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Doc
Dec 9th, 2004, 11:56 AM
In 2004 the Russians dominated the major championships. Of the five biggest prizes in tennis. Australian Open, French open, Wimbledon, US Open, and the WTA Championships. Four went to Russian players. Only one went to a non-Russian.

Even were you to include the Olympics, with its restricted entry system, the Ratio woud still be 4-2 Russia versus Rest of World. This looks pretty much like domination.

Looking at all tournaments the case looks less solid, particularly in the lower tier events. But Lower Tier events do not really count towards a domination, since they are usually won in the absence of the higher-ranked players.

If we look at Womens Events of Tier 2 and above for the 2nd half of 2004 (since June) we find the following title winners:

Russian

Elena Bovina 1
Maria Sharapova 2
Svetlana Kuznetsova 2
Anastasia Myskina 2
Total 7 events

Rest of World

Justine Henin Hardenne 1
Amelie Mauresmo 3
Lindsay Davenport 4
Serena Williams 1
Alicia Molik 1
Total 10 events.

No other nation comes close. If we further consider that all of Amelie's 3 wins, as well as Molik's, Serena's and one of Davenport's were against Russian Finalists, we can see how much the Russians have been dominating. In fact remove Lindsay and Amelie, and the rest of the World looks in a very poor state.

So, will the Russians continue to dominate the major events of the tour next year - particularly the slams? And who can stop them?

Chunchun
Dec 9th, 2004, 11:58 AM
yes, LenaD will shine in 2005 :D :rocker2:

tennislover
Dec 9th, 2004, 11:58 AM
yes, that's probable

Mathijs
Dec 9th, 2004, 12:40 PM
no doubt ;)

AjdeNate!
Dec 9th, 2004, 12:42 PM
Yes, they'll win every event of every week.

*Jool*
Dec 9th, 2004, 12:43 PM
I don't think they'll do it as good as 2004, in general.
Myskina and Sharapova maybe, but IMO Lena D and Sveta will lose speed this year...

kabuki
Dec 9th, 2004, 12:57 PM
Dunno. Ask the Belgians, the Sisters, and Linds' obstetrician.

bandabou
Dec 9th, 2004, 01:01 PM
It´s all about the numbers......russians are plenty, so the chances for them to win week in, week out, are better compared to other players AND they play a LOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTT!!

One player who can certainly stop them is Serena....if you look at her h2h against them as a group this year, she´s held herself pretty well....the only one Russian who seems to have her number is Maria...although their last match never really happened or only lasted for two sets at best...

jenny161185
Dec 9th, 2004, 02:24 PM
Im not sure about Sveta though I think Maria , Elena and Myskina will continue to do well this year - but now they are the favourites and the players are after them so it will be interesting to see

goldenlox
Dec 9th, 2004, 02:32 PM
The Russians haven't dominated the week to week Tier I's and II's.
But only Russians, Justine, and Serena, have won majors for years now.
I expect all 4 major winners are in that ^ group.

Shooter
Dec 9th, 2004, 02:38 PM
Pardon me for posting something I posted previously, but it seems apropriate to this thread. According to the figures below (which I compiled), not only do the Russians look good for the next few years, America looks pretty weak. On Nov 1, 04 there were 6 Russians under 20 years old ranked in the top 100. There were NO Americans! This does not bode well for the future of American tennis or for the WTA Tour. Sponsors will start fading away if there are no American stars on the tour.

http://www.mfwweb.com/tennis/Misc/Aging.jpg

JLDementieva
Dec 9th, 2004, 03:31 PM
They'll continue to dominate, but i don't think they'll win 3 out of the 4 Grand Slams like this year.

blumaroo
Dec 9th, 2004, 03:41 PM
Lindsay will stop most of them if she is healthy. The two Belgians too if they can play fo 100%. I don't see Myskina/Dementieva/Kuznetsova beating Justine and Kim that easily. Plus, Serena is always there and Amelie knows how to handle them too.

Justine h2h:
DEMENTIEVA, ELENA (RUS) 6-1
MYSKINA, ANASTASIA (RUS) 6-2
KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA (RUS) 5-1
PETROVA, NADIA (RUS) 5-1
ZVONAREVA, VERA (RUS) - 3-0

Kim h2h:

DEMENTIEVA, ELENA (RUS) 5-1
MYSKINA, ANASTASIA (RUS) 5-3
KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA (RUS) 3-0
PETROVA, NADIA (RUS) NA
ZVONAREVA, VERA (RUS) - 1-0
SHARAPOVA, MARIA (RUS) 2-0

Mauresmo

DEMENTIEVA, ELENA (RUS) 5-3
MYSKINA, ANASTASIA (RUS) 5-1
KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA (RUS) 4-0
PETROVA, NADIA (RUS) NA
ZVONAREVA, VERA (RUS) - 6-0
SHARAPOVA, MARIA (RUS) 1-0

Davenport

DEMENTIEVA, ELENA (RUS) 10-4
MYSKINA, ANASTASIA (RUS) 4-2
KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA (RUS) 0-1
PETROVA, NADIA (RUS) 5-0
ZVONAREVA, VERA (RUS) 5-0
SHARAPOVA, MARIA (RUS) 0 -1

fammmmedspin
Dec 9th, 2004, 06:03 PM
Lindsay will stop most of them if she is healthy. The two Belgians too if they can play fo 100%. I don't see Myskina/Dementieva/Kuznetsova beating Justine and Kim that easily. Plus, Serena is always there and Amelie knows how to handle them too.

Justine h2h:
DEMENTIEVA, ELENA (RUS) 6-1
MYSKINA, ANASTASIA (RUS) 6-2
KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA (RUS) 5-1
PETROVA, NADIA (RUS) 5-1
ZVONAREVA, VERA (RUS) - 3-0

Kim h2h:

DEMENTIEVA, ELENA (RUS) 5-1
MYSKINA, ANASTASIA (RUS) 5-3
KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA (RUS) 3-0
PETROVA, NADIA (RUS) NA
ZVONAREVA, VERA (RUS) - 1-0
SHARAPOVA, MARIA (RUS) 2-0

Mauresmo

DEMENTIEVA, ELENA (RUS) 5-3
MYSKINA, ANASTASIA (RUS) 5-1
KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA (RUS) 4-0
PETROVA, NADIA (RUS) NA
ZVONAREVA, VERA (RUS) - 6-0
SHARAPOVA, MARIA (RUS) 1-0

Davenport

DEMENTIEVA, ELENA (RUS) 10-4
MYSKINA, ANASTASIA (RUS) 4-2
KUZNETSOVA, SVETLANA (RUS) 0-1
PETROVA, NADIA (RUS) 5-0
ZVONAREVA, VERA (RUS) 5-0
SHARAPOVA, MARIA (RUS) 0 -1
I would agree that Kim and Justine might, if fit, be really challenging as they can play Russian tennis more consistently at their best (all forms of it too)

Your H2Hs though are historic though and history tells us what was not what is. The 2004 H2H might be more predictive and if you put all those players in a list and asked who was getting better in 2004 and who wasn't the first list would have the people whose surnames ended in "a" .

shap_half
Dec 9th, 2004, 06:20 PM
a. Sharapova never won a Tier II or above (not counting Wimbledon and YEC). All her wins have been on Tier III or below.

b. it's funny how when Justine and Kim are not around is when this domination started. Atleast before Serena and Venus took their injury break after Wimbledon, Justine has already won a GS and 3 other Tier II or above titles (two of which are Tier I) and Kim has won 2 Tier Is and was a finalist in another one. The Russians didn't really do anything until everyone was too beat up to contest them. I love the Russians but when all they win are Tier III or below (except for Myskina and Bovina) and then losing to Amelie or Lindsay 6-1 6-1 in higher Tier events, that's not a domination.

in Justine's last 2 tournaments healthy (IW and AI) she defeated 4 Russians.

bandabou
Dec 9th, 2004, 06:39 PM
good point shap.....it´s gonna be interesting to see what happens next year when hopefully everybody is healthy....still think that the russian domination is more a by the numbers thing than anything else, but we´ll see.

manu32
Dec 9th, 2004, 06:40 PM
i don't hope.....because if sharapova or myskina can be good for wta tour it's not the case for kusnetsova or zvonareva....stakhanovism is maybe a guarantee to have a correct ranking but not to win the heart of crowd....i have tickets for FO and i don't
want to see a new russian final without a little suspense or emotion.....

Saved!
Dec 9th, 2004, 06:47 PM
no the ruskies are done and over. it's re-williams time

MrSerenaWilliams
Dec 9th, 2004, 07:20 PM
I agree!

Grohl
Dec 9th, 2004, 07:34 PM
kim will be back

felipe2004
Dec 10th, 2004, 12:15 AM
Justine will kick the russian's ass :D

Yam
Dec 10th, 2004, 12:20 AM
For sure, i mean what is the chance of ALL of them stuggling at the SAME time?

Yam
Dec 10th, 2004, 12:21 AM
a. Sharapova never won a Tier II or above (not counting Wimbledon and YEC). All her wins have been on Tier III or below.

b. it's funny how when Justine and Kim are not around is when this domination started. Atleast before Serena and Venus took their injury break after Wimbledon, Justine has already won a GS and 3 other Tier II or above titles (two of which are Tier I) and Kim has won 2 Tier Is and was a finalist in another one. The Russians didn't really do anything until everyone was too beat up to contest them. I love the Russians but when all they win are Tier III or below (except for Myskina and Bovina) and then losing to Amelie or Lindsay 6-1 6-1 in higher Tier events, that's not a domination.

in Justine's last 2 tournaments healthy (IW and AI) she defeated 4 Russians.

:confused: Your point is?????

SpikeyAidanm
Dec 10th, 2004, 12:42 AM
Yes watch out for:

Bovina - I see her reaching a Slam final and finishing top 10
Douchevina - will rise into top 20
Kirilenko - will rise into top 30
Sharapova / Myskina - will occupy 2 of the top 3 spots in the rankings
Zvonareva / Petrova - stay where they are
Dementieva / Kuznetsova - stay where they are or drop slightly
Chakvetadze - will jump into top 40

Doc
Dec 10th, 2004, 01:00 AM
Russian domination is not just about numbers. There are plenty of Americans and other Europeans in the Top 1000. It's about the quality and drive of the girls who are playing.

Basically the Americans have a problem with only Shenay Perry of the 20-and-under class, being in the Top 100, with most of the rest of their top players rapidly ageing. Of the middle group, is it getting too late for players like Marissa Irvin, Laura Granville and Meghann Shaughnessy to reach the very top? German womens tennis seems to have followed Britain into collapse. The Italians and Spanish are producing few likely champions, and the Belgians are too dependent on just two players. Only France and a scattering of Eastern Europeans look like big prospects for the future.

So preventing Russian domination next year depends on a group of injury-prone players comprising Justine, Kim, Venus, Serena, Lindsay, Jennifer and Amelie, as well, of course as Alicia and tati.

My money is on the Russians :D

Gowza
Dec 10th, 2004, 01:04 AM
dont forget dementieva making 2 slam finals and the miami final also which are some very strong performances by the russians.

they have the potential to do well, but if serena and justine get back to their best i dont think they will have the success they did this year. there are the current crop of russians at the top, the ones in the top 10, reaching YEC, winning titles by these i include bovina and petrova even. behind them are talented girls who were expected to maybe to a bit better this year than they did (douchevina, kirilenko, safina) and a couple who did better than expected (chakvetadze, linetskaya). and also there were a few that really stepped up their play at the challenger level and are trying to get into slam qualies next year. so they have the numbers to really be the dominant nation in the wta.

but i think if they are to dominate again then it will be the same players rather than the young ones stepping it up. the young ones have the talent but they are maybe a bit behind in their progress/development than we thought so they may come along later but for me personally if someone like kirilenko or douchevina stepped it up and got into the top 20/30's i would be surprised. i think safina has a chance to get up there tho.

they will have their chances but will they take them or wont they? wimby is a good chance for sharapova and kuznetsova. the oz open doesnt really suit the russians but i think bovina probably has the best chance out of any of them there. RG they are all good at ie zvonareva, myskina, petrova, kuznetsova, dementieva, sharapova can even play on the dirt. so numbers wise and factoring in that it isnt the best surface for the williams sisters or lindsay, or capriati and mauresmo seems to have trouble playing their that might be there biggest opportunity to win a slam. us open, kuznetsova and dementieva probably have the best chances out of the russians.

really depends tho on how well they can back up and what the young talent does and how the other top players recover from their 2004 year.

Gowza
Dec 10th, 2004, 01:06 AM
dont forget players like sprem, golovin, na li, ivanovic, vaidisova, karatantcheva, and juniors like krajicek may also be a factor during the year.

PatM04
Dec 10th, 2004, 01:17 AM
Right now America's biggest hopes for the future are Gullickson, Marcio and Mueller....of the three Marcio has made the biggest strides this year.

Gowza
Dec 10th, 2004, 01:28 AM
gullickson was looking good a couple of years ago and has gone on the wayward. mueller was looking good last year and start of this year and ended up having not such a great year. marcio dont know any of her results but she was doing ok in juniors a couple years ago.

i havent seen any young americans play, haynes and jamea jackson are the only other ones i can think of and maybe the uberoi sisters. ally baker and cory ann avants were looking like quite good prospects, kind of sucks a bit for the US there.

Mana
Dec 10th, 2004, 02:54 AM
Only Nadia will...

azinna
Dec 10th, 2004, 03:00 AM
To my mind a repeat of the Russian 2004 depends on 4 Ifs:

(a) if they can handle the considerable pressure of being targets rather than bullets (defending trophies, improving while on top, etc);

(b) if they stay injury-free;

(c) if Lindsay, Justine, Serena, Venus, Amelie, Kim continue to be unable to muster their top form when it most counts (whatever the excuse: inopportune injury, confidence or committment issues, etc);

(d) and if the young challengers don't themselves mature enough to have a great two-three weeks at the right time

All four are pretty big IFs. Too big if you ask me. I think what we're going to see is a bit of a mix. The Russians will continue to form a presence at the Top and at the latter part of the Slams. But 4 out of the 7 major titles (counting, YEC, IW and Ericcson)? Unlikely. Unless, of course, the stars align and the IFs pan out.

beauty_is_pink
Dec 10th, 2004, 03:09 AM
they're not finish yet ;)

sabandborg
Dec 10th, 2004, 03:59 AM
Go Russia!

'xcept Mysinka who is a genuine backbiter.

Daniel
Dec 10th, 2004, 07:39 AM
Go Russia :bounce: :D

_LuCaS_
Dec 10th, 2004, 11:37 AM
Go Russia!

'xcept Mysinka who is a genuine backbiter.

Well, Russia's hopes for an encore rely much on Myskina's performances.
:worship: The Czarina :worship: rules, genuine backbiter or not.

bandabou
Dec 10th, 2004, 12:13 PM
Russian domination is not just about numbers. There are plenty of Americans and other Europeans in the Top 1000. It's about the quality and drive of the girls who are playing.

Basically the Americans have a problem with only Shenay Perry of the 20-and-under class, being in the Top 100, with most of the rest of their top players rapidly ageing. Of the middle group, is it getting too late for players like Marissa Irvin, Laura Granville and Meghann Shaughnessy to reach the very top? German womens tennis seems to have followed Britain into collapse. The Italians and Spanish are producing few likely champions, and the Belgians are too dependent on just two players. Only France and a scattering of Eastern Europeans look like big prospects for the future.

So preventing Russian domination next year depends on a group of injury-prone players comprising Justine, Kim, Venus, Serena, Lindsay, Jennifer and Amelie, as well, of course as Alicia and tati.

My money is on the Russians :D


Don´t knock on wood.....I remember how everybody was raving on Kim, the last player to play even come close to the number of tournaments the russians averaged this year, in 2003 for being so fit and stuff....we all saw what happened next.

And the russians are starting to show the same signals: Myskina has a bad ankle, Maria had to withdraw from tournaments with a bad shoulder ( although that was just an excuse to rest for the YEC it appears now), etc..

**Jelica**
Dec 10th, 2004, 12:28 PM
The Russians for sure can be dominating, but I think they will dominate with other players, if you see how I mean. Like, the Russsian players, and a few other players like Davenport and Henin-Hardenne will dominate.

katiektc
Dec 10th, 2004, 12:28 PM
i dont think the russian domination will be as noticeable as last year,where it took everyone by surprise, but i do think they will win at least 2 of the majors, most likely the FO and USO.
i think americans in the future will not compare to the talent of russians in the future for sure.
the tier I and tier II's will most likely be dominated by the russians.
myskina/dementieva/sharapova will be key this year for russian domination. but bovina/zvonereva/kuznetsova will have to improve to be in with a chance to help dominate.

SzavayFi
Dec 10th, 2004, 12:42 PM
Nadia and Elena will break out of their shells! :D

goldenlox
Dec 10th, 2004, 02:48 PM
b. it's funny how when Justine and Kim are not around is when this domination started. Atleast before Serena and Venus took their injury break after Wimbledon, Justine has already won a GS and 3 other Tier II or above titles (two of which are Tier I) and Kim has won 2 Tier Is and was a finalist in another one. The Russians didn't really do anything until everyone was too beat up to contest them. I love the Russians but when all they win are Tier III or below (except for Myskina and Bovina) and then losing to Amelie or Lindsay 6-1 6-1 in higher Tier events, that's not a domination.

in Justine's last 2 tournaments healthy (IW and AI) she defeated 4 Russians.
I hope Kim and Justine are both healthy in 2005. Also Serena and Venus.
The more competition, the better.

serenafan08
Dec 10th, 2004, 03:13 PM
I don't think that the Russians will continue to dominate next year - there will be too many players with something to prove next year that will prevent them. The player that has the best chance of taking them down is Serena - she has a winning record against everyone except Maria. However, while some argue that Maria has Serena's number (which is a ricidulous argument), she's only 1-2 against Maria. I think that Lindsay can take them all down if she plays with the same confidence that she did this year - I really think that Lindsay could dominate herself if she plays at this level. LD and Serena are my two picks to break up the Russian block-party. But, Venus and Jennifer will both be back with a vengance next year because both of them had a lackluster '04. Sure, while Jennifer beat Serena three times out of four, she still didn't win a tournament. Venus only won two tournament, and both of them were on clay. She went out of every Grand Slam in the first week - and lost every match in straight sets. Both of them will be back next year. Justine and Kim will also be on the prowl to stop the Russian dominance. The same thing that happened to Serena and Venus will happen to the Russians - the dominant run has to end sometime. I'm not saying the Russians will be injured for eight months, but their dominance won't go unchallenged.

DEETHELICK
Dec 10th, 2004, 03:25 PM
I hope everyone is healthy and competitive. I do believe that the Russinas need to defeat Williams x 2 and the Belginas consistently to prove that they are the real deal. Nastya and Elena D should have beaten Serena at the YEC. And they didnt.

Thats a gaping hole in the mental stakes. Gamewise the Russians can handle the pace and fitness levels of the 4 mentioned above. They can move as well (except Maria but she compensates with a very aggressive game) and can hit the ball hard (Elena and Maria being the biggest hitters off both wings).

Russian domination will continue if the Russians believe in it themselves. It will be a very tough year for Nastya, Sveta, Elena and Maria. There is a lot to live up to.

I think Nastya will do well next year. Maria will achieve success. I would love for Elena to do well, but I can never tell. I am hoping she can fix the kinks in her game (mental and serve). Sveta I expect to fall.

I hope Vera and Bovina pick up their games a little more too. I have more faith in Bovina doing that though as she has some great tools.

katiektc
Dec 10th, 2004, 03:32 PM
i remember watching lena bovina defeating venus williams at a charity exhibition match in dublin in dec 2002...i was realli impressed with her.it was a US vs Europe event,and bovina gave europe its only point as they were drilled 8-1.
i have been wondering why bovina has taken so long to make an impact on the tour.maybe 2005 is her year.
its also interesting to note that if that same event took place now the score would be extremely different, maybe europe <mainly russia!> def. US 8-1.
i think masha will have a good year (:rolleyes:) but not a grand slam. i think the same for nastya. i really hope lena finally gets a slam and kuzzie will probly not win a slam but have a good year.
i think the slams will be won by either the williams/davenport/belgians or an odd russian or 2. or more likely, 4 newcomers or players who havnt won a slam before wil win them all.
it will be a very interesting year.

10nisfanofruz
Dec 10th, 2004, 04:27 PM
I believe that top5 will be all russians next year. <Kim won't return soon cos of the injury / Lindsay may retire after AO/ Serena will be married :unsure: >
A russian will rise to No.1 ranking for sure next year. ;)
Another russian will win a Grand Slam. :lick:

--Of course Russian will continue to dominate the tour in 2005.--
:bounce: :worship: :bounce: :worship:

Sam L
Dec 10th, 2004, 09:01 PM
Guys, NO russian will win a slam next year.

Unless you're talking Russian MALE that is Safin. :hehehe:

Jaime Bahena
Dec 10th, 2004, 10:22 PM
Pardon me for posting something I posted previously, but it seems apropriate to this thread. According to the figures below (which I compiled), not only do the Russians look good for the next few years, America looks pretty weak. On Nov 1, 04 there were 6 Russians under 20 years old ranked in the top 100. There were NO Americans! This does not bode well for the future of American tennis or for the WTA Tour. Sponsors will start fading away if there are no American stars on the tour.

http://www.mfwweb.com/tennis/Misc/Aging.jpg



Damned Russians, and their steroids. Damn them all!!! BTW, anybody see Rocky III? Ivan Drago vs. Rocky? Is that how Serena felt at 2004 Wimbledon?

katiektc
Dec 10th, 2004, 10:58 PM
i think you'll find that was rocky IV....;)

Teemu
Dec 11th, 2004, 01:28 AM
I think Masha will be no.2 at the end of 2005. Only 2 russians in the top5 though, Elena if she gets her serve together or else Myskina. Kuznetsova will drop outside top 10. Vera still won't break through to top10...too bad. Still 3 russians in top10 atleast.

Ravsieg
Dec 11th, 2004, 01:32 AM
Ivan Drago is a Russian name, yeah right :tape:

Doc
Dec 11th, 2004, 02:17 AM
If the Russians stay healthy, its hard to see enough high-level opposition next year to prevent the domination continuing.

The "Big Four" non-Russians: Justine, Momo, Serena and Lindsay, are the main challengers to the Russians, and all have appeared fragile lately.

sabandborg
Dec 11th, 2004, 03:30 AM
Russia's hopes for an encore rely much on Myskina's performances.

Russia's best hopes do rely on Anastasia ----> So true.

I'm still hopeful she can buy some personality.

Josh810
Dec 11th, 2004, 04:17 AM
Hah, you kidding? She's nothing but personality.

Harju.
Dec 11th, 2004, 06:31 AM
Next year is French domination ;).

Momo, Dechy, Golovin, Pierce, Loit, Bartoli, Razzano, Beltrame, Foretz, Pin, Cohen-Alero, Pitchet and Fedessova.

Well it's just me. :haha: