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View Full Version : Season Ending No1, Who Will Capture It?


RichyRena
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:00 PM
Okay because I had some free time on my hands and just generally wanted to find out, (since I couldn't find any post showing) the top players and their points they have to defend for the rest of the year. So I have

I only did the top 7 as I have a life and lets be honest only half of these women are actual contenders for the Number 1 let alone the rest of the tour.

(I wasn't sure wether to add SEC points, but I have. So if I shouldn't let me know)

Ranking As Of 8/9/8 (In Order Of Points To Defend)
1-Ana Ivanovic = 651
2-Elena Dementieva = 576
3-Svetlana Kuznetsova = 550
4-Jelena Jankovic = 477
5-Serena Williams = 411
6-Dinara Safina = 306
7-Venus Williams = 280

Current WTA Ranking
1-Serena Williams = 4091
2-Jelena Jankovic = 3965
3-Ana Ivanovic = 3532
4-Elena Dementieva = 3430
5-Dinara Safina = 3357
6-Svetlana Kuznetsova = 2571
8-Venus Williams = 2386

So for all you simpletons, if we took away the points they have to defend then it will make it alot easier to see who has the best chance of being season ending no1.

Rankings (When points to defend are deducted)
(=)1-Serena Williams = 3680
(=)2-Jelena Jankovic = 3488
(+2)3-Dinara Safina = 3051
(-1)4-Ana Ivanovic = 2881
(-1)5-Elena Dementieva = 2854
(+1)6-Venus Williams = 2106
(-1)7-Svetlana Kuznetsova = 2021


My opinions on the players rankings when the season ends.

1-Serena Williams - She is world number 1 for now, however Jankovic is hot on her heels. Serena has been consistant all year and will need to continue if she wants to keep herself at the top. If Serena plays JPN, Stuttgart,Moscow & Linz she should be fine. However, she is under threat if she only plays 1 or 2 more tournaments. If she loses early in those tournaments it can cost her dearly. But I still see her finishing top 3 what ever the result but most likely Number 1 if she continues to be consistant.


2-Jelena Jankovic - Jankovic has the 3rd most points to defend. However, we all know she plays every tournament available to it shouldn't be a huge problem covering that ground up. She will need to perform well though in all her events to remain a contender. I predict Jankovic finishing 2nd.


3-Dinara Safina - We have all herd enough of the 'Most in form player' speeches, we know she is playing well. She has very few points to defend. Not only that but she has now qualified for the YEC where she will likely gain a great boost(Only 4 players in the top 8 now were in the YEC last year). However, I just see the likes of Jankovic and Serena doing 1 better then her in every tournament they are in together. Therefore, I predict her to finish 3rd


4-Elena Dementieva - Recently in form. Has been very solid. However, she has ALOT of points to defend. it has been a while since dementieva has been winning concistantly, will she be able to keep it up? To be honest it will be very close between her and Venus who will end the year at number 4. I see dementieva finishing 4th only because she will likely play more tournaments then Venus.


5-Venus Williams - Although her ranking points are low she has the least amount of points to defend. She only played the Asian tour last year and none of Europe. All the european tours are higher tiers. If venus plans on playing these she will easily make up her points she has to defend, possibly in 1 tournament. Her ranking is low right now because she didn't play the Europe season last year. If she plays enough tournaments and gets good results the best I see her doing is 3rd(She didn't play the YEC so a good result there could do her ranking wonders). However, realistically she will finish 4th. But due to dementieva likely playing more tournaments im going for the safe option of putting her 5th


6-Ana Ivanovic - She has the most points to defend, giving her current form and results its a bit unpredictable what will happen. The bad thing for her is, she had a great European Season last year, so even if she was able to replicate her European Season her ranking points would pretty much stay the same. If she has a bad season she should drop far but her Australian Open points are keeping her in the top. Since she will likely not gain any points the other players who have nothing to defend like Safina and Venus will likely surpass her which is why she has fallen to 6th.


7-Svetlana Kuznetsova- She has a junk of points to defend but similar to Jankovic she plays alot of tournaments so can make up the ground. The only problem for her is unlike Venus, Ivanovic & Safina, she doesnt have Grand Slam Wins and Finals points to keep her boosted at the top. Her loss early at the Open this year cost her greatly, had she of defended most of those points she would be a top 4 finisher however I dont see her having an amazing ending season. Even if she were to defend her points similar to Ivanovic her ranking points wont go any higher. Since her points are pretty low and even with a good season they wont go up very much I see her finishing 7th.


1st & 2nd - Battle Between Serena & Jankovic

3rd - Safina

4th & 5th - Battle Between Venus & Dementieva

6th & 7th - Battle Between Ivanovic & Kuznetsova

Outside Contenders for top 8 finish I would pick
1-Radwanska - Been playing well, wouldnt see why not
2-Sharapova - Has alot of points not alot of people can catch up to it.
3- Daniela Hantuchova & Vera, these two always some how make it to the YEC so although they have alot of points to defend, mainly Hantuchova, im sure 1 of them has a chance of top 8.

Your thoughts? Who will end the season ranked in the top 8?

InsideOut.
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:09 PM
Ana doesn't have 951 points to defend because she sucked everywhere except at YEC and Luxembourg last year. She has 275+40+1+335 = 651 points to defend

LudwigDvorak
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:15 PM
And Dementieva is only defending 575, 430 of which came from one tournament. Huh? What's this 771?

Mikey.
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:20 PM
I'm pretty sure Jelena doesn't have 587 points to defend either. Bali:40, Beijing: 190, Stuttgart:140, Bangkok:1, Zurich:1 and YEC:105. That's only 477. And besides some of those points aren't in her best 17 of results, so they aren't all relevant when calculating her rankings.

RichyRena
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:20 PM
I think People are forgetting Tokyo? Its been moved to the fall season. So I would think they would still have their points from it and lose them after the tournament has finished?Ive also added points where they have got only 1 point from pulling out or retiring.

Dave.
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:21 PM
Tokyo points already came off in February (Ivanovic was affected by it IIRC)

Wiggly
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:22 PM
Daniela has a massive amount of pts to defend. It would be amazing if she could defend 3/4 of it.

RichyRena
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:23 PM
Tokyo points already came off in February (Ivanovic was affected by it IIRC)

Oh really? Okay, I will make the changes, Thanks :)

schorsch
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:23 PM
richyrena.... please go study the ranking system. for example the tokyo points from last year fell off after 52 weeks. but thx for the effort.

RichyRena
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:28 PM
richyrena.... please go study the ranking system. for example the tokyo points from last year fell off after 52 weeks. but thx for the effort.

Im making the changes now :)

schorsch
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:28 PM
:)

Noctis
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:54 PM
Serena of course Retard question:)

Miss Amor
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:58 PM
Serena :worship:

enchantrezz
Sep 10th, 2008, 04:59 PM
Potential year end number 1:

Current WTA Ranking points - Number Of Points To Defend + maximum points gain should they win all tournaments they entered this fall including YEC

sample: Serena Williams
4091 - 411 + 1910 ( tokyo/stuttgart/moscow/qatar) = 5590

sample : Jelena Jankovic
3965 - 477 + 2185 ( tokyo/beijing/stuttgart/moscow/qatar) = 5673

kwilliams
Sep 10th, 2008, 05:22 PM
I think Serena will hang on to her ranking...it's possible she'll drop it between now and then but I think she'll be number 1 come November.

tae04
Sep 10th, 2008, 05:37 PM
If Serena plays 2 events and the YEC, I'll say she will stay # 1. If she skips out this fall she'll lose it.

MrSerenaWilliams
Sep 10th, 2008, 05:38 PM
The whole deduction thing is confusing to me :scratch: but I think that Serena holds onto #1.

Dodoboy.
Sep 10th, 2008, 06:52 PM
Hopefully Serena :)

Must play Tokyo and Moscow though!

LDF
Sep 10th, 2008, 06:57 PM
If Serena sticks to her schedule and plays at least 2 out of Tokyo/Stuttgart/Moscow and then the YECs, I would expect her to end the year at no.1.

It'll be close between her and Jankovic though, and with both having the potential to gain a lot of points at the YECs it could go right to the wire.

Dinayer
Sep 10th, 2008, 07:01 PM
hopefully Ana or Jelena :D

enchantrezz
Sep 10th, 2008, 07:16 PM
Hopefully Serena :)

Must play Tokyo and Moscow though!

Must win Tokyo and Moscow to be sure. It doesnt help if she looses in the early rounds.

Dodoboy.
Sep 10th, 2008, 07:39 PM
Must win either Tokyo or Moscow!

Serena will be playing Tokyo i hope.

She hasn't withdrawn yet :)

Cp6uja
Sep 10th, 2008, 07:45 PM
1st & 2nd - Battle Between Serena & Jankovic

3rd - Safina

4th & 5th - Battle Between Venus & Dementieva

6th & 7th - Battle Between Ivanovic & Kuznetsova

Your thoughts? Who will end the season ranked in the top 8?How on Earth anybody expected that at end of season Venus will be better ranked than Ana or that Sveta have some chances to overtake Ivanovic. Venus and Sveta must fight with Radwanska to stay at TOP8 (even with Zvonareva) and Ana chances to stay at TOP3 at end of season is very good.

Here is real starting positions:
1. Serena Williams______3680
2. Jelena Jankovic_______3330
3. Dinara Safina________2972
4. Ana Ivanovic________2881
5. Elena Dementieva____2853
6. Maria Sharapova_____2515
7. Venus Williams______2106
8. Sveta Kuznetsova____2020
9. Aga Radwanska______1816
10. Vera Zvonareva_____1727

For all this players i use 5 mandatory 2008 results, plus 7 best of rest, so any of them have empty place in rankings for YEC/08 points and 4 other 2008 tournaments (out of Tokyo-I, Moscow-I, Beijing-II, Stuttgart-II, Zurich-II, Linz-II).

But before predictions people must to know some important facts:

- Out of this TOP10 best results in Asia (Tokyo/Beijing), Europian Indoors and YEC's have Maria Sharapova, but she will probably not compete anymore this season.

- Williams sisters traditionaly "boycoting" Europian indoors and Asian tournaments and theirs season between september and november is always pretty empty. For example if we count tier-I tournaments they both TOGHETHER SINCE 2000 just 7 times compete at Tokyo+Moscow+Zurich (Venus 4, Serena 3)!? They even couple times missed YECs.

- Ana Ivanovic last season reach Tokyo final, won Luxembourg and out of this players (if Maria will not compete) have best YEC result.

- Elena Dementieva is always pathetic at YEC's but on carpet surface (former winner of Tokyo and Moscow) she is elite player and of course she alredy wins this summer at Beijing.

- Before this season Dinara Safina best surface after clay is probably Carpet indoors (good results in Moscow and Paris), so if she so improved at clay and hardcourts since may this season why not to expect new improvmet at carpets also?

- For Jelena Jankovic and Svetlana Kuznetsova Indoors is always worst part of season, but in JJ case it's more because she played about 30 tournaments per season so in october have "dead horse" efect. This time is not like this so she is injury-free and ready for best season finish so far.

- Radwanska and Zvonareva is solid indoors players.

MarieC
Sep 10th, 2008, 08:54 PM
#1 is definitely going to be close between Serena and Jelena. It should be fun to watch. Ana is going to need a good fall to stay in the top 5. She's capable of it, lets hope the past is behind her now

frenchie
Sep 10th, 2008, 09:32 PM
Venus will finish at 6, not higher

No way she wins more than 700 points till the end of the year to be ahead of Ana or Elena

Craig.
Sep 11th, 2008, 12:45 AM
Dinara Safina. :bowdown:

terjw
Sep 11th, 2008, 01:03 AM
I think it will still be Serena.

But really so what. People keep on about how great being year end #1 is. But it isn't any better than #1 any other time since it's a rolling 12 months. To me - it shouldn't be a separate statistic - or one that means anything more than being #1 at any other time. Far more important is how many weeks you stay at #1 rather than the month you were #1.

I mean suppose someone was #1 right through the year and someone else pipped her at the end to be #1 after the YEC. The first player to me has the best record.

So - how long do we think Serena will stay at #1?

sammy01
Sep 11th, 2008, 02:45 AM
Venus will finish at 6, not higher

No way she wins more than 700 points till the end of the year to be ahead of Ana or Elena

i agree, venus has already pulled out of tokyo, so her chances of racking up big points have hugely decreased seen as she skipping 1 of only 2 tier 1's left.

serena and jj will battle for #1, ivanovic will drop down to 6th or 7th unless she realy has a good indoor season.

enchantrezz
Sep 11th, 2008, 02:52 AM
serena and jj will battle for #1

true. this will be like the jj/ana see-saw this summer where every week there is a new number 1, lol!

fightserena!!!
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:10 AM
Sammy, it's "this time I AS I and not as we"

but I love that song. *cries*

faboozadoo15
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:18 AM
So for all you simpletons, if we took away the points they have to defend then it will make it alot easier to see who has the best chance of being season ending no1.


:tape: :haha:
Who in HELL are you calling a simpleton? Read up on the system please.
Read a book too or something.

sammy01
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:24 AM
Sammy, it's "this time I AS I and not as we"

but I love that song. *cries*

you're right! i love that song s much, for anyone who has had a tough break-up its a killer in a good way :sad::sad::sad:

alanis is amazing!

SAEKeithSerena
Sep 11th, 2008, 04:30 AM
after the YEC Serena will have it, no questions asked.

peanuts
Sep 11th, 2008, 07:25 AM
Didn't realized before Ana actually had the most points to defend. From what I remembered, her fall season last year was disappointing. The SF in YEC had given her a lot of pts. A possible drop to no.6 is quite a fall given how well she played in first half of the year. :sad:

Barring any injury, I think it will be Serena but then again it's always hard to count out JJ since you can always depend on her to play a lot of tournaments.

homogenius
Sep 11th, 2008, 07:44 AM
It's between Serena and JJ imo.The USo final was very important cause Jelena would have had a decent leads in point with a win but despite the loss she has still a chance.

frenchie
Sep 11th, 2008, 11:14 AM
Don't forget that only best 17 results count in the ranking

All Serena's results count whereas Jelena has already played more than 17 tournaments so she can't add points every week

frontier
Sep 11th, 2008, 11:34 AM
I think JJ will get the same medicine from Serena she got from Justine because Serena knows how to beat her...back to back wins over this pusher

InsideOut.
Sep 11th, 2008, 01:57 PM
If Ana wins everything from now on, she will be number one :lol:

TheBoiledEgg
Sep 11th, 2008, 02:40 PM
Serena just withdrew from next weeks Tokyo tourn.

enchantrezz
Sep 11th, 2008, 02:51 PM
Wow, another opportunity for JJ

LudwigDvorak
Sep 11th, 2008, 02:51 PM
Wow, another opportunity for JJ

Dementieva, Ivanovic, and Safina as well.

MarieC
Sep 11th, 2008, 02:56 PM
Serena just withdrew from next weeks Tokyo tourn.

Didn't really expect Serena to play there after her win. It's an opportunity for Jelena to take advantage of

frenchie
Sep 11th, 2008, 02:59 PM
Jelena will lose her Beijing final from last year which is 190 points

What is her 18th result?

Olórin
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:01 PM
Expected. I think someone said that Jelena needs to win Tokyo to become number one.

Olórin
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:02 PM
Read a book too or something.

Why?

gaviotabr
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:04 PM
Jelena will lose her Beijing final from last year which is 190 points

What is her 18th result?

Her 18th best result is 70. But I think she will do better than that in Tokyo, so it will just be replacing the 190 points from Beijing last year for her PPO result.

gaviotabr
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:09 PM
Expected. I think someone said that Jelena needs to win Tokyo to become number one.

Yep. Jelena needs the title, because she defends 190 points this week. She has 3965-190=3775. With a final she would get 4075, still short 16 points, since Serena has 4091. With the title she would have 4205, which would give her a good lead. Jelena's biggest opportunity will come the week of China Open though, since she doesn't have points to defend and will be playing. It seems that Serena will only get back on court to play Stuttgart.

LudwigDvorak
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:12 PM
So Jelena is going to play:
Tokyo
Beijing
Stuttgart
Moscow
Doha

Is she scheduled for Zurich or Linz?

gaviotabr
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:16 PM
So Jelena is going to play:
Tokyo
Beijing
Stuttgart
Moscow
Doha

Is she scheduled for Zurich or Linz?

I'm not 100% sure, but I think she is on the entry list for Zurich. I believe Dinara has the same schedule. They are the 2 players who have the most tournaments on their schedules.

Ana is playing Tokyo, Beijing, Zurich and Linz.

Dementieva will play Tokyo, Stuttgart, Moscow, Luxembourg. Is she playing Zurich?

Cp6uja
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:19 PM
Serena just withdrew from next weeks Tokyo tourn.Personaly, i never in doubt that this will happen. Like i already says about Serena's past (and her sister) when we talking about september-november shedule:

- Williams sisters traditionaly "boycoting" Europian indoors and Asian tournaments and theirs season between september and november is always pretty empty. For example if we count tier-I tournaments they both TOGHETHER SINCE 2000 just 7 times compete at Tokyo+Moscow+Zurich (Venus 4, Serena 3)!? They even couple times missed YECs.
Probably this season Serena will finaly plays seriously at YEC (but not sure about Venus) which means also one preparation europian tournament before Doha.

Also, i remind again about real "starting positions" for ending 2008 rankings which include current "12 best" results of any player - with empty place in rankings for YEC/08 result and 4 others september-october Asia/Europe tournaments.

Real starting positions:
1. Serena Williams______3680
2. Jelena Jankovic_______3330
3. Dinara Safina________2972
4. Ana Ivanovic________2881
5. Elena Dementieva____2853
6. Maria Sharapova_____2515
7. Venus Williams______2106
8. Sveta Kuznetsova____2020
9. Aga Radwanska______1816
10. Vera Zvonareva_____1727

LudwigDvorak
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:20 PM
I'm not 100% sure, but I think she is on the entry list for Zurich. I believe Dinara has the same schedule. They are the 2 players who have the most tournaments on their schedules.

Ana is playing Tokyo, Beijing, Zurich and Linz.

Dementieva will play Tokyo, Stuttgart, Moscow, Luxembourg. Is she playing Zurich?

I was thinking she might be on for Zurich. Same goes for Dinara, but it makes zero sense to play FIVE weeks in a row. And Safina was the one (supposedly) crying about being so exhausted. Drop a few of these tournaments, jeez. :o

So it's looking like:
Williams - Stuttgart, Moscow, Doha
Jankovic - Tokyo, Beijing, Stuttgart, Moscow, Zurich, Doha
Dementieva - Tokyo, Stuttgart, Moscow, Luxembourg, Doha
Ivanovic - Tokyo, Beijing, Zurich, Linz, Doha
Safina - Tokyo, Beijing, Stuttgart, Moscow, Zurich, Doha
Kuznetsova - ???
Williams - ???

gaviotabr
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:26 PM
I was thinking she might be on for Zurich. Same goes for Dinara, but it makes zero sense to play FIVE weeks in a row. And Safina was the one (supposedly) crying about being so exhausted. Drop a few of these tournaments, jeez. :o

So it's looking like:
Williams - Stuttgart, Moscow, Doha
Jankovic - Tokyo, Beijing, Stuttgart, Moscow, Zurich, Doha
Dementieva - Tokyo, Stuttgart, Moscow, Luxembourg, Doha
Ivanovic - Tokyo, Beijing, Zurich, Linz, Doha
Safina - Tokyo, Beijing, Stuttgart, Moscow, Zurich, Doha
Kuznetsova - ???
Williams - ???

Yes, makes no sense to play so many tournaments in a row. I think that was Jelena's main problem last year. When she got to YEC, she was totally exausted.

Kuznetsova is definitely playing Tokyo, Beijing, Moscow. Don't know about Stuttgart.

I think Venus will play Stuttgart and Zurich. But with her, this part of the season, you never know.

By the way, I like your signature. It's a song, right? It sounds very familiar to me..

enchantrezz
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:27 PM
i remind again about real "starting positions" for ending 2008 rankings which include current "12 best" results of any player - with empty place in rankings for YEC/08 result and 4 others september-october Asia/Europe tournaments.

Real starting positions:
1. Serena Williams______3680
2. Jelena Jankovic_______3330
3. Dinara Safina________2972
4. Ana Ivanovic________2881
5. Elena Dementieva____2853
6. Maria Sharapova_____2515
7. Venus Williams______2106
8. Sveta Kuznetsova____2020
9. Aga Radwanska______1816
10. Vera Zvonareva_____1727

well im just too lazy to understand this whole ranking issue :lol:
just whats the bottomline here anyway...that all top 5 are still in contention for this number 1 race?:scratch:

InsideOut.
Sep 11th, 2008, 03:40 PM
^Theoretically, yes.

enchantrezz
Sep 11th, 2008, 04:00 PM
^Theoretically, yes.

thanks, thats all I need to know :)

Cp6uja
Sep 11th, 2008, 04:46 PM
well im just too lazy to understand this whole ranking issue :lol:
just whats the bottomline here anyway...that all top 5 are still in contention for this number 1 race?:scratch:You must be careful when use word RACE in this case, because possible confusion (b/c official YEC RACE).

Talking about official 2008 YEC RACE (which include for every player her all tournaments results) which is used to select 8 players for YEC in Doha, if JJ stay injury free she will finish 1st and Serena will infish 2nd. Period.

But this thread talking about SEASONS END RANKINGS which include only players seasons best 17 results (actualy 5 mandatory and 12 best of rest) and also include theirs DohaYEC/08 result (winner-750pts, RU-525pts, SF-335...). There Serena have some litle adventage ahead Jelena Jankovic, but if Ana or Elena or Dinara wins YEC (with some other good september-october results) - she also have solid chances to finished 2008 at #1.

So all current TOP5 players have SOME, but not SAME chances to reach #1 after YEC, and if Maria realy finished with this season - current TOP5 will finish (95%) this season like TOP5 (but we will see in which order). This "Year Ending #1 Race" is actualy much interesting than seems when you look official WTA ranking or YEC race.

améliemomo
Sep 11th, 2008, 04:54 PM
OMG 5 players competing to get the same place,the n°1 spot:eek:
never been so open!

améliemomo
Sep 11th, 2008, 05:04 PM
serena--> if she win every event she plays

1 of the serbians--> jancovic will play as many tournament that its possible to play

Vamos.
Sep 11th, 2008, 05:37 PM
If Jelena ends the world as #1 because she plays a shitload of tournaments it will ben absolute travesty. She is not the best player on tour, END. Serena; prevent her from getting there, please.