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View Full Version : Numbers Do Not Lie - WIMBLEDON 2008 GRASS (Speed/Bounce impact)


Cp6uja
Jul 14th, 2008, 07:40 PM
In january during Australian Open i have here research about new Plexicushion surface (http://www.tennisforum.com/showthread.php?t=329375) which they use since this season and compare official tournament stats with previous at Rebound Ace, and also with other slams. Today i doing same thing to check this summer popular theory about "New" Wimbledon Grass and like in Melbourne case - no sensational results... it's all pretty same.


Official stats (from official sites) of last five slams in mans competition
(Wimbledon 2008 and 2007, US Open 2007, Australian Open 2008 and Roland Garros 2008):
MANS COMPETITION Wi/08 Wi/07 USO/07 AO/08 RG/08
Matches Played 127 126 127 127 127
5 Set Matches 23 22 21 21 20
4 Set Matches 40 30 37 34 39
3 Set Matches 58 74 64 70 67
Sets Played 460 452 453 455 459
Tie Breaks Played 92 94 79 78 69
Total Games 4624 4554 4423 4400 4403
Winners 9772 9908 6415 5809 5046
Return Games Won 760 772 963 991 1021
Server Points Won 18737 18409 17326 17224 17400
Unforced Errors 5917 6274 5844 5809
Total Points 28449 28042 27413 27632 28050
First Serves In 17620 17992 16450 17003 17631
% 1st Serves In 61.9 64.2 60 61.5 62.9
Total Aces 2565 2399 2219 1963 1656
Total Double Faults 988 831 1044 906 758
1st Serve Pts Won 13087 13126 11762 11878 12094
% 1st Srv Pts Won 74.3 73 71.5 69.9 68.6
% 2nd Srv Pts Won 52.2 52.6 50.8 50.3 50.9





Official stats (from official sites) of last five slams in womans competition
(Wimbledon 2008 and 2007, US Open 2007, Australian Open 2008 and Roland Garros 2008):
WOMANS COMPETITION Wi/08 Wi/07 USO/07 AO/08 RG/08
Matches Played 126 127 127 127 127
3 Set Matches 44 36 25 36 43
2 Set Matches 82 91 102 90 84
Sets Played 296 290 279 288 297
Tie Breaks Played 34 22 17 23 26
Total Games 2838 2637 2463 2687 2690
Winners 5545 5404 3061 3228 2141
Return Games Won 890 813 857 1022 1020
Server Points Won 10776 9939 9132 9755 9930
Unforced Errors 4985 5059 4014 4732
Total Points 18585 17091 16176 17761 18095
First Serves In 11735 10889 9972 11162 11603
% 1st Serves In 63.1 63.7 61.6 62.8 64.1
Total Aces 686 727 582 534 515
Total Double Faults 884 828 803 909 831
1st Serve Pts Won 7585 7077 6278 6857 7084
% 1st Srv Pts Won 64.6 65 63 61.4 61.1
% 2nd Srv Pts Won 46.6 46.1 46 43.9 43.8




Speed/Bounces most related stats (in percentages) about court surface:
ATP GS tournaments
MANS COMPETITION Wi/08 Wi/07 USO/07 AO/08 RG/08
Return Games Won 16.77% 17.31% 22.17% 22.93% 23.56%
Server Points Won 65.86% 65.65% 63.2% 62.33% 62.03%
Total Aces 9.02% 8.56% 8.09% 7.1% 5.9%
1st Serve Pts Won 74.27% 72.95% 71.5% 69.86% 68.6%


WTA GS tournaments
WOMANS COMPETITION Wi/08 Wi/07 USO/07 AO/08 RG/08
Return Games Won 31.74% 31.09% 35.04% 38.36% 38.29%
Server Points Won 57.98% 58.15% 56.45% 54.92% 54.88%
Total Aces 3.69% 4.25% 3.6% 3.01% 2.85%
1st Serve Pts Won 64.64% 64.99% 62.96% 61.43% 61.05%

.


CONCLUSION: Speed/Bounce characteristics combination of Wimbledon grass is probably much different (slower) than in some of previous decades, but without any big and notable changes in comparation with previous Wimbledon 2007. Speed/Bounce combination which players still have at grass give them bigger advantage after serve than at US Open, and especialy than at AO or RG. Officials is again right. Like in Australian Open new surface case, when numbers confirm (whatever some of "experts" say) that no big difference at all in comparation with old Rebound Ace surface in terms of speed/bounce impacts on players game, only new Plexicushion surface is more secure for players health and better resistent on temperature changes. Here in Wimbledon 2008 acording to event statistics no serious indication that anything is changed (with grass) in comparation with previous season.

alwayshingis
Jul 14th, 2008, 07:45 PM
Numbers lie all the time.

They lie when they say there has been no significant change in service and return games won, but what those numbers don't tell you is:
-Who is winning and losing these games. Are traditional clay courters having more success?
-The mental side of this. It's clearly affecting the players because they are complaining about it, even if you don't see it in the numbers.

TheBoiledEgg
Jul 14th, 2008, 07:55 PM
ball is coming off the court 10mph slower at Wimbledon than it was about 5 yrs ago

its bouncing higher, and its taking topspin

thats much more important than all those figures

Cp6uja
Jul 14th, 2008, 08:03 PM
Numbers lie all the time.

They lie when they say there has been no significant change in service and return games won, but what those numbers don't tell you is:
-Who is winning and losing these games. Are traditional clay courters having more success?
-The mental side of this. It's clearly affecting the players because they are complaining about it, even if you don't see it in the numbers.More numbers - less chances for mistake, and this research is based on more than 200.000 single points from last 5 slams in both (ATP and WTA) competitions. After i see this results, for me no more mistery:

Wim/08 = Wim/07 > USO/07 > AO/08 > RG/08

in terms of Speed/Bounce "ADVANTAGE" influence.

Shvedbarilescu
Jul 14th, 2008, 08:04 PM
In january during Australian Open i have here research about new Plexicushion surface (http://www.tennisforum.com/showthread.php?t=329375) which they use since this season and compare official tournament stats with previous at Rebound Ace, and also with other slams. Today i doing same thing to check this summer popular theory about "New" Wimbledon Grass and like in Melbourne case - no sensational results... it's all pretty same.


Official stats (from official sites) of last five slams in mans competition
(Wimbledon 2008 and 2007, US Open 2007, Australian Open 2008 and Roland Garros 2008):
MANS COMPETITION Wi/08 Wi/07 USO/07 AO/08 RG/08
Matches Played 127 126 127 127 127
5 Set Matches 23 22 21 21 20
4 Set Matches 40 30 37 34 39
3 Set Matches 58 74 64 70 67
Sets Played 460 452 453 455 459
Tie Breaks Played 92 94 79 78 69
Total Games 4624 4554 4423 4400 4403
Winners 9772 9908 6415 5809 5046
Return Games Won 760 772 963 991 1021
Server Points Won 18737 18409 17326 17224 17400
Unforced Errors 5917 6274 5844 5809
Total Points 28449 28042 27413 27632 28050
First Serves In 17620 17992 16450 17003 17631
% 1st Serves In 61.9 64.2 60 61.5 62.9
Total Aces 2565 2399 2219 1963 1656
Total Double Faults 988 831 1044 906 758
1st Serve Pts Won 13087 13126 11762 11878 12094
% 1st Srv Pts Won 74.3 73 71.5 69.9 68.6
% 2nd Srv Pts Won 52.2 52.6 50.8 50.3 50.9





Official stats (from official sites) of last five slams in womans competition
(Wimbledon 2008 and 2007, US Open 2007, Australian Open 2008 and Roland Garros 2008):
WOMANS COMPETITION Wi/08 Wi/07 USO/07 AO/08 RG/08
Matches Played 126 127 127 127 127
3 Set Matches 44 36 25 36 43
2 Set Matches 82 91 102 90 84
Sets Played 296 290 279 288 297
Tie Breaks Played 34 22 17 23 26
Total Games 2838 2637 2463 2687 2690
Winners 5545 5404 3061 3228 2141
Return Games Won 890 813 857 1022 1020
Server Points Won 10776 9939 9132 9755 9930
Unforced Errors 4985 5059 4014 4732
Total Points 18585 17091 16176 17761 18095
First Serves In 11735 10889 9972 11162 11603
% 1st Serves In 63.1 63.7 61.6 62.8 64.1
Total Aces 686 727 582 534 515
Total Double Faults 884 828 803 909 831
1st Serve Pts Won 7585 7077 6278 6857 7084
% 1st Srv Pts Won 64.6 65 63 61.4 61.1
% 2nd Srv Pts Won 46.6 46.1 46 43.9 43.8




Speed/Bounces most related stats (in percentages) about court surface:
ATP GS tournaments
MANS COMPETITION Wi/08 Wi/07 USO/07 AO/08 RG/08
Return Games Won 16.77% 17.31% 22.17% 22.93% 23.56%
Server Points Won 65.86% 65.65% 63.2% 62.33% 62.03%
Total Aces 9.02% 8.56% 8.09% 7.1% 5.9%
1st Serve Pts Won 74.27% 72.95% 71.5% 69.86% 68.6%


WTA GS tournaments
WOMANS COMPETITION Wi/08 Wi/07 USO/07 AO/08 RG/08
Return Games Won 31.74% 31.09% 35.04% 38.36% 38.29%
Server Points Won 57.98% 58.15% 56.45% 54.92% 54.88%
Total Aces 3.69% 4.25% 3.6% 3.01% 2.85%
1st Serve Pts Won 64.64% 64.99% 62.96% 61.43% 61.05%

.


CONCLUSION: Speed/Bounce characteristics combination of Wimbledon grass is probably much different (slower) than in some of previous decades, but without any big and notable changes in comparation with previous Wimbledon 2007. Speed/Bounce combination which players still have at grass give them bigger advantage after serve than at US Open, and especialy than at AO or RG. Officials is again right. Like in Australian Open new surface case, when numbers confirm (whatever some of "experts" say) that no big difference at all in comparation with old Rebound Ace surface in terms of speed/bounce impacts on players game, only new Plexicushion surface is more secure for players health and better resistent on temperature changes. Here in Wimbledon 2008 acording to event statistics no serious indication that anything is changed (with grass) in comparation with previous season.

You provide a lot of very good stats. These particular stats are however of limited use. They do not reflect how the effectiveness of slice has dwindled on grass over the last 5 to 10 years. They do not reflect how much more difficult it is to come to the net either. They simply reflect that it is still slightly easier to hold serve at Wimbledon than in the other slams. I think most of us would already know that, because although the grass has slowed down a lot and is certainly playing slower than at the US Open, even on perfect 100% rye grass the bounce is never going to be as true as on a hard court and hence it will always be a little bit, just a little bit, harder to receive. This doesn't however in any way suggest the speed of the court is faster than the US Open.

Lunaris
Jul 14th, 2008, 08:05 PM
I appreciate your work Srbija, but this is not about Wimby 2007 but rather about 2001 and previous ones. 2007 grass is pretty much the same as the 2008 one, you don't need to be a genius to figure that out. This whole issue is more about the style of play than about numbers.

AndreConrad
Jul 14th, 2008, 08:08 PM
ball is coming off the court 10mph slower at Wimbledon than it was about 5 yrs ago

its bouncing higher, and its taking topspin

thats much more important than all those figures

Where did you get these numbers from?

Slutiana
Jul 14th, 2008, 08:17 PM
I appreciate your work Srbija, but this is not about Wimby 2007 but rather about 2001 and previous ones. 2007 grass is pretty much the same as the 2008 one, you don't need to be a genius to figure that out. This whole issue is more about the style of play than about numbers.
Well said.


Does this mean than Ana will win the Golden Slam and win 23 Slams? :eek:

Cp6uja
Jul 14th, 2008, 08:20 PM
ball is coming off the court 10mph slower at Wimbledon than it was about 5 yrs ago

its bouncing higher, and its taking topspin

thats much more important than all those figuresThis just means that "Wim/03 > Wim/08" and nothing else. Whatever is changes of ball speed or bounces, Wimbledon grass speed/bounce combination is still clearly way better advantage for player to hit ace, winner or hold they serve than at any other surface (including USO hardcourts).

TheBoiledEgg
Jul 14th, 2008, 08:40 PM
Where did you get these numbers from?

Hawkeye- they did it during BBC coverage at Wimby

SIN DIOS NI LEY
Jul 14th, 2008, 08:50 PM
These stats were made by a Fedtard

Wintermute
Jul 14th, 2008, 09:05 PM
Hawkeye- they did it during BBC coverage at Wimby
Yeah, I saw that. They did a very good graphical illustration of the different path that the ball takes compared to a few years ago. There is a noticeable difference.

Vamos.
Jul 14th, 2008, 09:08 PM
ball is coming off the court 10mph slower at Wimbledon than it was about 5 yrs ago

its bouncing higher, and its taking topspin

thats much more important than all those figures

Point being, it is not affecting that much.

Go cry over Fed some more.

FrOzon
Jul 14th, 2008, 11:16 PM
This just means that "Wim/03 > Wim/08" and nothing else. Whatever is changes of ball speed or bounces, Wimbledon grass speed/bounce combination is still clearly way better advantage for player to hit ace, winner or hold they serve than at any other surface (including USO hardcourts).

I've written it somewhere else: It doesn't have to mean Wim03 > Wim08! It was only one (!) measurement and are we sure that we had the same temperature at both days?

I think your numbers are telling more! And look at the finalists... of course they can play on every surface but they prefer faster courts!

debby
Jul 15th, 2008, 01:05 AM
about fed's serve :

before passing the net :

http://i49.servimg.com/u/f49/10/09/59/72/0111.jpg

after :

http://i49.servimg.com/u/f49/10/09/59/72/0210.jpg

and when the ball is bouncing :

http://i49.servimg.com/u/f49/10/09/59/72/0310.jpg


you can see that the ball bounces higher and is less fast than the one in 2003 ;) (10 mph less ! )

http://i49.servimg.com/u/f49/10/09/59/72/0410.jpg

this is not really the grass who has been slowed, but they changed the balls I think.

(all the credits at agassi.bb-fr.com , a french board :) )

A topic about Wimbledon's new grass ? Perfect ! I don't understand some things... let's go :)

(Out of subject : the people who think if Nadal has won, it was because of grass which had been slowed... you should make a comparison between Wimbledon's grass in 2001 (for example) and the one's from 2005, this is pretty more shocking than the parallel 2003-2008. ;) )

We are not on MTF, but on WTaworld (hem I mean tennisforum :o ), so what are the effects ? :shrug:

Venus has won in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007 and 2008... although she has won "only" two US Open...

Justine and Ana (last Roland Garros' champions) could/can succeed on grass but failed/fails against players who outplayed and outpowered them (I didn't see the whole match of Ana against Zheng but Zheng's game was so accurate and speedy) whereas the Williams still win there...
Ana has a big serve but she is far better in FO than in Wimbledon.. Let's see these stats, those who serve really well are advantaged by grass ... though Ana is better in Paris.

Do the stats really upset Wimbledon in terms of resultats (in WTA)? :shrug: I don't think so... some people (not necessary here) speak about Navratilova's era for example for saying she would be overwhelmed by the big babes but lot of people say also grass becomes like clay, and the big babes don't really succeed on clay, do they? :tape: ... Let's put in this way : Serena lost in third round against Srebotnik at French Open but reached the final in All England Club Lawn... How do you explain this?

Last year, against Nadal in final, Federer hit nearly 50 aces and serve winners... this year, nearly 25 aces and more serves winners :tape: and I think Nadal is one of the best returners . Though the exchanges between both players were longer than usual (I mean , in 2001, they lasted .. what 10 hits ? :tape: now 30 :eek: ) but we should remember only about that?

The real matter for WTA is the game-wise, its technicals skills... So many exchanges wasted by an UE :tape: In ATP, Federer has the BEST game, the most completed and Nadal doesn't have an uni-dimensional game ;) he is quite complete also.

At French Open, the ball bounces high (like in Wimbledon ATM) and takes more and more effects (slide, etc...) [Nadal didn't make an only double-fault during the whole tournament :help: or one.. but still :eek: ), I would say "Okay, you are right" if we only stared at Nadal and Federer but what can we say about women?


2006 : Nadal def. Federer -- Henin def. Kuznetsova
Federer def. Nadal - Mauresmo def. Henin

2007 : Nadal def. Federer -- Henin def. Ivanovic
Federer def. Nadal -- Venus def. Bartoli (who have previously defeated Ivanovic and Henin)

2008 : Nadal def. Federer -- Ivanovic def. Safina
Nadal def. Federer -- Venus def. Serena

Where were in BOTH ladies' events : Kuznetsova ? Mauresmo ? Bartoli ? Venus ? Serena ? Safina?

Also I want to add... What about Nicole Vaidisova? According to Cp6uja's stats, AO and RG have the slower courts and everybody knows Nicole Vaidisova's biggest weapon is her serve. And her biggest achievements at the moment in Slams were semi-finalist in Melbourne and Paris...

young_gunner913
Jul 15th, 2008, 01:12 AM
Who cares. :shrug: It's over.

debby
Jul 15th, 2008, 01:20 AM
Who cares. :shrug: It's over.

But Wimbledon will be back next year. ;)

SIN DIOS NI LEY
Jul 15th, 2008, 02:11 AM
Who cares. :shrug: It's over.

Bitter Fedtars :)

They are making excuses ;)

Cp6uja
Jul 15th, 2008, 02:27 AM
2 debby:

Nadal is already best claycourt player ever and fact that he won Wimbledon and played 3 times in the row Wimbledon final make people to think that something is wrong with new grass, not that Nadal is one very special player. BTW in past we already have Bjorn Borg which game very suits at both this tournaments (won 6 Wimbledons and 5 Roland Garros) but he never won US Open hardcourts. It's not so often that for some realy good claycourt players grass is next best surface (not Hardcourts or carpets) - but it simple happen sometimes.

Serve is weapon at all surfaces and Ivanovic and Vaidisova example is not good to prove anything. Almagro is currently most specialist claycourt player on tour, but he hit most aces at Roland Garros this season and many other good clay players is known also like very good servers. Ivanovic 2008 Wimbledon case is connected with her emotional emptiness after reaching first GS title in Paris (before Zheng, she only with lucky escape straight set lose against #90 Dechy in previous round). On other hand Vaidisova actualy played at Wimbledon/08 her seasons best tournament so far losing QF match in three sets and last season in same round she have 2MP's against Ivanovic to reach SF - so it's not truth that Wimbledon grass is Vaidisova worst surface.

And at end, talking about this "Hawk Eye" 2003-2008 presentation/comparation. It's not same if Federer choose slice, flat or spin serve, and that have big influence how balls will bounce. I'm intrigued why they choose Federer serve, not from any other player which is not so versatile server like Roger. But if they realy in both cases for demonstration use same type of Federer serve you must to know that if ball fly about 3/4 of distance with same 126mph speed than last about 1/4 after bounce slowed from 126 to 52 in one case and from 126 to 43 in other case - real difference in average speed is just about 1mph/1.5mph. Higher bounce is actualy more helpful, but like i already say in OP - results of this thread show very obvious that Wimbledon speed/bounce combination is still way best for player to hold they serve or to hit winner or ace than at any other surface. Also never dont forget that opponents movement on grass is more dificult than at HC's and that's why for example (except b/c bounce) volleyes is more efective.