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 Jan 15th, 2017 08:41 AM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) Player with a 1750 rating = 5.00 Simona's section is the weakest Nov 6th, 2016 03:41 PM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) Oct 22nd, 2016 06:45 PM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) Kerber should win about 170 of 300 matches vs Halep/Keys/Cibulkova Oct 17th, 2016 10:16 AM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) Sep 26th, 2016 03:31 AM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) Jul 4th, 2016 10:28 AM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) PATH TO THE FOURTH ROUND - OPPONENT STRENGHT 4.00 = Chance of winning all matches (for a 2000 player) is 60% Jun 27th, 2016 12:35 AM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) May 28th, 2016 08:10 AM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) May 27th, 2016 09:09 PM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) 9.50 = The chance (for a player with a 2000 rating) of coming through is 5% 9.00 = The chance (for a player with a 2000 rating) of coming through is 10% A weak top 10 player would beat Kostanic Tosic, Davenport, Vesnina, Dementieva, Henin & Jankovic in 1 of 1000 attempts... Simple calculation: Win Probability R1: 100% Win Probability R2: 100% Win Probability QF: 100% Win Probability SF: 100% Win Probability F: 20% Chance of winning the whole thing is 20% Players with wins over (near) peak Serena & peak Henin are logically on top May 24th, 2016 10:04 AM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) Kerber's chance of surviving Bertens-Giorgi-Kasatkina-Keys is about 30% May 15th, 2016 04:04 PM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) Apr 28th, 2016 05:10 PM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) WIN PROBABILITY SINCE START OF 2015 - MIN 60 MATCHES Code: ``` Probability Win% Net Difference Serena Williams 92.6% 91.3% -1.3% Simona Halep 75.6% 70.9% -4.7% Victoria Azarenka 74.2% 79.1% 4.9% Venus Williams 72.3% 71.4% -0.9% Caroline Wozniacki 72.3% 61.0% -11.3% Petra Kvitova 72.2% 65.7% -6.5% Ana Ivanovic 71.1% 57.8% -13.3% Angelique Kerber 70.2% 74.0% 3.8% Agnieszka Radwanska 68.7% 72.4% 3.8% Jelena Jankovic 65.9% 64.9% -1.0% Ekaterina Makarova 65.0% 60.3% -4.7% Carla Suarez Navarro 64.2% 64.7% 0.5% Samantha Stosur 64.2% 58.8% -5.4% Sara Errani 64.1% 63.0% -1.0% Karolina Pliskova 63.0% 65.2% 2.2% Timea Bacsinszky 62.5% 69.7% 7.2% Eugenie Bouchard 62.4% 53.8% -8.6% Elina Svitolina 61.9% 61.9% 0.0% Lucie Safarova 61.5% 54.4% -7.1% Garbine Muguruza 60.9% 63.9% 3.0% Svetlana Kuznetsova 60.5% 61.9% 1.4% Sloane Stephens 60.4% 67.1% 6.7% Andrea Petkovic 59.4% 53.6% -5.7% Belinda Bencic 59.1% 63.0% 3.8% Madison Keys 58.7% 62.7% 4.0% Sabine Lisicki 58.3% 50.0% -8.3% Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 58.3% 57.7% -0.5% Yaroslava Shvedova 57.8% 59.2% 1.4% Alize Cornet 57.0% 50.0% -7.0% Urszula Radwanska 57.0% 56.5% -0.5% Olga Govortsova 56.6% 58.5% 1.9% Kateryna Kozlova 56.3% 67.7% 11.4% Dominika Cibulkova 56.2% 59.3% 3.2% Kateryna Bondarenko 56.1% 64.4% 8.2% Richel Hogenkamp 55.9% 57.9% 2.0% Lucie Hradecka 55.4% 56.6% 1.1% Kirsten Flipkens 55.2% 55.6% 0.4% Barbora Strycova 55.1% 56.4% 1.4% Lesya Tsurenko 54.8% 56.9% 2.1% Bethanie Mattek-Sands 54.7% 53.8% -0.8% Roberta Vinci 54.5% 57.8% 3.3% Johanna Larsson 54.1% 57.1% 3.1% Petra Martic 54.0% 61.1% 7.1% Polona Hercog 54.0% 51.4% -2.6% Camila Giorgi 53.3% 53.1% -0.2% Kurumi Nara 53.0% 50.7% -2.3% Mona Barthel 53.0% 48.3% -4.6% Kiki Bertens 52.4% 55.7% 3.4% Christina Mchale 52.2% 52.9% 0.7% Ana Konjuh 52.1% 55.4% 3.2% Sesil Karatantcheva 52.1% 52.8% 0.7% Irina-Camelia Begu 52.0% 56.5% 4.4% Varvara Lepchenko 51.8% 47.1% -4.7% Lauren Davis 51.8% 49.3% -2.5% Francesca Schiavone 51.5% 47.3% -4.2% Caroline Garcia 51.4% 55.4% 4.0% Kristina Mladenovic 50.8% 52.5% 1.8% Klara Koukalova 50.7% 43.1% -7.6% Anna Tatishvili 50.6% 55.2% 4.6% Magdalena Rybarikova 50.4% 49.2% -1.2% Elena Vesnina 50.1% 52.2% 2.2% Jana Cepelova 49.7% 50.0% 0.3% Heather Watson 49.6% 55.6% 5.9% Yanina Wickmayer 49.3% 53.0% 3.8% Bojana Jovanovski 49.0% 44.4% -4.6% Stefanie Voegele 48.9% 45.6% -3.3% Anna Schmiedlova 48.8% 56.8% 7.9% Katerina Siniakova 48.4% 48.5% 0.1% Elizaveta Kulichkova 48.2% 53.3% 5.1% Julia Glushko 48.2% 54.9% 6.7% Coco Vandeweghe 48.2% 50.0% 1.8% Aliaksandra Sasnovich 48.1% 58.5% 10.4% Yulia Putintseva 47.9% 53.3% 5.4% Laura Siegemund 47.8% 64.1% 16.2% Alison Van Uytvanck 47.7% 51.6% 3.9% Misaki Doi 47.7% 55.1% 7.4% Lara Arruabarrena 47.6% 50.0% 2.4% Mariana Duque-Marino 47.6% 50.8% 3.2% Julia Goerges 47.5% 52.3% 4.8% Mirjana Lucic-Baroni 47.4% 46.3% -1.1% Tsvetana Pironkova 47.2% 50.0% 2.8% Zarina Diyas 47.2% 40.3% -6.8% Monica Niculescu 47.0% 50.0% 3.0% Annika Beck 46.8% 45.3% -1.5% Irina Falconi 46.6% 52.8% 6.2% Monica Puig 46.6% 51.4% 4.8% Johanna Konta 46.6% 65.0% 18.4% Anna-Lena Friedsam 46.3% 50.0% 3.7% Alexandra Dulgheru 46.1% 46.2% 0.1% Ajla Tomljanovic 45.9% 45.1% -0.8% Donna Vekic 45.9% 46.6% 0.7% Evgeniya Rodina 45.7% 46.3% 0.5% Saisai Zheng 45.6% 44.8% -0.9% Daniela Hantuchova 45.6% 44.0% -1.6% Alison Riske 45.6% 41.4% -4.2% Danka Kovinic 45.5% 54.5% 9.1% Nicole Gibbs 45.3% 55.0% 9.7% Qiang Wang 45.1% 53.8% 8.8% Daria Gavrilova 44.3% 58.0% 13.7% Timea Babos 43.9% 55.2% 11.3% Madison Brengle 43.6% 52.7% 9.1% Aleksandra Krunic 43.3% 46.0% 2.7% Tatjana Maria 43.1% 43.6% 0.5% Magda Linette 42.3% 49.1% 6.8% Carina Witthoeft 36.6% 41.9% 5.4%``` WIN PROBABILITY SINCE START OF 2012 - MIN 130 MATCHES Code: ``` Probability Win% Net Difference Serena Williams 90.7% 91.8% 1.1% Maria Sharapova 80.4% 81.8% 1.4% Victoria Azarenka 79.7% 81.1% 1.3% Venus Williams 72.6% 69.5% -3.1% Agnieszka Radwanska 72.3% 72.5% 0.2% Petra Kvitova 71.6% 69.1% -2.5% Na Li 71.0% 75.0% 4.0% Caroline Wozniacki 69.9% 66.8% -3.1% Ana Ivanovic 67.1% 66.1% -1.0% Angelique Kerber 66.4% 70.6% 4.2% Simona Halep 65.2% 69.3% 4.1% Sara Errani 64.6% 65.9% 1.2% Samantha Stosur 64.5% 61.4% -3.1% Kaia Kanepi 63.1% 58.6% -4.5% Andrea Petkovic 62.8% 58.0% -4.7% Jelena Jankovic 62.5% 62.5% -0.1% Svetlana Kuznetsova 60.2% 61.3% 1.1% Sabine Lisicki 59.5% 56.1% -3.4% Dominika Cibulkova 59.0% 57.4% -1.6% Roberta Vinci 58.5% 58.7% 0.2% Ekaterina Makarova 58.5% 61.1% 2.6% Carla Suarez Navarro 58.3% 61.1% 2.7% Flavia Pennetta 57.8% 58.2% 0.4% Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 57.3% 56.0% -1.3% Bethanie Mattek-Sands 57.2% 55.0% -2.2% Lucie Safarova 56.9% 56.1% -0.8% Shuai Peng 56.7% 52.5% -4.2% Sloane Stephens 55.7% 61.0% 5.3% Yaroslava Shvedova 55.6% 56.5% 0.9% Kirsten Flipkens 55.5% 57.6% 2.1% Alize Cornet 53.8% 55.9% 2.1% Sesil Karatantcheva 53.5% 53.5% 0.0% Karolina Pliskova 53.4% 60.5% 7.1% Mona Barthel 53.3% 54.7% 1.4% Urszula Radwanska 53.3% 53.0% -0.3% Lucie Hradecka 53.2% 51.9% -1.3% Yanina Wickmayer 53.2% 50.9% -2.2% Garbine Muguruza 53.0% 62.3% 9.3% Anastasia Rodionova 52.7% 48.3% -4.4% Klara Koukalova 52.7% 49.3% -3.4% Francesca Schiavone 52.5% 48.0% -4.5% Eugenie Bouchard 52.4% 60.1% 7.7% Elena Vesnina 52.4% 53.4% 1.0% Shahar Peer 52.3% 45.5% -6.8% Polona Hercog 52.1% 49.7% -2.4% Petra Martic 52.0% 50.6% -1.4% Irina-Camelia Begu 51.8% 53.3% 1.6% Madison Keys 51.6% 60.3% 8.7% Bojana Jovanovski 51.6% 50.0% -1.6% Christina McHale 51.6% 50.5% -1.1% Julia Goerges 51.3% 49.8% -1.6% Sorana Cirstea 51.3% 49.7% -1.6% Barbora Strycova 51.3% 54.0% 2.7% Lesya Tsurenko 51.2% 55.4% 4.2% Belinda Bencic 51.0% 62.7% 11.7% Karin Knapp 51.0% 52.8% 1.9% Chanelle Scheepers 50.9% 48.1% -2.8% Johanna Larsson 50.9% 51.3% 0.4% Daniela Hantuchova 50.9% 46.2% -4.6% Elina Svitolina 50.8% 58.7% 7.9% Monica Niculescu 50.8% 49.5% -1.2% Marina Erakovic 50.7% 48.9% -1.8% Heather Watson 50.1% 53.4% 3.3% Casey Dellacqua 49.9% 53.6% 3.6% Lara Arruabarrena 49.8% 54.1% 4.4% Alla Kudryavtseva 49.8% 46.0% -3.8% Mirjana Lucic-Baroni 49.5% 51.3% 1.8% Varvara Lepchenko 49.5% 52.1% 2.6% Camila Giorgi 49.3% 56.0% 6.7% Kiki Bertens 49.2% 55.5% 6.3% Stefanie Voegele 49.2% 49.8% 0.6% Magdalena Rybarikova 49.0% 50.5% 1.5% Shuai Zhang 48.8% 50.6% 1.8% Coco Vandeweghe 48.8% 54.4% 5.6% Tamira Paszek 48.6% 44.9% -3.8% Su-Wei Hsieh 48.4% 49.1% 0.7% Lauren Davis 48.4% 53.6% 5.3% Alexandra Panova 48.3% 51.0% 2.7% Jana Cepelova 48.3% 52.6% 4.3% Olga Govortsova 48.3% 49.1% 0.9% Monica Puig 47.5% 53.2% 5.8% Kurumi Nara 47.3% 50.9% 3.6% Silvia Soler-Espinosa 46.8% 45.2% -1.6% Lourdes Dominguez-Lino 46.6% 44.9% -1.7% Irina Falconi 46.2% 48.3% 2.1% Alison Van Uytvanck 46.1% 51.1% 5.0% Johanna Konta 46.1% 56.9% 10.8% Anna Schmiedlova 46.0% 52.7% 6.7% Kristyna Pliskova 46.0% 46.6% 0.6% Zarina Diyas 46.0% 49.3% 3.3% Kristina Mladenovic 46.0% 50.7% 4.7% Alison Riske 45.7% 50.6% 5.0% Annika Beck 45.2% 50.0% 4.8% Tsvetana Pironkova 45.2% 45.4% 0.2% Mariana Duque-Marino 44.9% 48.6% 3.7% Anna Tatishvili 44.9% 44.1% -0.8% Yulia Putintseva 44.7% 51.6% 6.9% Misaki Doi 44.6% 48.4% 3.8% Andrea Hlavackova 44.4% 44.4% 0.0% Donna Vekic 44.3% 48.9% 4.7% Ajla Tomljanovic 43.6% 48.1% 4.5% Caroline Garcia 43.3% 50.2% 6.9% Saisai Zheng 43.3% 49.3% 6.0% Timea Babos 42.4% 49.2% 6.8% Mandy Minella 40.9% 40.6% -0.3% Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor 40.2% 42.0% 1.8%``` WIN PROBABILITY SINCE START OF 2009 - MIN 200 MATCHES Code: ``` Probability Win% Net Difference Serena Williams 87.9% 89.3% 1.3% Maria Sharapova 80.3% 79.7% -0.6% Venus Williams 75.3% 72.2% -3.1% Victoria Azarenka 75.2% 77.4% 2.2% Caroline Wozniacki 72.3% 71.5% -0.7% Vera Zvonareva 71.9% 67.4% -4.5% Agnieszka Radwanska 69.9% 70.6% 0.7% Na Li 68.2% 70.5% 2.2% Ana Ivanovic 66.5% 64.9% -1.6% Jelena Jankovic 65.6% 63.2% -2.4% Marion Bartoli 65.4% 65.6% 0.2% Petra Kvitova 65.0% 67.4% 2.4% Svetlana Kuznetsova 64.0% 63.4% -0.7% Samantha Stosur 63.8% 64.1% 0.3% Flavia Pennetta 62.6% 62.3% -0.3% Nadezda Petrova 62.4% 58.8% -3.6% Angelique Kerber 61.4% 66.1% 4.7% Sara Errani 60.1% 60.8% 0.7% Simona Halep 59.8% 65.4% 5.6% Kaia Kanepi 59.2% 57.5% -1.7% Dominika Cibulkova 58.7% 58.4% -0.3% Sabine Lisicki 57.8% 59.4% 1.6% Roberta Vinci 57.5% 59.2% 1.7% Maria Kirilenko 57.4% 57.7% 0.3% Shahar Peer 57.3% 54.3% -3.1% Vera Dushevina 57.1% 53.6% -3.6% Shuai Peng 57.1% 57.0% -0.1% Andrea Petkovic 57.1% 60.7% 3.6% Aleksandra Wozniak 56.7% 54.5% -2.2% Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 56.7% 58.5% 1.9% Carla Suarez Navarro 56.5% 59.5% 3.0% Ekaterina Makarova 55.9% 57.4% 1.5% Francesca Schiavone 55.8% 54.0% -1.8% Lucie Safarova 55.8% 56.9% 1.1% Bethanie Mattek-Sands 55.8% 55.6% -0.2% Aravane Rezai 55.8% 54.3% -1.4% Sesil Karatantcheva 55.4% 55.3% -0.1% Jie Zheng 55.3% 52.5% -2.9% Kateryna Bondarenko 55.2% 55.8% 0.6% Timea Bacsinszky 55.0% 60.5% 5.5% Anabel Medina Garrigues 54.9% 50.2% -4.7% Daniela Hantuchova 54.8% 52.8% -2.0% Yanina Wickmayer 54.6% 56.6% 2.1% Yaroslava Shvedova 54.5% 55.8% 1.3% Alize Cornet 53.6% 52.7% -0.9% Garbine Muguruza 53.0% 62.3% 9.3% Sloane Stephens 52.8% 59.9% 7.0% Kirsten Flipkens 52.7% 55.5% 2.8% Karolina Pliskova 52.3% 58.4% 6.1% Urszula Radwanska 52.3% 53.6% 1.3% Elena Vesnina 52.2% 54.0% 1.8% Mona Barthel 52.2% 56.0% 3.8% Jarmila Wolfe 52.0% 51.4% -0.6% Kimiko Date-Krumm 51.9% 43.6% -8.3% Tamira Paszek 51.6% 49.6% -2.0% Karin Knapp 51.4% 52.9% 1.5% Virginie Razzano 51.3% 49.1% -2.3% Julia Goerges 51.3% 52.8% 1.6% Lucie Hradecka 51.0% 52.0% 0.9% Monica Niculescu 50.8% 52.0% 1.2% Klara Koukalova 50.8% 50.1% -0.6% Sorana Cirstea 50.7% 49.2% -1.5% Anastasia Rodionova 50.7% 49.8% -0.9% Vania King 50.6% 51.6% 0.9% Elina Svitolina 50.6% 57.9% 7.3% Galina Voskoboeva 50.0% 51.0% 1.0% Lesya Tsurenko 49.9% 54.4% 4.5% Bojana Jovanovski 49.8% 52.0% 2.2% Irina-Camelia Begu 49.7% 54.9% 5.2% Barbora Strycova 49.6% 51.6% 2.0% Alla Kudryavtseva 49.3% 46.8% -2.5% Petra Martic 49.3% 52.5% 3.1% Chanelle Scheepers 49.3% 51.2% 1.9% Marina Erakovic 49.3% 49.8% 0.5% Su-Wei Hsieh 49.2% 49.5% 0.3% Polona Hercog 49.1% 51.6% 2.5% Magdalena Rybarikova 49.0% 50.0% 1.0% Mirjana Lucic-Baroni 48.9% 51.3% 2.5% Heather Watson 48.8% 54.0% 5.1% Lara Arruabarrena 48.8% 53.2% 4.5% Shuai Zhang 48.4% 50.6% 2.2% Christina McHale 48.1% 52.1% 4.0% Varvara Lepchenko 48.0% 50.0% 2.0% Johanna Larsson 47.1% 50.6% 3.5% Alexandra Panova 46.9% 48.8% 2.0% Olga Govortsova 46.7% 46.6% -0.1% Tsvetana Pironkova 46.5% 46.4% 0.0% Alberta Brianti 46.3% 45.4% -0.9% Stefanie Voegele 46.2% 47.5% 1.4% Lourdes Dominguez-Lino 46.0% 46.3% 0.3% Kurumi Nara 46.0% 49.8% 3.8% Alexandra Dulgheru 45.8% 49.1% 3.3% Olga Savchuk 45.6% 44.5% -1.1% Kristina Mladenovic 45.5% 49.6% 4.2% Anna Tatishvili 45.3% 47.3% 2.0% Silvia Soler-Espinosa 45.2% 47.2% 2.0% Coco Vandeweghe 45.1% 51.9% 6.9% Annika Beck 45.0% 49.3% 4.3% Ayumi Morita 44.8% 45.6% 0.9% Mariana Duque-Marino 43.8% 44.2% 0.5% Misaki Doi 43.4% 47.6% 4.1% Caroline Garcia 42.7% 48.6% 5.9% Alison Riske 42.5% 47.0% 4.5% Andrea Hlavackova 41.7% 42.2% 0.5% Pauline Parmentier 38.8% 39.4% 0.6%``` The Net Difference may not match Win%- Win Probability due to rounding ________________________________________________ Venus has played 816 matches as a 2000+ player. Lindsay 808 matches Venus has played 141 matches as a 2350+ player. Lindsay 26 matches Venus > Lindsay Just an example Jankovic > Radwanska Justine Henin - Kim Clijsters Martina Hingis - Maria Sharapova Na Li - Petra Kvitova Victoria Azarenka - Svetlana Kuznetsova Caroline Wozniacki - Jelena Jankovic - Dinara Safina Apr 24th, 2016 04:47 PM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) Apr 23rd, 2016 04:19 PM KleineBiere Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) Apr 22nd, 2016 11:35 PM DavidWest Re: WTA Elo Ratings - revised (04/11/2013) Awesome top table there - it's immense how huge of a gap there is below Serena. Question though - how easy do all of you peeps on here find it to follow your favourite players? I've often found it difficult to keep up to speed, especially live... This thread has more than 15 replies. Click here to review the whole thread.