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2nd_serve
Apr 7th, 2010, 06:52 AM
Rundown to the final 16

The end of the season is becoming concentrated with important mathces. Here is my view of the important matches that can change the top 16 seeds and regional locations. For another day is the issue of the top 16 teams that don't have challenging matches in their final weeks.

April 7
North Carolina v. Duke 4 3


April 9
Baylor v. Northwestern 4 3
South Carolina v. Georgia 3 4
Notre Dame v. South Florida 7 0
Stanford v. Washington 4 3
USC v. ASU 5 2

April 10
North Carolina v. Clemson 4 3. here (http://clemsontigers.cstv.com/livestats/w-tennis/Scoreboard.html)
Duke v. Georgia Tech. 12 pm (3 3 last match 6 6 in third set tiebreaker) current score here (http://ramblinwreck.cstv.com/livestats/w-tennis/xlive.htm)
UCLA v. ASU 12 pm PT (4 2, #4 still on court ) current score here (http://www.uclabruins.com/livestats/tennis/xlive.htm)
California v. Washington 12 pm PT (4 1, #1 & #2 on court in 3rd set ) current score here (http://www.gohuskies.com/sports/w-tennis/wash-live-stats.html)


April 11
Florida v. Georgia (florida 5 Georia 0, Florida rolling) live score here. (http://www.georgiadogs.com/fls/8800/ncaa_tennis_live/Scoreboard.html) 1 pm ET
Duke v. Clemson (3 3, with final match #2 in third set Clemson up 3 0). live score here (http://clemsontigers.cstv.com/livestats/w-tennis/Scoreboard.html?SPSID=22607&SPID=1840&DB_OEM_ID=4200). )12 pm ET
South Carolina v. Tennessee (SC 3 Tenn 4 . live score here (http://www.utladyvols.com/livestats/w-tennis/xlive.htm) 1 pm
Georgia Tech v. UNC 2 5 live score here (http://ramblinwreck.cstv.com/livestats/w-tennis/xlive.htm)

April 16
UCLA v. USC live scoring HERE (http://www.uclabruins.com/livestats/tennis/xlive.htm)12 pm PT

April 17
Florida v. North Carolina
Stanford v. California
FSU v. Duke 1 pm
Georgia v. Tennessee
South Carolina v. Florida

April 18
Florida v. Duke
UNC v. FSU 1 pm.

(i don't think I'm the expert, so speak up with other opinions and it will be more fun!!!

fantic
Apr 7th, 2010, 07:37 PM
I'm not an expert either :lol: just for fun;

last season's ranking on the similar date;

1
Northwestern University
88.03
1
2
Univ. of Georgia
76.20
2
3
Baylor University
72.84
4
4
Univ. of Notre Dame
70.51
3
5
Duke University
69.75
9
6
Univ. of Miami (Florida)
68.31
5
7
Georgia Tech
67.47
6
8
California
66.21
8
9
Univ. of Southern California
62.99
7
10
Stanford
56.12
10
11
UCLA
56.01
12
12
Clemson University
55.29
11
13
University of Tennessee
51.04
13
14
Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville
44.54
15
15
Fresno State
44.27
14
16
Louisiana State University
40.97
24
17
Vanderbilt University
40.40
19
18
Florida State University
40.02
17
19
North Carolina
39.17
18
20
University of Michigan
37.32
23
21
University of Florida
37.06
16

UF managed to jump to 15 at the end of April. So anything can happen.

Now I don't think top 8? teams need to worry about that much. But PAC-10 teams, for example..

8. UCLA, 11. STAN 12. CAL 17. USC 21. ASU 25. UW

Pretty tight.

Even those 3 top teams canNOT afford to lose a single match..which is why UW & ASU matches are so

important..I don't think that UW can upset STAN & CAL, IMHO, but who knows..

and of course CAL; STAN , USC ; UCLA would matter MOST.

I thought the top teams last year would suffer due to graduations, but actually

the ranking didn't change much.

Credit to those teams..Baylor & UF doing well was to be expected (no losses

from last year)...and ND, despite the loss of Kelcy Tefft still #6..amazing..

The biggest change is of course UNC and MICH, and to the lesser extent FSU,

at the expense of GT, USC, ARK, LSU, Fresno St..but we'll see.

gouci
Apr 8th, 2010, 12:57 AM
Here is my view of the important matches that can change the top 16 seeds and regional locations.
A big piece of the puzzle that's been left out are the potential matches teams will play in their conference tournaments.

gouci
Apr 8th, 2010, 02:28 AM
I'll do an multi-part analysis.

1. Baylor
best wins = #2 UNC, #6 ND, #8 UCLA, #10 Miami, #13 FSU, #17 USC twice

2. North Carolina
#1 Baylor, #5 NW, #6 ND, #7 Duke twice

3. Michigan
#1 Baylor, #5 NW, #9 Clemson, #10 Miami

4. Florida
#2 UNC, #3 Michigan, #7 Duke, #13 FSU

5. Northwestern
#2 UNC, #4 FL, #12 Cal, #13 FSU

6. Notre Dame
#3 Michigan, #5 NW, #16 TN, #20 GT

7. Duke
#3 Michigan, #5 NW, #6 ND, #17 USC

8. UCLA
#4 FL, #10 Miami, #11 Stanford, #12 Cal

9. Clemson
#13 FSU, #14 Georgia, #15 SC, #18 Mississippi

10. Miami
#9 Clemson, #13 FSU, #14 GA, #20 GT

11. Stanford - 55.35 pts.
#8 UCLA, #12 Cal, #21 ASU, #27 Texas

12. Cal - 51.81 pts.
#8 UCLA, #17 USC twice, #20 GT, #21 ASU


So looking at their best 4 wins and their computer points the 12 teams above are LOCKS to host an NCAA regional. :worship:

Since these teams are already locks no need for me to look at their remaining schedule.

fantic
Apr 8th, 2010, 03:36 AM
reah, right, ranking points..

12 51.81 California 11
13 44.77 Florida State University 17
14 40.09 University of Georgia 13
15 39.64 University of South Carolina 19
16 37.70 University of Tennessee 14
17 35.29 University of Southern California 18
18 35.28 University of Mississippi 35
19 34.59 University of South Florida 15
20 34.04 Georgia Tech 20
21 32.66 Arizona State University 16
22 32.01 Univ. of Iowa 26

it's scary :lol:

April 9

South Carolina v. Georgia
Notre Dame v. South Florida 3 pm ET

April 10

Duke v. Georgia Tech. 12 pm
UCLA v. ASU 12 pm PT

April 11
Florida v. Georgia 1 pm ET
South Carolina v. Tennessee 1 pm

April 16
UCLA v. USC 12 pm PT

April 17

FSU v. Duke 1 pm
Georgia v. Tennessee
South Carolina v. Florida

April 18

UNC v. FSU 1 pm.

For Georgia and USC, a win against Florida would be tremendous..

Hell, Tennessee schedule; remaining matches against Florida, USC, UGA..

is Pluskota injured? why is she not playing..(the same to Petukhova of FSU)

johnnytennis
Apr 8th, 2010, 03:48 AM
I'll do an multi-part analysis.

1. Baylor
best wins = #2 UNC, #6 ND, #8 UCLA, #10 Miami, #13 FSU, #17 USC twice

2. North Carolina
#1 Baylor, #5 NW, #6 ND, #7 Duke twice

3. Michigan
#1 Baylor, #5 NW, #9 Clemson, #10 Miami

4. Florida
#2 UNC, #3 Michigan, #7 Duke, #13 FSU

5. Northwestern
#2 UNC, #4 FL, #12 Cal, #13 FSU

6. Notre Dame
#3 Michigan, #5 NW, #16 TN, #20 GT

7. Duke
#3 Michigan, #5 NW, #6 ND, #17 USC

8. UCLA
#4 FL, #10 Miami, #11 Stanford, #12 Cal

9. Clemson
#13 FSU, #14 Georgia, #15 SC, #18 Mississippi

10. Miami
#9 Clemson, #13 FSU, #14 GA, #20 GT

11. Stanford - 55.35 pts.
#8 UCLA, #12 Cal, #21 ASU, #27 Texas

12. Cal - 51.81 pts.
#8 UCLA, #17 USC twice, #20 GT, #21 ASU


So looking at their best 4 wins and their computer points the 12 teams above are LOCKS to host an NCAA regional. :worship:

Since these teams are already locks no need for me to look at their remaining schedule.

Gouci, I did a similar analysis the other day for a different reason. The top ten teams before this last ranking came out seemed odd to me so I wanted to see what teams had the most top ten wins, which is the most important in my mind going into the NCAA's. As your analysis proves here, its the top three ranked teams this week that all have won four times and now NC five after beating Duke tonight. I also looked at who had the most top 25 wins and the results were all similar.

gouci
Apr 8th, 2010, 04:14 AM
I looked at the remaining schedule and computer points of the teams on the bubble for hosting a regional.

Below is the analysis and the conclusion is on the following post.


SEC tournament seed projections

1. Florida 11-0
2. Georgia 9-2
3. South Carolina 8-3
4. Mississippi 8-3
5. Tennessee 6-5
6. Arkansas 6-5
7. Vanderbilt 6-6


14. Florida St. - 39.17 pts.
best wins = #10 Duke, #16 TN, #30 OSU, #32 NC St., #36 IL, #40 Virginia twice
to play = #7 Duke 4/17, #2 UNC 4/18, ACC QF #10 Duke 4/23, ACC SF #1 UNC 4/24

15. Georgia - 38.71 pts.
#13 FSU, #15 SC, #19 USF, #23 AK, #31 Vanderbilt
to play = #15 SC, #4 FL, #16 TN, SEC QF #16 SC 4/23

16. South Carolina - 35.65 pts.
#15 GA, #18 MS, #19 USF, #23 AK, #31 Vanderbilt, #36 IL
to play = #14 GA, #16 TN, #4 FL 4/17, SEC QF #15 GA 4/23, SEC SF #3 FL 4/24

13. Tennessee - 45.70 pts.
#13 FSU, #14 GA, #15 SC, #17 MS, #19 USF, #23 AK, #29 Vanderbilt twice
to play = #4 FL, #15 SC, #14 GA, SEC QF #29 Vandy 4/23, SEC SF #17 MS 4/24, SEC F #3 FL 4/25

18. USC - 35.25 pts.
#9 Clemson, #25 WA, #33 LBS, #54 Pepperdine
to play = #21 ASU, #8 UCLA, #10 Stanford 4/21

17. Mississippi - 35.57 pts.
#14 GA, #16 TN, #25 AK, #31 Vanderbilt, #36 IL
to play = SEC QF #25 AK 4/23, SEC SF #13 TN 4/24

24. South Florida - 34.59 pts.
#13 FSU, #32 NC St., #41 TX A&M, #42 Rice
to play = #6 ND, Big East SF #30 DePaul 4/24

20. Georgia Tech - 31.54 pts.
#1 UNC, #8 Clemson, #10 Duke, #11 Miami, #14 GA, #21 ASU, #31 Vandy, #32 NC St.
to play = #7 Duke, #2 UNC, #31 Virginia, ACC QF #11 Miami 4/23, ACC SF #8 Clemson 4/24, ACC F #1 UNC 4/25

23. Arizona St. - 32.66 pts.
#12 Cal, #17 USC, #25 WA
to play = #17 USC, #8 UCLA, #56 AZ

.

gouci
Apr 8th, 2010, 04:49 AM
Here is how I handicap the remaining teams and their chances to host a regional.


Most likely to host regional

1. #14 Georgia

- Needs 1 win over either #15 South Carolina, #16 Tennessee or #18 Mississippi to lock up a regional.


2. Winner of #15 South Carolina at #16 Tennessee


3. Winner of SEC Tournament #4 vs #5 seed

- Likely #18 Mississippi vs #16 Tennessee.


4. Winner of #21 Arizona St. at #17 USC


Chance to host

#13 Florida St. = Would have to upset one from either #2 UNC, #7 Duke or #9 Clemson.

#19 South Florida = Would have to upset both #6 Notre Dame and #26 DePaul.

#20 Georgia Tech = Would have to upset one from either #2 UNC, #7 Duke or #9 Clemson.


Conclusion

In my opinion SEC teams will host 3 of the last 4 regionals. The SEC teams in position to host regionals will play each other with the winner receiving enough of a rankings boost to secure hosting a regional.

The Pac 10 in my humble opinion is in position to claim the final regional.


Key Matches

Fri. 4/9 = #15 South Carolina at #14 Georgia

Fri. 4/9 = #21 Arizona St. at #17 USC

Sun. 4/11 = #15 South Carolina at #16 Tennessee

Sat. 4/17 = #16 Tennessee at #14 Georgia

Fri. 4/23 = SEC Tournament #4 vs #5 seed
.

Embittered
Apr 8th, 2010, 12:05 PM
All this is beyond my ken, of course, so I'll pick up on a side issue.

Most likely to host regional

Most likely to be top seeds in a regional, certainly, but is the region necessarily their own?

Here's the link 2nd_serve gave a day or two ago.
Here is a link to the official memorandum (http://www.itatennis.com/Assets/ita_assets/pdf/NCAA+Championships/2010+NCAA+Championships/2010+NCAA+Championship+Memo.pdf)that explains the site selection process.
Bylaw 31.1.3 prescribes the five primary criteria in site selection:
 Quality and availability of facility and other necessary accommodations;
 Revenue potential;
 Attendance history and potential;
 Geographical location; and
 Championships operating costs.

As I read it, ranking is only one part of one of five criteria used to select the hosts.

2nd_serve
Apr 10th, 2010, 08:40 PM
I'll do an multi-part analysis.




So looking at their best 4 wins and their computer points the 12 teams above are LOCKS to host an NCAA regional. :worship:

Since these teams are already locks no need for me to look at their remaining schedule.


Excellent analysis you make, but I would respond that these last days of regular season and Divisional playoffs are going to help decide seeds, and being seeded right in top 4 or 8 can be a big difference than a 9-16 etc.

2nd_serve
Apr 11th, 2010, 07:55 PM
Duke lost to Georgia Tech and Clemson, how much will this effect the seeding.

2nd_serve
Apr 14th, 2010, 04:25 PM
1 81.71 North Carolina (http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/unc-w-tennis-sched.html) 2
2 80.90 Baylor University (http://www.baylorbears.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/bay-w-tennis-sched.html) 1
3 76.08 University of Florida (http://www.gatorzone.com/tennis/sched.php?sport=tennw) 4
4 72.00 University of Michigan (http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/mich-w-tennis-sched.html) 3
5 67.61 University of Notre Dame (http://www.und.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/nd-w-tennis-sched.html) 6
6 64.02 Duke University (http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&SPID=1840&SPSID=22613) 7
7 63.85 UCLA (http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/ucla-w-tennis-sched.html)8
8 63.50 Clemson University (http://clemsontigers.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/clem-w-tennis-sched.html) 9
9 61.81 Northwestern University (http://nusports.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/nw-w-tennis-sched.html) 5
10 56.15 Stanford (http://www.gostanford.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/stan-w-tennis-sched.html)11
11 54.76 University of Miami (Florida (http://hurricanesports.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/mifl-w-tennis-sched.html)) 10
12 52.77 California (http://www.calbears.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/cal-w-tennis-sched.html)12
13 43.30 University of Georgia (http://www.georgiadogs.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=8800&KEY=&SPID=3590&SPSID=40715) 14
14 40.59 University of Tennessee (http://www.utladyvols.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/tennw-w-tennis-sched.html) 16
15 39.98 Florida State University (http://www.seminoles.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/fsu-w-tennis-sched.html) 13
16 37.77 University of Southern California (http://www.usctrojans.com/sports/w-tennis/sched/usc-w-tennis-sched.html) 17
17 36.04 University of Mississippi 18
18 35.42 University of South Carolina 15
19 32.51 University of South Florida 19
20 32.48 University of Texas at Austin 27

gouci
Apr 14th, 2010, 10:48 PM
Taking a quick look here are other locks for the NCAA at-large.


(ranking)(team)(# wins vs top 60)-(# win vs top 61-75)

Locks

29. Vanderbilt 4-5
26. Virginia 5-1
33. Princeton 7-2
32. Ohio St. 5-1
36. Texas A&M 3-3
35. Tulsa 6-2
34. UNLV 3-4

46. North Carolina St. 3-2-1 16.69 pts. -4
wins = 32 Princeton, 53 FIU, 51 WF, 66 Winthrop, 65 CofC, VA Tech
plays ACC 1R #53 WF 4/22

42. Indiana 3-1-0 18.16 pts. -1
wins = 14 TN, 49 Purdue, 51 WF, 71 Minn.
plays Big10 QF #26 Iowa 4/30

38. St. Mary's 4-3-0 20.91 pts. -12
wins = 44 Pepp., 44 Pepp., 45 LBS, 54 Sac. St., 63 Cal Poly, 70 USD, 69 UCI
plays WCC F #44 Pepperdine 4/25

45. Long Beach St. 1-6-0 16.80 pts. +3
wins = 36 NE, 63 Cal Poly, 63 CP, 71 Minn., 69 UCI, 74 NV, 67 SDSU
plays #63 Cal Poly 5/1, #69 UCI 5/2


Bubble teams = 5

48. Rice 4-2-0 16.16 pts. +20
wins = 24 VCU, 25 AR, 50 AZ, 75 TX Tech, 62 LSU, 60 N. TX
plays CUSA SF #35 Tulsa 4/24

40. Utah 3-3-1 18.71 pts. +17
wins = 23 DePaul, 33 UNLV, 50 AZ, 64 TCU, 73 BYU, 67 SDSU, Wichita St.
plays #77 TCU 4/18, MWC SF #67 SDSU 4/30

47. Yale 6-0-0 16.43 pts. +1 = lock 4/16 with win over #53 Dartmouth
wins = 41 Harvard, 51 WF, 56 W&M, 57 Dartmouth, 57 Dartmouth, #59 Brown
plays #53 Dartmouth 4/16, #56 Harvard 4/18, #58 Brown 4/24

44. Pepperdine 3-4-0 17.44 pts. -9 = lock 4/16 with win over #40 LBS
wins = 33 UNLV, 45 LBS, 48 Rice, 63 Cal Poly, 70 USD, 70 USD, 67 SDSU
plays #40 LBS 4/16, WCC SF #62 SD 4/24, WCC F #38 SMC 4/25

41. Harvard 5-1-0 18.37 pts. -2 = lock 4/21 with win over #56 Dartmouth
wins = 32 Princeton, 38 SMC, 47 Yale, 57 Dart., 59 Brown, 74 NV
plays #62 Brown 4/16, #46 Yale 4/18, #56 Dart. 4/21


Long shots

39. Oklahoma 3-4-1 19.86 pts. +2
wins = 34 Tulsa, 58 OK St., 68 AL, 65 CoC, 72 CO, 75 TX Tech, Wichita St., 60 N. TX
plays #59 OK St. 4/14, #49 Nebraska 4/23, B12 QF #36 TX A&M 4/30

43. Boise St. 1-5-0 17.57 pts. -17
wins = 40 UT, 70 USD, 72 CO, 69 UCI, 73 BYU, 74 NV
plays WAC F Fresno St. 5/2

53. FIU 4-0-1 12.78 pts. +11 = eliminated 4/11 with MS St. & North TX falling out of rankings
wins = 31 SMU, 47 Yale, 59 Brown, MS St., 60 North TX
plays SBC F North TX 4/25

49. Purdue 2-1-0 14.71 pts. -4 = eliminated 4/23 with loss to #28 Iowa
wins = 35 OSU, 41 Harvard, 71 Minn.
plays #28 Iowa 4/23, #66 Minn. 4/25, B10 QF #21 Illinois 4/30

36. Nebraska 3-4-1 23.48 pts. -18 = lock 4/24 with win over #57 OKlahoma St.
wins = 37 TA&M, #39 OK, #58 OK St., 71 MN, 72 CO, 69 UCI, 75 TX Tech, Wichita St.
plays #34 TX A&M 4/16, #37 OK 4/23, #57 OK St. 4/24, B12 QF #75 TX Tech 4/30, B12 SF #18 Texas 5/1

50. Wake Forest 2-1 = eliminated 4/ll with loss to #31 Virginia

59. Oklahoma St. 1-2 = eliminated 4/14 with loss to #43 Oklahoma
plays #43 OK 4/14, #49 NE 4/24

75. San Diego St. 2-3-0 5.76 pts. = eliminated 4/16 with loss to Wyoming
wins = 38 SMC, 40 Utah, 70 USD, 64 TCU, 73 BYU
plays #66 USD 4/19, MWC QF #73 BYU 4/29, MWC SF #40 Utah 4/30, MWC F #64 TCU 5/1

77. TCU 2-2-2 = eliminated 4/18 with loss to #42 Utah
plays BYU 4/17, #42 Utah 4/18, MWC QF Wyoming 4/29, MWC SF #33 UNLV 4/30, MWC F #67 SDSU 5/1

.

gouci
Apr 14th, 2010, 10:48 PM
I added both San Diego St. and TCU as long shots for an NCAA at-large based on their remaining schedule.


Long Shots

75. San Diego St. 1-1

- Still plays #66 San Diego and possibly #36 UNLV, #42 Utah or TCU in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

77. TCU 1-2

- Still plays #42 Utah and possibly #75 San Diego St. or #36 UNLV in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

.

gouci
Apr 15th, 2010, 01:36 AM
I went ahead and looked at the data for the teams ranked #51 to #77 just to be thorough. I added #56 Harvard as a bubble team and #59 Oklahoma State as a long shot based on their remaining schedule.

Adding #56 Harvard as a bubble team should be proof I don't just look at the current rankings and assume a team will hold their ground :rolleyes: but I make projections based on analyzing data. :kiss:


Bubble Teams

56. Harvard 2-1

- Still plays #46 Yale, #53 Dartmouth and #62 Brown.


Long Shots

59. Oklahoma State 1-2

- Still plays #43 Oklahoma and #49 Nebraska.


Eliminated

50. Wake Forest 2-1

- Wake Forest was eliminated from NCAA At-large contention with their loss to #31 Virgina on 4/11.

Kevin.
Apr 15th, 2010, 01:59 AM
Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State 4-3.

gouci
Apr 15th, 2010, 04:00 AM
Eliminated

59. Oklahoma State 1-2

- Oklahoma St. was eliminated from NCAA At-large contention with their loss to #43 Oklahoma today.

gouci
Apr 18th, 2010, 01:44 AM
Locks

47. Pepperdine 4-2

- Pepperdine is a lock for an NCAA at-large with their win over #40 Long Beach St. The 1st of my bubble teams punches their NCAA ticket.


At-Large Implications

#56 Harvard def. #62 Brown 5-2 (http://www.gocrimson.com/sports/wten/2009-10/releases/20100416vh9ajy)

#49 Nebraska upsets #34 Texas A&M 5-2 (http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=146&SPID=38&ATCLID=204931096&DB_OEM_ID=100)


BYU upsets TCU 4-3 (http://gofrogs.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/041710aaa.html)

- Shalini Sahoo plays her 1st match for TCU.
.

2nd_serve
Apr 18th, 2010, 06:11 PM
Miami wins the doubles point.

gouci
Apr 18th, 2010, 08:55 PM
Hosting Implications

#14 Tennessee upsets #13 Georgia 4-2 (http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=196130&page=lr)


Regional Hosts

13. Georgia

- Georgia is a lock to host an NCAA regional with their win over #18 South Carolina. The 1st scenario of my most likely to host secures their regional.

14. Tennessee

- Tennessee is a lock to host an NCAA regional with their wins over #18 South Carolina and #13 Georgia. The 2nd scenario of my most likely to host secures their regional.


Eliminated

19. South Florida

- South Florida is eliminated from hosting a regional with their lost to Notre Dame.


So #15 Florida St., #16 USC, #18 South Carolina, #17 Mississippi and #25 Georgia Tech are fighting to host the last 2 regionals.

.

2nd_serve
Apr 18th, 2010, 09:24 PM
Miami defeats Duke 4-3.

gouci
Apr 18th, 2010, 09:30 PM
At-large Implications

#46 Yale def. #53 Dartmouth 6-1 (http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=183397&page=lr)


Locks

46. Yale 5-1

- Yale is a lock for an NCAA at-large with their win over #53 Dartmouth. The 2nd of my bubble teams punches their NCAA ticket.

.

gouci
Apr 19th, 2010, 06:05 AM
Hosting Implications

#1 North Carolina def. #15 Florida St. 4-0 (http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/041810aac.html)


At-large Implications

#42 Utah def. TCU 4-3 (http://gofrogs.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/041810aaa.html)

#56 Harvard def. #46 Yale 4-3 (http://www.yalebulldogs.com/sports/w-tennis/2009-10/releases/201004181q7wuy)

- Today Princeton receives the Ivy League automatic NCAA bid.


Eliminated

77. TCU 1-2

- TCU is eliminated from NCAA At-large contention with their loss to #42 Utah today.

.

10sE
Apr 19th, 2010, 11:26 PM
Big assumption to make about Georgia & Tennessee as locks to host. Remember that they still have to play in the SEC tournament and a loss in the quarters might be enough to do either of them in. They are the 3 and 4 seeds in the SEC tournament, so they will have tough 4-5 and 3-6 matches and it is conceivable that a couple of teams like Ole Miss or even Vanderbilt could make strong runs through the tournament and take away top-16 spots.

Also you're probably right about South Florida being out of hosting but it is by no means a lock. At this point it is really too far out to rule anyone out, assuming a team plays in a strong conference, has a conference tournament, and still has a chance for some good wins. The loss against ND isn't going to hurt USF that much and maybe a win against DePaul in the Big East tournament combined with some bad losses by teams ahead of them in their respective tournaments gets them in. Also, though it is unlikely, a win against ND in the conference tournament would likely get them into the top 16...which as we have seen in the last few years doesn't guarantee that you're going to host anyway!

Probably right about most of your predictions, though I wouldn't call most of them "locks" just yet. I think a "lock" is a team that, even were they to lose the rest of their matches, would still be where you project them to be. With so much tennis left to play, I just don't think that you can call anyone a lock for anything at this point. Even if a team is in a conference with no conference tournament, they are still at the mercy of what the teams above them and below them do. A team ranked 42 today and static this week could have the bad luck of having the 43-49 teams do well in their tournaments and could find themselves out of the NCAA tournament.

gouci
Apr 22nd, 2010, 08:36 AM
Hosting Implications

#12 Stanford def. #18 USC 4-3 (http://www.usctrojans.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/042110aaa.html)


At-Large Implications

#45 Harvard def. #56 Dartmouth 4-3 (http://www.gocrimson.com/sports/wten/2009-10/releases/100421_Dartmouth_recap)


Locks

45. Harvard 5-1-0

- Harvard is now a lock for an NCAA at-large with their win over #56 Dartmouth.


Eliminated

49. FIU 3-0-2

- FIU is eliminated from NCAA at-large contention with #66 Mississippi St. and #74 North Texas falling out of the rankings on 4/11.

75. San Diego St. 1-2-0

- SDSU is eliminated from NCAA At-large contention with their loss to Wyoming on 4/16.


.

gouci
Apr 23rd, 2010, 06:30 AM
At-large Implications

#53 Wake Forest def. #41 North Carolina St. 4-2 (http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=196988&page=lr)


#74 LSU upsets #64 Alabama 4-2 (http://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=204934312)

- LSU's ranking increase helps Rice and San Diego. USD's ranking helps UCI & SDSU which in turn will pull up Long Beach St.

- Alabama's loss doesn't help Oklahoma.

gouci
Apr 24th, 2010, 03:48 AM
Hosting Implications

#14 Florida St. upsets #10 Duke 4-2 (http://www.seminoles.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/042310aaa.html)

#20 Georgia Tech upsets #11 Miami 4-3 (http://ramblinwreck.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/stats/2009-2010/gt042310.html)

#16 South Carolina upsets #15 Georgia 4-1 (http://www.georgiadogs.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=40712&SPID=3590&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=8800&ATCLID=204934930)

#13 Tennessee def. #29 Vanderbilt 4-2 (http://www.utladyvols.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/042310aaa.html)

#17 Mississippi def. #25 Arkansas 4-2 (http://www.olemisssports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=13160&SPID=753&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=2600&ATCLID=204935119)

- How did Mississippi become the SEC #2 seed and Georgia became the #4 seed? The standings on the ITA website must have been wrong. :scratch: Georgia was ranked #13 and a lock to host a regional until they ended the season with 3 straight losses including getting upset back to back which probably just eliminated Georgia from becoming a regional host. :timebomb:


Regional Hosts

14. Florida State

- Florida St. is a lock to host an NCAA regional with their win over #10 Duke.


Eliminated

18. USC

- USC is eliminated from hosting a regional with the upsets by Florida St. and South Carolina.

fantic
Apr 24th, 2010, 03:51 AM
Duke and Georgia....:o I was counting on you guys..

gouci
Apr 24th, 2010, 04:35 AM
At-large Implications

#28 Iowa def. #52 Purdue 6-1 (http://www.purduesports.com/sports/w-tennis/stats/2009-2010/042310.html)

#40 Nebraska upsets #37 Oklahoma 6-1 (http://www.soonersports.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/042310aaa.html)

- Nebraska exposes overrated Oklahoma and on the road no less. :o


Eliminated

52. Purdue 2-0-0

- Purdue is eliminated from NCAA At-large contention with their loss to Iowa on 4/23.

Embittered
Apr 24th, 2010, 08:34 AM
- How did Mississippi become the SEC #2 seed and Georgia became the #4 seed?

Well, Mississppi, Georgia and Tennessee all finished 8-3 (http://www.secsports.com/sports/tennis/default.aspx) so I take it they just took the result of the mini-league between the three.

Sorry, trying to get up to 100 posts, so I'm going to say any old rubbish. Wish I could put that in my sig, but I don't seem to have one. Maybe when I get to 100 posts.

gouci
Apr 25th, 2010, 05:34 AM
At-Large Implications

#35 Tulsa def. #47. Rice 4-2 (http://www.tulsahurricane.com/sports/w-tennis/stats/2009-2010/tls0424w.html)

#48 Yale def. #58 Brown 5-2 (http://www.yalebulldogs.com/sports/w-tennis/2009-10/releases/201004246ad2sk)

#44 Pepperdine def. #62 San Diego 4-0 (http://www.pepperdinesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=90162&SPID=10846&DB_OEM_ID=18500&ATCLID=204936079)

#40 Nebraska def. #57 Oklahoma St. 4-3 (http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=146&SPID=38&ATCLID=204936065&DB_OEM_ID=100)

#59 Marshall upsets #27 SMU 4-2 (http://itarankings.itatennis.com/TeamMatch.aspx?scseId=197245&page=lr)

- A huge upset by Marshall but NOT enough to get them an at-large. :toothy:


LOCKS

40. Nebraska 3-4-1

- Nebraska is now a lock for an NCAA at-large with their state sweep over #37 Oklahoma and #57 Oklahoma St.

gouci
Apr 25th, 2010, 07:55 AM
Oklahoma

Just some thoughts on Oklahoma.

1. Why in my humble opinion they're over ranked.

- Oklahoma defeated at the time #30 Alabama 4-3 early in the season which got Oklahoma ranked #36 the following week. However 2 of Alabama's returning starters from last season, which helped Alabama get a high pre-season ranking, were missing against Oklahoma including Alabama's #1 last season Tiffany Welcher.

- Oklahoma's best and only win over a top 55 team this season was against #35 Tulsa. Oklahoma defeated Tulsa 4-3, however Tulsa's regular #2 Anastasia Erofeeva was missing from Tulsa's singles line-up.


2. Below were Oklahoma's ranked wins and why they may be on shaky ground.

- #35 Tulsa = Ranking headed upward.

- #57 Oklahoma St. = Ranking will surely drop. One of their ranked wins in Wichita St. lost their ranking this week. This will pull down OSU's ranking several spots. Also OSU just lost to Nebraska and will probably lose to Texas in the Big 12 tournament.

- #64 Alabama = Ranking headed downward. Was upset by #74 LSU in the SEC tournament.

- #65 College of Charleston = May lose ranking. One of their only 2 ranked wins, Charleston Southern, fell out of the rankings this week.

- #68 Colorado = Ranking headed downward. Has lost 3 straight and will probably lose to Baylor in the Big 12 tournament.

- #70 Texas Tech = Ranking headed downward. Will probably play Nebraska in Big 12 Tournament. Only ranked wins are over #57 Oklahoma St. and #68 Colorado, see above.

- Wichita State = Lost their ranking this week. This may pull Oklahoma's ranking down a few spots.

It will be interesting to see if Oklahoma's #37 ranking slides out of NCAA At-large contention by season's end.


For those saying not to assume, this is the type of analysis I perform for all the at-large contenders before projecting a lock or elimination. :lol:
.

gouci
Apr 25th, 2010, 06:05 PM
Hosting Implications

#1 North Carolina def. #14 Florida St. 4-0 (http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/042410aaa.html)

#3 Florida def. #16 South Carolina 4-0 (http://www.gatorzone.com/story.php?id=18066)

#13 Tennessee def. #17 Mississippi 4-3 (http://www.utladyvols.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/042410aaa.html)

#30 DePaul def. #24 South Florida 4-0 (https://www.nmnathletics.com//pdf8/689196.pdf)

#20 Georgia Tech def. #8 Clemson 4-2 (http://ramblinwreck.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/stats/2009-2010/gt042410.html)


Regional Hosts

20. Georgia Tech

- Georgia Tech is a lock to host an NCAA regional with their upset wins over #11 Miami and #8 Clemson.

16. South Carolina

- South Carolina is a lock to host an NCAA regional with their win over #15 Georgia. I gave SC the nod over Mississippi because of their head to head win over Ole Miss.


My projection for the 4/27 rankings.

10. Tennessee
11. Duke
12. Miami
13. Georgia Tech
14. Cal
15. Florida St.
16. South Carolina -7

17. Mississippi -6
18. Texas -2
19. Georgia
20. USC
21. Illinois

- I should note Texas and Illinois still have an outside chance of hosting a regional only if either wins their conference tournament.

Edit: bumped up Georgia Tech from 15 to 13 with upset over #1 UNC.
.

gouci
Apr 26th, 2010, 07:23 AM
North Texas def. #49 FIU 4-3 (http://www.fiusports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=49064&SPID=4761&DB_OEM_ID=11700&ATCLID=204936334)

North Texas receives the Sun Belt Conference auto bid.

gouci
Apr 26th, 2010, 07:27 AM
If I had to guess today using top 45 as cut-off

Last 8 In

39. Utah 18.54
40. Nebraska 18.35
42. Boise St. 17.68
44. Pepperdine 17.29
45. Harvard 17.03

46. Long Beach St. 16.62
- Probably pulled up by rising Nebraska and San Diego St.
- Pulled down by sliding Minnesota.

47. Rice 16.31
- Helped with Texas Tech getting ranked.
- Probably pulled up by rising LSU and maybe by rising North Texas.

48. Yale 14.85
- Probably pulled up by rising Harvard and win over #58 Brown.


Last 4 Out

37. Oklahoma 19.95
- Probably pulled down by sliding Oklahoma St., College of Charleston and lost its ranking Wichita St.
- Maybe pulled up by rising North Texas.

41. N.C. St. 18
- Probably pulled down by sliding Winthrop and College of Charleston.

43. Indiana 17.42
- Probably pulled down by sliding Minnesota.

49. FIU 13.92
- Maybe pulled up by rising North Texas.

.

gouci
Apr 30th, 2010, 07:46 PM
At-large Implications

#28 Iowa def. #42 Indiana 4-1 (http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/043010aab.html)


LOCKS

40. Utah 3-3-1

- Utah is now a lock for an NCAA at-large regardless of how they do in the MWC tournament. Utah will be pulled up by the rise in rankings of DePaul and San Diego St.



Eliminated

46. North Carolina State 3-2-1

- N.C. St. is eliminated from NCAA At-large contention with their drop of 1.31 computer points this week. N.C. St. will slightly be pulled out of At-Large contention by the slides of FIU and Winthrop.


47. Yale 6-0-0

- Yale is eliminated from NCAA At-Large contention. I originally had them as a lock but it seems Yale needed a 2nd win over Harvard to get them in. Yale improved by 1.58 computer points from last week to 16.43 pts. From past seasons 16 points usually gets you an at-large but not this season. Yale did have a win over #58 Brown last week but that was their 6th best win and apparently didn't help as much as I originally thought.

gouci
Apr 30th, 2010, 08:11 PM
If I had to guess today using top 45 as cut-off

Last 4 In

42. Indiana 18.16

- Pulled down greatly if #71 Minnesota loses their ranking.


44. Pepperdine 17.44

- Probably pulled up by rising San Diego St., Rice and Long Beach St.


45. Long Beach St. 16.80

- Probably pulled up by rising San Diego St. and UCI.
- Pulled down if #71 Minnesota or #74 Nevada loses their ranking.


48. Rice 16.16

- Probably pulled up by #60 North Texas who just got ranked and rising LSU.
- Pulled down if #75 Texas Tech loses their ranking.


Last 2 Out

43. Boise St. 17.57

- Probably pulled up by rising UCI.
- In danger of dropping out of At-large if any of #72 Colorado, #73 BYU or #74 Nevada loses their rankings. :help:


46. North Carolina St. 16.69


If Boise St. doesn't get an at-large that moves the At-large to 44 and one of the last 4 in is bumped out.

Now I've gotta go there's someplace I gotta visit. ;)

Embittered
Apr 30th, 2010, 11:07 PM
# 49 Purdue is about to win over # 21 Illinois it looks like ... jump from 49 to 40.. CHANGES 'CURRENT # 44' TO AT LARGE CUT OFF as Purdue will be LOCK if they beat Illinois.
Ten minutes can be a long time...

How did Lambropoulos end up at no. 6? She was at no. 2 (http://www.fightingillini.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/040410aaa.html) when these teams faced earlier this month.

gouci
May 1st, 2010, 06:54 AM
At-Large Implications

#21 Illinois def. #49 Purdue 4-2 (http://www.fightingillini.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/043010aab.html)

#37 Texas A&M def. #39 Oklahoma 4-2 (http://www.aggieathletics.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/043010aab.html)


#36 Nebraska def. #75 Texas Tech 4-0 (http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=146&SPID=38&ATCLID=204939330&DB_OEM_ID=100)

- This could bump Texas Tech out of the rankings and slightly pull down Rice and Oklahoma.


#64 TCU upsets #33 UNLV 4-3 (http://gofrogs.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/043010aac.html)

- TCU's ranking increase will help BYU which helps Boise St. stay an at-large contender.


#67 SDSU upsets #40 Utah 4-1 (http://goaztecs.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/043010aaa.html)

- Better late than never on SDSU showing how good they really are. This helps Pepperdine and LBS.

- If SDSU beats TCU there is a small chance SDSU jumps into the top 44 and pushes the at-large bubble back down 1 spot. SDSU would have wins over #38 SMC, #40 Utah, TCU twice (probably jumps into 50's with win over #33 UNLV), #70 USD and #73 BYU.

gouci
May 3rd, 2010, 05:56 AM
At-Large Implications

#18 Texas def. #36 Nebraska 4-0 (http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=146&SPID=38&ATCLID=204939751&DB_OEM_ID=100)

Fresno St. upsets #74 Nevada 4-1 (http://www.gobulldogs.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/050110aab.html)

- Nevada's loss may knock them out of the rankings which may hurt Long Beach St., Boise St. and Harvard.


#64 TCU def. #67 San Diego St. 4-3 (http://gofrogs.cstv.com/sports/w-tennis/recaps/050110aac.html)

- SDSU loses the match in a 3rd set tie-breaker. Another SDSU win would have helped Long Beach St. and Pepperdine.

- TCU receives the Mountain West Conference NCAA auto bid.


#43 Boise St. def. Fresno St. 4-3 (http://www.broncosports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=48597&SPID=4071&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=9900&atclid=204940179)

- Boise St. receives the WAC NCAA auto bid.

gouci
May 3rd, 2010, 06:49 AM
At-Large Implications

#69 UCI upsets #45 Long Beach St. 4-1 (javascript:__doPostBack('ctl00$ContentPlaceHolder 1$rptTeamScoreAndSchedule$ctl01$lnkToScoreSheet',' '))

- At #1 singles UCI's Courtney Byron was able to handle the power of Jaklin Alawi and matched up well against her. Byron's effective game plan was making it Backhand City for Alawi all day long. Alawi would slice her backhand which didn't hurt Byron and kept it away from Alawi's powerful forehand. Alawi's backhand slices allowed Byron to come up to the net on short balls and put it away. Byron won 7-5,6-4.

- At #2 singles it was UCI's April Bisharat's power vs Anais Dallara's speed. In this match power prevailed as Bisharat easily defeated Dallara 6-0,6-3. Bisharat who is a striker that goes for flat winners on both wings, was a bad match-up for Dallara because Bisharat's aggressiveness didn't allow Dallara much time to run down the balls.

- #5 singles was a rematch between UCI's Rebeca Kwan and Anna Jeczmionka. In the 1st meeting Kwan won a close match in a 3rd set tie-breaker. But Kwan was playing very well coming into the match having easily defeated a good #4 player in UCSB's Annabel Gledden 6-0,6-3 the day before. Kwan came up huge for UCI defeating Jeczmionka 6-3,6-2.

- UC Irvine receives the Big West Conference NCAA auto bid.


The NCAA automatic bid upsets just keep coming. The ACC, Mountain West, Big West and Sun Belt Conferences didn't have their #1 seed win the championship.