TheBoiledEgg
Dec 23rd, 2002, 05:32 PM
http://www.tennisone.com/Larson/Larsonnews.home.htm
by Bob Larson
How Good is Great?
A few weeks ago, we talked about the year Serena Williams had in 2002 -- and the unspectacular years almost everyone else had. This led to an unanswerable question: Was Serena spectacularly improved, or did everyone else go downhill? (The answer is probably something of both, but the goal -- which probably can't be achieved -- is to know how much.)
But just how good was Serena in 2002? That, at least, we can examine relatively objectively. Serena had certainly a very good year -- three singles Slams, eight singles titles, one doubles Slam, two doubles titles, a mere five losses in the course of the year (and one loss in doubles), and titles on all four surfaces.
We actually saw an Internet posting claiming Serena's was the best year in tennis history. We can't help but think that Steffi Graf -- and even Monica Seles and Martina Hingis -- could have a few words to say about that. (Apparently "tennis history," for the poster, began around 2001. That, plus the fact that tennis history consists of two players: Venus and Serena Williams. And we checked: The person who claimed that was not Richard Williams in disguise. Though perhaps on his payroll, for all we know.)
So where does Serena's season stack up among all-time great years?
For these purposes, let's look at only the last 20 years (1983-2002); records before that time are sadly spotty, and in any case the sport was rather different then. (Frankly, it was pretty different in 1983, and we generally don't think it possible to compare across eras. But we have to use some sort of yardstick.)
Generally speaking, we're going to look at the twelve best seasons in a particular category, and anything below that is -- below that.
Statistic 1: Winning Percentage in a season
1. Navratilova/1983.....86-1, 99%
2. Graf/1989............86-2, 98%
3. Navratilova/1984.....78-2, 98%
4. Graf/1987............75-2, 97%
5. Navratilova/1986.....89-3, 97%
6. Graf/1988............72-3, 96%
7. Navratilova/1985.....84-5, 94%
8. Hingis/1997..........75-5, 94%
9. Graf/1990............72-5, 94%
10. Seles/1992...........70-5, 93%
11. Graf/1996............54-5, 93%
12. Graf/1993............76-6, 93%
Serena's 2002 record was 56-5. 92%. Which, believe it or not, isn't even in the Top 25 in the Open Era; we make it #14 in our 20-year sample (Seles was 74-6, 93%, in 1991).
Statistic 2: Total Wins in a season
1. Navratilova/1986......89
2. Graf/1989.............87
3. Navratilova/1983......86
4. Navratilova/1985......84
5. Evert/1985............81
6. Navratilova/1984......78
7. Hingis/2000...........77
8. Graf/1993.............76
9. Graf/1987.............75
9. Hingis/1997...........75
11. Seles/1991............74
12. Navratilova/1989......73
... Graf/1988.............72
... Graf/1990.............72
... Hingis/1999...........70
... Seles/1992............70
... Davenport/1998........67
... Graf/1986.............64
... Davenport/2001........62
... Venus/2002............62
... Hingis/1998...........60
... Serena/2002...........56
The preceding list shows all the leaders in wins in recent years, even if they weren't particularly impressive, plus the really big winners of the past. The list may not be comprehensive for the early eighties (it's possible that some years had a strong player we didn't notice). Still, this should put Serena in perspective. Serena's 56 wins, we note, don't even make her #1 this year; Venus Williams had 62. In 2001, four players (Davenport, 62; Hingis, 60; Henin, 59; Capriati, 56) equalled or exceeded Serena's total this year. It might be objected that Serena didn't play all that much -- only 13 events. But while that's a very low number by 2002 standards, it's quite normal for players around 1990, when Graf and Seles were putting up their numbers. Graf in 1988, for instance, played only 13 events -- and still managed 16 more wins than Serena. And Graf also had only 13 events in 1987, when she had nineteen more wins than Serena even though she didn't win the Grand Slam that year. And in 1989, both Graf and Navratilova topped Serena 2002; similarly, Navratilova and Evert both topped Serena in 1985.
A better objection is that total wins don't mean much, because some wins are cheap (e.g. Henin in 2001 earned a lot of her 59 wins in Tier III events). There is truth to this -- but winning a lot still takes effort. Serena had a consistent advantage over her opponents in 2002: She was more rested. Logically, she ought to be able to win.
Statistic 3: Titles in a season
The following list shows every player in the last 20 years with 8 or more titles in a year, and every player who led the tour in a given year even if she didn't have 8 titles. Note: This is irritatingly approximate for some of the early years, partly because the WTA wasn't then on a calendar system and partly because their records are a mess. So, e.g., the WTA lists Navratilova as having 12 titles in 1985 -- but that was Tour year 1985. We've adjusted as best we can, both here and in the next item. We may not have succeeded. But the top six are pretty definitely the top six; it's just that the order may be a little off.
1. Navratilova/1984.........15
2. Graf/1989................14
2. Navratilova/1986.........14
4. Navratilova/1983.........13
5. Navratilova/1985.........13
6. Hingis/1997..............12
7. Evert/1985...............11
7. Graf/1987................11
9. Graf/1988................10
9. Graf/1990................10
9. Graf/1993................10
9. Seles/1991...............10
9. Seles/1992...............10
... Graf/1995.................9
... Hingis/2000...............9
... Navratilova/1988..........9
... Seles/1990................9
... Graf/1992.................8
... Navratilova/1989..........8
... Sanchez-Vicario/1994......8
... Serena/2002...............8
... Davenport/1999............7
... Davenport/2001............7
... Graf/1996.................7
... Hingis/1999...............7
... Davenport/1998............6
Serena had eight titles in 2002. This is not that bad by recent standards, as the above list shows -- but historically it is weak indeed; until 1994, the winningest player had had at least ten titles every season in the entire Open Era!
Statistic 4: Fraction of Events Won
This takes the preceding list and divides it by number of events played.
1. Navratilova/1984.........88%
2. Graf/1989................88%
3. Graf/1987................85%
4. Navratilova/1983.........81%
5. Navratilova/1986.........78%
6. Graf/1988................77%
7. Navratilova/1985.........72%
8. Hingis/1997..............71%
9. Graf/1995................69%
10. Graf/1990................67%
10. Graf/1993................67%
10. Seles/1992...............67%
... Graf/1996................64%
... Seles/1991...............63%
... Serena/2002..............62%
... Evert/1985...............61%
... Seles/1990...............60%
... Graf/1992................57%
... Navratilova/1988.........56%
... Navratilova/1989.........50%
... Sanchez-Vicario/1994.....47%
... Hingis/2000..............45%
... Davenport/2001...........41%
... Davenport/1999...........37%
... Hingis/1999..............35%
... Davenport/1998...........30%
Thus we see that, even taking number of events played into account, Serena doesn't stand all that high -- her winning percentage is actually below the #2 player in one year (1985).
Statistic 5: Slams Won
As a sort of tiebreak in this category, we'll award an extra half-point for winning the year-end championships. We'll only list years where a player had two or more Slams since 1983.
1. Graf/1988..............4.0
2. Navratilova/1983.......3.5
2. Navratilova/1984.......3.5
2. Graf/1989..............3.5
2. Seles/1991.............3.5
2. Seles/1992.............3.5
2. Graf/1995..............3.5
2. Graf/1996..............3.5
9. Navratilova/1986.......3.0*
9. Hingis/1997............3.0
9. Serena/2002............3.0
12. Navratilova/1985.......2.5
12. Navratilova/1987.......2.0
12. Sanchez-Vicario/1994...2.0
12. Venus/2000.............2.0
12. Capriati/2001..........2.0
12. Venus/2001.............2.0
* Navratilova won only two Slams in 1986 but had two "year-end" titles.
Finally, Serena gets into the Top 12.
So let's analyze what we have here. This is just for singles, and we will fiddle. But let's find every year that's in the Top 12 in one of our five categories. There are 23 such years (meaning, obviously, that several years had multiple qualifying players):
Capriati/2001
Evert/1985
Graf/1987
Graf/1988
Graf/1989
Graf/1990
Graf/1993
Graf/1995
Graf/1996
Hingis/1997
Hingis/2000
Navratilova/1983
Navratilova/1984
Navratilova/1985
Navratilova/1986
Navratilova/1987
Navratilova/1989
Sanchez-Vicario/1994
Seles/1991
Seles/1992
Serena/2002
Venus/2000
Venus/2001
Now we're going to pull one more trick: We're going to tack on some doubles. Not much, but a little -- since, like total wins, it represents effort the players had to expend. Here is what we will do: We will award four points for each doubles Slam win and one point for each additional doubles title. The doubles points for the above players then become:
Navratilova/1984........24
Navratilova/1983........22
Navratilova/1986........20
Navratilova/1987........18
Navratilova/1985........17
Sanchez-Vicario/1994....14
Navratilova/1989........13
Hingis/1997.............11
Hingis/2000.............11
Graf/1988................5
Serena/2002..............5
Venus/2000...............4
Venus/2001...............4
Seles/1991...............2
Graf/1987................1
Graf/1989................1
Graf/1993................1
Seles/1992...............1
Capriati/2001............0
Evert/1985...............0
Graf/1990................0
Graf/1995................0
Graf/1996................0
Incidentally, there are some great doubles years missing here -- e.g. Shriver consistently was earning 15-25 points a year in the mid-Eighties, mostly with Navratilova; Hingis's Grand Slam year of 1998 would have given her 21 points that year (Hingis, incidentally, is the first player since Graf in 1988 to have five Slams, singles and doubles, in one year -- which also points up that Serena had four Slams in 2002; prior to Hingis's four in 1997 and five in 1998, and Jana Novotna's four in 1998, the last player to do that was, yes, Graf). But neither Hingis nor Shriver had particularly great singles years those years.
And so, the moment we've all been waiting for: The Greatest Year List.
This, though, requires explanation. Here's what we're going to do: We'll grant 20 points for the best year (#1 in any of the above lists). #2 is worth 16, #3 worth 13, #4 worth 11, #5 worth 9, #6 worth 7, #7 worth 6, #8 worth 5, #9 worth 4, #10 worth 3, #11 worth 2, and #12 worth 1 point. Anything below #12 is worth 0. We will halve everyone's doubles points for this purpose. That gives us the following totals:
1. Navratilova/1984..........88
2. Navratilova/1983..........82
3. Graf/1989.................80.5
4. Navratilova/1986..........68
5. Navratilova/1985..........41.5
6. Graf/1988.................40.5
7. Graf/1987.................34.5
8. Hingis/1997...............30.5
9. Seles/1992................26.5
10. Seles/1991................23
11. Graf/1995.................20
12. Graf/1996.................18
13. Evert/1985................15
14. Graf/1993.................13.5
15. Hingis/2000...............11.5
16. Graf/1990.................11
17. Navratilova/1987..........10
18. Sanchez-Vicario/1994.......8
19. Navratilova/1989...........7.5
20. Serena/2002................6.5
21. Venus/2001.................3
21. Venus/2000.................3
23. Capriati/2001..............1
We'd say, though, that this gives a little too much weight to absolute successes (total wins, total titles) compared to rate of success (winning percent, fraction of tournaments won). So let's make a modification: Let's halve the points awarded for total wins and total titles. (Note that both of these help Serena, who had relatively few wins and titles.) That gives us this list for best years:
1. Navratilova/1984..........74.5
2. Navratilova/1983..........70
3. Graf/1989.................64.5
4. Navratilova/1986..........53.5
5. Graf/1988.................37
6. Navratilova/1985..........33
7. Hingis/1997...............26
7. Graf/1987.................26
9. Seles/1992................25
10. Seles/1991................22
11. Graf/1995.................18
11. Graf/1996.................18
13. Evert/1985................10.5
14. Navratilova/1987..........10
15. Graf/1990..................9.5
15. Graf/1993..................9.5
17. Hingis/2000................8.5
18. Sanchez-Vicario/1994.......8
19. Navratilova/1989...........7
20. Serena/2002................6.5
21. Venus/2001.................3
21. Venus/2000.................3
23. Capriati/2001..............1
Obviously this doesn't take some things into account, such as Graf's 1988 Grand Slam. But Graf herself has said that she thought her 1989 was better than her 1988 -- she missed one Slam but had a better overall record. And that comes out here.
And it puts Serena at #20 in the all-time years list. Lower, frankly, than we expected. We didn't expect her to have one of the truly great years -- but certainly we thought she had done better than this. What it really seems to show is how things have levelled out over the past few years. Our expectations of a #1 player have clearly been lowered. Informally, we knew that. But this demonstrated how much they have lowered. Note that, since 1993, we haven't had a single year with a player in the Top Five in any of our statistical category, and only Hingis's 1997 is in the Top Ten in the big statistics of winning percentage and wins and titles and title winning percentage. Serena's year isn't great by historical standards -- but it's certainly the best since Hingis in 1997. Indeed, 1997 seems to be the watershed year: Until that time, the dominant players were of all sorts -- Hingis the shotmaker, Seles the two-handed basher, Graf the fast mover with the forehand, Navratilova the serve-and-volleyer, Sanchez-Vicario the scrambler. Since then, except for Hingis (who is obviously fading, though she held up pretty well until 2001), it's been all bashers, all the time. So you could make a case that Serena is the best basher of all time. Or, at least, the best basher since Seles was stabbed....
by Bob Larson
How Good is Great?
A few weeks ago, we talked about the year Serena Williams had in 2002 -- and the unspectacular years almost everyone else had. This led to an unanswerable question: Was Serena spectacularly improved, or did everyone else go downhill? (The answer is probably something of both, but the goal -- which probably can't be achieved -- is to know how much.)
But just how good was Serena in 2002? That, at least, we can examine relatively objectively. Serena had certainly a very good year -- three singles Slams, eight singles titles, one doubles Slam, two doubles titles, a mere five losses in the course of the year (and one loss in doubles), and titles on all four surfaces.
We actually saw an Internet posting claiming Serena's was the best year in tennis history. We can't help but think that Steffi Graf -- and even Monica Seles and Martina Hingis -- could have a few words to say about that. (Apparently "tennis history," for the poster, began around 2001. That, plus the fact that tennis history consists of two players: Venus and Serena Williams. And we checked: The person who claimed that was not Richard Williams in disguise. Though perhaps on his payroll, for all we know.)
So where does Serena's season stack up among all-time great years?
For these purposes, let's look at only the last 20 years (1983-2002); records before that time are sadly spotty, and in any case the sport was rather different then. (Frankly, it was pretty different in 1983, and we generally don't think it possible to compare across eras. But we have to use some sort of yardstick.)
Generally speaking, we're going to look at the twelve best seasons in a particular category, and anything below that is -- below that.
Statistic 1: Winning Percentage in a season
1. Navratilova/1983.....86-1, 99%
2. Graf/1989............86-2, 98%
3. Navratilova/1984.....78-2, 98%
4. Graf/1987............75-2, 97%
5. Navratilova/1986.....89-3, 97%
6. Graf/1988............72-3, 96%
7. Navratilova/1985.....84-5, 94%
8. Hingis/1997..........75-5, 94%
9. Graf/1990............72-5, 94%
10. Seles/1992...........70-5, 93%
11. Graf/1996............54-5, 93%
12. Graf/1993............76-6, 93%
Serena's 2002 record was 56-5. 92%. Which, believe it or not, isn't even in the Top 25 in the Open Era; we make it #14 in our 20-year sample (Seles was 74-6, 93%, in 1991).
Statistic 2: Total Wins in a season
1. Navratilova/1986......89
2. Graf/1989.............87
3. Navratilova/1983......86
4. Navratilova/1985......84
5. Evert/1985............81
6. Navratilova/1984......78
7. Hingis/2000...........77
8. Graf/1993.............76
9. Graf/1987.............75
9. Hingis/1997...........75
11. Seles/1991............74
12. Navratilova/1989......73
... Graf/1988.............72
... Graf/1990.............72
... Hingis/1999...........70
... Seles/1992............70
... Davenport/1998........67
... Graf/1986.............64
... Davenport/2001........62
... Venus/2002............62
... Hingis/1998...........60
... Serena/2002...........56
The preceding list shows all the leaders in wins in recent years, even if they weren't particularly impressive, plus the really big winners of the past. The list may not be comprehensive for the early eighties (it's possible that some years had a strong player we didn't notice). Still, this should put Serena in perspective. Serena's 56 wins, we note, don't even make her #1 this year; Venus Williams had 62. In 2001, four players (Davenport, 62; Hingis, 60; Henin, 59; Capriati, 56) equalled or exceeded Serena's total this year. It might be objected that Serena didn't play all that much -- only 13 events. But while that's a very low number by 2002 standards, it's quite normal for players around 1990, when Graf and Seles were putting up their numbers. Graf in 1988, for instance, played only 13 events -- and still managed 16 more wins than Serena. And Graf also had only 13 events in 1987, when she had nineteen more wins than Serena even though she didn't win the Grand Slam that year. And in 1989, both Graf and Navratilova topped Serena 2002; similarly, Navratilova and Evert both topped Serena in 1985.
A better objection is that total wins don't mean much, because some wins are cheap (e.g. Henin in 2001 earned a lot of her 59 wins in Tier III events). There is truth to this -- but winning a lot still takes effort. Serena had a consistent advantage over her opponents in 2002: She was more rested. Logically, she ought to be able to win.
Statistic 3: Titles in a season
The following list shows every player in the last 20 years with 8 or more titles in a year, and every player who led the tour in a given year even if she didn't have 8 titles. Note: This is irritatingly approximate for some of the early years, partly because the WTA wasn't then on a calendar system and partly because their records are a mess. So, e.g., the WTA lists Navratilova as having 12 titles in 1985 -- but that was Tour year 1985. We've adjusted as best we can, both here and in the next item. We may not have succeeded. But the top six are pretty definitely the top six; it's just that the order may be a little off.
1. Navratilova/1984.........15
2. Graf/1989................14
2. Navratilova/1986.........14
4. Navratilova/1983.........13
5. Navratilova/1985.........13
6. Hingis/1997..............12
7. Evert/1985...............11
7. Graf/1987................11
9. Graf/1988................10
9. Graf/1990................10
9. Graf/1993................10
9. Seles/1991...............10
9. Seles/1992...............10
... Graf/1995.................9
... Hingis/2000...............9
... Navratilova/1988..........9
... Seles/1990................9
... Graf/1992.................8
... Navratilova/1989..........8
... Sanchez-Vicario/1994......8
... Serena/2002...............8
... Davenport/1999............7
... Davenport/2001............7
... Graf/1996.................7
... Hingis/1999...............7
... Davenport/1998............6
Serena had eight titles in 2002. This is not that bad by recent standards, as the above list shows -- but historically it is weak indeed; until 1994, the winningest player had had at least ten titles every season in the entire Open Era!
Statistic 4: Fraction of Events Won
This takes the preceding list and divides it by number of events played.
1. Navratilova/1984.........88%
2. Graf/1989................88%
3. Graf/1987................85%
4. Navratilova/1983.........81%
5. Navratilova/1986.........78%
6. Graf/1988................77%
7. Navratilova/1985.........72%
8. Hingis/1997..............71%
9. Graf/1995................69%
10. Graf/1990................67%
10. Graf/1993................67%
10. Seles/1992...............67%
... Graf/1996................64%
... Seles/1991...............63%
... Serena/2002..............62%
... Evert/1985...............61%
... Seles/1990...............60%
... Graf/1992................57%
... Navratilova/1988.........56%
... Navratilova/1989.........50%
... Sanchez-Vicario/1994.....47%
... Hingis/2000..............45%
... Davenport/2001...........41%
... Davenport/1999...........37%
... Hingis/1999..............35%
... Davenport/1998...........30%
Thus we see that, even taking number of events played into account, Serena doesn't stand all that high -- her winning percentage is actually below the #2 player in one year (1985).
Statistic 5: Slams Won
As a sort of tiebreak in this category, we'll award an extra half-point for winning the year-end championships. We'll only list years where a player had two or more Slams since 1983.
1. Graf/1988..............4.0
2. Navratilova/1983.......3.5
2. Navratilova/1984.......3.5
2. Graf/1989..............3.5
2. Seles/1991.............3.5
2. Seles/1992.............3.5
2. Graf/1995..............3.5
2. Graf/1996..............3.5
9. Navratilova/1986.......3.0*
9. Hingis/1997............3.0
9. Serena/2002............3.0
12. Navratilova/1985.......2.5
12. Navratilova/1987.......2.0
12. Sanchez-Vicario/1994...2.0
12. Venus/2000.............2.0
12. Capriati/2001..........2.0
12. Venus/2001.............2.0
* Navratilova won only two Slams in 1986 but had two "year-end" titles.
Finally, Serena gets into the Top 12.
So let's analyze what we have here. This is just for singles, and we will fiddle. But let's find every year that's in the Top 12 in one of our five categories. There are 23 such years (meaning, obviously, that several years had multiple qualifying players):
Capriati/2001
Evert/1985
Graf/1987
Graf/1988
Graf/1989
Graf/1990
Graf/1993
Graf/1995
Graf/1996
Hingis/1997
Hingis/2000
Navratilova/1983
Navratilova/1984
Navratilova/1985
Navratilova/1986
Navratilova/1987
Navratilova/1989
Sanchez-Vicario/1994
Seles/1991
Seles/1992
Serena/2002
Venus/2000
Venus/2001
Now we're going to pull one more trick: We're going to tack on some doubles. Not much, but a little -- since, like total wins, it represents effort the players had to expend. Here is what we will do: We will award four points for each doubles Slam win and one point for each additional doubles title. The doubles points for the above players then become:
Navratilova/1984........24
Navratilova/1983........22
Navratilova/1986........20
Navratilova/1987........18
Navratilova/1985........17
Sanchez-Vicario/1994....14
Navratilova/1989........13
Hingis/1997.............11
Hingis/2000.............11
Graf/1988................5
Serena/2002..............5
Venus/2000...............4
Venus/2001...............4
Seles/1991...............2
Graf/1987................1
Graf/1989................1
Graf/1993................1
Seles/1992...............1
Capriati/2001............0
Evert/1985...............0
Graf/1990................0
Graf/1995................0
Graf/1996................0
Incidentally, there are some great doubles years missing here -- e.g. Shriver consistently was earning 15-25 points a year in the mid-Eighties, mostly with Navratilova; Hingis's Grand Slam year of 1998 would have given her 21 points that year (Hingis, incidentally, is the first player since Graf in 1988 to have five Slams, singles and doubles, in one year -- which also points up that Serena had four Slams in 2002; prior to Hingis's four in 1997 and five in 1998, and Jana Novotna's four in 1998, the last player to do that was, yes, Graf). But neither Hingis nor Shriver had particularly great singles years those years.
And so, the moment we've all been waiting for: The Greatest Year List.
This, though, requires explanation. Here's what we're going to do: We'll grant 20 points for the best year (#1 in any of the above lists). #2 is worth 16, #3 worth 13, #4 worth 11, #5 worth 9, #6 worth 7, #7 worth 6, #8 worth 5, #9 worth 4, #10 worth 3, #11 worth 2, and #12 worth 1 point. Anything below #12 is worth 0. We will halve everyone's doubles points for this purpose. That gives us the following totals:
1. Navratilova/1984..........88
2. Navratilova/1983..........82
3. Graf/1989.................80.5
4. Navratilova/1986..........68
5. Navratilova/1985..........41.5
6. Graf/1988.................40.5
7. Graf/1987.................34.5
8. Hingis/1997...............30.5
9. Seles/1992................26.5
10. Seles/1991................23
11. Graf/1995.................20
12. Graf/1996.................18
13. Evert/1985................15
14. Graf/1993.................13.5
15. Hingis/2000...............11.5
16. Graf/1990.................11
17. Navratilova/1987..........10
18. Sanchez-Vicario/1994.......8
19. Navratilova/1989...........7.5
20. Serena/2002................6.5
21. Venus/2001.................3
21. Venus/2000.................3
23. Capriati/2001..............1
We'd say, though, that this gives a little too much weight to absolute successes (total wins, total titles) compared to rate of success (winning percent, fraction of tournaments won). So let's make a modification: Let's halve the points awarded for total wins and total titles. (Note that both of these help Serena, who had relatively few wins and titles.) That gives us this list for best years:
1. Navratilova/1984..........74.5
2. Navratilova/1983..........70
3. Graf/1989.................64.5
4. Navratilova/1986..........53.5
5. Graf/1988.................37
6. Navratilova/1985..........33
7. Hingis/1997...............26
7. Graf/1987.................26
9. Seles/1992................25
10. Seles/1991................22
11. Graf/1995.................18
11. Graf/1996.................18
13. Evert/1985................10.5
14. Navratilova/1987..........10
15. Graf/1990..................9.5
15. Graf/1993..................9.5
17. Hingis/2000................8.5
18. Sanchez-Vicario/1994.......8
19. Navratilova/1989...........7
20. Serena/2002................6.5
21. Venus/2001.................3
21. Venus/2000.................3
23. Capriati/2001..............1
Obviously this doesn't take some things into account, such as Graf's 1988 Grand Slam. But Graf herself has said that she thought her 1989 was better than her 1988 -- she missed one Slam but had a better overall record. And that comes out here.
And it puts Serena at #20 in the all-time years list. Lower, frankly, than we expected. We didn't expect her to have one of the truly great years -- but certainly we thought she had done better than this. What it really seems to show is how things have levelled out over the past few years. Our expectations of a #1 player have clearly been lowered. Informally, we knew that. But this demonstrated how much they have lowered. Note that, since 1993, we haven't had a single year with a player in the Top Five in any of our statistical category, and only Hingis's 1997 is in the Top Ten in the big statistics of winning percentage and wins and titles and title winning percentage. Serena's year isn't great by historical standards -- but it's certainly the best since Hingis in 1997. Indeed, 1997 seems to be the watershed year: Until that time, the dominant players were of all sorts -- Hingis the shotmaker, Seles the two-handed basher, Graf the fast mover with the forehand, Navratilova the serve-and-volleyer, Sanchez-Vicario the scrambler. Since then, except for Hingis (who is obviously fading, though she held up pretty well until 2001), it's been all bashers, all the time. So you could make a case that Serena is the best basher of all time. Or, at least, the best basher since Seles was stabbed....