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charmedRic
Nov 5th, 2012, 02:00 PM
From Dr. Master's Wunderground Blog:
Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with on Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the U.S. National Weather Service), are now in agreement on both the track and intensity of the storm. The storm will move off the coast of South Carolina/Georgia on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 2 - 3" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, intensifying into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 984 mb by Wednesday evening. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, is slower, predicting the Nor'easter's highest winds will begin affecting New Jersey on Wednesday night. The GFS model is about 12 hours faster, predicting the strongest winds will arrive on Wednesday morning. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts, accompanied by a swath of 2 - 3" of rain. The heaviest rains will likely fall over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm also has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England. The storm is still four days away, and four-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves. The surge and waves will potentially cause moderate to severe erosion on New Jersey coast, where Hurricane Sandy pulverized the protective beach dunes.
FULL ENTRY (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2286)


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From the Accuweather homepage:
Another storm set to ride up the East Coast could lead to major coastal flooding along the already battered New Jersey coastline.
With residents along the mid-Atlantic coast trying to clean up the wreckage and damage caused by Hurricane Sandy earlier this week, Mother Nature is about to cause even more problems along the coast.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are concerned that a storm system riding up the East Coast could lead to a devastating water rise along the New Jersey coast on Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
FULL ARTICLE (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/coastal-flooding-a-major-conce/1044406)


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Hoping this isn't as "impactful" as the models indicate. While the waves and surge look not to be as bad as Sandy or past Nor'easters, a lot of the sand dunes and remaining infrastructure just isn't as strong as it was pre-Sandy.

charmedRic
Nov 5th, 2012, 09:55 PM
From a different weather blog:
Pretty much no change to the forecast of the development of a coastal storm that should begin to take shape sometime tomorrow off the SEUS coast. Analysis of the latest computer model runs indicates the lowest pressures associated with this system have come up somewhat. However, based on the analysis of various information at this time, do not take this lightly.

http://stormw.wordpress.com/

charmedRic
Nov 6th, 2012, 01:53 PM
Updated Entry from Wunderground:

An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.

The full entry HERE. (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2287)