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CanIGetAWhat
Jul 4th, 2008, 12:37 AM
Serena has narrow edge over Venus

Expect a slugfest from the baseline as sisters battle it out for title

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Anja Niedringhaus / AP

OPINION
By Tracy Austin
NBC Sports
updated 9 minutes ago

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Tracy Austin

WIMBLEDON, England - So Wimbledon has its first Williams family final since 2003 Ė a very appealing matchup between two sisters who have been the class of the ladiesí field this fortnight but now that they go against each other, itís younger sister Serena who rates a slight advantage over older sister Venus.

I take that position based solely on Serenaís serve. Little sis is serving incredibly well on the lawns. In her 6-2, 7-6 semifinal victory over Zheng Jie of China she served 14 aces and 34 serves that Zheng couldnít return -- thatís an incredible 48 free points won without a ball coming back. Also the challenge Zheng put forth in the second set was important for Serena in that her surviving it only boosts her confidence going into the final.

The title match is going to be decided be several key factors: 1) which sister is serving better, 2) which sister is posting more winners, and 3) which sister is keeping her unforced error count as low as possible.

Neither Venus nor Serena is going to be chipping and charging, serving and volleying, changing their rhythm by using drop shots and slices -- thatís just not their style of play. I anticipate the match will be a slugfest from the baseline.

Venus and Serena have played 15 times during their careers dating back to their first match in the third round of the 1998 Australian Open. Serena has a slight 8-7 edge and has beaten Venus five of the six times they have met in the final of a major Ė including twice at Wimbledon in 2002 and 2003.

In fairness it must be mentioned that Venus played the 2003 grass court final with an abdominal strain that limited her movement and had her in pain and in 2002 Serena revealed after their match that Venusí right shoulder was giving her discomfort, perhaps a factor in her less-than-overpowering display on her serve (Venus only topped 105 mph a handful of times).

Both Serena and Venus possess outstanding serves. Serena has better placement with her serve and the better second serve but Venus has the more powerful first serve and she can crank them up to 126 mph with relative ease.

Itís hard to bet against either sister from the ground as they both certainly pack a wallop with their ability to battle from the baseline. As for the action at the net, Venus is a little more comfortable being front-and-center. Both players are usually successful when they come into the net and I would love to see them approach more often than they do.

As for their vulnerabilities they both lack the consistency they used to show a number of years ago. They are not factors tournament to tournament as they were earlier in their careers. This means their former aura of invincibility has dissipated with opponents feeling they now have more of a chance against both Venus and Serena.

What can be underestimated is the impact to there being so much emotion present when the Williams sisters meet -- especially when the match they play is for the biggest title in the world. I come from a tennis family but never had to experience what Venus and Serena have to face in taking on a sibling in such a high-stakes encounter. I can only imagine how difficult it must be to play someone you love and care about so much, yet you want to defeat on a particular day for the most coveted trophy in tennis.

This dynamic puts Venus and Serena in a very peculiar situation but I know if you ask them they always say that if they have to lose, theyíd rather lost to each other. Itís a very different situation in sports to play against someone you know so well as your own sister. There are no secrets, there are no tricks and I suspect Venus and Serena can on nearly every shot practically predict where each is going to attempt to hit the ball.

Iím absolutely sure that itís a pleasure for their parents to be able to sit in the stands and be so proud of their two daughters playing in the Wimbledon final. But on the converse side, I can only imagine the intense anxiety for the family to have to be neutral while the match unfolds. From what I understand their father, Richard Williams, will not be on hand when they play for the title as he finds the situation too unbearable to watch in person.

A sensitive issue that usually gets discussed as it has at Wimbledon is when Venus and Serena reach a final at the same tournament is there a predetermined outcome. There are those that have the perception the family actually determines in advance who is going to win the matches when the sisters play against each other. That was a topic often brought up early in their careers but it should be long dismissed by now.

Anyone who wouldíve seen how huffy Serena became the other day when a member of the media said that many consider Venus the favorite would know better than to think anything is pre-arranged. Serena was really bothered by that question and while it may be an unspoken competition between the two, there is indeed a rivalry and neither one of them is giving in to the other anytime they face off.

Just to reiterate the numbers: Serena has an edge of 8-7 in their matches, 5-4 in Grand Slam matches, 5-1 in Grand Slam finals and 2-1 at Wimbledon. The notion that they somehow conspire to decide the outcomes of their head-to-head matches in advance is ridiculous. I know they both really want to win this title. And anyone who believes that there is even a remote possibility they get together to decide how things should play out should make note of their most recent encounter in the Bangalore, India semifinal this year where both had match points before the match was eventually decided in Serenaís favor in a third-set tiebreaker.

The sisters might be uncomfortable playing each other -- which is not that far-fetched to understand -- and that might not always make for the best tennis but weíve also seen many finals in the majors between non-siblings that havenít exactly set the world on fire. Venus and Serena are out there trying their best and they shouldnít be faulted if they donít always put on the best show when going against each other.

© 2008 NBC Sports

Calvin M.
Jul 4th, 2008, 12:39 AM
Agreed but I'm not counting big sis out. It is Wimbledon after all. haha

C'mon Serena. Take this!

Uranium
Jul 4th, 2008, 12:40 AM
the kiss of death for Serena

Venus will win now...

Tracy said Maria would beat Serena in last year's AO, and now Serena beats Venus here, I wonder....

Craig.
Jul 4th, 2008, 12:41 AM
Can anyone summarize that article for me? That is just WAY too long for me to read :lol:

Tennisation
Jul 4th, 2008, 12:42 AM
Venus Williams Wimbledon Champion 2008:worship:

the cat
Jul 4th, 2008, 12:43 AM
the kiss of death for Serena

Venus will win now...

Tracy said Maria would beat Serena in last year's AO, and now Serena beats Venus here, I wonder....
Tracy also said Maria Sharapova would upset Serena in the 2004 Wimbledon final. And she was right. That prediction surprised John McEnroe. So Tracy Austin isn't always wrong. ;)

Wannabeknowitall
Jul 4th, 2008, 12:50 AM
She's right this time.

It is all up to the serve and the fact of the matter is that Serena is the one who continues to get better when it comes to her serves.

Serena has the flat serve, the kick serve, and the slice serve.

Venus just has the flat and slice.

That kick serve is so important when it comes to the second serve. Serena can go for 100+ mph second serves with a kick with no worries.

So Serena serves a few mphs less than Venus, she can afford to with her variety.

dansnewbeg
Jul 4th, 2008, 12:58 AM
either way, Tracy Austin will be accused of betting against a Williams sister LOL.

I hope Venus takes it myself, but I believe Serena is just plain better in Grand Slam finals.

MrSerenaWilliams
Jul 4th, 2008, 01:07 AM
Serena's 2nd Serve is what's going to win it for her :yeah:

tennisIlove09
Jul 4th, 2008, 01:11 AM
Serena's 2nd Serve is what's going to win it for her :yeah:

Really? Venus has been winning more points (or at least her percentage is higher) than Serena in every match, except the semi final.

Tennisation
Jul 4th, 2008, 01:16 AM
may the best dressed win:worship:

Wannabeknowitall
Jul 4th, 2008, 01:22 AM
Really? Venus has been winning more points (or at least her percentage is higher) than Serena in every match, except the semi final.

Hilarious.

The fact that Venus didn't play a top 20 player until the semis really might have something to do with that stat but you know whatever makes Venus look good I guess.

tennisIlove09
Jul 4th, 2008, 01:29 AM
Hilarious.

The fact that Venus didn't play a top 20 player until the semis really might have something to do with that stat but you know whatever makes Venus look good I guess.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the only top 20 Serena played was Radwanska :)

ladydiana
Jul 4th, 2008, 01:41 AM
Venus is gonna beat Serena easily. Like Johnny Mac said. The kick serve is not the best serve on grass. It's the fast slice that Venus serves and it slides away from the opponent.

Venus was suffering from an abdominal injury in their last match and Serena barely won that game. And if they slug it out from the baseline, Venus is gonna kill Serena because she can run side-to-side.

Ji Zheng was able to almost win the second set because she was running Serena side-to-side. It was Serena's serve that saved her. But Venus can return Serena's serves just like Justine and Amelie were doing.

Venus is gonna win in 2 sets. 6-2, 6-3. Serena does not want to get in a baseline rally with Venus because Venus can hit on the run and she can't.

Serena wins all of her points from being able to just stand on the baseline and hit winners. Well she can't just do that against Venus.

What happened 5 years ago is irrelevant now. Venus is ready to assume her rightful position because she does have the better game.

Serena can't make the same kind of shots on the grass like Venus.

Chunchun
Jul 4th, 2008, 01:58 AM
"The title match is going to be decided be several key factors: 1) which sister is serving better, 2) which sister is posting more winners, and 3) which sister is keeping her unforced error count as low as possible. "

This sentence is totally crapness and pointless :haha: :haha: I stop reading when I saw that. :haha:

Wannabeknowitall
Jul 4th, 2008, 02:00 AM
Venus is gonna beat Serena easily. Like Johnny Mac said. The kick serve is not the best serve on grass. It's the fast slice that Venus serves and it slides away from the opponent.

Serena can't make the same kind of shots on the grass like Venus.

The same Johnny Mac that said that Andy had a great draw but couldn't see Tipsarevic as the threat he really is even though Tipsy took Federer to 8-6 in the 5th at the Australian just 5 months ago.
:lol:

This is who you're depending on.
The same one that mentioned that Schuettler isn't the same player he was 5 years ago and that James Blake would crush him and now Schuettler is in the semis of a slam and playing like he did 5 years ago unlike James who has never made a slam semis.

I mean I could go on and on about Johnny's dumbass predictions over the forenite but that wouldn't be fun.
I've made much money doing the opposite of what Johnny says so i doubt I would change my attitude now.

Serena isn't depending on a kick serve, she's using the slice and Mary Carillo is so happy that she's using it consistently.

The fact is like a Nadal a kick serve as a second serve still works well on grass because you have enough margin of error to go for a serve in the 100 mph range and still get it above the shoulders of a player on grass.

They can't attack it and dominate that rally.

Nadal has used it as a second serve even on break points and in the last match he only lost 10 points on serve.

It will come in handy against Federer even on this surface just as Serena's kick will come in handy against Venus.

50Sense
Jul 4th, 2008, 02:35 AM
From our collective knowledge of the WS, we all know that oftenttimes, what happens between R1-SF means absolutely nothing ina final. SO we'll see. Tracy acn have her opinion.

gmokb
Jul 4th, 2008, 02:42 AM
I hardly pay any attention to these sports writers predictions, most didn't have one much less two WS in the finals nor to win.

ladydiana
Jul 4th, 2008, 03:10 AM
I think Bud Collins predictions are gonna be right this time. He said that Rafa would win and that Venus is gonna beat Serena this time.

And he's right.

Miss Amor
Jul 4th, 2008, 06:52 AM
tracy did the job for venus...gratz vee on the title :)

Wannabeknowitall
Jul 5th, 2008, 02:38 PM
Venus is gonna beat Serena easily. Like Johnny Mac said. The kick serve is not the best serve on grass. It's the fast slice that Venus serves and it slides away from the opponent.



Why don't you just admit already that neither you or Johnny Mac know shit about women's tennis.
:haha: :lol:

Selah
Jul 5th, 2008, 03:59 PM
Who continually pays Tracey to state the obvious:confused:

In The Zone
Jul 5th, 2008, 04:18 PM
What a surprise. Tracy Austin wrong AGAIN.

vesanto
Jul 5th, 2008, 04:51 PM
"The title match is going to be decided be several key factors: 1) which sister is serving better, 2) which sister is posting more winners, and 3) which sister is keeping her unforced error count as low as possible. "

This sentence is totally crapness and pointless :haha: :haha: I stop reading when I saw that. :haha:

Exactly, when I read that I was like: "Really, what a smart analysis, no one could imagine that!" :tape:

hablo
Jul 5th, 2008, 05:01 PM
Serena's 2nd Serve is what's going to win it for her :yeah:

Not this time. :p

Venus is gonna beat Serena easily. Like Johnny Mac said. The kick serve is not the best serve on grass. It's the fast slice that Venus serves and it slides away from the opponent.

Venus was suffering from an abdominal injury in their last match and Serena barely won that game. And if they slug it out from the baseline, Venus is gonna kill Serena because she can run side-to-side.

Ji Zheng was able to almost win the second set because she was running Serena side-to-side. It was Serena's serve that saved her. But Venus can return Serena's serves just like Justine and Amelie were doing.

Venus is gonna win in 2 sets. 6-2, 6-3. Serena does not want to get in a baseline rally with Venus because Venus can hit on the run and she can't.

Serena wins all of her points from being able to just stand on the baseline and hit winners. Well she can't just do that against Venus.

What happened 5 years ago is irrelevant now. Venus is ready to assume her rightful position because she does have the better game.

Serena can't make the same kind of shots on the grass like Venus.

Spot on. ;)