There's just no room. If RG were held today, and everyone played, two of the top eight would find themselves facing Serena Williams and Amelie Mauresmo. In the fourth round. With Lindsay out, one of the top eight gets Hantuchova in the fourth round. It's DEEP out there.
So who stays top 10?
There's our current, healthy-enough-to-play nine.
Jenn, Venus, Serena, Martina, Kim, Jelena, Monica, Justine, Amelie
Then's there's the hospital corps
Of course the celebrity division
Out of respect, I have to mention a resurgent Arantxa, even though I don't think she can get back into the top ten. She's #14 now, we're approaching her best part of the year, and there are lot of injuries around. A couple finals and the right people lose early, she's #10.
That's 17 players. Who's NOT top ten this time next year?
* Arantxa back in the top 10 would be a shock, but a four-time GS winner in the top 20 should not be counted out.
* Mary Pierce is an easy pick, because she seems to get hurt every time she tries to comeback.
* Meghann hasn't shown she can beat any of the current top ten, except on occassion.
* Silvia - See Meghann
* Anna K. will not be rejoining the top 10 any time soon. Maybe everytime a flashbulb goes off she loses a point of tennis IQ. She's big, she's fast, she's strong, she's agile. So much athlete. but as a tennis player, well, you are what your ranking says you are. (And no, I was NOT one of those people saying Martina didn't deserve to be #1)
That leaves twelve. Currently on the outside looking in are Daniela and Sandrine.
Sandrine has two wins over Jenn in the past six months.
Daniela has her two just completed wins over Justine and Martina.
Leave us not to forget ....
Tulyaganova, Bedanova, Stevenson, Montolio, Demetieva and Schiavone. (Sharparova- Not top ten by this time NEXT year. Maybe by the END of next year.)
If Daniela is top ten, you only have nine other spots.
I'll share my picks later. How about yours?
Mar 17th, 2002, 01:50 PM
haha although i still don't reallly understand ur question but IMO i think Dokic will fall out of top10 replaced by Daniela :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
i mean she plays well but i think 2002 is not going to be her year base on her performance so far....
Mar 17th, 2002, 01:53 PM
If anyone ahs to fall out of the top ten to make room for Daniela it will be Justine or Jelena!
Mar 17th, 2002, 01:54 PM
Short-term, I'm picking Daniela to replace Amélie - simply because Amélie's #10, and to move higher than that Daniela will have to acquire a HUGE amount of points.
Long-term, i.e. this time next year - I suspect Davenport will be gone. Either she'll be a Mary Pierce-esque case with injuries causing her ranking to plummet, or she'll have retired. If she's really out til the US Open (which I doubt)...
Maria Sharapova won't make it to the top 10 until at least the end of 2004 and probably not then - the age restriction rules mean that she simply won't have enough tournaments to work with.
I doubt anyone else will make it into the top 10 by IW 2003 (bar catastrophic injuries). Elena Dementieva is still the strogest bet, but she doesn't look like getting her desire back any time soon. :sad: Alex Stevenson should be top 20 by the US Open, and should remain so til the end of her career, but I'm sceptical about a consistent top 10 placing.
:confused: about your inclusion of Montolio.
Mar 17th, 2002, 01:55 PM
..based on her [Dokic's] performance so far?
What performances would that be, cause there haven't been that many of them due to INJURY! ;)
losing to Kremer twice (once when - ahem - 'rusty', and once when obviously hampered by injury), and beating Monica once. That's all she's done this year!
Mar 17th, 2002, 02:01 PM
Zhao - If Daniela's top ten, someone has to drop out. Who?
All that other stuff was just pointing out that there are a LOT of players who could be ready to move into the top 10. As for Jelena, she plays a ton. That means she gets to drop a lot of poor performances. I rather doubt Justine, Kim or Jelena will drop out of the top ten, because they play more than the other top players. Venus, Serena, Amelie and Monica have to eat every bad loss, cause they don't get to drop any.
Mar 17th, 2002, 02:07 PM
with no disrepect to Dokic i think she will not do as well as i think the other 9 players in t0p10....(partly because of her injury that's what i meant)
true she beaten Monica but i suspect that was because Monica was exhausted after playing so many tournaments....furthermore she lost to Amelie in that final
2001 might be a good year for her.....first TierI tournament title n other fantastic results but she really have to get herself injury-free n be at her best or i think she will be replaced by Daniela
Mar 17th, 2002, 02:26 PM
Volcana - i don't know if u agree but....
well kim is coming back from her injury n next week's performance in Miami will determine whether she will do well but so far Amelie n Henin came close to beat Venus in previous matches n has some commendable results compare to Dokic
like i said i think she has to be injury-free n be at her best to stays at top10 or she might be forced doen the ranks against up-n-coming players like Daniela
Mar 17th, 2002, 02:36 PM
Well, a lot of people keep saying that Justine Henin is having a bad year... She has played 2 finals and a QF in GS, and only lost to Venus, Kim, Monica, and now to the Tier 1 winner Hantuchova. The last one could have been a bad result, but even Martina lost to rising star Daniela!
Still, she's the n°6 in the world if you take into account the results of 2002!
So I don't think you can say she will fall out of the top 10 in a near future...
Mar 17th, 2002, 03:10 PM
Justine won't fall out of the top 10, she plays alot of tournaments, and has consistant results in most of then. And like Volcana said, the players that play more, get rid of their worst losses. Henin and Dokic play too many tournaments to fall out of the top 10.
I would guess Amelie would fall out, and could be replaces by Testud, who seems to have a liking of disposing of the top players. And, it's clay season, this is where most europeans blossom, so I think we could see threats from Testud, Vicario(maybe) and other italians, sparniards.
By next year however, I think it could be Davenport, but I suspect it will more likely be Dokic. She doesn't play in Australia, which knocks off 4-5 tournaments she could play. And these injuries could be with her long enough to prevent her from playing more then 15 tournaments this year. Without Dokic playing like 25 tournaments a year, she won't stay in the top 10.
Mar 17th, 2002, 03:43 PM
March 17, 2002 Talk about it E-mail story Print
Hantuchova Sheds a Fear
Tennis: Playing her first tour final, Slovakian teenager overcomes self-doubt and Hingis to win Pacific Life Open.
By LISA DILLMAN, TIMES STAFF WRITER
INDIAN WELLS -- So often, victory has intimidated and eluded Daniela Hantuchova, costing her in the last year against the elite players in women's tennis.
When the slender 18-year-old from Slovakia faltered in Saturday's Pacific Life Open final against Martina Hingis, it became difficult to watch. But this time self-confidence, not self-destruction, carried the day as Hantuchova defeated Hingis, 6-3, 6-4, in 75 minutes.
When Hantuchova allowed a shot to drop on the line with the second-seeded Hingis serving at 3-5 in the second set, she was visibly dismayed. It was a rare rookie mistake. Hantuchova lost that game at love, but the past experiences of misery helped her rather than haunted her. She won the first point of the next game, resumed breathing and took the title on her second match point, rifling a backhand winner down the line. Having completed the biggest upset on the WTA tour since Meghann Shaughnessy defeated Venus Williams last summer at Stanford, a stunned Hantuchova dropped her racket and put her hands over her face, basking in the applause at Indian Wells Tennis Garden. She jogged over to celebrate with her jubilant parents, Marianna and Igor, who had flown in from Bratislava on Friday night.
"For me, it's like dream coming true because this was my first final ever in such an important tournament and playing one of the greatest players, beating her the way I did today was just unbelievable for me," said Hantuchova, who won $332,000.
"That was always my dream to have both [parents] at my first final. So I'm very happy my dad came, too, that they were both watching my match."
Said Hingis: "Oh, she just played very fearless, had nothing to lose. I had a few opportunities, which I didn't take, especially early in the set and she was hitting those lines. I'm like, 'OK, not much I can do about that.'"
Hingis, 21, thought about it some more. She had hit a strange note in the on-court ceremony, twice mentioning the possibility of revenge against Hantuchova, who was poised and classy in her acceptance speech.
"When I was 18, I was fearless too, I guess," Hingis said, laughing.
Hantuchova was appearing in her first final, acting as though it was her 40th, not her first. She was broken in the opening game but came back and broke Hingis. In all, she broke Hingis' serve six times. Passivity was never part of her game plan. Hantuchova's smooth yet powerful groundstrokes continually caught the lines, keeping Hingis off balance and unable to read her shots.
She had 20 backhand winners to five for Hingis. It was just as one-sided on the forehand side, as Hantuchova had 10 winners to three for Hingis.
Nigel Sears, who has coached Hantuchova since the middle of last year, kept the game plan simple.
"I said, 'Look, if you want to win this match, you've got to take it to Martina, you've got to hit her off the court,'" he said. "The people that beat Martina are the people that hit her off it. You're not going to win it if you get sucked into her game. I said, 'I really want you to take some risks, and go for it.' There's a balance on how much you give away when you're going for it.
"She has the game to do it. The people that give Martina problems are the Williamses [Venus and Serena], [Lindsay] Davenport, [Kim] Clijsters, people who go for it. People who try and rally with her, they get beaten every time. So that wasn't an option."
Hantuchova will move to No. 17 when the new rankings are released. She said the final was her best match because of the magnitude of the tournament and the opponent.
"I was believing from the first point that I can beat her," Hantuchova said. "I was just trying to do the right things, just to follow the tactics that were set up before the match. And it worked out."
As always, the final points were the most difficult. Serving for the title at 5-2, she missed two forehands and two backhands.
"I was a bit nervous at this point because I knew I was four points away from winning such a big tournament," Hantuchova said.
Sears was unsettled in his courtside seat, as were Hantuchova's parents.
"How many [chances] do you get against Martina Hingis?" Sears said. "Because she's got so much experience and you always got to feel, if you blow an opportunity, it might come back and bite you.
"When she lost that game at 5-2, it was stressful. But she hung on and I thought she deserved to win because she did dominate and kept her head together. What can you say? I'm absolutely thrilled."
Mar 17th, 2002, 04:09 PM
Great article! Thanks.
My guesstimate in the short term would be that Amelie drops out of the top ten. There is a huge point gap between 10 and 11 (600+). Where is Amelie anyway? She has big points to defend coming up. Long term it's hard to say who will exit the top ten. Too many injuries already this year.
Mar 17th, 2002, 05:56 PM
I just started a thread along these lines. I think it's a great subject to talk about.
Without saying that I think Dani will reach and stay in the Top 10, I can say who I think would be the one to fall out. And that is Henin.
It's not because of Henin's playing skills, for I think she's up there with the best of them. It's because I wonder if she's currently able to handle the pressure of being expected to win. I think that's the greatest challenge of making and staying in the Top 10.
Mar 17th, 2002, 06:01 PM
You can only have 10 players in top 10 at one time
if she had come along around even 5 years ago she would already be there.
Daniela doesn't have much to defend until late in year, what she has now until around US Open can be handled with one win at an event to stabilize her in ranks, anything else will push her upwards but she will do more than just win one match at an event.
Seems a year has done wonders
last yr here she lost to Rita Kuti Kis in 1r and Jana Nejedly in Miami 1st rd.
Mar 17th, 2002, 07:27 PM
Meesh, Amélie skipped IW and Miami this year, as she did last year, to start training on clay. She'll be defending her titles at Amelia Island and Berlin, and also her points from Charleston and Rome. I admit she'll have to do well this spring (she's got 1200 points to defend :eek: ), though with RG and beyond it's pretty smooth sailing. So far this year she's been doing well: 2 QF's, 2 semis and a tournament victory.
I was so impressed with Daniela yesterday, but we'll have to wait and see how she does in Miami and the clay court tourneys. Yes, she is top ten material, but the question is when.
Mar 17th, 2002, 09:11 PM
I have a horrible feeling that it could well be between Mauresmo and Dokic cos I think Serena will play if she's about to dip down the rankings
She moans about being only world number 9 though and says: I should be higher than that! It's stupid!
No it's not love! You need to play more tournies that you are! Silly girl ;) No offence but well... yeah... that's my point... Hmmm...
Mar 18th, 2002, 12:01 AM
Serena just recently returned to the tour from an injury. She won her first tournament back :rolleyes:
Mar 18th, 2002, 12:50 AM
Serena will be #9 after IW because she just didn't play! but she was #6 before that! And after Miami, that's where she'll be again!
As for the one who would drop of the top10 in case of a Hantuchova sneaking in, I'd say Dokic......injuries, lots of points to defend, low confidence....Amelie is too good to be out of the top10! She has tons of points to defend but she 's having a pretty good and consistent year so far.....besides she doesn't need to go all the way to the finals at RG to grab some free points.So all these points she might lose before RG will be taken back after the french open......don't expect her to fall 2 years in a row in her home-crowd!!!!!!:bounce:
And Hantuchova has not only the material to be in the top10 very soon but also the maths to go with it!!!! If you just have a look at what is going to happen next week, Hantuchova has a big chance to be at least #14 after Miami! Dementieva is gonna lose big next week , Tauziat will fall a little bit more (her presence in the top20 is ridiculous now!) and Testud had withdrawn already (injury).
After Miami she'll probably be 3 spots away from the #11! And she's also scheduled to play Amelia Island where she doesn't have any points to defend so she'll be just adding!!!
If she keeps it up, she'll be #11 or maybe top10 at the end of the year!:bounce:
Mar 18th, 2002, 02:12 AM
I think it's too soon to say about Daniela being in top 10... of coz' she has the quality... and I like her very much as well!!!
Ted of Teds Tennis
Mar 18th, 2002, 03:22 AM
Remember that Seles has no points to defend at KB, so a reasonable result for her probably gets her to #6 ahead of Serena, who IIRC lost in the quarters last year to Capriati. For Serena to get back to #6, she'd have to have Seles lose early, and win the tournament, I believe.
She also has more points to defend than Henin, although who knows how Henin will do on what is probably the worst surface for her.
I don't know which player will fall out of the Top 10. It depends on when Davenport is able to come back from her injury. If she can't come back until the US Open, it will probably be her. Mauresmo is a candidate as well in that she doesn't play nearly enough to keep up a very high ranking, although she can gain a lot of points at RG.
The interesting thing about the WTA Tour right now is that there are really more than 10 players who have the stuff to get into the Top 10. In addition to the current Top 10, you've got Hantuchova, and probably Dementieva, considering she missed almost the entire clay season last year, which I think has really set her back. And we'll get to see what some of the folks a bit further down the rankings, like Iroda, Bedanova, and Stevenson, can do.
Mar 18th, 2002, 06:52 AM
Unlikely (impossible) candidated to be removed:
Venus - Just too many points
Jennifer - Just too many points
Martina - Just too many points
Lindsay - She has no more points to defend till Wimbledon, till then, she has too many points to be overtaken
Serena - She has no points to defend till RG, and this year she has increased her schedule.
Kim - Probably not, her points are well distributed throughout the year, so failure to defend some points can be easily made up. Further more, excluding RG, she has hardly any points to defend in the clay court season.
Monica - Nothing to defend till after Wimbeldon.
Justine - She is playing badly and if she doesn't defend her RG semi and Wimbledon final, she'd be the likely candidate.
Jelena - most of her points are at the end of the year, so it is very unlikely she gets overtaken now.
Amelie - She has many points to defend in the clay court season, but that's about a great portion of her points left to defend for a good part of the season. But Daniela may not be able to earn enough points during the clay court season to overtake Amelie, so it is unlikely too.