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DaMamaJama87
May 4th, 2008, 11:36 PM
Tory victory at next general election 'likely'
By Stephen Fisher
Last Updated: 11:43PM BST 02/05/2008
Labour did so badly and the Conservatives so well in the local elections that comparable historical benchmarks are practically exhausted.
David Cameron and Boris Johnson
PA
The Conservatives have dealt Labour a heavy blow

With only 24 per cent in the BBC projected national share of the vote, Labour suffered their lowest share since this kind of exercise in the early 1980s.

Not only has Gordon Brown done worse than Michael Foot, but you need to go back to the late 1960s to find a result that looks worse for Labour.

The Conservative share, at 44 per cent, is its greatest for the last quarter century, excepting 1992, when the conjunction of the local and general elections gave the Tory local share a substantial boost.
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So do these results herald a Conservative victory at the next election?

Comparison with the 1990s suggests yes.

The Labour share this year is marginally lower than the worst result the Conservatives ever suffered under John Major.

In terms of the relative standing of the two major parties, this year looks like the reverse of 1995, when the then new Labour leader, Tony Blair, achieved a projected national share of the vote of 46 per cent and the Tories a dismal 25 per cent.

That result was followed by a similar one in the 1996 local elections and a Labour landslide in the general election.

But the link between local and general election performance is far from straightforward.

After all, Labour’s 2004 local election share of 26 was, as this year, comfortably its worst since records began, and yet they went on win the 2005 election with a comfortable majority.

The key difference between then and now is that the Tories then were much weaker, with only 38 per cent of the 2004 local vote share, whereas now they are much stronger in both local election performance and the opinion polls.

Moreover, unlike in some recent local elections, the Conservative’s advances were not confined to their heartlands.

Labour were fortunate indeed to win a general election on 36 per cent of the vote, and it is unlikely to happen again in face of rejuvenated Tory party.

The Liberal Democrats consistently do about 10 percentage points better in their local election share compared with their general election or poll performance, but they tend to rise and fall together.

This year marks a continued steady decline since their local election share of the vote since the record high of 29 per cent in both 2003 and 2004. This dropped to 27 per cent in 2006, 26 per cent in 2007, and 25 per cent this year.

This is not the only sign that electoral consequences of the Iraq war might be fading. Wards with high proportions of Muslims, which swung heavily away from the government in 2003 and 2004, seem to be returning to Labour.

If, alternatively, the decline in the Liberal Democrat’s share of the vote is due to the quality of its leaders, by doing worse than Ming Campbell, this year’s result is not good for Nick Clegg.

His saving grace is that, by offsetting loses to the Tories with gains from Labour, his party experienced little net change in the number of their councils or councillors.

Stephen Fisher is a lecturer in political sociology at the University of Oxford

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Finally, it looks like a return to goverment with some sense.

Chris 84
May 4th, 2008, 11:41 PM
Labour? Socialism? :haha:

I don't really know how anyone can call a right of centre political party "socialist". For example, their income tax is way less progressive than the income tax that Thatcher's Tories used for many years :lol:

DaMamaJama87
May 4th, 2008, 11:45 PM
Labour? Socialism? :haha:

I don't really know how anyone can call a right of centre political party "socialist". For example, their income tax is way less progressive than the income tax that Thatcher's Tories used for many years :lol:

How skewed your political compass must be :tape:

I bet you don't consider Stalin left wing either :help:

Olórin
May 4th, 2008, 11:50 PM
Typical pile of nonsense from an Oxford don stuck in his ivory tower. Was probably born into the Conservative Party and will die in it. The Conservatives have very little substance currently imo. They are benefitting from Labour's blundering more than their own capabilities. What solid policies they do have are similar to Labour's, all pretty near the centre in any case.

Edward.
May 4th, 2008, 11:56 PM
The thought of that posh right-wing moron Cameron running this country makes me want to move to the USA more than ever. Especially if Obama becomes President.

Chris 84
May 5th, 2008, 12:01 AM
How skewed your political compass must be :tape:

I bet you don't consider Stalin left wing either :help:

People who call this Labour administration's government of the UK since 1997 "socialist" clearly don't understand the term at all. You should know what these long, fancy words actually mean before using them :)

DaMamaJama87
May 5th, 2008, 12:10 AM
Oh please, just because Tony Blair injected a little common sense into Labours old loony policies doesn't mean that they are no more socialists. Just look at Ken Livingstone's economy destroying measures in London or that ridiculous 10p tax. They're still as red as ever under Gordon Brown.

DaMamaJama87
May 5th, 2008, 12:13 AM
Typical pile of nonsense from an Oxford don stuck in his ivory tower. Was probably born into the Conservative Party and will die in it. The Conservatives have very little substance currently imo. They are benefitting from Labour's blundering more than their own capabilities. What solid policies they do have are similar to Labour's, all pretty near the centre in any case.

Really? How is it that all those horrible conservatives were smart enough to get into Oxford and you weren't? :tape:

Sean.
May 5th, 2008, 12:18 AM
Labour? Socialism? :haha:

I don't really know how anyone can call a right of centre political party "socialist". For example, their income tax is way less progressive than the income tax that Thatcher's Tories used for many years :lol:

Labour is left wing:rolleyes:

Just because Blair took steps to move it toward the center does not noe mean it's right wing. Though I agree socialist is too far.

Typical pile of nonsense from an Oxford don stuck in his ivory tower. Was probably born into the Conservative Party and will die in it. The Conservatives have very little substance currently imo. They are benefitting from Labour's blundering more than their own capabilities. What solid policies they do have are similar to Labour's, all pretty near the centre in any case.

You don't make to many policies in opposition. Only at general election time, else they can be copied (inheritance tax).

The lead would be even greater if Scottland and Wales acheieve independance. But lot can happen between now and the general election. 'don't count your eggs until their in the basket'.

Still it is good to see an increased turnout

Olórin
May 5th, 2008, 12:33 AM
Really? How is it that all those horrible conservatives were smart enough to get into Oxford and you weren't? :tape:

I do go to Oxford, I'm surrounded by them :lol:

I absolutely hate the academic snobbery though, I'm in St.Anne's which is one of the more modern and larger colleges. Nice comeback btw :rolleyes:

Olórin
May 5th, 2008, 12:37 AM
You don't make to many policies in opposition. Only at general election time, else they can be copied (inheritance tax).

The lead would be even greater if Scottland and Wales acheieve independance. But lot can happen between now and the general election. 'don't count your eggs until their in the basket'.

Still it is good to see an increased turnout


True, you don't make too many policies, however that doesn't really lessen my point that the conservatives are more style than substance. It's true they are there to act as a check on the government, but they are also obliged to pose as a viable alternative government, which I don't think they are doing yet.

saint2
May 5th, 2008, 05:29 AM
I remember a debate rfew years ago between some Labour guy and some Tory guy. Wnen Labour said that GB must reduce spending, cos itts the only way to cut taxes, Tory said that this is not possible, than government is to help people, etc.- no comments. Today Tory are more on the left than Labour, so it basicly dont matter who will win election.

I don't really know how anyone can call a right of centre political party "socialist".

How can You call Blair, one of godfathers of Treaty Of Lisbon, a "right centre" ?

. For example, their income tax is way less progressive than the income tax that Thatcher's Tories used for many years

tragedy...:sad::sad:

gentenaire
May 5th, 2008, 05:56 AM
Don't you just love all those theories every time a party loses an election. The same reasons people use to stop voting labour, people here use to stop voting right wing.

At the end of the day, it's normal that votes swing away from the ruling party. The ruling party is punished in elections, other party gets big victory, enough to last another election, then they're punished and the other party wins big. In about 8 years time, the tories will lose again. That's politics.

Kart
May 5th, 2008, 09:26 PM
I do go to Oxford, I'm surrounded by them :lol:

:lol::worship:

It never ceases to amaze me how people that aren't in the UK seem to be such experts on how much better for us the conservatives are going to be.

Conservatives probably are going to win the next election at this rate.

Still, I suppose they might steal a bit of the BNP vote so it's not all bad news.

fifiricci
May 7th, 2008, 11:47 AM
:lol::worship:

It never ceases to amaze me how people that aren't in the UK seem to be such experts on how much better for us the conservatives are going to be.

Conservatives probably are going to win the next election at this rate.

Still, I suppose they might steal a bit of the BNP vote so it's not all bad news.

Quite! Frankly, there's nothing socialist at all about labour these days. Being a child of the dreaded Thatcher year's, I've voted labour all my life. But never again. Not after Iraq and the abolition of the 10p tax rate. How anyone can argue that labour are the party for the common people of this country after abolishing the 10p tax rate is beyond me. If labour needed to raise more revenue from tax, why didn't they lower the threshold for the 40% tax rate? Only people who earn well over £30,000 a year will feel that. In my view, that's what a party truly driven by socialism would have done.
And yes, it would be nice if some people didn't claim to be experts on our politicial system based on their knowledge from a few academic articles ............... especially some of our cousins from over the pond who have a completely hysterical and irrational fear of "socialism" ....... :help:

Philbo
May 7th, 2008, 02:16 PM
I do go to Oxford, I'm surrounded by them :lol:

I absolutely hate the academic snobbery though, I'm in St.Anne's which is one of the more modern and larger colleges. Nice comeback btw :rolleyes:

LOL - Completely owned!!!

Philbo
May 7th, 2008, 02:17 PM
Quite! Frankly, there's nothing socialist at all about labour these days. Being a child of the dreaded Thatcher year's, I've voted labour all my life. But never again. Not after Iraq and the abolition of the 10p tax rate. How anyone can argue that labour are the party for the common people of this country after abolishing the 10p tax rate is beyond me. If labour needed to raise more revenue from tax, why didn't they lower the threshold for the 40% tax rate? Only people who earn well over £30,000 a year will feel that. In my view, that's what a party truly driven by socialism would have done.
And yes, it would be nice if some people didn't claim to be experts on our politicial system based on their knowledge from a few academic articles ............... especially some of our cousins from over the pond who have a completely hysterical and irrational fear of "socialism" ....... :help:

Exactly... The canadian health system is a socialist system if we're gonna be that loose with the word. As is their socialised Fire Fighters, Cops, Ambulances etc etc...

saint2
May 7th, 2008, 02:32 PM
Quite! Frankly, there's nothing socialist at all about labour these days.

Nothing socialist at all? You are trying to tell me that GB under Labours banned income tax?

I do go to Oxford, I'm surrounded by them

I absolutely hate the academic snobbery though, I'm in St.Anne's which is one of the more modern and larger colleges. Nice comeback btw

Strrange..In the place where I live unicversity snobs votes for liberals. Streets votes for cons...

Chris 84
May 7th, 2008, 02:35 PM
Nothing socialist at all? You are trying to tell me that GB under Labours banned income tax?

So every country with income tax is socialist? :haha:
Why do you insist on expressing your views on politics when it is clearly a subject that you know nothing about? :tape:

saint2
May 7th, 2008, 02:38 PM
So every country with income tax is socialist?

Basically...Yes...

Why do you insist on expressing your views on politics when it is clearly a subject that you know nothing about?

rotfl. Said who claimed Democrat Party in USA as "centre right"...

samsung101
May 7th, 2008, 05:10 PM
I don't think a Maggie Thatcher is in the picture these days.

Just as Bush and McCain are not Reagan. The party changed, even
with a still strong conservative wing.

The liberals in England had Tony Blair who was a moderate at best.
Not Livingston. He turned out more votes for the conservatives than
their own guy did.....just by being an over the top Hugo Chaves hugging liberal
nut job.


Gordon Brown is just so boring. He makes Bush look and sound eloquent. At least,
Bush is personable, and can laugh at himself. Brown looks like he's in pain all the time.

The economy is killing Labour. The same issues other euro nations are facing, and they're
going more to the middle and right because of it. That, and illegal immigration.


But, it is interesting to see more conservative type officials being elected
in Europe. Just as the USA is ready to take a huge turn to the left of left with
Barack Hussein Obama as Presidnet. Of course, we're telling ourselves he's just
the guy for change, and he's not left or right....yeah, sure. He's a very liberal
Democrat and we seem to want to raise our taxes on ourselves across the board, and
open our borders even more. So, we'll be very happy then! Sidewalks will be golden,
gumdrops will fall from the sky, and the news will be positive all the time. Great!

samsung101
May 7th, 2008, 05:13 PM
The Democrats are not center right.

Howard Dean.
Barack Obama.
Hillary Clinton.
Ted Kennedy.
Jessie Jackson.
Barbara Boxer.

Where do you see anything moderate in that group?

Moveon.org and George Soros control the Democratic Party
activist wing, and the cash flow....they're not moderate
on anything, they would be insulted to be considered
'right' on anything.

Progressive is the preferred term to liberal, that sounds nicer
to them.

The USA Democratic Party powerbrokers are very liberal.

The USA Republican Party powerbrokers now are moderate to liberal Republicans...more
Hagel and McCain, than Reagan or Bush, Jr.'s 1st term.

Edward.
May 7th, 2008, 05:27 PM
I don't think a Maggie Thatcher is in the picture these days.

Just as Bush and McCain are not Reagan. The party changed, even
with a still strong conservative wing.

The liberals in England had Tony Blair who was a moderate at best.
Not Livingston. He turned out more votes for the conservatives than
their own guy did.....just by being an over the top Hugo Chaves hugging liberal
nut job.


Gordon Brown is just so boring. He makes Bush look and sound eloquent. At least,
Bush is personable, and can laugh at himself. Brown looks like he's in pain all the time.

The economy is killing Labour. The same issues other euro nations are facing, and they're
going more to the middle and right because of it. That, and illegal immigration.


But, it is interesting to see more conservative type officials being elected
in Europe. Just as the USA is ready to take a huge turn to the left of left with
Barack Hussein Obama as Presidnet. Of course, we're telling ourselves he's just
the guy for change, and he's not left or right....yeah, sure. He's a very liberal
Democrat and we seem to want to raise our taxes on ourselves across the board, and
open our borders even more. So, we'll be very happy then! Sidewalks will be golden,
gumdrops will fall from the sky, and the news will be positive all the time. Great!

This isn't a thread for you to vent your hatred of Barack Obama.

Why do you never make any sense, and feel the need to weigh the board down with your endless unmitigated bullshit? :weirdo: