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marineblue
Sep 25th, 2011, 07:31 PM
People who donīt like Caroline like to claim no.1 ranking doesnīt matter but I think we know the truth ;), it does.
So, which players do you consider to be the biggest threat to Caroīs no.1 rank?

backhandsmash
Sep 25th, 2011, 09:51 PM
In the long run, Azarenka without a doubt. She would have been #2 by now if not for a very bad draw at the USO. And of course Serena come Wimbledon time next year could be close.
And it might be too early to say this, but I think Zvonareva has missed her chance of ever becoming #1.

DownInAHole
Sep 25th, 2011, 10:48 PM
Who knows how she will do next season but when you look at how few tournaments Maria Sharapova has played this season you can make a case for her taking the number one ranking next year if she plays a bit more often.

goldenlox
Sep 25th, 2011, 11:34 PM
Until IW & Miami, Maria is probably the main rival for #1.
She didnt do much a year ago after Caroline beat her in NY. Then started this year slowly, then got sick & skipped Dubai, Doha.

Long term it will be Caroline's health. Eventually top players take more time off to stay healthy. I expect that will happen with Caroline too.

But now, I think she wants this YE #1.

Chrissie-fan
Sep 25th, 2011, 11:56 PM
People who donīt like Caroline like to claim no.1 ranking doesnīt matter but I think we know the truth ;), it does.
Of course it does. If it didn't they wouldn't nag about it 24/7. :lol:
So, which players do you consider to be the biggest threat to Caroīs no.1 rank?
-Serena if she plays enough tournaments and stays healthy
-Sharapova if she plays more tournaments, and I have a feeling that trying to get back to #1 will be more of a goal for her than Serena.
-Kvitova - maybe, if she gets a bit more consistent and learns how to deal with the pressure of being a slam champ.

The most immediate threat is Maria though. She's the closest at the moment and I think she wants it the most.

terjw
Sep 26th, 2011, 12:20 AM
Of course it does. If it didn't they wouldn't nag about it 24/7. :lol:

-Serena if she plays enough tournaments and stays healthy
-Sharapova if she plays more tournaments, and I have a feeling that trying to get back to #1 will be more of a goal for her than Serena.
-Kvitova - maybe, if she gets a bit more consistent and learns how to deal with the pressure of being a slam champ.

The most immediate threat is Maria though. She's the closest at the moment and I think she wants it the most.

I wouldn't underestimate Vika though as well. Of course - she does have this retirements problem. But after IW and when she won Miami - I think she's upped her level and I've been quite impressed with the way she's played.

marineblue
Sep 26th, 2011, 07:12 AM
Interesting points. I think Maria is the one who probably aims to get there but I donīt think that she will overtake Caroline for the YEC. She has had a good year but she also had some really bad losses. I mean, Voskoboeva, Pennetta, rusty Serena... those are not the kind of players to lose to.
I think players like Vika and Vera are not too keen to get there because of all the fuss that media and some fans make about not having a slam.
As for Kvitova, her results are far from what Iīd expected. She started to slump since Wimbledon and so far has not put it together so I donīt see her as a major threat.

Anyhow, the competition for no.1 will probably get more interesting next season. Believe it or not (Bruce, haha) Ivanovic is aiming to get back into the mix according to her recent interview. She is playing better now but it is Ivanovic... On the other hand having her and JJ back in top 10 would be interesting.

poulao
Sep 26th, 2011, 10:26 AM
There are of cause rivals, but they all have something to prove, even Maria. ;)

QuietPlease
Sep 26th, 2011, 12:52 PM
As of right now clearly Maria. She may be 3000 points behind on the rankings, but in the race for YE #1 she is actually less than 1000 behind. Should Caro get the YE #1 again, she's got a lot more points to defend in AO/Dubai, so Maria has a big chance to get to #1 in early 2012.

Long term it's probably Vika.

Protoss
Sep 26th, 2011, 01:43 PM
Interesting points. I think Caro is the one who probably aims to get there but I donīt think that she will finish at year end #1. She has had a good year but she also had some really bad losses. I mean, McHale, Vinci, Cibulkova (twice)... those are not the kind of players to lose to.
I think players like Vika and Vera are not too keen to get there because of all the fuss that media and some fans make about not having a slam.
As for Kvitova, her results are far from what Iīd expected. She started to slump since Wimbledon and so far has not put it together so I donīt see her as a major threat.

Anyhow, the competition for no.1 will probably get more interesting next season. Believe it or not (Bruce, haha) Ivanovic is aiming to get back into the mix according to her recent interview. She is playing better now but it is Ivanovic... On the other hand having her and JJ back in top 10 would be interesting.
Made a slight correction to your 1st paragraph. :p

It's not like they're gonna try to lose matches to avoid that though. :shrug:

Ivanovic has been saying that sort of thing for some time. :shrug: For every player that enters the top 10, someone else exits the top 10.

Crockett
Sep 26th, 2011, 02:34 PM
Made a slight correction to your 1st paragraph. :p
And you made a good point. Maria and Caroline have had comparable results since the beginning of the year, which is reflected in the race. Caroline is a bit ahead, but their results during the remainder of the year vill be crucial. If they both do badly for the rest of the year, a third player may end up grabbing #1 in Istanbul, but their road to that goal is much more difficult.

terjw
Sep 26th, 2011, 08:36 PM
I think players like Vika and Vera are not too keen to get there because of all the fuss that media and some fans make about not having a slam.
Anyhow, the competition for no.1 will probably get more interesting next season. Believe it or not (Bruce, haha) Ivanovic is aiming to get back into the mix according to her recent interview. She is playing better now but it is Ivanovic... On the other hand having her and JJ back in top 10 would be interesting.

I don't believe for a minute that Vika and Vera are not keen to get to #1.

As for Ana though - she always says those sort of things. She was talking about winning slams back at the AO. She also said she was playing better now than in 2008. So I don't take any notice of what she says because she seems mostly in denial the last 3 years. She has blown hot and cold this last year and she has put in some good performances mixed with bad ones. Also she was playing well at the end of last year. So maybe she can get back. But I wouldn't pay any attention to what she says in an interview.

goldenlox
Sep 26th, 2011, 10:33 PM
I don't believe for a minute that Vika and Vera are not keen to get to #1.

....I agree. This is made up in GM; that players dont want to be #1.
Of course you do. Its a sign that you are the best player week in and week out.
Its the same computer formula for everyone. It doesnt play favorites.

Its not easy to get there. In the last 50 weeks its Caro & Kim for one week.
Very hard to get there. Extremely hard to stay there. Caroline is already top 8 or 9 all time in weeks at #1.
Very hard to stay there

There are fewer long term #1's than at least 2 slam winners like Sveta. Its harder to do.
And Caroline still has years ahead to win majors.

marineblue
Sep 27th, 2011, 04:54 PM
Well, that is true but nowadays people just donīt want to appreciate all the hard work that players put in to get there and instead of praise ridicule slamless no.1s for that reason I thought that players like Vika or Vera would hesitate to get there. They are both not as tough mentally as as Caroline is. Especially with Vera, I think this kind of pressure and criticism would be extremely difficult for her to bear.

goldenlox
Sep 27th, 2011, 10:59 PM
Well, that is true but nowadays people just donīt want to appreciate all the hard work that players put in to get there and instead of praise ridicule slamless no.1s for that reason I thought that players like Vika or Vera would hesitate to get there. They are both not as tough mentally as as Caroline is. Especially with Vera, I think this kind of pressure and criticism would be extremely difficult for her to bear.For the rest of your life you are a former #1, if you get there.
Why would anyone not want that? You think if 12 year olds are asked what they want to accomplish in tennis, they say " I want to win majors and be ranked 7-12"
Its a ton of hard work to be #1, and to stay there, an incredible amount of quality play.

Only one player on the tour is #1 longer than Caro. That's Serena. No one else.

QuietPlease
Sep 27th, 2011, 11:36 PM
Anyhow, the competition for no.1 will probably get more interesting next season.

The competition is on right now!

Caroline's 1030 point lead in the WTA race is misleading. Beijing and Istanbul are mandatory and must be included in the best 16. Therefore, right now we should look at their best 14 results this season. After R2 in Tokyo Caroline's lead is just 595 points. Caroline must reach SF this week to increase her total, whereas every round counts for Maria!

Caroline:

AO - 900
FO - 160
W - 280
USO - 900

IW - 1000
Miami - 140
Madrid - 140
Beij - ?
YEC - ?

Dubai - 900
Charl - 470
Brus - 470
NH - 470
Rome -395
Doha - 320
Stut - 320

Total = 6865

-----------------------------------

Maria:

AO - 280
FO - 900
W - 1400
USO - 160

IW - 450
Miami - 700
Madrid - 140
Beij - ?
YEC - ?

Rome - 900
Cin - 900
Tokyo - 125
Toron - 125
Stan - 120
Auck - 70

Total = 6270

If both win tomorrow the gap will be 495 points, if both reach SF the gap will be 400 points!

goldenlox
Sep 27th, 2011, 11:45 PM
It will probably come down to Turkey.
And next year, Maria has much less to defend before Miami

QuietPlease
Sep 28th, 2011, 11:55 AM
Great tennis by Kaia and Caroline is on her way to Beijing :cry:

The best 14 gap between Caroline and Maria is now just 495 points, if Maria wins Tokyo she will take the lead in the race for YE#1!

Jimmie48
Sep 28th, 2011, 11:56 AM
To be honest, Iīm kind of hoping for a great performance by Maria now just to get this over with. I think she needs to lose the ranking both as a warning sign and to get some pressure off.

And if that doesn't help...well then weīre out of options Iīm afraid.

CWTennis
Sep 28th, 2011, 12:05 PM
To be honest, Iīm kind of hoping for a great performance by Maria now just to get this over with. I think she needs to lose the ranking both as a warning sign and to get some pressure off.

Me too! Maria can take this # 1 ranking! And Caro has hard work to do in the off season, improving her serve and that messy forehand, hopefully with new coach! :fiery:

goldenlox
Sep 28th, 2011, 12:43 PM
Caroline was #1 every week but 1 in 2011.
I'd like to see her finish YE #1. Those are hard to do, you dont give them up because there's pressure.
People expect her to play well. That pressure will be there even if she loses #1

Jorn
Sep 28th, 2011, 01:21 PM
Ithink Vika and Vera Z. also are in the Race for YE#1.


Caro on No. 2-3 spot won't give her much less pressure... so just try stay on No. 1! But now it all in Sharapova's hands...

goldenlox
Sep 28th, 2011, 01:26 PM
It will probably come down to the YEC

Sharapova needs to reach final at #WTATokyo (http://twitter.com/#!/search?q=%23WTATokyo) AND win Beijing to have a CHANCE at returning to #WTA (http://twitter.com/#!/search?q=%23WTA) No.1 the week after

backhandsmash
Sep 28th, 2011, 01:28 PM
Ithink Vika and Vera Z. also are in the Race for YE#1.


Caro on No. 2-3 spot won't give her much less pressure... so just try stay on No. 1! But now it all in Sharapova's hands...


Vera has a final to defend in Beijing and a SF in YEC (with 3 RR wins). Almost 1400 points. So, no, I don't think she is an immediate threat. If a threat at all, compared to Maria and Vika.

goldenlox
Sep 28th, 2011, 03:05 PM
To be honest, Iīm kind of hoping for a great performance by Maria now just to get this over with. I think she needs to lose the ranking both as a warning sign and to get some pressure off.

And if that doesn't help...well then weīre out of options Iīm afraid.Dropping to #2 doesnt take the pressure off because if she has a good tournament or 2 she will get back to #1.

The only way to play without pressure is drop way back like Jankovic did. But age 21 she should be looking to play big matches, not run from them.

Of course if she keeps losing to Vinci, Mchale & Kanepi, she wont play many big matches

terjw
Sep 28th, 2011, 08:12 PM
Caroline was #1 every week but 1 in 2011.
I'd like to see her finish YE #1. Those are hard to do, you dont give them up because there's pressure.
People expect her to play well. That pressure will be there even if she loses #1

Me too. No way do I want to see her lose that #1. Don't get me wrong - I don't want her #1 if she hasn't earned it with enough points. But getting to #1 and staying at #1 is not at all easy as some would make out. If you are #1 - you have to have played well and to keep it you have to keep playing well. Nothing over 12 months ago counts for anything in the rankings. So you really need to win titles and keep winning. If she loses #1 - it will be deserved and mean she's not playing as well. And I don't want that. I don't want to come back from work and see she's lost in round 2 like today. I want to see her winning titles like she did to be #1.

goldenlox
Sep 28th, 2011, 08:45 PM
A battle for YE #1 between Caro & Maria is probably very good for the WTA.
But its even better if they both are playing well.
So hopefully they both get into the YEC semis, which wont be easy.
Caroline has to play well to make this a memorable race.

DownInAHole
Sep 28th, 2011, 09:59 PM
Me too. No way do I want to see her lose that #1. Don't get me wrong - I don't want her #1 if she hasn't earned it with enough points. But getting to #1 and staying at #1 is not at all easy as some would make out. If you are #1 - you have to have played well and to keep it you have to keep playing well. Nothing over 12 months ago counts for anything in the rankings. So you really need to win titles and keep winning. If she loses #1 - it will be deserved and mean she's not playing as well. And I don't want that. I don't want to come back from work and see she's lost in round 2 like today. I want to see her winning titles like she did to be #1.

I can meet you halfway. I want to see Caroline winning titles too but I find it hard to get excited about her winning Charleston by defeating Elena Vesnina in the final, winning Copenhagen defeating Lucie Safarova in the final and winning New Haven defeating Petra Cetkovska in the final. She seems stuck halfway between winning mid tier titles and winning premier 5's, mandatories and majors. Last summer/fall and into this year she seemed to be making great strides and started winning some big titles but since Indian Wells she has dropped back down to winning the smaller events and, with a couple of exceptions (Rome and the US Open) she has not been competing for the bigger titles. I might be the only one but I don't care about her winning those smaller events anymore. They were a great stepping stone but her focus should now be on the bigger events. She's got to up her game and start beating top five players on a consistent basis. The fact that she is currently not good enough to even get deep enough into tournaments to play top five players is disappointing. I really want to see her playing the best players because I believe that will force her to become a better player.

terjw
Sep 28th, 2011, 10:47 PM
I can meet you halfway. I want to see Caroline winning titles too but I find it hard to get excited about her winning Charleston by defeating Elena Vesnina in the final, winning Copenhagen defeating Lucie Safarova in the final and winning New Haven defeating Petra Cetkovska in the final. She seems stuck halfway between winning mid tier titles and winning premier 5's, mandatories and majors. Last summer/fall and into this year she seemed to be making great strides and started winning some big titles but since Indian Wells she has dropped back down to winning the smaller events and, with a couple of exceptions (Rome and the US Open) she has not been competing for the bigger titles. I might be the only one but I don't care about her winning those smaller events anymore. They were a great stepping stone but her focus should now be on the bigger events. She's got to up her game and start beating top five players on a consistent basis. The fact that she is currently not good enough to even get deep enough into tournaments to play top five players is disappointing. I really want to see her playing the best players because I believe that will force her to become a better player.

Why meet only halfway? Just winning the smaller events won't give her enough points to keep #1. Where did I say I wnated her to just win the smaller events? My post was in the context of someone wanting Maria to play well to get the #1 ranking to "take the pressure off". I don't want that and at the start of Tokyo - there were only 3 events left this year for Caro to play - and all of them are big events. Now there are two.

DownInAHole
Sep 28th, 2011, 10:54 PM
Why meet only halfway? Just winning the smaller events won't give her enough points to keep #1. Where did I say I wnated her to just win the smaller events? My post was in the context of someone wanting Maria to play well to get the #1 ranking to "take the pressure off". I don't want that and at the start of Tokyo - there were only 3 events left this year for Caro to play - and all of them are big events. Now there are two.

Where did I say that you said you wanted her to just win the smaller events?:p

For me Indian Wells seems like it was a long time ago. I just want to see her competing at the "big" events again. Yes, she made the semis at the US Open but otherwise she has been very much off of late.

marineblue
Sep 29th, 2011, 12:16 AM
I also don't want her to lose the ranking. This is what she has worked so hard for, she should do her best to defend it. Maria is close but she is not quite unbeatable right now. There are many challenges awaiting her in Tokyo and the same in Beijing.

QuietPlease
Sep 29th, 2011, 10:54 AM
I feel sorry for Sharapova twisting her ankle. Not the way I wanted Caroline to keep #1.
Well, I guess Vika and Petra are still in the race for YE #1, especially if one of them wins Tokyo, which seems likely.

A quick recovery form Sharapova and she still has a chance too.

I just hope Caroline gets her act together and wins the YEC!

Jimmie48
Sep 29th, 2011, 11:44 AM
Seriously, this starts to feel spooky....every time she has an early exit lately, none of her competitors can really capitalize on it for some reason or another.

Iīm not sure that more weeks being #1 is what she needs right now though...

marineblue
Sep 29th, 2011, 04:11 PM
Why not? If Maria was not injured she could still lose anyway and so could Serena, Kim or whoever. You never know how they'd do unless they actually played.

goldenlox
Sep 29th, 2011, 04:16 PM
The WTA would love Caroline & Maria to battle for YE #1.
They are the top 2 women in all sports on the Forbes list.

But Maria will have more chances early next year.
Serena might be in the race later next year.

Right now its important for Caroline to play better.
She had two 3 setters, so she should be match ready for a good run in Beijing

QuietPlease
Sep 30th, 2011, 09:36 AM
I feel sorry for Sharapova twisting her ankle. Not the way I wanted Caroline to keep #1.
Well, I guess Vika and Petra are still in the race for YE #1, especially if one of them wins Tokyo, which seems likely.

A quick recovery form Sharapova and she still has a chance too.

I just hope Caroline gets her act together and wins the YEC!

I guess not.
Maria got injured, Vika and Petra lost their SFs and Caro is still the fave for YE#1.

Jimmie48
Sep 30th, 2011, 10:07 AM
Told you, somebody's watching over her ranking, it freaks me out :lol:

backhandsmash
Sep 30th, 2011, 10:12 AM
And Vera will probably lose the final now.

DownInAHole
Sep 30th, 2011, 12:07 PM
Told you, somebody's watching over her ranking, it freaks me out :lol:

It is getting a little bit eerie. Kim took the number one ranking briefly and has since played very little due to injury. The other slam winners have all slumped, to varying degrees, after their big wins. Vera has tailed off a bit and slid down the rankings, particularly the race rankings, Maria lost early at the US Open and in Tokyo and Viktoria had the misfortune of running into Serena in the third round of the US Open.

For some reason the tennis gods appear to want Caroline to keep that number one ranking. If she does end 2011 at number one I hope she has deep runs in Beijing and the tour championship, right now she is barely clinging to her ranking and it would be better if she fought to keep it.

Jorn
Sep 30th, 2011, 05:01 PM
Its a close race for No. 1...

Race to #1 (taking into account that YEC points will replace 16th result)

Wozniacki 6865
Sharapova 6370
Kvitova 5685
Li 5345
Azarenka 5330
Zvonareva 4920 (5200 with a title)
Stosur 4835

QuietPlease
Oct 3rd, 2011, 06:57 PM
Sharapova injured. Li and Kvitova losing their first match...
Caroline's chances of getting the YE#1 is improving. I just hope she ends the year in style, winning either Beijing or Istanbul...or both!

marineblue
Oct 3rd, 2011, 07:51 PM
Both! :bounce:

Jimmie48
Oct 3rd, 2011, 08:03 PM
Wow, you guys sure are optimistic.... I would be glad with a SF in both to be honest.

DownInAHole
Oct 3rd, 2011, 09:17 PM
Wow, you guys sure are optimistic.... I would be glad with a SF in both to be honest.

I'm hoping that she is able to avoid going 0-3 at the YEC. I'm really unsure about how she will do there. She has not had a ton of match play against her potential opponents this year. Between Tokyo and Beijing I was hoping that she would play as many of them as possible. Tokyo was a bust and it looks like she will have to make the semis and final to play any of them in Beijing.

QuietPlease
Oct 4th, 2011, 03:22 PM
Wow, you guys sure are pessimistic....

There's always hope! :bounce:

Burisleif
Oct 4th, 2011, 03:50 PM
Wow, you guys sure are pessimistic....

There's always hope! :bounce:

:lol: Indeed there is...

Sometimes I worry for BuriedAliveInADarkPit ;)

DownInAHole
Oct 4th, 2011, 04:14 PM
Wow, you guys sure are pessimistic....

There's always hope! :bounce:

That is probably true but I am quite nervous about how she will do against the other top players. Other than Schiavone (assuming she makes it) Caroline has not had much match play against the rest of them this year. Players like Li, Kvitova and Stosur appear to be slumping but Sam wasn't playing great heading into the YEC last year either and she still defeated Caroline fairly easily and all three of them could be tough matchups for Caroline.. I think that Azarenka is playing much better now than she was the last time Caroline played her in a completed match and Vera is always tricky. I would quite like to see another match against Sharapova, they played twice this year with each winning once.

I'm quite excited to see how Caroline does against the other top players but at the same time I am fairly nervous.

DownInAHole
Oct 4th, 2011, 04:15 PM
:lol: Indeed there is...

Sometimes I worry for BuriedAliveInADarkPit ;)

I am unfamiliar with that poster but he sounds like quite a jerk.;)

Burisleif
Oct 4th, 2011, 04:20 PM
I am unfamiliar with that poster but he sounds like quite a jerk.;)

Nah he's actually a really nice guy that suffers a bit from being stranded in the far north and is a bit over reliant on Caro to supplement his annual sunshine dose... ;)

QuietPlease
Oct 4th, 2011, 06:45 PM
2011 Ranking Race after Beijing, leaving room for Istanbul as 16th result:



Caroline Wozniacki 7115 7315 7565 7865
Maria Sharapova 6370
Petra Kvitova 5690
Victoria Azarenka 5470
Li Na 5350
Vera Zvonareva 5065
Samantha Stosur 4915
Marion Bartoli 4330




Even if Caro loses to Pennetta and goes 0-3 in Istanbul (210 points), she will end the year with 7,325 points.


Who can pass Caro for YE#1?


Maria Sharapova:
Not expected to play before Istanbul.
Could pass Caro as RU with 3 RR victories. 6,370 + 1,050 = 7,420

Petra Kvitova:
Might play Linz before Istanbul.
Could pass Caro if she wins Linz and become undefeated champion in Instanbul.
5,690 + (280-100) + 1,500 = 7,370.

Victoria Azarenka:
Might play Luxembourg before Istanbul.
5,470 + (280-120) + 1500 = 7,130. Cannot end year as #1.

Li Na:
Not expected to play before Istanbul.
5,350 + 1,500 = 6,850. Not enough, she needs WC in both coming weeks to threaten Caro.
She can only gain 410 points in Moscow (470-60), so she needs points in Osaka/Linz too.
6,850 + 410 = 7,260

Vera Zvonareva:
Expected to play Moscow before Istanbul.
5,065 + (470-130) + 1,500 = 6,905. Cannot end year as #1.

Samantha Stosur:
Expected to play Osaka & Moscow before Istanbul.
4,915 + (280-60) + (470-200) + 1,500 = 6,905. Cannot end year as #1.

Only Maria and Petra (with a deep run in Linz) can threaten Caroline as #1 this year.

Protoss
Oct 5th, 2011, 05:41 AM
I read in Kvitova's forum that's she playing Linz.

QuietPlease
Oct 5th, 2011, 07:05 AM
I read in Kvitova's forum that's she playing Linz.

Ok, they just gave a WC to Jelena Jankovic. We'll see. Linz points (280-100=180) could help Kvitova.

QuietPlease
Oct 5th, 2011, 11:52 AM
Updated post #50 after Vera was crushed by Super-Ana, and Vika withdrew.

QuietPlease
Oct 6th, 2011, 04:08 PM
Updated post #50 after R3.

Jorn
Oct 6th, 2011, 05:32 PM
Any news about Maria? do I has to get a new avatar? ;)

(Even I can't see any avatars ithink I still has the YE#1)


Ser ud til at flaske sig for Caro så "kun" Maria er en trussel...

CWTennis
Oct 6th, 2011, 06:21 PM
Any news about Maria? do I has to get a new avatar? ;)

(Even I can't see any avatars ithink I still has the YE#1)


Ser ud til at flaske sig for Caro så "kun" Maria er en trussel...

MariaSharapova (http://www.facebook.com/Sharapova)
Getting better little by little...
19 hours ago

http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/772/31179210150309423052680.jpg

marineblue
Oct 6th, 2011, 07:51 PM
I read in Kvitova's forum that's she playing Linz.

It won't help anyway. I think she is heading to earn yet another embarrassment. There is no chance she will do well (not to say win) at YEC. She has been is such a hideous slump I doubt she'll stay in top 10 in 2012.

DownInAHole
Oct 6th, 2011, 08:55 PM
It won't help anyway. I think she is heading to earn yet another embarrassment. There is no chance she will do well (not to say win) at YEC. She has been is such a hideous slump I doubt she'll stay in top 10 in 2012.

Wow, I couldn't disagree with you any more strongly. True, she has not had great results since Wimbledon but she did even worse from July-October in 2010 than she is doing this year. I can't say why but she seems to struggle in the second half of the season. Still, I expect that she will have good-great results in the first half of next year and potentially she should do better in the second half too. She is a streaky player and occasionally prone to bad losses but when she is hot she is capable of defeating anyone. If she can become more consistent she will definitely be a fixture in the top ten/top five.

I also wouldn't underestimate her chances of doing well or possibly winning in Istanbul. I think it is fair to say that there is no clear favourite and none of them are playing great tennis at the moment. If any one of them can get hot at the YEC than they have a chance to win. This is a golden opportunity for one of them to step up and get a very nice win.

terjw
Oct 6th, 2011, 09:32 PM
Wow, I couldn't disagree with you any more strongly. True, she has not had great results since Wimbledon but she did even worse from July-October in 2010 than she is doing this year. I can't say why but she seems to struggle in the second half of the season. Still, I expect that she will have good-great results in the first half of next year and potentially she should do better in the second half too. She is a streaky player and occasionally prone to bad losses but when she is hot she is capable of defeating anyone. If she can become more consistent she will definitely be a fixture in the top ten/top five.

I also wouldn't underestimate her chances of doing well or possibly winning in Istanbul. I think it is fair to say that there is no clear favourite and none of them are playing great tennis at the moment. If any one of them can get hot at the YEC than they have a chance to win. This is a golden opportunity for one of them to step up and get a very nice win.

I agree. I would never underestimate Petra. She can play badly one day and out of this world the next tournament. I'd imagine she'll be one of the favourites to win the YEC along with Masha and Caro, maybe Vika - could be close.

But realistically as opposed to Mathematically - I think the Y/E #1 is a 2-horse race now between Masha and Caro

QuietPlease
Oct 6th, 2011, 10:29 PM
But realistically as opposed to Mathematically - I think the Y/E #1 is a 2-horse race now between Masha and Caro

No, realistically Caro is 2011 YE #1!
Mathematically Maria has a chance, Petra too, but that's a long shot.

In 2012 things are gonna heat up again though, as Caro has a lot to defend in AO, Dubai and IW.

TennisFan66
Oct 6th, 2011, 11:00 PM
No, realistically Caro is 2011 YE #1!
Mathematically Maria has a chance, Petra too, but that's a long shot.

In 2012 things are gonna heat up again though, as Caro has a lot to defend in AO, Dubai and IW.

I always chuckle a little, when I see this type of comment (Quiet, I am not picking on you! ) .. :)

I mean, this is how it is in sports. Barcelona doesn't take their points from the previous season into next one. Vettel wont start 2012 season with all his points from 2011 and Caroline Wozniacki won't get her points earned from more than 1 year ago in her 52 weeks points tally.

terjw
Oct 6th, 2011, 11:01 PM
No, realistically Caro is 2011 YE #1!
Mathematically Maria has a chance, Petra too, but that's a long shot.

In 2012 things are gonna heat up again though, as Caro has a lot to defend in AO, Dubai and IW.

OK - so what does Caro need to do now to guarantee Y/E #1 - not that I don't want her to do more and finish in style. Post #50 you gave what other players needed to do.

Jorn
Oct 7th, 2011, 12:02 AM
She need to reach the China Open Finale and play 3 RR YEC matches or win China Open.

Bonfire
Oct 7th, 2011, 01:25 AM
She need to reach the China Open Finale and play 3 RR YEC matches or win China Open.

thanks for the info...was wondering this myself.

monophonik
Oct 7th, 2011, 03:43 AM
If Caroline got to the Beijing Final and won 1 game at the YEC (6865+700+370 = 7935) she would clinch year end #1 (Maximum points Maria can get is 6370+1500 = 7870)

Any combination of Beijing & YEC results that gets Caroline 1006 pts. clinches YE #1. If Maria does not go undefeated at the YEC, the magic number goes down of course.

Protoss
Oct 7th, 2011, 03:55 AM
It won't help anyway. I think she is heading to earn yet another embarrassment. There is no chance she will do well (not to say win) at YEC. She has been is such a hideous slump I doubt she'll stay in top 10 in 2012.
Kvitova is somewhat streaky so it's hard to rule her out of not winning a tournament. You never know quite when she'll turn it on. :shrug:

QuietPlease
Oct 7th, 2011, 08:23 AM
I always chuckle a little, when I see this type of comment (Quiet, I am not picking on you! ) .. :)

I mean, this is how it is in sports. Barcelona doesn't take their points from the previous season into next one. Vettel wont start 2012 season with all his points from 2011 and Caroline Wozniacki won't get her points earned from more than 1 year ago in her 52 weeks points tally.

Exactly, come AO she has to defend 900 points, come Dubai she has to defend 900 points, come IW she has to defend 1,000 points. So while I have no doubt she'll end 2011 as #1, pressure will be on her rank in early 2012.

DownInAHole
Oct 7th, 2011, 09:06 AM
Exactly, come AO she has to defend 900 points, come Dubai she has to defend 900 points, come IW she has to defend 1,000 points. So while I have no doubt she'll end 2011 as #1, pressure will be on her rank in early 2012.

On the other hand if she does well at Roland Garros and Wimbledon she stands to gain quite a few points. I thought she would at least make the quarters/semis at one or both this year. That didn't happen but I think it will in 2012. Plus at Montreal and Cincinnati she will have a total of just two points to defend. I have a feeling she will do better at those two events in 2012.;)

Jimmie48
Oct 7th, 2011, 12:34 PM
Yep, 2012 will be interesting, she has tons to defend in the first half of the year and almost nothing after RG, safe from the USO SF and winning New Haven.

Protoss
Oct 7th, 2011, 12:41 PM
On the other hand if she does well at Roland Garros and Wimbledon she stands to gain quite a few points. I thought she would at least make the quarters/semis at one or both this year. That didn't happen but I think it will in 2012. Plus at Montreal and Cincinnati she will have a total of just two points to defend. I have a feeling she will do better at those two events in 2012.;)
Her 16th best result at the end of the season will be 320 points so Caro would need to reach the semis in Montreal or Cincinnati to gain points.

QuietPlease
Oct 7th, 2011, 02:57 PM
Projected ranking after Istanbul:


Name 0-3RR 1-2RR 2-1RR 3-0RR RU1RR RU2RR RU3RR W1RR W2RR W3RR

Caro Wozniacki 7,325 7,485 7,645 7,805 7,845 8,005 8,165 8,295 8,455 8,615
Maria Sharapova 6,580 6,740 6,900 7,060 7,100 7,260 7,420 7,550 7,710 7,870




The list does not take injuries/illness into account. Each lost RR match = 70 points, but if you don't play you get 0 points.

If Caroline loses 3 RR matches, Maria needs to be RU with 3 RR wins or become champion.
If Caroline wins 1 RR match and loses 2, Maria needs to be champion.
If Caroline is RU with 2 RR wins she is safe.

Petra still has a mathmatical chance if she gains points before Istanbul. If she does I'll add her to the list above.

goldenlox
Oct 7th, 2011, 03:39 PM
Caroline could have opened up the lead in Beijing.
Now the YEC could be a real race for #1 if Maria is healthy.

I'm not concerned about 2012, because I dont expect Caroline to be #1 for 52 weeks.
But this YE #1 is big, and still in doubt.

Jimmie48
Oct 7th, 2011, 03:43 PM
Losing the YE #1 in the last minute would be a big blow to her confidence I think. I don't think the threat is too big though..if Caro wins a bunch of matches Sharapova has to win the YEC basically, which is kind of unlikely given that she's been in kind of a slump herself and comes fresh off an injury.

Protoss
Oct 7th, 2011, 04:07 PM
If Caro doesn't finish the year at #1 she has only herself to blame. Too many points were left out there on the table such as grand slam chokes, blown good draws. :shrug:

I kind of wonder if not finishing the year at #1 is the kind of tough lesson she needs. :shrug:

goldenlox
Oct 7th, 2011, 04:12 PM
These are accomplishments you want. YE #1, majors. These you fight for.
No lessons needed.

DownInAHole
Oct 7th, 2011, 05:07 PM
If Caro doesn't finish the year at #1 she has only herself to blame. Too many points were left out there on the table such as grand slam chokes, blown good draws. :shrug:

I kind of wonder if not finishing the year at #1 is the kind of tough lesson she needs. :shrug:

I tend to agree. The last six months or so the tour has been very disappointing. Let's be real here, the only reason that Caroline is still number one is because her challengers are all playing as bad or worse than her. There is no "best" player at the moment but by default someone needs to be ranked number one and for the moment that is Caroline. I'm not rooting against her, if she does well at the YEC and moves on to the second round of play I will be happy to see her keep the ranking, but if she plays poorly I hope she loses it. If she wants to keep it she should have to do something to earn it.

I do think that there is something positive to take away from today's loss. Caroline finally showed some fight when her back was against the wall. I guess she also did so against Kuznetsova at the US Open but it feels like it has been a long time since Caroline really put up a fight in one of her losses. Of course it stinks that she was unable to come all the way back but it's still a positive sign.

QuietPlease
Oct 7th, 2011, 05:53 PM
I tend to agree. The last six months or so the tour has been very disappointing. Let's be real here, the only reason that Caroline is still number one is because her challengers are all playing as bad or worse than her. There is no "best" player at the moment but by default someone needs to be ranked number one and for the moment that is Caroline. I'm not rooting against her, if she does well at the YEC and moves on to the second round of play I will be happy to see her keep the ranking, but if she plays poorly I hope she loses it. If she wants to keep it she should have to do something to earn it.

I do think that there is something positive to take away from today's loss. Caroline finally showed some fight when her back was against the wall. I guess she also did so against Kuznetsova at the US Open but it feels like it has been a long time since Caroline really put up a fight in one of her losses. Of course it stinks that she was unable to come all the way back but it's still a positive sign.


It's still a good year. 6 titles! 5 Premiers including 2 Tier I. She managed to hold the #1 spot so long and it would be a great achievement to finish 1st for the second year straight!

That said I also hope she plays well at the YEC and makes it past RR! It would make the off season a little sweater ;)

goldenlox
Oct 7th, 2011, 07:46 PM
It's still a good year. 6 titles! 5 Premiers including 2 Tier I. She managed to hold the #1 spot so long and it would be a great achievement to finish 1st for the second year straight!

That said I also hope she plays well at the YEC and makes it past RR! It would make the off season a little sweater ;)Yeah, dont fall into that trap, that they give you in GM.
Where she HAS to win a major or she's done nothing.
But she also has to be great every nonmajor or she is bad.

This was a good year, not incredible, but similar to 2010. 2 slam semis, won a mandatory, 6 titles.
The YEC will settle how her year was, but it was good. Can be better, but she has to schedule a little better.

Jimmie48
Oct 7th, 2011, 07:50 PM
I think what makes people perceive the year in a different way is that she's running out of steam at the end of it this time while she finished her year very strong last year.

QuietPlease
Oct 7th, 2011, 09:50 PM
Yeah, dont fall into that trap, that they give you in GM.
Where she HAS to win a major or she's done nothing.
But she also has to be great every nonmajor or she is bad.

In GM, when other top players lose a match in Beijing it doesn't matter, Beijing is not a worthy Mandatory anyway, it should just have been a regular 470 point Premier :shrug:

But when Caro loses a match it's suddenly a big deal... :rolleyes:

QuietPlease
Oct 7th, 2011, 09:54 PM
I think what makes people perceive the year in a different way is that she's running out of steam at the end of it this time while she finished her year very strong last year.

Very true. Last half of 2010 and first half of 2011 was 2 good halves in a row.
But first half of 2010 wasn't really better than last half of 2011, so the years are similar (but opposite).
Lets see how she does at the YEC, and lets have a wonderful 2012 season :cool:

goldenlox
Oct 7th, 2011, 10:10 PM
People know her game now. Pennetta broke Caroline 8 or 9 times, in ONE MATCH!

She will have to work on her serve during the offseason, because players are confident they have a good chance to break.

To change that Caroline has to serve well and play better, more focused points during each service game.
She is too casual on her serve. Just this match, the amount of unforced forehand errors during her service games is way too much.

Burisleif
Oct 7th, 2011, 11:55 PM
Not important, but did anyone mention that she stated she was unhappy with the balls here? They are too heavy...

goldenlox
Oct 8th, 2011, 12:12 AM
Here is the interview I read. She knows she was up 6-5, 30-0 in set 3 and lost, so I hope she studies tapes of her broken service games.
From Na Li in January to now, its the service games that stop her


An interview with:
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI
THE MODERATOR: Questions, please.
Q. What do you want to say about the match you just had?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: Well, it was a tough match and we had a lot of good rallies. Of course it’s disappointing to lose, especially when you have your chances like I had.
But, you know, Flavia is a good player. She played very well today. So, yeah, I mean, I’ll try to do better next time.
Q. (Through translation.) Will you participate in another tournament or simply wait for the year‑end Championships?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: Well, now, I mean, I have the year‑end Championships to look forward to, so I’m going to go back and practice a little bit and then play in Istanbul.
Q. Despite you lose the match, I find out you have changed your skills, such as you have many winners. That seems to be the progress in your skills. So is that kind of idea from your coach?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: Um, no. I just played the same way I always played. You know, I’m just doing everything I can to try to win the match.
If it’s to get a lot balls back or to make winners, yeah, I mean, I play the way I have to to try to win.
Q. (Through translation.) Last year in Tokyo as well as in Beijing you won the championship. This year, you stopped in the quarterfinals. Comment on your season.
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: My season has been good: I won 6 tournaments and I’m still No. 1 in the world. No, it’s still a good season.
Q. As we all know, this is first time you lost to Flavia Pennetta. That’s wonderful match. But you are the defending champion at China Open last year, and this year you lost the game. The rest of your match is in Istanbul, right? So what’s your preparation for Istanbul and defending your world No. 1 ranking at the end of the year?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: I’m just going to go home and practice and prepare for Istanbul and go out there and do my best.
Q. (Through translation.) In this match, in the third set you broke Flavia when she was trying to serve out the match, but you did not hold your own service game. How would you comment on your performance for the day?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: Again, I did my best today. It just wasn’t good enough. I had my chances and didn’t take them. Of course it’s disappointing right now.
Q. (Through translation.) You have been playing in Grand Slams for years, and what do you think is the major difference between the four Grand Slams and the China Open?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: Well, the four Grand Slams have all the tradition has there for so many years. It’s just different.
Of course China Open is a big tournament, and it’s as mandatory tournament for us, but Grand Slams are always Grand Slams.
Q. You appeared to be staging quite a comeback there and then you just sort of faded off. Was it just fatigue or were you just outplayed? Were you feeling tired at all?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: No. Um, you know, I had 6‑5, 30‑Love and I should have closed the match off. But, you know, yeah, I don’t know. Flavia played some good points at that time, and I just made a few wrong decisions and the match can change.
So, you know, it’s unlucky. One time it goes one way and another time it goes the other way. I’ve won against Flavia also I think it was ‑‑ I can’t remember. I think either it was 7‑6 in the third or 6‑7, 7‑6, 6‑4 or something where it was also a very tough match.
So, you know, yeah, I knew that it was going to be tough out there today. Just didn’t manage to pull the win all the way through.

CWTennis
Oct 8th, 2011, 01:41 AM
oh Caro, it's not unlucky when you get broken 8 times in a match :o

DownInAHole
Oct 8th, 2011, 01:58 AM
It's still a good year. 6 titles! 5 Premiers including 2 Tier I. She managed to hold the #1 spot so long and it would be a great achievement to finish 1st for the second year straight!

That said I also hope she plays well at the YEC and makes it past RR! It would make the off season a little sweater ;)

I was speaking generally about the whole tour being disappointing, not just Caroline. We have had three first time slam winners that have all struggled after winning their slams. We have had a player ranked number one for virtually the entire season that not only failed to win a slam but did not even manage to make a slam final. Kim has been injured. Serena and Venus have been injured. The draw at the US Open collapsed in a fairly spectacular way. It just seems like no one has been playing consistently great or even good tennis over the last several months. I think it's very hard to make the case that this was a good year for the WTA.

As far as Caroline goes I don't know what to think. It is starting to look like the great play she showed in the latter half of 2010 and early in 2011 was an anomaly. Will she ever get back to that level of play or has she already peaked? Caroline has a lot of work to do on her game if she is ever going to fulfil her potential.

goldenlox
Oct 8th, 2011, 05:01 AM
I was speaking generally about the whole tour being disappointing, not just Caroline. ....I think you're paying too much attention to GM haters.
If Djokovic & Nadal win every big tournament, that doesnt mean the tour is great.

If a lot of different players have success in one year that doesnt mean the WTA is disappointing.

The WTA had a Djokovic situation when Henin won 35 matches in a row. She won FO, Eastbourne, had the one loss at Wimbledon, and almost all wins for 9 months something like 50 out of 51

Now the situation is fluid.
Caroline is a very good player who is always trying her best.
Everyone who saw Sharapova win Cincy saw the effort she put into it.
Kvitova has a big game, and she's Caroline's age.
Serena & KIm should both be back in 2012.

There are a lot of good players, and work extremely hard.
Its not disappointing unless you take that attitude towards it.

terjw
Oct 8th, 2011, 09:04 AM
I think you're paying too much attention to GM haters.
If Djokovic & Nadal win every big tournament, that doesnt mean the tour is great.

If a lot of different players have success in one year that doesnt mean the WTA is disappointing.

The WTA had a Djokovic situation when Henin won 35 matches in a row. She won FO, Eastbourne, had the one loss at Wimbledon, and almost all wins for 9 months something like 50 out of 51

Now the situation is fluid.
Caroline is a very good player who is always trying her best.
Everyone who saw Sharapova win Cincy saw the effort she put into it.
Kvitova has a big game, and she's Caroline's age.
Serena & KIm should both be back in 2012.

There are a lot of good players, and work extremely hard.
Its not disappointing unless you take that attitude towards it.

Exactly.

DownInAHole
Oct 8th, 2011, 11:23 AM
I think you're paying too much attention to GM haters.
If Djokovic & Nadal win every big tournament, that doesnt mean the tour is great.

If a lot of different players have success in one year that doesnt mean the WTA is disappointing.

The WTA had a Djokovic situation when Henin won 35 matches in a row. She won FO, Eastbourne, had the one loss at Wimbledon, and almost all wins for 9 months something like 50 out of 51

Now the situation is fluid.
Caroline is a very good player who is always trying her best.
Everyone who saw Sharapova win Cincy saw the effort she put into it.
Kvitova has a big game, and she's Caroline's age.
Serena & KIm should both be back in 2012.

There are a lot of good players, and work extremely hard.
Its not disappointing unless you take that attitude towards it.

I fundamentally disagree. I don't necessarily want to see one or two players dominating but I do want to see more consistency, particularly from the top ten. If it was a case of every week a different player stepped up and played better than everyone else that would be one thing but it seems to be that every week a large group of players play poorly and others step up by default. Often the players that are beating the higher ranked players lose their next match. That tells me that the better players are not necessarily being outperformed but more that they are underperforming. How often has Caroline had an inexplicable loss and the player that beat her lost her next match?

I look at the ATP and it is far too predictable. The WTA is the opposite, from week to week the top players are completely unreliable. I would like to see something in the middle. The tour would be far more entertaining if we got to see the top players play each other more often and some exciting rivalries developed. Over the last two seasons there have been virtually no interesting rivalries between the higher ranked players. For a while Caroline and Vera were meeting in some big matches but they haven't played each other since February. What have the other rivalries been?

I have virtually stopped reading posts in GM so I do not believe that "haters" there are influencing my opinion.

backhandsmash
Oct 8th, 2011, 02:20 PM
oh Caro, it's not unlucky when you get broken 8 times in a match :o

I think she got broken 7 times in Båstad in that hilarious "what is a serve anyway" match, against Cornet. And that was only 2 sets.

goldenlox
Oct 8th, 2011, 04:14 PM
I think she got broken 7 times in Båstad in that hilarious "what is a serve anyway" match, against Cornet. And that was only 2 sets.I dont think her serve is worse. Its a strategy her opponents have.
They know her serve is not strong, and they have a chance there. So they are very focused when Caroline serves.
This happens to good players like Dementieva, who are very tough to outrally.
The goal becomes to get breaks of serve.
Caroline has to be aware of that and stay very focused every point she serves

terjw
Oct 8th, 2011, 04:28 PM
I fundamentally disagree. I don't necessarily want to see one or two players dominating but I do want to see more consistency, particularly from the top ten. If it was a case of every week a different player stepped up and played better than everyone else that would be one thing but it seems to be that every week a large group of players play poorly and others step up by default. Often the players that are beating the higher ranked players lose their next match. That tells me that the better players are not necessarily being outperformed but more that they are underperforming. How often has Caroline had an inexplicable loss and the player that beat her lost her next match?


I'd have thought the obvious conclusion is that lower ranked players who get a good result by beating a top player and then losing their next match is that lower ranked players often play really well one match - raising their game against a #1 or slam winner or player with a great record - but can't keep that level up in the next round. So often I've seen a lower ranked player win or nearly win and the commentators say she top 5 material or something like that. Well the reason they are not is that they don't play like that very often at all.

Yet you seem to have come to a very obscure conclusion that the low ranked players play the same level every match and it's always the top-seeded players who's level of play is varying is the reason.

backhandsmash
Oct 8th, 2011, 04:32 PM
I dont think her serve is worse. Its a strategy her opponents have.
They know her serve is not strong, and they have a chance there. So they are very focused when Caroline serves.
This happens to good players like Dementieva, who are very tough to outrally.
The goal becomes to get breaks of serve.
Caroline has to be aware of that and stay very focused every point she serves

It's just that it's frustrating to see the serve failing her at critical moments, when at other times she can serve her way out of deep trouble like it's no big deal.

goldenlox
Oct 8th, 2011, 04:42 PM
Like everyone else, I'm not sure what is happening.
I dont care about Toronto/Cincy, because those are preps for the USO, and she had a good USO.

But Tokyo/Beijing/YEC is a big deal, you carry those points the next year for 10 months.

I'd like to see Caroline have a good YEC. End the year #1 and feeling good about 2012.

Burisleif
Oct 8th, 2011, 04:57 PM
I think its flattering that lower ranked players deem Caro the player to beat. I think it must get quite tedious for Caroline having to play through the same players to get the opportunity of playing her main rivals, only for them to not show up. Either way it's apparent that at the top you have to double your preparation effort being that your the number one scalp and combined with all the other attention must be more draining than being a relatively anonymous number 2+.

I wonder how annoying it must get that you do all the hard work to get to the top and yet the matches you really want to play (against the top Rivals and GM supposed best players) hapen so infrequently. It strikes me as a very frustrating prospect for anybody at the top of their particular field to be expected to perform at 100% perfect every game when the personal purpose for doing so has already been taken away.

The YEC will be the first concentrated gatherings of genuine rivals (with the obvious absence of Serena) for nearly a year, and it will be telling how Caro appears enthusiasm wise when she gets to Istanbul.

What ever happens, I seriously doubt for a second that Caroline isn't aware of her own game, and further best placed to understand the changes needed and what is possible in any particular time frame, so I can't find it in myself to be particularly critical, even if I'd rather she was faring better for personal reasons, especially considering it's herself that got her to where she is, and given the overflowing schedule on the WTA, the players don't really have any considerable off season time to do significant rebuilding to anything but very focused aspects of their game at the probable expense of others. Hopefully after the YEC she finds time to rest and relax, do some work with her technical coaches, assess yer in match focus, have Yonnex do some fine tuning, celebrate Jul, and regain some enthusiasm for next year, all in a short winter break.

As a fan all I can do is wish her well, have some fun, and bring some renewed enthusiasm to cheer her efforts next year what ever the results. :)

Good old Caroline, having to play well to make her fans happy, and play badly to make her rivals fans happy... Tough job balancing all that pleasure giving. :devil:

backhandsmash
Oct 8th, 2011, 05:06 PM
I think its flattering that lower ranked players deem Caro the player to beat. I think it must get quite tedious for Caroline having to play through the same players to get the opportunity of playing her main rivals, only for them to not show up. Either way it's apparent that at the top you have to double your preparation effort being that your the number one scalp and combined with all the other attention must be more draining than being a relatively anonymous number 2+.

I wonder how annoying it must get that you do all the hard work to get to the top and yet the matches you really want to play (against the top Rivals and GM supposed best players) hapen so infrequently. It strikes me as a very frustrating prospect for anybody at the top of their particular field to be expected to perform at 100% perfect every game when the personal purpose for doing so has already been taken away.

The YEC will be the first concentrated gatherings of genuine rivals (with the obvious absence of Serena) for nearly a year, and it will be telling how Caro appears enthusiasm wise when she gets to Istanbul.

What ever happens, I seriously doubt for a second that Caroline isn't aware of her own game, and further best placed to understand the changes needed and what is possible in any particular time frame, so I can't find it in myself to be particularly critical, even if I'd rather she was faring better for personal reasons, especially considering it's herself that got her to where she is, and given the overflowing schedule on the WTA, the players don't really have any considerable off season time to do significant rebuilding to anything but very focused aspects of their game at the probable expense of others. Hopefully after the YEC she finds time to rest and relax, do some work with her technical coaches, assess yer in match focus, have Yonnex do some fine tuning, celebrate Jul, and regain some enthusiasm for next year, all in a short winter break.

As a fan all I can do is wish her well, have some fun, and bring some renewed enthusiasm to cheer her efforts next year what ever the results. :)

Good old Caroline, having to play well to make her fans happy, and play badly to make her rivals fans happy... Tough job balancing all that pleasure giving. :devil:

That is why I can't wait for the YEC. Higher ranked players = More motivation and focus from the Woz.

I think she will do just fine in her next tournament.

DownInAHole
Oct 8th, 2011, 06:41 PM
I'd have thought the obvious conclusion is that lower ranked players who get a good result by beating a top player and then losing their next match is that lower ranked players often play really well one match - raising their game against a #1 or slam winner or player with a great record - but can't keep that level up in the next round. So often I've seen a lower ranked player win or nearly win and the commentators say she top 5 material or something like that. Well the reason they are not is that they don't play like that very often at all.

Yet you seem to have come to a very obscure conclusion that the low ranked players play the same level every match and it's always the top-seeded players who's level of play is varying is the reason.

Eh, I guess we just see things very differently. Of course every player will occasionally be upset but what I find frustrating about this season in particular is that the top ten players are being upset far too often. That's kind of what I meant when I said that I would like to see the WTA more like the ATP but not to the extreme where a handful of players are winning everything. I want to see the best players meet each other as often as possible. I don't find it very exciting to see random players upset the seeds only to lose their very next match.

If we use Caroline's most recent loss as an example Pennetta needed three sets to dispatch Cibulkova in the match before Caroline and was defeated rather soundly in the next match. Was she playing lights out tennis against Caroline? Or was it a case of the better player squandering their chances? Caroline easily could have and should have won that match, that's why I reached the conclusion that in that particular match the better player underperformed rather than the lower ranked player overperformed.

For me 2011 was a fairly uninspired season for the whole tour and I have to believe that 2012 will be much better. If we could have a slam winner not crash out early in the next slam and a number one ranked player that actually made a slam final I think that would be a good start.

marineblue
Oct 8th, 2011, 07:45 PM
In GM, when other top players lose a match in Beijing it doesn't matter, Beijing is not a worthy Mandatory anyway, it should just have been a regular 470 point Premier :shrug:

But when Caro loses a match it's suddenly a big deal... :rolleyes:


And if they win it means they are going to take over her ranking next season.:rolleyes:

They cannot bear she is no.1 and not their faves. Now there is even a new bangwagon damning Radwanska whose style is similar to Caro. Yet another proof against their moronic beliefs that offense is the only way. Therefore I wish Aggie the best of luck :devil:

marineblue
Oct 8th, 2011, 07:49 PM
That is probably true but I am quite nervous about how she will do against the other top players. Other than Schiavone (assuming she makes it) Caroline has not had much match play against the rest of them this year. Players like Li, Kvitova and Stosur appear to be slumping but Sam wasn't playing great heading into the YEC last year either and she still defeated Caroline fairly easily and all three of them could be tough matchups for Caroline.. I think that Azarenka is playing much better now than she was the last time Caroline played her in a completed match and Vera is always tricky. I would quite like to see another match against Sharapova, they played twice this year with each winning once.

I'm quite excited to see how Caroline does against the other top players but at the same time I am fairly nervous.

She will be fine. One reason why she has not played them is that they keep losing early on in tournaments. I donīt think she will be troubled much by anyone unless she gets injured.

backhandsmash
Oct 8th, 2011, 07:53 PM
And if they win it means they are going to take over her ranking next season.:rolleyes:

They cannot bear she is no.1 and not their faves. Now there is even a new bangwagon damning Radwanska whose style is similar to Caro. Yet another proof against their moronic beliefs that offense is the only way. Therefore I wish Aggie the best of luck :devil:

The hate-wagon hasn't completely started yet. Wait till Beijing win and YEC win. It will be full throttle from then.

Protoss
Oct 8th, 2011, 07:54 PM
That is why I can't wait for the YEC. Higher ranked players = More motivation and focus from the Woz.

I think she will do just fine in her next tournament.
The same great, motivated performance like against Serena at the US Open? :rolleyes: :p

I'd rather not of think of Caro being some of snob (for lack of a better word) towards non-slam tournaments. Toronto, Cincinnati, Tokyo, and Beijing are all big, allbeit non-slam tournaments and she was the defending champion at 3 of the tournaments. Plus Beijing is where she became #1 last year so she should at least be motivated, focused there. :shrug:

Protoss
Oct 8th, 2011, 08:00 PM
She will be fine. One reason why she has not played them is that they keep losing early on in tournaments. I donīt think she will be troubled much by anyone unless she gets injured.
Caro keeps losing early so she doesn't get to play them. :p

Caro could have played Sharapova at Wimbledon and Aga in Tokyo (plus Vika and Zvonareva if she kept on winning) or Beijing. :shrug:

marineblue
Oct 8th, 2011, 08:01 PM
I'd have thought the obvious conclusion is that lower ranked players who get a good result by beating a top player and then losing their next match is that lower ranked players often play really well one match - raising their game against a #1 or slam winner or player with a great record - but can't keep that level up in the next round. So often I've seen a lower ranked player win or nearly win and the commentators say she top 5 material or something like that. Well the reason they are not is that they don't play like that very often at all.

Yet you seem to have come to a very obscure conclusion that the low ranked players play the same level every match and it's always the top-seeded players who's level of play is varying is the reason.

Very well said.

marineblue
Oct 8th, 2011, 08:03 PM
Caro keeps losing early so she doesn't get to play them. :p

Caro could have played Sharapova at Wimbledon and Aga in Tokyo (plus Vika and Zvonareva if she kept on winning) or Beijing. :shrug:

Oh really? How far did Kvitova, Stosur and Li get in Beijing? Go on, tell us.

backhandsmash
Oct 8th, 2011, 08:09 PM
The same great, motivated performance like against Serena at the US Open? :rolleyes: :p

I'd rather not of think of Caro being some of snob (for lack of a better word) towards non-slam tournaments. Toronto, Cincinnati, Tokyo, and Beijing are all big, allbeit non-slam tournaments and she was the defending champion at 3 of the tournaments. Plus Beijing is where she became #1 last year so she should at least be motivated, focused there. :shrug:

I stand by what I wrote. Playing against top tier only will be a prime motivator for her. And snob has got nothing to do with it, I still say motivation will get her this one.

terjw
Oct 8th, 2011, 08:15 PM
Caro keeps losing early so she doesn't get to play them. :p

Caro could have played Sharapova at Wimbledon and Aga in Tokyo (plus Vika and Zvonareva if she kept on winning) or Beijing. :shrug:

Well - it's a bit of both ways actually. Caro not been making it lately and other top seeds not making it.

This playing against top players though is a bit irrelevant IMO. You play who you play and I think it's the last thing Caro worries herself about. I definitely do not think she is in any way frustrated by it. OK she sometimes gets an annoying question at interviews that she hasn't beaten such 'n such a player. But on the subject of who she plays - I'm sure she thinks exactly as she says. That she looks forward to a challenge of playing someone like a Kim or Serena. But if it's not a big name who is in a later round - then her opponent must be playing good to have got there.

As to the question of YEC and looking forward to her playing only the highest ranked players. Yes well I always look forward to Caro playing anywhere against anyone. And I'm really hoping she does well. But I'm not very optimistic on her chances based on how she's been doing lately.

DownInAHole
Oct 8th, 2011, 08:58 PM
Well - it's a bit of both ways actually. Caro not been making it lately and other top seeds not making it.

This playing against top players though is a bit irrelevant IMO. You play who you play and I think it's the last thing Caro worries herself about. I definitely do not think she is in any way frustrated by it. OK she sometimes gets an annoying question at interviews that she hasn't beaten such 'n such a player. But on the subject of who she plays - I'm sure she thinks exactly as she says. That she looks forward to a challenge of playing someone like a Kim or Serena. But if it's not a big name who is in a later round - then her opponent must be playing good to have got there.

As to the question of YEC and looking forward to her playing only the highest ranked players. Yes well I always look forward to Caro playing anywhere against anyone. And I'm really hoping she does well. But I'm not very optimistic on her chances based on how she's been doing lately.

I think up until March/April Caroline was doing her part by regularly making quarters/semis/finals but since then she has not been doing as well at the premier 5's, mandatories and slams which are the events that all of the top players compete in.

Don't you see any value in Caroline competing against the very best players? One of the reasons I want to see her play them much more often is because I think it will push her to be a better player. Admittedly, that is possibly less of a motivation for her with the number one ranking but I still think her game would benefit from playing the better players much more often.

Protoss
Oct 8th, 2011, 09:17 PM
Oh really? How far did Kvitova, Stosur and Li get in Beijing? Go on, tell us.
Kvitova and Li lost their 1st match while Stosur lost her 2nd match. :shrug:

Sigh. My point was that Caro not playing top players can't just be blamed on them losing early, Caro's had her part in that as well. I remember their being a lot of hype about the potential Caro/Sharapova match at Wimbledon but that match didn't happen. :shrug:

terjw
Oct 8th, 2011, 09:31 PM
I think up until March/April Caroline was doing her part by regularly making quarters/semis/finals but since then she has not been doing as well at the premier 5's, mandatories and slams which are the events that all of the top players compete in.

Don't you see any value in Caroline competing against the very best players? One of the reasons I want to see her play them much more often is because I think it will push her to be a better player. Admittedly, that is possibly less of a motivation for her with the number one ranking but I still think her game would benefit from playing the better players much more often.

Actually yes I do agree. But there was a post Burisleif wrote that started this. And I agreed with all of it except the bit about Caro must be frustrated with not playing top players. In theory - yes playing against top players should make her a better player. But I'm not sure her match against Serena at the USO did anything for her. But yes. The YEC is a good thing that she'll be playing against top 10 players.

DownInAHole
Oct 8th, 2011, 10:08 PM
Actually yes I do agree. But there was a post Burisleif wrote that started this. And I agreed with all of it except the bit about Caro must be frustrated with not playing top players. In theory - yes playing against top players should make her a better player. But I'm not sure her match against Serena at the USO did anything for her. But yes. The YEC is a good thing that she'll be playing against top 10 players.

I think the match against Serena may have meant more if it had happened when Caroline was on a hot streak. If she had been having great success and was suddenly derailed by Serena then maybe she would have learned something more from it but I think most of us were happily surprised that Caroline managed to make the semis and actually winning that match was probably not something many of us expected. I was hoping that maybe in Tokyo or Beijing that Caroline would get another chance to play her. Hopefully they will meet in 2012 when they are both playing their best. I'm not sure if Caroline can beat her but I hope she gets many chances to try before Serena retires.

Burisleif
Oct 9th, 2011, 12:34 AM
Kvitova and Li lost their 1st match while Stosur lost her 2nd match. :shrug:

Sigh. My point was that Caro not playing top players can't just be blamed on them losing early, Caro's had her part in that as well. I remember their being a lot of hype about the potential Caro/Sharapova match at Wimbledon but that match didn't happen. :shrug:

My point was not why or how it happened... the fact is it has and very frequently... And if it has that can't be motivating.

A situation of top players rarely meeting has nothing to to with social class structure.

Finally, just because a player hits a ball wide at twice the kinetic input of another player does not make them a better player. It's not how you hit it, but what you hit, when, and why, that makes a great player.

Burisleif
Oct 9th, 2011, 12:37 AM
Actually yes I do agree. But there was a post Burisleif wrote that started this. And I agreed with all of it except the bit about Caro must be frustrated with not playing top players. In theory - yes playing against top players should make her a better player. But I'm not sure her match against Serena at the USO did anything for her. But yes. The YEC is a good thing that she'll be playing against top 10 players.

What good it did is I agree debatable, but that it doesn't happen enough must be frustrating... If the top ten met week in week out it can only improve their game or at the very least provide a measure of their level? the meeting vs Serena at the least gave Caro a measure of what needs to be done?

QuietPlease
Oct 9th, 2011, 01:44 AM
She will be fine. One reason why she has not played them is that they keep losing early on in tournaments. I donīt think she will be troubled much by anyone unless she gets injured.


Bold words, but I tend to agree.
I think Caro's chances are at least 50/50 against everybody at the YEC. Well perhaps apart from Stosur. I know she's lost a couple of times to Kirilenko lately, but she's still playing quite well and usually gives Caro a hard time. So if I could pick one player to be in the opposite group it would be Stosur.

DownInAHole
Oct 9th, 2011, 02:04 AM
If I could pick Caroline's group it would be Li, Kvitova and Stosur. Caroline was unable to win a slam this year but it would be great if she went 3-0 against the players that did.

QuietPlease
Oct 9th, 2011, 02:10 AM
If I could pick Caroline's group it would be Li, Kvitova and Stosur. Caroline was unable to win a slam this year but it would be great if she went 3-0 against the players that did.

:lol:
Good point!

QuietPlease
Oct 9th, 2011, 02:22 AM
Projected ranking after Istanbul:


Name 0-3RR 1-2RR 2-1RR 3-0RR RU1RR RU2RR RU3RR W1RR W2RR W3RR

Caro Wozniacki 7,325 7,485 7,645 7,805 7,845 8,005 8,165 8,295 8,455 8,615
Maria Sharapova 6,580 6,740 6,900 7,060 7,100 7,260 7,420 7,550 7,710 7,870




The list does not take injuries/illness into account. Each lost RR match = 70 points, but if you don't play you get 0 points.

If Caroline loses 3 RR matches, Maria needs to be RU with 3 RR wins or become champion.
If Caroline wins 1 RR match and loses 2, Maria needs to be champion.
If Caroline is RU with 2 RR wins she is safe.

Petra still has a mathmatical chance if she gains points before Istanbul. If she does I'll add her to the list above.

I was just thinking:
The true optimist would say Caroline could have a 2,000 point lead by the of the year! :cool:

Burisleif
Oct 9th, 2011, 02:24 AM
Caroline could have a 2000 point lead by the end of the year, :)

QuietPlease
Oct 9th, 2011, 02:42 AM
Burisleif = a true optimist ;)

comeonkim
Oct 9th, 2011, 11:33 PM
how many points will the winner of YEC take ? or does it change depending on number wins on the group stage ?

i knew that winner of YEC will take 1500 points. but may it be changed depending on number of wins on group stages ?
A champion with 3 wins 0 loss and a Champion with 2 wins 1 loss take different ranking points ?

Burisleif
Oct 9th, 2011, 11:56 PM
how many points will the winner of YEC take ? or does it change depending on number wins on the group stage ?

i knew that winner of YEC will take 1500 points. but may it be changed depending on number of wins on group stages ?
A champion with 3 wins 0 losses and a Champion with 2 wins 1 loss take different ranking points ?

Yes it depends on the Round Robin group stage.

Winner with 1 RR wins 1180 pts
Winner with 2 RR wins 1340 pts
Winner with 3 RR wins 1500 pts

There is a PDF press kitt with the points and cash breakdown HERE (http://www.wtachampionships.com/SEWTATour-Archive/Archive/TournamentStats/2011/WTAChamps_PrizeMoney_Points.pdf)

goldenlox
Oct 10th, 2011, 12:49 AM
Caroline did well at the 2010 YEC, then 2011 AO, and all spring.
So a good YEC will definately help her keep #1 as she defends points early in 2012.

This already is a very long run at #1. Another year like this & at 22 she will be among true all time greats in weeks at #1.

marineblue
Oct 10th, 2011, 12:23 PM
Well - it's a bit of both ways actually. Caro not been making it lately and other top seeds not making it.

This playing against top players though is a bit irrelevant IMO. You play who you play and I think it's the last thing Caro worries herself about. I definitely do not think she is in any way frustrated by it. OK she sometimes gets an annoying question at interviews that she hasn't beaten such 'n such a player. But on the subject of who she plays - I'm sure she thinks exactly as she says. That she looks forward to a challenge of playing someone like a Kim or Serena. But if it's not a big name who is in a later round - then her opponent must be playing good to have got there.

As to the question of YEC and looking forward to her playing only the highest ranked players. Yes well I always look forward to Caro playing anywhere against anyone. And I'm really hoping she does well. But I'm not very optimistic on her chances based on how she's been doing lately.

Exactly. High rank does not guarantee the best performance, I think we've seen it many times. Lower ranked players sometimes play better than top players. Pointing at the rank of the opponent is very superficial, how they played is what matters.

marineblue
Oct 10th, 2011, 12:26 PM
Bold words, but I tend to agree.
I think Caro's chances are at least 50/50 against everybody at the YEC. Well perhaps apart from Stosur. I know she's lost a couple of times to Kirilenko lately, but she's still playing quite well and usually gives Caro a hard time. So if I could pick one player to be in the opposite group it would be Stosur.

Yeah, Stosur beat her last year,at YEC so she can be a potential threat. I don't think I am that bold, just looking at others' results :)

goldenlox
Oct 10th, 2011, 12:53 PM
Caroline might be feeling some pressure now.
She's been #1 a full year, but now its for the YE ranking, and knowing that she has to close the door might be putting too much pressure on her. Thats just a guess.

Playing with pressure means you have something to play for.
Thats part of being a star in the sport. You're playing important matches

Protoss
Oct 16th, 2011, 02:56 PM
I guess the tennis gods think Caro should have to actually perform up to par to finish the year at #1 as Kvitova wins Linz after surviving against Jankovic in the semis (down a set and 3-1 plus 4-3 2nd set (break).

Kvitova is undefeated this year indoors and the YEC is indoors.

marineblue
Oct 16th, 2011, 03:30 PM
@Protoss
You know what, why don't you go and gloat about it in her forum? This one is Caroline's. And mind you, YEC has a bit tougher draw then Linz...

Protoss
Oct 16th, 2011, 03:43 PM
@Protoss
You know what, why don't you go and gloat about it in her forum? This one is Caroline's. And mind you, YEC has a bit tougher draw then Linz...
I'm not gloating. I don't like Kvitova for crying out loud. That doesn't change the fact that she's undefeated indoors this year.

She beat Clijsters earlier this year in the in the Paris indoors final. :shrug:

goldenlox
Oct 16th, 2011, 03:49 PM
It looks like a few of the YEC players will be in good form coming in.
This is the 5th biggest tournament of the year.
Not a major, but it determines Year End #1 and Player of the Year

marineblue
Oct 16th, 2011, 03:52 PM
I'm not gloating. I don't like Kvitova for crying out loud. That doesn't change the fact that she's undefeated indoors this year.

She beat Clijsters earlier this year in the in the Paris indoors final. :shrug:

She might be undefeated but that doesn't mean she is the favourite. The surface can help her, but she will struggle with anyone she draws. Her opponents in YEC are not exactly push-overs like the ones she beat in Linz. She beat Clijsters in Paris, Arantza Rus beat Clijsters at Roland Garros. Does that make Rus a better player?

QuietPlease
Oct 16th, 2011, 08:42 PM
Updated after Linz:

Caro, Maria & Petra's projected ranking after Istanbul:


Name 0-3RR 1-2RR 2-1RR 3-0RR RU1RR RU2RR RU3RR W1RR W2RR W3RR

Caro Wozniacki 7,325 7,485 7,645 7,805 7,845 8,005 8,165 8,295 8,455 8,615
Maria Sharapova 6,580 6,740 6,900 7,060 7,100 7,260 7,420 7,550 7,710 7,870
Petra Kvitova 6,080 6,240 6,400 6,560 6,600 6,760 6,920 7,050 7,210 7,370




The list does not take injuries/illness into account. Each lost RR match = 70 points, but if you don't play you get 0 points.

If Caroline loses 3 RR matches, Maria needs to be RU with 3 RR wins or become champion & Petra needs to be undefeated champion.
If Caroline wins 1 RR match and loses 2, Maria needs to be champion (Petra has no chance).
If Caroline is RU with 2 RR wins she is safe.


I now included Petra in the list as she has a small chance after winning Linz.

goldenlox
Oct 16th, 2011, 10:11 PM
So Caroline wins 2 matches & she is YE #1 no matter who wins the YEC?
If Caroline can win this title, she will have a big lead again, and arguably her biggest title so far

terjw
Oct 16th, 2011, 11:26 PM
So Caroline wins 2 matches & she is YE #1 no matter who wins the YEC?
If Caroline can win this title, she will have a big lead again, and arguably her biggest title so far

She has to be RU with two RR wins to be safe according to QuietPlease. This is certainly far from over and Caro will need to play well to get y/e #1.

goldenlox
Oct 17th, 2011, 01:11 AM
So if Caroline wins one match, Maria has to win the YEC, Petra is out?
There is a chance Maria is in form, so this should be interesting.

Michael*
Oct 17th, 2011, 11:06 AM
She might be undefeated but that doesn't mean she is the favourite. The surface can help her, but she will struggle with anyone she draws. Her opponents in YEC are not exactly push-overs like the ones she beat in Linz. She beat Clijsters in Paris, Arantza Rus beat Clijsters at Roland Garros. Does that make Rus a better player?

Slow down sister, you have taken what this poster has said totally out of context!

1. Kim was playing a million times better in February than what she was in May
2. And yes I am pretty sure Petra is the favorite for the YEC, doesn't mean she will win though!
3. Yes she will struggle with opponents, however I think winning Linz, getting some confidence means she will probably struggle less than everyone else!

Stop getting so defensive :lol:

terjw
Oct 17th, 2011, 10:47 PM
Slow down sister, you have taken what this poster has said totally out of context!

1. Kim was playing a million times better in February than what she was in May
2. And yes I am pretty sure Petra is the favorite for the YEC, doesn't mean she will win though!
3. Yes she will struggle with opponents, however I think winning Linz, getting some confidence means she will probably struggle less than everyone else!

Stop getting so defensive :lol:

No. Sharapova is still the favourite. Kvitova moves up to 2nd favourite.

4-1: Maria Sharapova
9-2: Petra Kvitova
5-1: Caroline WozniackiSource - http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/womens-tour/wta-championships-istanbul

goldenlox
Oct 17th, 2011, 11:54 PM
On the subject of odds, has there been a match all year that Caroline was not the betting favorite, besides the Serena SF in NY?

Burisleif
Oct 18th, 2011, 12:01 AM
On the subject of odds, has there been a match all year that Caroline was not the betting favorite, besides the Serena SF in NY?

Maria is always the favourite at the bookies... even for NY :lol:

Crockett
Oct 18th, 2011, 10:54 AM
Source - http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/womens-tour/wta-championships-istanbul
Everyone would be at 7/1 (disregarding the vigorish) if the winner were determined by drawing lots. Agnieszka Radwanska has those odds, and only Sam Stosur and Li Na are played at longer odds. Li Na is the clear underdog at 14/1.