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Thread: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way. Reply to Thread
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  Topic Review (Newest First)
Sep 28th, 2011 05:24 PM
Protoss
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Caro has only made it to the quarters of 1 out of 4 premier 5 or greater hard court tournaments after Indian Wells and to the quarters of 3 out 7 hard court tournaments overall.

For someone whose best surface is hard court, both those figures seem rather low.
Aug 16th, 2011 04:00 PM
Crockett
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by goldenlox View Post
So that is the immediate issue. To play well. Then to play well in NYC.
I agree with that notion. I am looking forward to Wednesday - hey that's tomorrow!
Aug 16th, 2011 03:19 PM
goldenlox
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crockett View Post
She wasn't injured in the first match at Båstad (the badly played one). She played a great first set in the second match. Then she got injured.
Caroline also didnt play well in Toronto against Vinci.
So that is the immediate issue. To play well. Then to play well in NYC.
Having a bad day is okay if she can win the match
Aug 16th, 2011 11:09 AM
Crockett
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by goldenlox View Post
Caroline was injured there.
She wasn't injured in the first match at Båstad (the badly played one). She played a great first set in the second match. Then she got injured.
Aug 15th, 2011 12:40 PM
goldenlox
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Caroline was injured there. But the early losses at the last 2 slams override the other results.
Eventually she has to be able to peak at majors. The best players go for the biggest titles, and losing to Hantuchova/Cibulkova leaves some question marks about her ability to win big titles.
Makes USO & AO more important
Aug 15th, 2011 10:44 AM
Crockett
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by goldenlox View Post
Her middle of the season wasnt bad, except for the slam losses.
I agree, but not quite. The first round in Båstad was disappointing too. Caroline won the match, of course.
Aug 14th, 2011 11:33 PM
goldenlox
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Her middle of the season wasnt bad, except for the slam losses.
Miami was right after IW. Then she won Charleston, Stuttgart final. Another loss to Goerges in Madrid, Rome SF, won Brussel, won Copenhagen.

Thats a pretty decent run. The 2 slam losses were to players she beats, so those are bad losses.

Toronto was wind & rust, but her focus wasnt there, or she at least wins set 2 from 5-1 up.

Next goal is USO, thats the next time you really analyze where she is, although an early loss in Cincy is definately a warning sign. A USO Final appearance overrides all these Premiers.
Aug 14th, 2011 10:52 PM
DownInAHole
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by terjw View Post
Expecting her to do well is different to saying she's capable of doing better. Clay is her worst surface. Just about every expert would agree and Caro anf Piotr both say so. So the thread just looks like creating a stat to put Caro in the worst possible light.

As I said before - only Justine (2006-7) has managed to sustain a level of dominance since Serena 2002-2003 that Kim and Caro attained at the top for longer. Sure I'm disappointed in some of her results since IW. But it's like you have to dream up some stat to put her in the worst possible light concentrating with her play on her worst surfaces. Honestly - saying she's not the real #1 but the #7 reminds me of some of those convoluted stats like she's never beaten a former #1.

If the rest of the year she underperforms and has bad results, her true ranking - not your pseudo ranking - will reflect this.
Well, discounting green clay and indoor carpet (which I'm not sure is used anymore) there are only three surfaces and one of them is going to be her weakest but that does not mean she can not win or do well on it. I guess the main thing that disappoints me is that as far as point totals go she was not able to do much better in the 2011 clay season when she was healthy and an improved player over the 2010 season when she was to no small degree hampered with an ankle injury. Are there any great clay court players in today's WTA? Certainly there is no one that dominates in the way that Nadal does in the ATP or in the way that Justine Henin did. I think it is fair to say that there is no one dominant clay player that is stymieing Caroline's ability to win on clay. Look no further than Maria Sharapova for an example of a player that has traditionally struggled on clay but was able to have some impressive results on it this season despite those past struggles.

I should also like to point out that this thread is not just about clay as it also encompasses grass and hardcourts and I plan to update the first post after Cincinnati is over. Further, I challenge you to find a quote of mine where I made the claim that Caroline is "not the real #1 but the #7." Of course she is still the real number one, her results and ranking reflect that. After the loss to Vinci I was wondering how she had done in the middle part of the season and after doing the maths I was slightly shocked to see that there were six players ahead of her. Maybe that is common knowledge but I found it surprising and thought that it was worth sharing. If my intention was to bash Caroline and belittle her I would have posted this thread in GM where I have no doubt that it would have flourished before degenerating into the usual chorus of "Caroline sucks and she is the worst number one ever" the way that all of her threads end up. I was hoping to be able to have a conversation about her struggles in the middle of the season that was critical but at the same time respectful.
Aug 14th, 2011 10:27 PM
DownInAHole
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Protoss View Post
There have only been 2 big hard court tournaments after Indian Wells though. I don't put that much importance on her clay court results particularly in terms of consistency. I think it would better to keep an eye on her hard court performances to monitor her consistency.

After reaching her first big hard court final, the US Open in 2009, Caro has so far gone no more than 2 big hard court tournaments without reaching at least the semis and so far gone no more than 4 big hard court tournaments without reaching the final.

After reaching her first hard court final, Stockholm in 2008, Caro has so far gone no more than 5 hard court tournaments without reaching at least the semis and so far gone no more than 8 hard court tournaments without reaching the final.

After reaching the US Open final in 2009, Caro has so far gone no more than 3 hard court tournaments without reaching at least the semis and so far gone no more than 8 hard court tournaments without reaching the final.
Dang, I've just been crushed by all of the knowledge that you just dropped on me! She has had great hardcourt results and I hope that continues.
Aug 14th, 2011 10:10 PM
terjw
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DownInAHole View Post
Really? Sure, I am being somewhat critical of her but I think I am doing so in a reasonable and respectful way. I laid out my theory and did my best to back it up with facts, that is a far cry from the typical conversations about Caroline in GM. Generally I try to hold myself to the standard that I would not type something about a person that I would feel uncomfortable saying to them in person. I don't think that anything I typed is at odds with that standard so I do not think I am being too harsh.

I absolutely believe in her but with that belief comes expectations. Too many fans appear to be of the opinion that her game is not suited to clay and that we should not expect her to do well on that surface. To me that school of thought is slightly insulting to Caroline and her abilities. I have a different opinion and believe that she is capable of doing much better on clay than she did this season.
Expecting her to do well is different to saying she's capable of doing better. Clay is her worst surface. Just about every expert would agree and Caro anf Piotr both say so. So the thread just looks like creating a stat to put Caro in the worst possible light.

As I said before - only Justine (2006-7) has managed to sustain a level of dominance since Serena 2002-2003 that Kim and Caro attained at the top for longer. Sure I'm disappointed in some of her results since IW. But it's like you have to dream up some stat to put her in the worst possible light concentrating with her play on her worst surfaces. Honestly - saying she's not the real #1 but the #7 reminds me of some of those convoluted stats like she's never beaten a former #1.

If the rest of the year she underperforms and has bad results, her true ranking - not your pseudo ranking - will reflect this.
Aug 14th, 2011 09:33 PM
Protoss
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

There have only been 2 big hard court tournaments after Indian Wells though. I don't put that much importance on her clay court results particularly in terms of consistency. I think it would better to keep an eye on her hard court performances to monitor her consistency.

After reaching her first big hard court final, the US Open in 2009, Caro has so far gone no more than 2 big hard court tournaments without reaching at least the semis and so far gone no more than 4 big hard court tournaments without reaching the final.

After reaching her first hard court final, Stockholm in 2008, Caro has so far gone no more than 5 hard court tournaments without reaching at least the semis and so far gone no more than 8 hard court tournaments without reaching the final.

After reaching the US Open final in 2009, Caro has so far gone no more than 3 hard court tournaments without reaching at least the semis and so far gone no more than 8 hard court tournaments without reaching the final.
Aug 14th, 2011 08:55 PM
DownInAHole
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marineblue View Post
You have a belief in her? Doesn´t sound like it, I find the threat you started far too negative. Feels like GM all of a sudden.
Really? Sure, I am being somewhat critical of her but I think I am doing so in a reasonable and respectful way. I laid out my theory and did my best to back it up with facts, that is a far cry from the typical conversations about Caroline in GM. Generally I try to hold myself to the standard that I would not type something about a person that I would feel uncomfortable saying to them in person. I don't think that anything I typed is at odds with that standard so I do not think I am being too harsh.

I absolutely believe in her but with that belief comes expectations. Too many fans appear to be of the opinion that her game is not suited to clay and that we should not expect her to do well on that surface. To me that school of thought is slightly insulting to Caroline and her abilities. I have a different opinion and believe that she is capable of doing much better on clay than she did this season.
Aug 14th, 2011 08:40 PM
goldenlox
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

2 majors goals left in 2011. A strong USO, and YE #1.
I dont know what the loss to Vinci means yet, but hopefully it just get her more focused.
Aug 14th, 2011 08:23 PM
marineblue
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

You have a belief in her? Doesn´t sound like it, I find the threat you started far too negative. Feels like GM all of a sudden.
Aug 14th, 2011 07:54 PM
DownInAHole
Re: Has Caroline's consistency deserted her? It sure looks that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by terjw View Post
Great post. Totally agree. On the same lines - what player since Serena 2002/2003 has sustained a level of dominance over a whole year or 12 months. So now it is all doom and despair that Caro hasn't sustained her level - for much of the time on her worst surface anyway - that she and Kim did last half of 2011 and first part of 2010. The only player to have sustained it for as long as a year is Justine in 2006 and 2007.

That's not to say I don't get worried - especially if Caro makes a large number of UEs. But it sounds from some of these posts that she's been a complete failure when she does have 5 wins and is #1 in the race and rankings.
The thing that motivated me to start this thread was realising that since the clay season began Caroline is seventh in terms of points collected. That's not doom and gloom it is reality. Also, and I may be in the minority, I do not buy into the theory that Caroline is incapable of playing on clay and that we should expect her to do poorly from April-June. Maybe I just have more faith in her than some of you.

Here are Caroline's results in the bigger tournaments (grand slams, premier mandatories, premier fives and the year end championships) from August, 2010-early April, 2011:

Cincinnati-lost in the R16 to Marion Bartoli (20)
Montreal-won over Vera Zvonareva (11)
US Open-lost in the semi-final to Vera Zvonareva (8)
Tokyo-won over Elena Dementieva (10)
Beijing-won over Vera Zvonareva (4)
YEC-lost to Sam Stosur (7), defeated Elena Dementieva (9), defeated Francesca Schiavone (6), defeated Vera Zvonareva (2), lost in the final to Kim Clijsters (4)
Australian Open-lost in the semi-final to Na Li (11)
Dubai-won over Svetlana Kuznetsova (23)
Indian Wells-won over Marion Bartoli (17)
Miami-lost in the R16 to Andrea Petkovic (23)

And here are her results from May-present:

Madrid-lost in the R16 to Julia Goerges (27)
Rome-lost in the semi-final to Maria Sharapova (8)
Roland Garros-lost in the third round to Daniela Hantuchova (29)
Wimbledon-lost in the R16 to Dominika Cibulkova (24)
Toronto-lost in the second round to Roberta Vinci (22)

Obviously Caroline was on a tremendous hot streak in the second half of 2010 and the first few months of 2011 and it was not reasonable to expect that to continue but she has not made a "big" final since Indian Wells in March and only one "big" semi-final (Rome). Four of her five recent losses in the "big" tournaments were to players ranked outside the top twenty. Probably most worrisome was her performances in the last two slams. For the number one ranked player to fail to make the quarters in two consecutive slams is a disappointing outcome, regardless of the surface. As I said I do not buy into the excuse that she can not play on clay. She had some decent runs on clay this year (Stuttgart and Rome) and she did make the final of Madrid in 2009. I was not expecting her to make every final during the clay season but I did expect marked improvement over last year when for part of the clay season she was hampered by an ankle injury, especially when you consider that after Wimbledon last year was when she made her breakthrough as one of the top players. True, she did win two titles during that stretch but one of them was an international level title and the other did not feature a very strong field. It is at the bigger events that she is expected to perform and for the last several months she has not been doing so. Will she start to do better now that she is back on hardcourts? I hope so but if not I think it is a worrying sign.
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