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View Full Version : When will Maria's bad luck end?


xan
Jun 29th, 2010, 02:28 PM
So. Venus just lost, playing awful tennis.

I'm the first to say that Maria has had faults in her game and performance of late.

However, injuries aside, she has also had considerable runs of bad luck at slams. She almost always ends up on the hard side of the draws - and sometimes in the most ridiculously unbalanced and tough quarters. Most of the times she has lost in the semis of slams - it has been to the eventual winner, showing that her side of the draw was toughest. Unlike Kuznetsova (USO 2004), Mauresmo (AO 2006), Wozniaki (USO 2009), Schiavone (RG 2010), and others, Maria NEVER gets a cakewalk draw to a slam final - with players defaulting or falling to pieces in front of her.

We all know what happened with the draws at AO 2008, and 2010 RG and Wimbledon - where Maria landed up with the worst possible draw. Even the stupid scheduling by RG of the Justine match meant that Maria's winning momentum was broken and Justine was able to come back.

What really annoyed me was to just watch Venus collapse to Pironkova. When Maria met Venus in 2005 and 2007, it was unbeatable, "Terminator" Venus, endlessly hitting huge serves, and striking unreturnable winners, painting the lines from all over the court. In both years Serena was badly off form, so Maria didn't get her. This time she gets Serena - and guess what, Serena is the one in awesome form, hitting 10 aces a set, and never faltering - so even though Maria plays supreme tennis, she still loses early, taking home no points. And what about Venus? She's unable to buy an ace, double-faulting all over the place and not able to hit a ball in court. Maria would have walked that match! So how come Maria never gets 2005 Serena - or 2010 Venus?

They say you need good luck to win Grand Slams. When is Maria going to get some?

xan
Jun 29th, 2010, 03:03 PM
Update. With Clijsters loss, the whole draw seems to have fallen apart - except of course for Maria's eighth. :fiery:

Mrs. Dimitrova
Jun 29th, 2010, 03:40 PM
Sounds stupid but I think it's not luck anymore. Somehow it could be intentional. :o :lol:

After that amazingly horrible draw in FO, and almost got the 17th seed but got 16th thanks to Elena, I predicted she would get a Williams. It was a 2/4 chance, if it was Venus she could have more chance than Serena but of course she had to get Serena. Just... crazy.

Break My Rapture
Jun 29th, 2010, 03:56 PM
Well, I guess she'll get Kim at the US Open. :drool:

Adal
Jun 29th, 2010, 04:52 PM
She has been getting cakewalk draws a lot in 2005-2007 so I guess that's just karma.

pokey camp
Jun 29th, 2010, 05:03 PM
Oh it's a whinging thread. I love these. :hearts:

However, injuries aside, she has also had considerable runs of bad luck at slams. She almost always ends up on the hard side of the draws - and sometimes in the most ridiculously unbalanced and tough quarters. Most of the times she has lost in the semis of slams - it has been to the eventual winner, showing that her side of the draw was toughest. Unlike Kuznetsova (USO 2004), Mauresmo (AO 2006), Wozniaki (USO 2009), Schiavone (RG 2010), and others, Maria NEVER gets a cakewalk draw to a slam final - with players defaulting or falling to pieces in front of her.

The USO 2007, 2009 draws were classic catwalks. (:secret: Re USO 2009: Maria was the number one reason Caro had such an easy road to the final so you can't list that one.)

Her RG 2007, AO 2007 and RG 2008 draws weren’t half bad either. She didn't execute so the draw gods decided to punish her. Obviously. :shrug:

I will say she's never gotten a catwalk at Wimbledon. That would be nice...

perseus2006
Jun 29th, 2010, 05:06 PM
I think on Wed at 9:30 PM.

There will be joy and jubilation then.

istase2000
Jun 29th, 2010, 05:18 PM
Oh it's a whinging thread. I love these. :hearts:


The USO 2007, 2009 draws were classic catwalks. (:secret: Re USO 2009: Maria was the number one reason Caro had such an easy road to the final so you can't list that one.)

Her RG 2007, AO 2007 and RG 2008 draws weren’t half bad either. She didn't execute so the draw gods decided to punish her. Obviously. :shrug:

I will say she's never gotten a catwalk at Wimbledon. That would be nice...

RG09 wasn't bad either. I agree with you, she's had a lot of good draws. But I mean AO10 was a decent draw and she goes out first round. Even though she had tough draws the last 2 slams, but she went out on matches she could've won if she played some big points better. But you know maria is hopefully improving on that department and will get into the groove of beating top players soon.

If she does well in the US hardcourt season, what can she get her ranking up to?

xan
Jun 29th, 2010, 08:52 PM
Oh it's a whinging thread. I love these. :hearts:


The USO 2007, 2009 draws were classic catwalks. (:secret: Re USO 2009: Maria was the number one reason Caro had such an easy road to the final so you can't list that one.)

Her RG 2007, AO 2007 and RG 2008 draws weren’t half bad either. She didn't execute so the draw gods decided to punish her. Obviously. :shrug:

I will say she's never gotten a catwalk at Wimbledon. That would be nice...
You've helped prove my point.

Most of the 23 odd Slam draws she's been in since her Wimbledon triumph have been significantly tougher than average. She's nearly always been on the "hard" side of these draws. The accusation from some people on GM that Maria gets cakewalk draws is destroyed by the facts. I've grown sick of the number of slams in which Maria ends up being involved in the stand-out, "interesting", early-round match, in which she meets some on-form top player at a stage when everyone else is playing scrubs.


Maria did get some reasonable draws in 2007, except for Wimbledon, where she got Terminator Venus in the 4th Round. And she took advantage of the Australian one, reaching the final, despite having been forced to play for nearly three hours in highly dangerous 120 degree heat in her first round match - when everyone else had been prevented from starting. She beat Camille Pin, 6-3 4-6 9-7 in a match that would have finished many players. I think that may explain her blowout to Serena in the final. Apart from these, she's only really had two easy draws she's blown - US Open 2009 and 2007. While AO 2010 was a good draw on paper, she ran into her ex-doubles partner in the first round - unexpectedly playing top 10 tennis after a lengthy slump.

At RG. Her quarter had Henin as her low seed, Stosur in 4th Round and Serena (again) in the Qtrs. Wimbledon 2007, Venus was her 4th round. Wimbledon 2009 - after Dulko, Maria had 3rd round, Azarenka, 4th Round Petrova and then Serena in her quarter. For comparison, Dementieva had Kulikova, Vesnina and Schiavone in her same-round matches.

The problem with these draws is that even when her play is good, she's not getting the wins or the ranking points she needs to move on. Most of the current Wimbledon survivors would represent very little threat to Maria, yet they're in the semis and quarters, and Maria is on her way to Heathrow. That's the luck of draws (and seeding committees) - and it is too rarely working out in Maria's favour. Playing Serena in the Final or semi brings a whole lot more ranking points than the "interesting" 3rd and 4th round match-ups she seems to get.

If Maria is playing badly and loses, that's the way it goes. Play better. But she's been playing well, and yet consistently not rewarded for this because of contrary draws. That''s why I say her luck is long overdue for an improvement.

pokey camp
Jun 29th, 2010, 10:23 PM
:scratch: I’m only saying she’s been given her fair share of catwalks ;) and she’s helped create some catwalks for others. (See Wozniacki, Caro 2009 USO.) She didn’t capitalize, sometimes for legitimate reasons... other times because of poor execution. So what can you really say?

The last two draws: Within this last slam cycle she’s had two relatively easy draws in a row (USO and AO) followed by two absolute crap draws in a row (RG and Wimbledon). It's balanced out so I don’t see what there is to complain about. She should’ve taken advantage of those two good draws when she had them. If she had, then the subsequent crap draws might not have happened. She wouldn’t be meeting top players (excluding Justine) in 3rd and 4th rounds now because she’d already be well inside the top 10. :shrug:

Her draws historically: ITA her draws overall haven’t been "easy." It’s unfortunate that her draws during the 2005 and 2006 seasons never once collapsed. Especially 2006... It's a damn shame she only won one slam that year. But draws didn’t collapse with the same frequency back then. Despite all of the “Maria got another catwalk!1! Larry Scott Needs Fired!!” threads in GM, there just weren’t as many true cakewalks back then because the top players were much more consistent. (I miss those threads btw... :sad:)

Anyway, the draws are not the problem. The problem is during the years she played consistently well, the tour itself was also very consistent. Draws didn't collapse. At least not like this. And during the years when the tour has been inconsistent and draws have collapsed, she's been either injured (USO 2007, RG 2007, RG 2008) or off form (USO 2009, AO 2010). If there's any bad luck. That's it.

gc-spurs
Jun 30th, 2010, 12:02 AM
I say cakewalk.
But the draws have been shite. It sucks that in one night, one of Maria/Serena would be out, and one of Henin/Clijsters would be out- all in the 4th round. Onis is on Sharpie and JuJu to get their rankings up because they're rather extraordinary 16/17 seeds. And in the past month, this hasn't been possible because of the draws.

Marilyn Monheaux
Oct 5th, 2010, 09:44 AM
This isn't bad luck. It's bad play.:shrug:

domon17th
Oct 5th, 2010, 09:53 AM
Well, I thought the rule is that for Maria to win a slam, she needs a draw from hell?