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View Full Version : My take on the US Open favorites


Volcana
Aug 28th, 2005, 06:01 PM
Yeah, a lot of players CAN win. But who do recent and past results say are most likely to win? Why just put seven or eight players in one big 'can win' group? That's no fun.

I considered several factors.

1) How the player did on Deco-Turf in 2005?
2) Did the player ever win the US Open?
3) Is the player currently holding a slam title?
___(There's something about knowing you can still win one...)
4) Is the player you coming into the US Open off an injury?
5) Current Porsche Race position
6) Was the player a finalist in the last four slams?
7) Last head-to-heads vs other top players
8) career head-to-head vs other top players
9) Career slam titles
10) The draw

Top Favorites

Clijsters (duh)
- Her quarter of the draw turned out to be the 'Group of Death', though

Davenport
- won two Deco-Turf tournaments this year, was a finalist in another.
- leading the Porsche race
- two slam finals this year
- ex-champ
- decent head-to-heads
- 3 GS title
- health is good
- won her tune-up
- Easy draw, for the world #1 anyway
On sheer results, those two actually rise about the others. Everybody else has health issues, or lousy Deco-Turf records
************************************************** ********
2nd level favorites

V Williams
- Won Wimbledon. Wimbledon champ usually does very well at the US Open.
- Stanford final (lost to Clijsters)
- Coming in off health issue, but it's flu, not injury
- ex-champ
- head-to-heads pretty good
- Sixth in Porsche race
- 5 GS titles
- 'Group of Death'

Henin-Hardenne
- Won Roland Garros. Not as significant as winning Wimbledon, are far as USO is concerned.
- Toronto final (lost to Clijsters)
- health is good
- ex-champ
- Fourth in the Porsche race
- head-to-heads pretty good, except against Venus
- 4 GS titles
- Her draw's not awful

************************************************** ********
3rd level favorites
S Williams
- Won OZ. But that was a long time ago.
- Coming in off health issue
- ex-champ
- head-to-heads pretty good
- 7 GS titles
- 'Group of Death'
- Hasn't sniffed a final in ages
- The best player in the sport, when healthy and fit. She's neither.

Sharapova
- Won a Deco-Turf tournament, was a finalist in another
- Coming in off health issue
- last head-to-heads very poor
- career head-to-heads are fine
- Third in the Porsche race
- 1 GS title
- Fairly soft draw, (for a slam)

************************************************** *********
After that, we're really dealing with long shots.

Kuznetsova
- Defending champ
- Not even top ten in the Porsche race
- I may just be giving the defending champ her props

Pierce
- Won San Diego, but the field was depleted
- RG final
- 2 GS titles
- health issue
Mauresmo
- Fifth in Porsche race
- Not her best surface

Of course, this is all selected facts, and my opinion. As for who's actually going to WIN, the tournament? Venus, of course. I would never picked against her. I might be struck by lightning. :devil:

manu
Aug 28th, 2005, 06:07 PM
I more or less agree with that. My top favourites are also Kim, Lindsay, Justine and Venus, with Kim and Lindsay probably a little bit ahead. Serena would be right behind them as 5th (you just never know ;) ). Yet again Slam winners aren't decided by statistics/analyses, so who knows?

frenchie
Aug 28th, 2005, 06:07 PM
Ok but I would put Momo higher!

Jen&RobbyFan
Aug 28th, 2005, 06:16 PM
I have a feeling this Slam will go to Venus(most likely) or Kim, and then in the Aussie 06 we'll get a surprise winner.

Andy T
Aug 28th, 2005, 06:23 PM
A very fair analysis, imo. Henin would not meet Clijsters, if at all, until the final, so I'd have her as my third fave, just ahead of Venus, who has obviously had to go without recent matchplay because of her 'flu. As at Wimbledon, Venus will have some time to play herself in but IF Serena, Kim and Masha are her three adversaries before the final, she's going to have to be strong both physically and psychologically to get past them all. Her Wimbledon result says she could.

Serena and Masha are the big enigmas for me.

So far - as far as I can remember, may be wrong, therefore, each winner of the majors this year has not made it as far as the QF in another one, either 'cos she didn't play or 'cos she went out early. I can't see that happening again, through.

Jen&RobbyFan
Aug 28th, 2005, 06:27 PM
So far - as far as I can remember, may be wrong, therefore, each winner of the majors this year has not made it as far as the QF in another one, either 'cos she didn't play or 'cos she went out early. I can't see that happening again, through.

Hmm.. Maybe Svetlana? :lol:

Chrissie-fan
Aug 28th, 2005, 06:50 PM
I mostly agree but would put Henin up with the top favorites and Pierce with the 2nd level faves. :smoke:

Kart
Aug 28th, 2005, 06:55 PM
Sharapova has a very good draw.

I'm not aware of how she's played this summer but I'd expect her to get to the semi unless Sveta or any of the others in the quarter actually stop being afraid of her.

!<blocparty>!
Aug 28th, 2005, 07:14 PM
I'm thinking Clijsters Davenport final. Those are my two, players who I think are favourite to reach the final. Venus, then Justine third and fourth.

vwfan
Aug 28th, 2005, 07:37 PM
if Venus wants this as much as she wanted Wimbledon, she will go through her relatively tough draw the same way she managed it at Wimbledon:
beating Daniela in the third round
taking on a surprise 4th round opponent/or having to send Serena home to rest her knee better and get ready to defend her Aus Open title
taking out current fav Kim in QF, by raising her game only a bit higher than the level she played at Stanford, which was her C+ game
and then getting similar bonus points by beating the #1 and #2 players in the world in the semis and final.
it's on Venus' racket!

Volcana
Aug 28th, 2005, 07:55 PM
I mostly agree but would put Henin up with the top favorites and Pierce with the 2nd level faves. :smoke:Henin-Hardenne just played so very little this year besides clay. It's more that Clijsters and Davenport have the best results on the surface, and the resume, and health, that make me put them a bit ahead.

Who know? There's no guarantee all these players even make it to the fourth round!

_LuCaS_
Aug 28th, 2005, 08:06 PM
Sharapova has a very good draw.


She has a nice 1st round match ;)

Kart
Aug 28th, 2005, 08:33 PM
I didn't notice that first time round LOL.

Hopefully Danilidou will be able to hold her nerve and Maria will be in a generous mood ;).

jfk
Aug 28th, 2005, 08:51 PM
A very fair analysis, Volcana. It's so tough to know how Serena, Venus, and JHH will play due to their lack of consistency this season. They could easily be the first (even above Lindsay and Kim) or fourth tier if you look at some of their performances.....2nd and 3rd tiers seems appropriate. If they stumble, consistency (Davenport and Clijsters) should win out.

morningglory
Aug 28th, 2005, 09:52 PM
... but you forgot the 'mentality' issue.
In that area I think JHH, Serena, Venus, and Maria S has an edge over Kim, Amelie and Lindsay.

*Karen*
Aug 28th, 2005, 10:04 PM
I agree with that although I don't think Kuznetsova is a faviourite. But I suppose nobody thought that last year either.

martirogi
Aug 28th, 2005, 10:04 PM
i think justine will win. she's a lock for the semis where she'll play davenport. with her fighting attitude she should prevail. on the other half sharapova will lose in the semis, but who she'll play is the real question. kim prob won't choke until the final, but venus could beat her in the quarters. excluding wimbldeon venus hasn't played all that well this year. i forget who she beat to get to stanford final, but one amazing tourney isn't enough to justify another slam win. so clijsters/venus is maybe 50-50 and the winner will lose in the final.