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View Full Version : Can Maria Sharapova become #1 in the world if she wins Australian Open?


Old_Folk
Nov 29th, 2004, 08:24 PM
She is number 4 seed in Melbroune, so I think she has a lot of chances to make it.
So for the mathematicians, is it possible?

tianitiani
Nov 29th, 2004, 08:50 PM
Don't Worry she is not going to win it. I guarantee you russian nuts.

jimbo mack
Nov 29th, 2004, 08:54 PM
but would she number 1 if she did? i wanna know too!! lol

sartrista7
Nov 29th, 2004, 09:03 PM
It would depend on how Davenport, Mauresmo and Myskina perform (both at the AO and at Sydney). In theory, yes, but it's a slim chance. I think Davenport would have to lose pretty early at both Sydney and the AO for Sharapova to pass her.

Pengwin
Nov 29th, 2004, 09:04 PM
but would she number 1 if she did? i wanna know too!! lol

where's GoDominique when you need him... :rolleyes:

GermanBoy
Nov 29th, 2004, 09:07 PM
Could Maria Sharapova be the new Britney Spears if she decides to start a singing career? :D Could she? Could she? :D :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Volcana
Nov 29th, 2004, 09:12 PM
The short answer is 'no', as long as Davenport and Mauresmo both play like top 50 players.

The technical answer is, 'sure'.

Here's what the points look like with the first three tournaments from last year dropped for the top four.

rk (proj) = rpts - wk1 - wk2 - AUS
-- ------ = ---- - --- - --- - --- -------------------------
01 (4324) = 4760 - 000 - 166 - 270 Lindsay Davenport
02 (4104) = 4546 - 000 - 226 - 216 Amelie Mauresmo
03 (3631) = 4012 - 000 - 079 - 302 Anastasia Myskina
04 (3464) = 3536 - 000 - 000 - 072 Maria Sharapova


It's only an 840 point gap.

Sharapova plays more than the three players ranked ahead of her (what exactly is the 'restriction' part of the AER, anyway?), but all have at least 17 tournaments. Davenport's 17th is 93, Mauresmo 1, Myskina 40, Sharapova 50. So whatever they gain, will be offset by SOME loss, except in Mauresmo's case.


Say Sharapova plays and wins Gold Coast and Sydney (On Rebound Ace. Oh yeah that's happening). And Davenport, Mauresmo and Myskina skip both. Now Sharapova is ahead of Myskina, and only 400-500 points behind Davenport. Then Davenport and Mauresmo both fail to make the final (which could easily happen), and Sharapova wins the whole tournament.

Voila! #1 Sharapova

vertigo
Nov 29th, 2004, 10:39 PM
Thanks Volcana!! (No realistic chance then for Sharapova)

Old_Folk
Nov 30th, 2004, 04:21 AM
Oh wow, thanks Volcana. Maybe she only has a small chance.
But didnt she win Wimbledon when she was not a favourite too? or YEC.
So maybe she can:).

Sharapower
Nov 30th, 2004, 06:13 AM
She's a favorite, for sure, she has the game and the guts to win it but the question mark for me is about her being able to cope with Melbourne tough conditions: the heat seems to bother Maria. She does well in UK or indoor tournaments but when it comes to playing outdoor, in the heat, she's in trouble, I don't buy the surface issue, the YEC surface is not that fast.
If she's capable of keeping up her physical shape, I definitely pick her as the winner. I think she is slightly above everyone as far as game is concerned, the YEC title probably boosted her confidence and she's aware that doing well in Melbourne is a great step towards the #1 spot so it's an extra-motivation if needed.
If she's consistent she could reach #1 by Indian Wells or Miami. She doesn't have that much to defend until the grass season.

loveactually
Nov 30th, 2004, 02:58 PM
The short answer is 'no', as long as Davenport and Mauresmo both play like top 50 players.

The technical answer is, 'sure'.

Here's what the points look like with the first three tournaments from last year dropped for the top four.

rk (proj) = rpts - wk1 - wk2 - AUS
-- ------ = ---- - --- - --- - --- -------------------------
01 (4324) = 4760 - 000 - 166 - 270 Lindsay Davenport
02 (4104) = 4546 - 000 - 226 - 216 Amelie Mauresmo
03 (3631) = 4012 - 000 - 079 - 302 Anastasia Myskina
04 (3464) = 3536 - 000 - 000 - 072 Maria Sharapova


It's only an 840 point gap.

Sharapova plays more than the three players ranked ahead of her (what exactly is the 'restriction' part of the AER, anyway?), but all have at least 17 tournaments. Davenport's 17th is 93, Mauresmo 1, Myskina 40, Sharapova 50. So whatever they gain, will be offset by SOME loss, except in Mauresmo's case.


Say Sharapova plays and wins Gold Coast and Sydney (On Rebound Ace. Oh yeah that's happening). And Davenport, Mauresmo and Myskina skip both. Now Sharapova is ahead of Myskina, and only 400-500 points behind Davenport. Then Davenport and Mauresmo both fail to make the final (which could easily happen), and Sharapova wins the whole tournament.

Voila! #1 Sharapova





I think u r working for WTA, :-) :bounce:

xan
Nov 30th, 2004, 03:53 PM
So No. 1 is possible - even if not that likely....

AMAZING!

Go Maria! :D

WTAaddict
Nov 30th, 2004, 03:55 PM
Its possible but no!!!!! not until be before clay season where anyone has a good shot to get number one from Davenport!!!!

wateva
Nov 30th, 2004, 03:56 PM
go maria!

Stamp Paid
Nov 30th, 2004, 04:08 PM
Wow.

bandabou
Nov 30th, 2004, 04:22 PM
She's a favorite, for sure, she has the game and the guts to win it but the question mark for me is about her being able to cope with Melbourne tough conditions: the heat seems to bother Maria. She does well in UK or indoor tournaments but when it comes to playing outdoor, in the heat, she's in trouble, I don't buy the surface issue, the YEC surface is not that fast.
If she's capable of keeping up her physical shape, I definitely pick her as the winner. I think she is slightly above everyone as far as game is concerned, the YEC title probably boosted her confidence and she's aware that doing well in Melbourne is a great step towards the #1 spot so it's an extra-motivation if needed.
If she's consistent she could reach #1 by Indian Wells or Miami. She doesn't have that much to defend until the grass season.


This what I call a fan!! so nice.....

Seems like lately you´ve been only talking about just one of your favs though. How come/

crouching
Nov 30th, 2004, 05:39 PM
At No. 5, Kuznetsova is only 3 points behind Sharapova, and doesn't have much to defend from the Down Under swing. Even Kuznetsova has a mathematical chance of becoming No. 1!

crouching
Nov 30th, 2004, 05:42 PM
Also, Dementieva at No. 6 with 3448 points is only 88 points behind Sharavpova. She lost in the first round of AO 2004, and also has a mathematical chance of becoming No. 1 if she wins AO 2005.

(Isn't all this "mathematical chance" stuff getting a bit too far-fetched sometimes?)

bandabou
Nov 30th, 2004, 05:46 PM
Hey good points crouching.....so maria´s ranking itself is in danger too.

crouching
Nov 30th, 2004, 05:54 PM
Even better... Serena didn't play at all for the first few months of 2004. A couple of high-scoring Tier II titles (e.g. Sydney, Paris Indoor, Antwerp, Doha, or Dubai - whatever her schedule includes) and the AO title could get Serena to No. 1 by March 2005 before Miami.... assuming everyone else plays badly.

See? More even more plausible yet far-fetched "mathematical chances"! :)

bandabou
Nov 30th, 2004, 06:09 PM
:lol: Ooh, those mathematical chances.....

Spunky83
Nov 30th, 2004, 06:25 PM
Hey good points crouching.....so maria´s ranking itself is in danger too.

;)

LOL...besides Rebound Ace might be a little bit too slow for Masha.

crouching
Nov 30th, 2004, 06:36 PM
Actually, I feel that, until someone comes wins one or two Grand Slams (plus maybe semis and finals of one or two more) and several Tier Is and IIs, the No. 1 ranked player is just the "most consistent over the previous 52 week".

Compare this to the recent past when Serena, Justine or Hingis were No. 1 for many weeks... At that time, the No. 1 player could actually claim to be the "dominant player over the previous 52 weeks".

So even if one of those 'mathematical chances' listed above does actually come true in early 2005, the No. 1 ranking still rings a little bit hollow....

fammmmedspin
Nov 30th, 2004, 07:49 PM
:lol: Ooh, those mathematical chances.....Its worse than that because the players above her can stay ahead by doing considerably less well and to overcome that lead with a good points total she would need the 200, 150 or 132 point players to play her - but if they get that far its probably enough to stop her getting to Number1 anyway:eek: Being ranked 4 has consequences.

fammmmedspin
Nov 30th, 2004, 08:01 PM
Actually, I feel that, until someone comes wins one or two Grand Slams (plus maybe semis and finals of one or two more) and several Tier Is and IIs, the No. 1 ranked player is just the "most consistent over the previous 52 week".

Compare this to the recent past when Serena, Justine or Hingis were No. 1 for many weeks... At that time, the No. 1 player could actually claim to be the "dominant player over the previous 52 weeks".

So even if one of those 'mathematical chances' listed above does actually come true in early 2005, the No. 1 ranking still rings a little bit hollow....
Though if a consistent player( Momo, Lindsay) actually won a GS they could be 1500 points ahead getting closer to 5500 points. on the other hand Myskina was not really there for 2 2004 GS after the Olympics and the FO and Kuznetsova has a big gap in her rankings where Wimbledon should be and could o better at two others. If they could remove their weaker GS performances and make QF or SF you could have 4 people at about lindsay's 4500 points total which would tell you you had 4 very good players taking each other's points. You can see Serena joining them too given she missed a GS and half a year and adding Justine might make it 6....

bandabou
Nov 30th, 2004, 08:24 PM
Next year should be interesting to watch all those rankings-movements.

mashenka best 1
Nov 30th, 2004, 08:44 PM
i like rankings

slide and jump

jump and slide

all like SNAKES + ladders... sssssooo coollll

selesbooz
Nov 30th, 2004, 08:54 PM
Sharapova has a better shot at being #1 then does Kuznetsova and Dementieva- Maria played poorly in the first part of the year. SHe does not have really any points to defent except Wim. and the YEC. if she can pull off and another slam and a few big tournments then she will end the year at #1. Davenport will not defend all the points that she got this year and Kuznetsova either.

Volcana
Nov 30th, 2004, 09:09 PM
Here's a bunch of players ranking points with the Janvier tournaments dropped.

rk (proj) = rpts - wk1 - wk2 - AUS
-- ------ = ---- - --- - --- - --- -------------------------
01 (4324) = 4760 - 000 - 166 - 270 Lindsay Davenport
02 (4104) = 4546 - 000 - 226 - 216 Amelie Mauresmo

03 (3631) = 4012 - 000 - 079 - 302 Anastasia Myskina
04 (3464) = 3536 - 000 - 000 - 072 Maria Sharapova
05 (3458) = 3533 - 075 - 000 - 000 Svetlana Kuznetsova
06 (3370) = 3448 - 000 - 076 - 002 Elena Dementieva
07 (3128) = 3128 - 000 - 000 - 000 Serena Williams

10 (2359) = 2359 - 000 - 000 - 000 Jennifer Capriati
09 (2316) = 2400 - 000 - 000 - 084 Venus Williams
11 (2177) = 2299 - 000 - 000 - 122 Vera Zvonareva
12 (1906) = 2022 - 116 - 000 - 000 Nadia Petrova
13 (1823) = 1971 - 000 - 000 - 148 Alicia Molik
-- ---- - --- - --- - --- -------------------------

08 (1598) = 2884 - 000 - 328 - 958 Justine Henin-Hardenne
15 (1510) = 1598 - 000 - 048 - 040 Elena Bovina
18 (1349) = 1452 - 039 - 064 - 000 Karolina Sprem (Canberra)

29 (1043) = 1043 - 000 - 000 - 000 Mary Pierce
27 (_937) = 1127 - 000 - 000 - 190 Tatiana Golovin
31 (_931) = _971 - 000 - 000 - 040 Daniela Hantuchova

22 (_664) = 1326 - 000 - 000 - 662 Kim Clijsters

drivevolley
Nov 30th, 2004, 10:45 PM
Thanks for that!!!

Chunchun
Dec 1st, 2004, 04:24 AM
hey Volcana, Sveta also played AO last year!

Jaime Bahena
Dec 2nd, 2004, 01:50 PM
Maria may not reach #1 ranking after the Aussie Open, but trust me, she'll get there soon. It's inevitable: look at her past year. The stars are aligned perfectly! She beat Serena twice in two finals. Who can claim to have done that?

MinnyGophers
Dec 2nd, 2004, 01:53 PM
it is possible.. just that her chances are next to none ( both Davey and Mauresmo would have to lose pretty early)

MinnyGophers
Dec 2nd, 2004, 01:57 PM
Maria may not reach #1 ranking after the Aussie Open, but trust me, she'll get there soon. It's inevitable: look at her past year. The stars are aligned perfectly! She beat Serena twice in two finals. Who can claim to have done that?

when she beats a "not-a-day-after-two-hours-and-a-half-three-setter- against-Momo-in-SF-Serena" or "-not-injured-serena" then we'll see :devil:
She can get there pretty soon if she plays like last year, but who's to say that it is inevitable? she can just get injured and boom everything is over.

Jaime Bahena
Dec 2nd, 2004, 02:16 PM
it is possible.. just that her chances are next to none ( both Davey and Mauresmo would have to lose pretty early)


Good, at least you admit that she's got a chance of winning.

MinnyGophers
Dec 2nd, 2004, 02:20 PM
Good, at least you admit that she's got a chance of winning.

i never said that she never would :rolleyes:
it's like saying it is possible for an unknown player to end up as number 1 in the world at the end of the year! It IS possible, but the chances are slim.
i'd say that Maria stands a chance, but it all depends on how Momo and Davenport perform. And don't count out Myskina either.

Jaime Bahena
Dec 2nd, 2004, 07:47 PM
when she beats a "not-a-day-after-two-hours-and-a-half-three-setter- against-Momo-in-SF-Serena" or "-not-injured-serena" then we'll see :devil:
She can get there pretty soon if she plays like last year, but who's to say that it is inevitable? she can just get injured and boom everything is over.

I like your quote, "she can get injured and boom everything is over." I can hear Kim and sistahs murmuring something like, "...tell me about it."

Jaime Bahena
Dec 2nd, 2004, 07:49 PM
i never said that she never would :rolleyes:
it's like saying it is possible for an unknown player to end up as number 1 in the world at the end of the year! It IS possible, but the chances are slim.
i'd say that Maria stands a chance, but it all depends on how Momo and Davenport perform. And don't count out Myskina either.


As long as there's a chance that Maria will win, that's all she needs. I'm sure that's all the top ten players need, a chance, right?

denzuko
Dec 2nd, 2004, 09:43 PM
If she won AO, she can be #1 , under these scenarios:

- Davenport only reached 3R, or worse... hmm
- Mauresmo only reached QF, or worse... no comment
- Other players don't matter

Mathematically speaking, let's just say points earned in GS around these numbers:

W: 950
F: 700
SF: 450
QF: 250
4R: 100
3R: 75

Borrowed from Volcana's ranking point, the results are:

Sharapova: 3464+950 = 4414
Davenport: 4324+75 = 4399
Mauresmo: 4104+250 = 4354
Myskina, if she reached F: 3631+700 = 4331

Even when that happened, still too close too call.
Still a chance, but slim.... veeeery slim.

The exact points of course depend on bonus points they earned from their opponents.
And some of them maybe playing before AO, so we better wait after those tournaments, and recalculate.
Her bigger chance to reach #1, maybe before or at RG (QF lost in '04).

But hey, I'm a sucker for dramatic, extravaganza, impossible, crazy little thing called fairy tale story, so...
Go Maria !

Tennis_Lover
Dec 14th, 2004, 12:28 AM
If she won AO, she can be #1 , under these scenarios:

- Davenport only reached 3R, or worse... hmm
- Mauresmo only reached QF, or worse... no comment
- Other players don't matter

Mathematically speaking, let's just say points earned in GS around these numbers:

W: 950
F: 700
SF: 450
QF: 250
4R: 100
3R: 75

Borrowed from Volcana's ranking point, the results are:

Sharapova: 3464+950 = 4414
Davenport: 4324+75 = 4399
Mauresmo: 4104+250 = 4354
Myskina, if she reached F: 3631+700 = 4331

Even when that happened, still too close too call.
Still a chance, but slim.... veeeery slim.

The exact points of course depend on bonus points they earned from their opponents.
And some of them maybe playing before AO, so we better wait after those tournaments, and recalculate.
Her bigger chance to reach #1, maybe before or at RG (QF lost in '04).

But hey, I'm a sucker for dramatic, extravaganza, impossible, crazy little thing called fairy tale story, so...
Go Maria !
Perfect!!

Volcana
Dec 14th, 2004, 04:18 AM
hey Volcana, Sveta also played AO last year!She lost inthe third round, and she plays so much, those results are not among her 17 best.

Jaime Bahena
Dec 15th, 2004, 04:13 PM
when she beats a "not-a-day-after-two-hours-and-a-half-three-setter- against-Momo-in-SF-Serena" or "-not-injured-serena" then we'll see :devil:
She can get there pretty soon if she plays like last year, but who's to say that it is inevitable? she can just get injured and boom everything is over.

Don't beat around the bush, as we Yanks say. You don't think Maria really "beat" Serena in those two matches. Did Maria really "beat" Venus in 2004, or was Venus injured or fatigued in some shape or manner? FYI: Alicia Molik didn't "beat" Maria in the Tier I final, because I heard Maria was suffering from an undisclosed medical ailment.

Jaime Bahena
Dec 15th, 2004, 04:16 PM
Don't Worry she is not going to win it. I guarantee you russian nuts.

I can hear the rest of the WTA tour thanking you very much for this sentiment. Masha is going read this post, and similar ones, and shove it down our throats. Thanks for nothing. I was pulling for Clijsters to make a comeback, but alas, somebody ruins it for me.

Bitter Blue Bong
Dec 15th, 2004, 04:51 PM
You don't think Maria really "beat" Serena in those two matches. Did Maria really "beat" Venus in 2004, or was Venus injured or fatigued in some shape or manner?

She definitely "beat" Serena at Wimbledon, but you can hardly say the same about the YEC with a straight face.

MinnyGophers
Dec 15th, 2004, 05:23 PM
Don't beat around the bush, as we Yanks say. You don't think Maria really "beat" Serena in those two matches. Did Maria really "beat" Venus in 2004, or was Venus injured or fatigued in some shape or manner? FYI: Alicia Molik didn't "beat" Maria in the Tier I final, because I heard Maria was suffering from an undisclosed medical ailment.

Serena's "undisclosed medical ailment" was a strained abdominal muscle.
Maria was lucky that Serena was injured at YEC, and still the match was pretty close because Rena never loses to the same player twice in a row.
As for Wimby, I do agree that Maria beat Serena fair and square, but Serena wasn't playing in top form probably because of her three setter with Momo the day before.
But I do admit that even if she was in top form it still would have been tough for Serena.
But YEC?? come on let's be serious.

Orion
Dec 15th, 2004, 05:46 PM
Its possible but no!!!!! not until be before clay season where anyone has a good shot to get number one from Davenport!!!!

I don't know, Davenport didn't play many clay-court events last year, so she doesn't have a lot of points to defend. If she even has a mediocre clay-court season, she can realistically hold on to number one. All she needs is a run to the 4th round or QF of Roland Garros, and she's set until Wimbledon, if there is no extraneous intervention...

Jaime Bahena
Dec 15th, 2004, 06:02 PM
Serena's "undisclosed medical ailment" was a strained abdominal muscle.
Maria was lucky that Serena was injured at YEC, and still the match was pretty close because Rena never loses to the same player twice in a row.
As for Wimby, I do agree that Maria beat Serena fair and square, but Serena wasn't playing in top form probably because of her three setter with Momo the day before.
But I do admit that even if she was in top form it still would have been tough for Serena.
But YEC?? come on let's be serious.
Time for you to be serious: Masha's three setter against Davenport could hardly have been labeled a picnic. I'm so sure it was all "strawberries and cream" for Masha, and her ability to pull out the match in the third set. Additionally, how did Serena get to two games from victory at the YEC, and let it slip through her fingers? Give Serena credit for being able to last ten games in the last set, and give Masha credit for being able to win a huge match in an American arena, against an American.

fammmmedspin
Dec 15th, 2004, 06:52 PM
Maria may not reach #1 ranking after the Aussie Open, but trust me, she'll get there soon. It's inevitable: look at her past year. The stars are aligned perfectly! She beat Serena twice in two finals. Who can claim to have done that?
Serena is the number 7. By that logic, Dementieva beat the number 2 twice last year and Myskina beat the number 1 twice.

YAHOO!!
Dec 15th, 2004, 10:52 PM
I saw that Wimbledon final between Maria and Serena. Take my word, Maria beat Serena fair and square.