i'm thinking that maria sharapova will make top 50 next year if she plays all the wta tournies she is allowed. i find it hard to believe that she could get higher than about #40 due to the limited amount of tournaments she can play but you never know, maybe she'll get into the top 20 (not likely but i hope she does).
Nov 3rd, 2002, 08:54 PM
I'd say that next year she could get to about 60-70!!
Nov 3rd, 2002, 09:43 PM
You must be so excited to predict Maria's future in the ranking! Well, don't look too far ahead where she will be. I want to follow her one tournament at a time and eventually the ranking will come. Anything is possible, she could end up with an injury like Lina K. I would be totally desvasted if that happens.
If nothing happens, she will be in top 100 easily in 2003, more likely 51-100. If she plays well in all WTA tournaments in 2003, she would be in top 50, more likely 40-50 at the end of 2003.
If you look at Dokic's career, she was #341 at the end of 1998 at age 15 (same age as Maria's age right now, she is #231 this week :) ) and then Dokic zoomed up to #43 at the end of 1999 at age 16. It would be interesting how far Maria go up in the ranking at the end of 2003 at age 16. Their birthdays are in the same month April.
As well as for Dinara, she was #391 at age 15 and now #68 at age 16. I expect Maria to follow the same path as Dokic and Safina.
Nov 3rd, 2002, 09:48 PM
Well, let's see how much the 'limited' number of tournaments she can play next year really limits her. She's be 16 on April 19, so she can play 10 tournaments. Serena currently has 13 tournaments. So we remove Serena's lowest three results, and we get 5439 ranking points. So that's the realistic upper limit of how many points Maria can get next year, (assuming she's as good as advertised). If she could only play 8 tournaments, the limit would be 5054.
So the REAL limit imposed on her is enough points to make it to #2 in the world. I'm not sure where she'll wind up, but the AER won't be the reason why. I'd guess maybe about #110.
Nov 3rd, 2002, 09:53 PM
She'll be ranked anywhere between 60 and 130.
Nov 3rd, 2002, 09:54 PM
I wouldn't wish anything as bad to anyone what happened to Lina this yr :sad:
Just take it nice and slowly and she'll get there :)
Lina at 15 was #163 (99), at 16(#133) and at 17(#34)
this yr :sad: all ruined by career threatening injury. :sad:
Nov 3rd, 2002, 09:55 PM
I'd expect she'll break the top 100
Nov 3rd, 2002, 09:58 PM
why base maria on what serena does volcana? she isn't hyped all that much compared to others. she's making a steady improvement and i'm not expecting her to reach the top ten next year and neither are her other fans. realistically she won't be in all of the tier 1 and 2 tournaments so she won't be able to get as many points as you say she can plus she has to get used to the level of play which is a lot higher than at the itf level.
maria and serena are at different points in their careers and it is silly to compare them. where was serena at 15 and 16? certainly not at the level she is today.
Nov 3rd, 2002, 09:59 PM
Volcana lives in cloud cuckoo land most of the year ;)
Nov 3rd, 2002, 10:04 PM
LOL @ Eggy! Good one!
Yes, Lina K, that sucks! She would be been ranked higher today than last year, let's pray that she can come back where she was! :)
Nov 3rd, 2002, 10:40 PM
I am just looking for Maria to improve every year til she wins a Slam and becomes World # 1 !!!
Nov 3rd, 2002, 11:55 PM
Gowza - Your original analysis is a cop out. You already blaming her ranking next year on some artificial limit on how many tournaments she plays, rather than her own ability. Maria has the opportunity to play in enough tournaments to make the top ten. Her eventual ranking will be a reflection of her ability. What silly is pretending the AER is somehow holding her back.
What was Serena at 16? Serena turned 16 26 Sep 1997. She play TWO tournaments in 1997. (And beat Monica Seles and Mary Pierce in her second tournament). In 1998, she play 11. Know what she ended 1997 ranked with those TWO tournaments? #99.
TWO tournaments. Rank #99.
Maria may be the next-great-player. Who knows? But the only thing holding her back (or not) is her own ability, intelligence and dedication. She has enough tournaments to play.
Nov 4th, 2002, 04:18 PM
Serena Williams in a unique case, and we will probably not see a player like her again.
Some players need matchplay and I think that is what Maria needs, she will come through when she is ready and not before, Maria will have lots of ups and down next year, and see her finishing around #50 in the rankings at the end of the year.
And btw Serena played 5 tournaments in 97 (all counted towards her ranking.
Indian Wells Mar 3 1997
Qual 1 A Dechaume-Balleret - S Williams-WC 6-4 6-0
Los Angeles Aug 4 1997
Qual 1 S Williams-WC - A Basica-WC 6-1 6-4
Qual 2 S Williams-WC - T Tanasugarn(3) 3-6
Qual 3 M Serna(6) - S Williams-WC 7-66 4-6 6-3
Zurich Oct 13 1997
Qual 1 S Williams-WC - G Pizzichini 6-2 6-4
Qual 2 D van Roost(2) - S Williams-WC 6-2 6-4
Moscow Oct 27 1997
1 K Po - S Williams-Q 6-3 7-66
Chicago Nov 3 1997
1 S Williams-WC - E Likhovtseva 6-3 7-5
2 S Williams-WC - M Pierce(5) 6-3 7-63
QF S Williams-WC - M Seles(2) 4-6 6-1 6-1
SF L Davenport(3) - S Williams-WC 6-4 6-4
Nov 4th, 2002, 04:39 PM
Maria can play 10 tournaments plus the grand slams (and the masters) if she qualifies through her ranking (which it seems as if she will.)
So she could play 14-15 tournaments next year.