros and Dominika Cibulkova in the fourth round at Wimbledon. At both events anything less than at least the quarters was going to be a disappointment. Maybe Caroline was not the favourite to win either of them but had she performed at or near her best the way was clear for her to go deeper than she did, particularly at Roland Garros.

At the beginning of the season the thing that I most wanted to see was steady improvement. That doesn't mean that I was expecting her to start winning multiple slams but I was expecting her to, in general, do better at each event than she did the previous year, particularly in the first half of the season. If you look at the first third of the season she exceeded my expectations and showed a lot of improvement. Since then she has been fairly static. Going forward, she is going to need some phenomenal results to replicate what she did in the last third of last season.

Jimmie48 Aug 13th, 2011 12:51 PM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
I agree that the Hantuchova loss was probably the biggest disappointment of her year so far. I think she played a fine clay season winning Charleston & Brussels, reaching the final in Stuttgart and SF in Rome.. the only thing that ruins her clay performance looking back is RG. Would she have reached the QF or even SF we would be praising her clay performance now.

Wimbledon was a disappointment but hardly a surprise. Her game isn't that much suited to grass and why she surely should not have lost to Cibulkova the way she did, did you really expect her to make the SF or more in Wimbledon this year? If so, you´re much more of an optimist than I am... I was hoping for QF, Wimbledon is probably the least likely slam for her to win, even though she loves the event so much.

Either way, the time span from April to August is no good time to judge her consistency since she tends to play inconsistent on both surfaces. If her hardcourt results start fading now as well I might agree.. but until then I think you´re seeing her year with much more negativity than she deserves.

goldenlox Aug 13th, 2011 01:23 PM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
I was surprised at those last 2 slam losses.
Otherwise she was fine.
Because she is #1, doesnt mean she's perfect.
She has 2 major goals left in 2011 - a good USO, & YE #1.

This was a loss to Vinci where she bad. Unsteady, unfocused.
But like Sydney, its one match.

Lets see how it goes this summer before you crush her for a few losses, which EVERYONE else has also

DownInAHole Aug 13th, 2011 01:35 PM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimmie48 (Post 20046014)
I agree that the Hantuchova loss was probably the biggest disappointment of her year so far. I think she played a fine clay season winning Charleston & Brussels, reaching the final in Stuttgart and SF in Rome.. the only thing that ruins her clay performance looking back is RG. Would she have reached the QF or even SF we would be praising her clay performance now.

This I basically agree with.
Quote:

Wimbledon was a disappointment but hardly a surprise. Her game isn't that much suited to grass and why she surely should not have lost to Cibulkova the way she did, did you really expect her to make the SF or more in Wimbledon this year? If so, you´re much more of an optimist than I am... I was hoping for QF, Wimbledon is probably the least likely slam for her to win, even though she loves the event so much.
This I disagree with. Grass is closer to hardcourt than clay, I would expect her to do better at Wimbledon than at Roland Garros. Maybe the problem is that there is not really a grass season. It is hard to get an idea of how well she can play on grass when she rarely plays on it. As far as how deep she could have gone I see no reason why she could not have defeated Sharapova and made the semis. Beating Lisicki on grass would have been a much more difficult task.
Quote:

Either way, the time span from April to August is no good time to judge her consistency since she tends to play inconsistent on both surfaces. If her hardcourt results start fading now as well I might agree.. but until then I think you´re seeing her year with much more negativity than she deserves.
Eh, I maintain that a healthy number one ranked Caroline should have had better results than she did when she was injured in 2010 and still an up and comer in 2009. Assuming that she is healthy during the 2012 clay/grass season I expect her to significantly better the results she had from 2009-2011. I also don't think I am being too negative. Keep in mind that this discussion is primarily about a specific part of the season and I did mention that for the first third of the season she exceeded the expectations that I had for her. If she wins a couple of more titles and equals or betters her run at the US Open from last year I will consider the season a success. Otherwise I think it will, overall, have been a mild disappointment, particularly at the slams.

postalblowfish Aug 13th, 2011 01:40 PM

Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.
 
She didn't get to the last eight of either of the two slams in that period, and the six people above her in that list either won the slams, got to the final, got to two semi finals or got to one semi and one qf.

If you pick a short time span it'll just get weighted by who did well in the bigger events at that time.


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