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View Full Version : Fight for #1 at USO (FINAL UPDATE)

densuprun
Aug 27th, 2005, 09:08 PM
OK, this will be a very long post, so some of you may want to read just the bold text.
------------
First, the rating on August 29 (pre-USO) will be
1. LD: 4609
2. MS: 4452
3. AM: 3907
4. KC: 3179

Maria's 18th result is 72 points so if she gets less than that at USO, this result will become her 17th and will start to count.
Post-USO rating will be:
1. MS: 4360 + USO (but at least 4432)
2. LD: 4153 + USO -> needs at least 279 at USO
3. AM: 3653 + USO -> needs at least 779 at USO
4. KC: 3179 + USO -> needs at least 1253 at USO

At USO Kim can get at most 650+(4+16+30+70+86+150+200)=1206, i.e. she can't get to #1 no matter what.
-----------------

One can calculate all possible mathematical ranges of points that a player can get by getting into, say, QF, or winning the title. That would mean considering possibilities that MS, LD, or AM play finals with some qualifier outside of top 100. The results would be quite unrealistic and will take a longer time to compute. Instead, I will assume that all seeds win their first two matches, after that anything can happen. Thus, none of the above 3 players will see some low ranked player in 3rd round or after that. Whoever they beat, they will get at least 30 quality points.

OK, here it goes:

Maria loses in 1st or 2nd round: gets <72 points, finishes with 4432 after USO
Maria gets in 3rd: 76 or 92 points
Maria in 4th: 140-156
Maria in QF: 258-298
Maria in SF: 418-528
Maria in F: 612-802
Maria wins T: 836-1196

Lindsay gets in 3rd: 78 or 92 points
Lindsay gets in QF: 244-298
Lindsay gets in SF: 420-514
Lindsay gets in F: 614-810
Lindsay wins T: 838-1114 (if MS does not reach F), 958-1154 (if MS reaches F)

Amelie gets in 3rd: 88 or 92 points
Amelie gets in F: 624-764 (if LD does not reach SF); 794-878 (if LD reaches SF)
Amelie wins T: 848-1068 (if plays neither LD in SF, nor MS in F), 1018-1182(if plays LD in SF but not MS in F)
----------------------

To remind, Lindsay needs at least 279, Amelie needs at least 779. Thus,

1. To have a shot at #1 Lindsay has to reach at least QF, Amelie needs F if she beats LD in SF, otherwise she needs to win the title.

AMELIE

1. If Amelie gets into F without beating Lindsay in SF, she will have at most 764 points, not enough for #1. She will need the title.
If Amelie gets into F by beating Lindsay in SF, she will have at most 878 points. This is enough to pass Maria, if she stumbles early. However, Lindsay, by reaching SF, will have at least 420, i.e. she would have passed Maria, too. The difference between earned points will be 878-420=458 which is not enough for Amelie to compensate for 500 points differential between her and Lindsay (3653 vs 4153). Thus, final may be enough for Amelie to pass Maria but no matter what else happens final will never be enough to get #1. Amelie MUST win the title to have a chance at #1.

2. If Lindsay doesn't reach SF then Amelie's title will give her at least 848. With Lindsay having at most 298 for QF, Amelie will pass her in the rankings.
If Lindsay does reach SF and loses to Amelie who then wins the title, then Lindsay will have at most 514, Amelie will have at least 1018. Again, the difference is larger than 500, so Amelie will pass Lindsay if she wins the title.
As far as passing Maria goes, if Amelie wins title with just 848 points then Maria will need just 142 points to keep #1. Maria can get these points by reaching 4th round. If Amelie wins the title with 1182 points then Maria will need 476 points to guarantee that Amelie's title will not make her #1. At this point, only the final makes sure that Maria gets these 476 points.
To summarize,
Amelie MUST win the title to have a chance at #1.
If Maria doesn't reach 4th round, Amelie is #1. If Maria reaches final, Maria is #1. If Amelie wins the title while Maria is stopped in 4th, QF, or SF, then #1 depends on quality points earned in the process.

LINDSAY

1. If Maria loses in 1st or 2nd round, or reaches 3rd round with 76 points, then QF may or may not be enough for Lindsay, SF will be enough, no matter what.

2. If Maria reaches the 3rd round with 92 points (it depends on whether Randriantefy beats Gambale in the 1st round), then she'll have 4452. Then, Lindsay will need 299, i.e. QF is insufficient for her no matter what and she will need SF.

3. If Maria gets into 4th round, then SF will be enough for Lindsay, no matter what.

4. If Maria gets into QF, then SF may or may not be enough for Lindsay, F will be enough, no matter what.

5. If Maria gets into SF, then F may or may not be enough for Lindsay, title will be enough, no matter what.

6. If Maria gets into F, then title may or may not be enough for Lindsay. For instance, if Maria gets 802 points for getting into F, Lindsay will need 1009 points for the title while her total may be as low as 958.

OK, I guess that's about it. :wavey:

Sweep
Aug 27th, 2005, 09:11 PM
Thanks for that.

This is the sort of battle that we've been crying out for.

-VSR-
Aug 27th, 2005, 09:18 PM
Thanks it was a good read!

Shonami Slam
Aug 27th, 2005, 09:37 PM
thank you - i always anticipate the statistic-posts. i love them.
be sure to bumb this after the 3rd round!

densuprun
Aug 27th, 2005, 09:44 PM
Will do.

victory1
Aug 27th, 2005, 10:04 PM
Great job!!

Lemonskin.
Aug 27th, 2005, 10:20 PM
Cool beans.

!<blocparty>!
Aug 27th, 2005, 11:10 PM
Thats amazing, thanks a lot :)

Maria isn't getting to the final, though :) Too many good players who can beat her, mainly Kim and Venus. A Lindsay Kim final would be funny :p

RayRob
Aug 27th, 2005, 11:13 PM
Thanks....I was wondering about the fight for number one, I kinda figured it would pretty much be "Lindsay needs to stay one round ahead" sort of thing....it was very interesting, thanks for taking the time :D

-Rache

LeRoy.
Aug 29th, 2005, 12:21 AM
Thanks :)

Daniel
Aug 29th, 2005, 12:29 AM
thnaks

Slumpsova
Aug 29th, 2005, 12:36 AM
:eek: you rock! thanks.

hablo
Aug 29th, 2005, 01:02 AM
:yeah:

jcaprulez
Aug 29th, 2005, 01:04 AM
Lindsay will still be number 1. She'll last longer in the us open than Amelie or Maria.

Ceecor
Aug 29th, 2005, 01:11 AM
Great !........absol' brill' break down. :)

Davenselesport
Aug 29th, 2005, 01:16 AM
Mauresmo has a chance at #1? wow... she will choke if she finds this out

hablo
Aug 29th, 2005, 01:22 AM
Mauresmo has a chance at #1? wow... she will choke if she finds this out

:p

Junex
Aug 29th, 2005, 01:53 AM
just keep bimping!

great statistics feed!

Munchen
Aug 29th, 2005, 02:00 AM
Thanks. :)

Goodluck Maria :kiss:

densuprun
Sep 2nd, 2005, 01:32 AM
Below you will find an update for the Fight for #1 after 2nd round. As the first time around, this will be a very long post, so some of you may want to read just the bold text.

The most important differences from the original:
1. Since Maria got the tougher of the two possible opponents in the 2nd round (Randriantefy rather than Gambale) she got 92 points. This makes sure that QF won't be enough for Lindsay. Lindsay MUST make SF.
2A. Several seeds didn't make it to the 3rd round in Maria's section. So, she will get less quality points than was expected. One of the consequences of this change is that if Lindsay does make SF then, most likely, QF will not be enough for Maria to stay ahead of Lindsay. She'll probably need a SF of her own.
2B. The other consequence is that Maria won't get as many points as was expected for making the final. While 4 days ago I predicted that even if Lindsay beats Maria in the final, it may not be enough to get to #1. Now the situation has changed and no matter who they play in earlier rounds, if Lindsay wins the title she gets the top spot as well.
----------------------------------------------------
DETAILS:

UPDATE AFTER 2nd ROUND:

Post-USO rating will be:
1. MS: 4360 + USO (currently USO=92)
2. LD: 4153 + USO -> needs at least 299 at USO
3. AM: 3653 + USO -> needs at least 799 at USO
-----------------

With the only simplifying assumption of no walkovers,

Maria loses in 3rd: 92 points (LD needs 299, AM: 799)
Maria gets in 4th: 134 (LD needs 341, AM: 841)
Maria gets in QF: 226 (LD needs 433, AM: 933)
Maria gets in SF: 360-442 (LD needs 567-649, AM: 1067-1149)
Maria gets in F: 540-716 (LD needs 747-923, AM: 1247-1423)
Maria wins T: 750-1110 (LD needs 957-1317)

-----
Lindsay loses in 3rd: 78 points
Lindsay gets in QF: 244-284 (insufficient)
Lindsay gets in SF: 420-500
Lindsay gets in F: 600-796
Lindsay wins T: 798-1100 (if MS does not reach F), 944-1140 (if MS reaches F)

Amelie gets in 3rd: 92 points
Amelie gets in F: 614-764 (if LD does not reach SF); 784-878 (if LD reaches SF)
Amelie wins T: 812-1068 (if plays neither LD in SF, nor MS in F), 982-1182 (if plays LD in SF but not MS in F)
----------------------

To remind, Lindsay needs at least 299, Amelie needs at least 799. Thus,
to have a shot at #1 Lindsay has to reach at least SF, Amelie needs F if she beats LD in SF, otherwise she needs to win the title.

AMELIE

1. If Amelie gets into F without beating Lindsay in SF, she will have at most 764 points, not enough for #1. She will need the title.
If Amelie gets into F by beating Lindsay in SF, she will have at most 878 points. This is enough to pass Maria, if she stumbles in 3rd or 4th. However, Lindsay, by reaching SF, will have at least 420, i.e. she would have passed Maria, too. The difference between earned points will be 878-420=458 which is not enough for Amelie to compensate for 500 points differential between her and Lindsay (3653 vs 4153). Thus, final may be enough for Amelie to pass Maria but no matter what else happens, final will never be enough to get #1. Amelie MUST win the title to have a chance at #1.

2. If Lindsay doesn't reach SF then Amelie's title will give her at least 812. With Lindsay having at most 284 for QF, Amelie will pass her in the rankings.
If Lindsay does reach SF and loses to Amelie who then wins the title, then Lindsay may have as much as 500, Amelie may have as little as 982, with the difference less than 500. Thus, the title will most likely push Amelie past Lindsay but it does not guarantee it.
As far as passing Maria goes, if Amelie wins title with just 826 points then Maria will need just 120 points to keep #1. Maria will get these points by reaching 4th round. If Amelie wins the title with 1182 points then Maria will need 476 points to guarantee that Amelie's title will not make her #1. Only the final makes sure that Maria gets these 476 points.
To summarize,
Amelie MUST win the title to have a chance at #1.
If Lindsay reaches SF then even the title may not be enough for Amelie to become #1, it will depend on quality points.
If Amelie wins the title while Maria loses in 3rd round, Amelie is #1. If Amelie wins the title while Maria reaches final, Maria is #1. If Amelie wins the title while Maria is stopped in 4th, QF, or SF, then #1 depends on quality points earned in the process.

LINDSAY

1. Since Maria reached the 3rd round with 92 points, Lindsay will need at least 299, i.e. QF is insufficient for her no matter what and she will need SF.

2. If Maria gets into 4th round, then SF will be enough for Lindsay, no matter what.

3. If Maria gets into QF, then SF may or may not be enough for Lindsay, F will be enough, no matter what.

4. If Maria gets into SF, then F may or may not be enough for Lindsay, title will be enough, no matter what.

5. If Maria gets into F she will have at most 716 (Lindsay will need 923 to pass her). If Lindsay beats Maria in the final she will have at least 944 points, so she'll definitely pass Maria. If Lindsay wins title she will get #1, no matter what.

6. If Maria wins title she will become #1.

Rub
Sep 2nd, 2005, 02:48 AM
kim's still far...

@m@nd@
Sep 2nd, 2005, 03:00 AM
thanks :)

Portobello
Sep 2nd, 2005, 03:03 AM
Thx :yeah:

Go Maria,take #1 back with slam :hug:

MinnyGophers
Sep 2nd, 2005, 03:33 AM
for me its simple... whoever of the three wins the title will be number one and would deserve it...

Portobello
Sep 2nd, 2005, 03:36 AM
for me its simple... whoever of the three wins the title will be number one and would deserve it...
Yeahhh couldn't agree more :worship: :worship:

goldenboi356
Sep 2nd, 2005, 03:41 AM
thanks so much for the info. since sharapova's draw opened up, she'll reeach the semis and i hope clisjsters can stop her there. now i'm hope lindsay will reach final, even though she has to beat Justine along the way. and then lind can beat kim

densuprun
Sep 2nd, 2005, 04:48 AM
Well, obviously it would be most fun if Maria and Lindsay play in the final, with both the title and #1 on the line.

Stroba
Sep 2nd, 2005, 06:05 AM
Well, obviously it would be most fun if Maria and Lindsay play in the final, with both the title and #1 on the line.

I couldnīt agree more! I really hope this will happen. Then whoever walks away with the title would without a doubt be a deserving #1. :bounce:

densuprun
Sep 2nd, 2005, 06:51 AM
Yeah, I guess I should have said with the title, #1, and the win over #2 on the line. The one to win the title would be the undisputable #1. Nice!

morethanperfect
Sep 2nd, 2005, 06:51 AM
go lindsey

Junex
Sep 2nd, 2005, 09:19 AM
Win the title Lindsay!!!!

jinx...jinx...jinx....:devil:

Shonami Slam
Sep 2nd, 2005, 10:29 AM
generaly speaking - all the tough calculating is now less relevant untill the later stages.
we'll know who's our potential #1 in the SF.
if one of the three fails, she loses her chance.

Farina Elia Fan
Sep 2nd, 2005, 10:33 AM
thanks!

keep going lindsay!

Lindsayfan32
Sep 2nd, 2005, 12:43 PM
Mauresmo has a chance at #1? wow... she will choke if she finds this out

I read on the WTA site Mauresmo is only an outside chance for the number one ranking after the US Open. It more than likely it will be Lindsay or Maria. I'll put my money on Lindsay at moment.

chris whiteside
Sep 2nd, 2005, 12:52 PM
Thanks for all the points info., densuprun.

I was trying to find out whether Lindsay would be #1 if Miss Sharapova got to the final.

densuprun
Sep 2nd, 2005, 12:58 PM
Thanks for all the points info., densuprun.

I was trying to find out whether Lindsay would be #1 if Miss Sharapova got to the final.

I guess you mean whether Lindsay would be #1 if she beats Maria in the final.

Well, at the start of the tournament the answer would be "very likely but not 100%". After some higher seeds in Maria section lost, the answer is unequivocal "yes".

*Jool*
Sep 2nd, 2005, 01:04 PM
I hope Lindsay wins the title, dont care abt n°1 :)
Good luck Lindsay !! :bounce:

Nicjac
Sep 2nd, 2005, 01:05 PM
Thx, great statistics!

densuprun
Sep 4th, 2005, 02:24 AM
Below you will find an update for the Fight for #1 after 3rd round. As the first time around, this will be a very long post, so some of you may want to read just the bold text.

The most important differences from the previous round:

With losses of some low ranked players, the possible ranges of points for Maria, Lindsay and Amelie tightened, became smaller. There is much less uncertainty now.

1. For instance, if you look at the end of the post for Lindsay, you will see that everything is much simpler now. Earlier, final did not guarantee that Lindsay passes Maria if Maria gets into SF, now it does. In fact, the situation is as simple as this: if Lindsay reaches SF then if she goes one round further than Maria then she is #1. If both lose in SF then Maria stays ahead of Lindsay.

2. Less uncertainty for Amelie, too, but in a small way. If she wins the title then she is definitely ends up ahead of Lindsay (it wasn't clear until now). As for #1, it will depend on Maria's points.

----------------------------------------------------
DETAILS:

UPDATE AFTER 3rd ROUND:

Post-USO rating will be:
1. MS: 4360 + USO (currently USO=134)
2. LD: 4153 + USO -> needs at least 341 at USO
3. AM: 3653 + USO -> needs at least 841 at USO
-----------------

With the only simplifying assumption of no walkovers,

Maria loses in 4th: 134 (LD needs 341, AM: 841)
Maria gets in QF: 226 (LD needs 433, AM: 933)
Maria gets in SF: 386-442 (LD needs 593-649, AM: 1093-1149)
Maria gets in F: 566-716 (LD needs 773-923, AM: 1273-1423)
Maria wins T: 806-1110 (LD needs 1013-1317)

-----
Lindsay loses in 4th: 142 points
Lindsay gets in QF: 284 (insufficient)
Lindsay gets in SF: 484-500
Lindsay gets in F: 694-796
Lindsay wins T: 904-1100 (if MS does not reach F), 1050-1140 (if MS reaches F)

Amelie gets in F: 708-740 (if LD does not reach SF); 838-854 (if LD reaches SF)
Amelie wins T: 918-1044 (if plays neither LD in SF, nor MS in F), 1048-1158 (if plays LD in SF but not MS in F)
----------------------

To remind, Lindsay needs at least 341, Amelie needs at least 841. Thus,
to have a shot at #1 Lindsay has to reach at least SF, Amelie needs F if she beats LD in SF, otherwise she needs to win the title.

AMELIE

1. If Amelie gets into F without beating Lindsay in SF, she will have at most 740 points, not enough for #1. She will need the title.
If Amelie gets into F by beating Lindsay in SF, she will have at most 854 points. This is enough to pass Maria, if she stumbles in 4th. However, Lindsay, by reaching SF, will have at least 484, i.e. she would have passed Maria, too. The difference between earned points will be 854-484=370 which is not enough for Amelie to compensate for 500 points differential between her and Lindsay (3653 vs 4153). Thus, final may be enough for Amelie to pass Maria but no matter what else happens, final will never be enough to get #1. Amelie MUST win the title to have a chance at #1.

2. If Lindsay doesn't reach SF then Amelie's title will give her at least 918. With Lindsay having at most 284 for QF, Amelie will pass her in the rankings.
If Lindsay does reach SF and loses to Amelie who then wins the title, then Lindsay will have at most 500, Amelie will have at least 1048. Again, the difference is larger than 500, so, Amelie will pass Lindsay if she wins the title.
As far as passing Maria goes, if Amelie wins title with just 918 points then Maria will need just 212 points to keep #1. Maria will get these points by reaching QF. If Amelie wins the title with 1158 points then Maria will need 452 points to guarantee that Amelie's title will not make her #1. Only the final can give Maria these 452 points.
To summarize,
Amelie MUST win the title to have a chance at #1.
The fate of #1 won't depend on Lindsay's points in this case.
As for Maria, if Amelie wins the title while Maria loses in 4th round, Amelie is #1. If Amelie wins the title while Maria reaches final, Maria is #1. If Amelie wins the title while Maria is stopped in QF or SF, then #1 depends on quality points earned in the process.

LINDSAY

1. If Maria loses in 4th round or QF, then SF will be enough for Lindsay, no matter what.

2. If Maria loses in SF, then F will be enough for Lindsay, no matter what.

3. If Maria gets into F she will have at most 716 points (Lindsay will need 923 to pass her). If Lindsay beats Maria in the final she will have at least 1050 points, so she'll definitely pass Maria. Thus, if Lindsay wins title she will get #1, no matter what.

4. If Maria wins title she will become #1.

densuprun
Sep 6th, 2005, 02:47 AM
Update after 4th round:

Well, as far as Lindsay is concerned, nothing depends on quality points anymore. Lindsay will become #1 only if she reaches SF and advances one round further than Maria.

Amelie.
The situation is clear now.

Imagine that Maria reaches SF and then loses. She would earn 442 points. Amelie needs 1149 to pass her. However, now that JHH lost, Amelie will have at most 1142 points (and not 1158 as before) if she wins the title without meeting Maria in the final. Thus, if Maria reaches SF, Amelie won't be #1 after USO, no matter what.

If Maria loses in QF, though, she would have just 226 points. Amelie would need 933 points to pass her. She will get at least 1004 for the title. Thus, if Maria loses in QF and Amelie wins the title, Amelie will be #1 after USO, no matter what.

densuprun
Sep 8th, 2005, 02:59 AM
FINAL UPDATE:

Maria is back to #1 after USO! :)
With at least 365 points advantage!