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mykarma
Apr 30th, 2008, 06:39 PM
http://www.spiegel.de/static/sys/v8/headlines/spiegelonline_print.gif (http://www.spiegel.de/) SPIEGEL ONLINE


http://spiegel.ivwbox.de/cgi-bin/ivw/CP/1182;/international/world/c-676/r-4705/k-7209/p-druckversion/a-550351/be-PB64-aW50ZXJuYXRpb25hbC9hcnRpa2Vs/szwprofil-1182?r=http%3A//www.spiegel.de/international/world/0%2C1518%2C550351%2C00.html&d=11853.637648322534 http://spiegel.ivwbox.de/cgi-bin/ivw/CP/1182;/international/world/c-676/r-4705/k-7209/p-druckversion/a-550351/be-PB64-aW50ZXJuYXRpb25hbC9hcnRpa2Vs/szwprofil-1182?d=72554606 http://www.spiegel.de/cgi-bin/vdz/CP/spiegel/international/world/c-676/r-4705/k-7209/p-druckversion/a-550351/be-PB64-aW50ZXJuYXRpb25hbC9hcnRpa2Vs/szwprofil-1182 http://pistat.spiegel.de/pistats/cgi-bin/s-1/c-676/r-4705/atyp-1/aid-550351/df-druck/be-PB64-aW50ZXJuYXRpb25hbC9hcnRpa2Vs/szw-1182/?d=25727.987532190855 http://pistat.spiegel.de/pistats/cgi-bin/s-1/c-676/r-4705/atyp-1/aid-550351/df-druck/be-PB64-aW50ZXJuYXRpb25hbC9hcnRpa2Vs/szw-1182/?d=-1789043012
04/29/2008 01:18 PM


WEST WING

Obama the Inevitable

By Gabor Steingart (gabor_steingart@yahoo.com) in Washington
The issue of race has emerged as the key Democratic divide in this year's primary season. Despite his waning support amongst white voters, though, the superdelegates appear to have no other choice but to vote for Barack Obama. A vote against him could have serious consequences.

http://www.spiegel.de/img/0,1020,1164870,00.jpg AP
Will Obama become a victim of the Bradley effect? In recent days, the Democratic Party establishment has been debating his electability.


There is a phenomenon in opinion research called the Bradley effect, named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley. When Bradley, who was black, ran to become governor of California in 1982, he was the frontrunner in all opinion polls until the very end of the campaign. But he lost on election day.
Since then, the term has been used to denote a serious shift in voter preferences caused by racial prejudice against a candidate -- prejudice that voters would never admit openly, but then express in all secrecy in the voting booth.

A more intense version of the Bradley effect has taken shape within the Democratic Party in 2008. "There is no white America," Barack Obama has said. "There is no black America. There is no Latino America. There is no Asian America. There is just the United States of America." Many prominent politicians of all skin colors, from New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson to Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy to Jesse Jackson, seem to agree with him. But the public euphoria is increasingly bumping up against the resistance of ordinary Democratic voters.


Within the Democratic Party, which likes to call itself the "party of the people," cheering on and voting for a candidate appear to be two very different things. Voters who say in public that they are inspired are sometimes quick to change their minds and settle scores in the election booth. In fact, perhaps the Bradley effect should be renamed the Obama effect.

A Uniter who Divides the Party
A significant segment of ordinary, middle-class Democrats, especially blue-collar workers and retirees, vote along racial and ethnic lines. The questions that interest them are politically relevant, but not politically correct. Is Obama an American with black skin color or a black man with an American passport? Is he a stranger or does he just seem like one? Is he part of the whole or just part of a segment of society? Ironically, the one candidate who is campaigning as a uniter appears to be dividing the party -- so much so, in fact, that the party establishment has spent the last few days debating Obama's electability.

http://www.spiegel.de/img/0,1020,1166236,00.jpg AP
The superdelegates now have no choice but to pick Obama.


When there was still something playful about the Obama euphoria, significant numbers of whites were voting for the black candidate and blacks for the white candidate. Obama found strong support among white voters in the Democratic primaries in Iowa, Kansas, Idaho and Colorado. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, captured the votes of many African Americans. But this lightness has now vanished, and animosity and open hostility amongst the electorate have taken its place.

The Democratic divide has become all the more apparent in states with large blue-collar populations, like Ohio and Pennsylvania, even to those who until then had believed that the entire country had succumbed to what had been described as Obama's "messiah factor." In Ohio, as in Pennsylvania, an overwhelming majority of white, blue-collar workers voted for Clinton. By the same token, a huge majority of African Americans voted for Obama.

Growing Disenchantment
It seems as if the majority of African Americans are now forming a barricade around Obama in the increasingly heated primary battle. The Clintons have ripped open the divide with their clearly ambiguous remarks, and the Obamas have only widened that divide. One of the reasons that the hate-filled sermons coming from Reverend Jeremiah Wright (http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,471221,00.html), with his suggestion that "God damn America," were so troubling was that Obama had called him his "spiritual mentor" in the past. And it didn't help when Obama's wife Michelle said that her husband's bid to become president had made her proud, for the first time in her adult life, to be an American. Though refreshingly open, the statement was also politically nave.


Reverand Wright certainly complicated matters for Obama this week with his rehabilitation tour (http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,550353,00.html). He has once again energized the black and white debate -- only this time to the detriment of the Illionois Senator. Wright, though isn't the main force driving white voters' away from the Obama camp. The trend coincides with white voters' growing disenchantment with the candidate. His message of hope and change is beginning to sound like a broken record. Phrases like "We are the ones we've been waiting for" sound lofty at first, but they eventually lose their appeal.


Nevertheless, the debate that has now begun comes too late for Hillary Clinton. The superdelegates, who can vote for the candidate of their choice without taking voter preferences into account, in fact have no other choice but to nominate Obama. They will have to suppress the growing fear that the Democrats cannot win the election against Republican candidate John McCain in November if Obama is their candidate. Still, as long as Obama can hold onto his slight lead in the number of pledged delegates, he will be the inevitable candidate. In fact, there is now almost a national political obligation to nominate Obama. A vote by superdelegates against Obama would set off shock waves within American society, with incalculable consequences. Young people would be outraged, intellectuals would be bitter and violence could erupt in predominantly black urban neighborhoods around the country.
America's not Burning, but it Is Smoldering
An apparent rejection of her black rival would also do more to harm Hillary Clinton than help her campaign. A candidacy against the background of angry youth or even burning barricades would be of little value. Thus, it is not Obama himself who now offers the strongest argument for his nomination, but the history of his ancestors. In fact, with his history standing at his side, Obama hardly needs to try any longer. This history peers into the present, sadly and silently, from a time we commonly call the past. And yet this is a past that America cannot seem to shake.

It was only 144 years ago that the American South fought a civil war to defend its right to slavery. Civil rights activist Martin Luther King was assassinated 40 years ago. Twenty years ago, black presidential candidate Jesse Jackson failed in the primaries because he was unable to gain the support of white Democrats. Racial barriers have been lowered since then, but they have not disappeared altogether.


It may not be burning, but it is smoldering in America. After seven years of George W. Bush, the Democratic Party has vowed to reconcile the country with itself. And now it will at least have to try, even if it means losing the presidency.
To reach the author and join the discussion, please visit GaborSteingart.com (http://www.gaborsteingart.com/).



SPIEGEL ONLINE 2008
All Rights Reserved
Reproduction only allowed with the permission of SPIEGELnet GmbH

BigB08822
Apr 30th, 2008, 07:44 PM
A vote by superdelegates against Obama would set off shock waves within American society, with incalculable consequences. Young people would be outraged, intellectuals would be bitter and violence could erupt in predominantly black urban neighborhoods around the country.

What did Obama's camp call this when Hillary was doing it, Kitchen Sink Politics? Now his people are using the same tactic to defend why he should be nominated over Hillary. Do people forget that Hillary is a woman and is being discriminated against also? Why don't people say that if she isn't elected then it is a slap in the face of women everywhere, of every color? Why do they have to mention that blacks will start riots, that almost seems racist and stereotypical!

Direwolf
Apr 30th, 2008, 07:48 PM
:worship::worship:

to the poster who pointed this out first!!!

i thought i read this from a poster here before...

Stamp Paid
Apr 30th, 2008, 07:49 PM
Black people are not going to riot if Obama does not get the nomination. They are going to do something way more damaging...stay home from the polls in November.

And I predict the Bradley effect will be renamed the Obama effect should Barack get the nomination. Unless he can find a way to unalienate white working-class voters. And I dont see him becoming less black between now and November, especially with his crackhead Uncle (Rev. Wright) coming out of the closet in full force. I was surprised at how many white Democrats in Pennsylvania said that race was a factor in their voting choices....especially since these were northern Democrats.

Pureracket
Apr 30th, 2008, 07:55 PM
[/b]

What did Obama's camp call this when Hillary was doing it, Kitchen Sink Politics? Now his people are using the same tactic to defend why he should be nominated over Hillary. Do people forget that Hillary is a woman and is being discriminated against also? Why don't people say that if she isn't elected then it is a slap in the face of women everywhere, of every color? Why do they have to mention that blacks will start riots, that almost seems racist and stereotypical!Maybe you can answer the question as why you don't think women will riot in predominantly female based areas. Also, maybe there's a warning in some article about Hillary that is saying something about Obama losing the female vote. Who knows.

The bigger question is: Why are you almost insisting that an article on Obama obligatorily focus on information about HRC? That since of entitlement is what have turned most people off.

mykarma
Apr 30th, 2008, 08:00 PM
[/b]

What did Obama's camp call this when Hillary was doing it, Kitchen Sink Politics? Now his people are using the same tactic to defend why he should be nominated over Hillary. Do people forget that Hillary is a woman and is being discriminated against also? Why don't people say that if she isn't elected then it is a slap in the face of women everywhere, of every color? Why do they have to mention that blacks will start riots, that almost seems racist and stereotypical!
Obama nor his people wrote this article so I don't understand your point. If Hillary was in the same spot as Barack and they gave the nomination to him I'd be just as outraged as should everyone else be. :shrug:

mykarma
Apr 30th, 2008, 08:01 PM
:worship::worship:

to the poster who pointed this out first!!!

i thought i read this from a poster here before...
There was a post about the Bradley effect but a different article. This one was written yesterday, the 29th.

mykarma
Apr 30th, 2008, 08:03 PM
Black people are not going to riot if Obama does not get the nomination. They are going to do something way more damaging...stay home from the polls in November.

And I predict the Bradley effect will be renamed the Obama effect should Barack get the nomination. Unless he can find a way to unalienate white working-class voters. And I dont see him becoming less black between now and November, especially with his crackhead Uncle (Rev. Wright) coming out of the closet in full force. I was surprised at how many white Democrats in Pennsylvania said that race was a factor in their voting choices....especially since these were northern Democrats.
I don't think they will either but they'll be pretty upset.

Expat
Apr 30th, 2008, 08:25 PM
this article represents the viewpoint i gave in the other thread
theres no way the democratic superdelegates will go against obama
an obama nomination is inevitable
however the funny part is if obama loses the main election america is racist threads will populate non tennis forum for weeks on end
both hillary and obama have a lot of negatives
but his loss will be blamed on only one thing : race

mykarma
Apr 30th, 2008, 08:33 PM
this article represents the viewpoint i gave in the other thread
theres no way the democratic superdelegates will go against obama
an obama nomination is inevitable
however the funny part is if obama loses the main election america is racist threads will populate non tennis forum for weeks on end
both hillary and obama have a lot of negatives
but his loss will be blamed on only one thing : race
Race is always an issue in America so that's a given but I think a lot of people will blame the Clinton's for the type of campaign they're running.

Stamp Paid
Apr 30th, 2008, 08:45 PM
this article represents the viewpoint i gave in the other thread
theres no way the democratic superdelegates will go against obama
an obama nomination is inevitable
however the funny part is if obama loses the main election america is racist threads will populate non tennis forum for weeks on end
both hillary and obama have a lot of negatives
but his loss will be blamed on only one thing : raceLOLz. The same way Hillary fans will rationalize an Obama win as being driven by racist black people. :hearts:

mykarma
Apr 30th, 2008, 09:05 PM
LOLz. The same way Hillary fans will rationalize an Obama win as being driven by racist black people. :hearts:
That doesn't make any sense. Barack has more white supporters than black and he's the front runner in total delegates and popular vote?

samsung101
Apr 30th, 2008, 09:14 PM
Let me know when a black person is elected to the top spot in Germany.
It's old to hear and read Germany and other nations telling Americans,
gee, you must be racist, deep down, you're worried about a black guy
being elected president.


Barack Obama has had more votes from non-black people to get this far in
the process. Period.

Without much fanfare and inspections, tens of millions of white people,
hispanics, asian, etc., have voted for Obama over Hillary and Biden and
Richardson, for months and months...in huge numbers, in caucuses and plain
votes.

Because they prefer him to Hillary.

Couldn't it be just as easy to say Amerians, no, Democrats, who once
were ready to crown Hillary the first female nominee ran away from her
quickly for the new guy.

Isn't that sexism?

Isn't America really afraid to elect a woman?


He looks much younger than her.
Maybe, it's ageism.

McCain may get rolled over by the guy who could be his son, or
practically his grandson.



We know America isn't keen on nominating a Mormon to the top job, ask Romney
how he was treated by the press, and the party, and voters who liked him personally.
But, could never get over his membership in a church many know little of, or think
it's a cult.





Hillary is not easy to like, Obama is. Hillary is as warm as a cold rock,
Obama is warm and happy. Hillary is shrill in tone, Obama sounds statesmanlike.
He is younger, she is older.



There is buyer's remorse on Obama right now.
It has little to do with his skin color.
It has to do with the fact the media did not openly report
what it knew of him, dig into things it should have and would have
with any other candidate, and is now presenting to the public - after
he gained the lead in the nomination process.

Wright, Rezko, Ayers, his liberal voting record, should all have been
front and center - along with Hillary's stupid sniper story - in December
and January - not April.