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View Full Version : Does Venus have to win Berlin to be considered a favorite for RG?


moon
May 2nd, 2004, 02:14 PM
As far as I'm concerned, she could have a fluke loss to someone she has never played before in Berlin, and she would still be the favorite.

Please note, I'm not saying she WILL win Roland Garros, but from what I've seen she has a strong chance. Unless Venus pulls up lame in Berlin, she's my pick to win RG. Throw into that all the injuries of the other top tenners. They have hardly played any matches on the red stuff. Clay is the one surface you have to make extra preparations for IMO. You just can't go into a Slam underprepared on the red stuff.


So I guess my 2 questions are:
Now, do you think she can win RG now?
Will you think she can win RG IF she wins Berlin?
What say you?

VeNuS#1LoVa
May 2nd, 2004, 02:17 PM
It'll be interesting to see her match vs. Kim, if, they both get there. I think Venus would beat her and that would be a huge confidence booster, so I think yes, Berlin is still a determining factor on Vee's chances in Paris...

Do it Vee :wavey:

Pureracket
May 2nd, 2004, 02:18 PM
Her health is obviously the #1 factor in how she does in the FO(=), but I always have a mild concern about Venus's rhythm. Once she gets the momentum in the tourney, she seems to be fine; however, she seems very vulnerable @ the beginning of these tournaments.

I'm thinking about the fact that she lost a set in her 1st rd match to Samantha Reeves @ the FCC, and then she lost a set to Zuluaga in Warsaw. Both of these matches were her first matches of the tournament, and she lost the first set in both.

Paneru
May 2nd, 2004, 02:18 PM
I think she is a definite contendor
and most def. can win!

I don't think she has to win Berlin to be consider one,
mostly because she's been playing every week, though
she has had ample time to rest in between.

I think she'll do well but I don't think she has to win.
Although, it would be good for her in some's eyes if she could
beat Clijsters and/or Mauresmo.

Good Luck Venus! :wavey:

VeNuS#1LoVa
May 2nd, 2004, 02:20 PM
Hi Kabuke & Pureracket!

I need to start meeting more Venus fans... :wavey:

Paneru
May 2nd, 2004, 02:20 PM
Hey! :cool: :wavey:

Pureracket
May 2nd, 2004, 02:20 PM
Hi Kabuke & Pureracket!

I need to start meeting more Venus fans... :wavey:;) Hello there.

Experimentee
May 2nd, 2004, 02:21 PM
I dont think Venus is THE favourite for RG. However she is one of the favourites, and it wouldnt change even if she lost 1st rd in Berlin. Berlin does not really matter anymore since she's already had a lot of match practice on clay and is in good form, it only matters to gain more points to get into the top 10.

GoDominique
May 2nd, 2004, 02:21 PM
moon, a question:
The thread title says "a favorite", in the post it's "the favorite". So what is it? :confused:

TeeRexx
May 2nd, 2004, 02:27 PM
I think that VENUS is very capable of winning RG now because:

1. She is apparently at least 90% healthy.

2. VENUS is playing fine tennis

3. She is playing fine clay court tennis

4. SERENA still has a slight knee problem.

5. Kim has yet to battle test her ailing wrist.

6. JHH has yet to fully recover from her virus.

7. And VENUS has beaten most of the remaining top players that she has faced.

8. Her serve has improved, finally.

9. She has the greatest fan support on the tour

10. Finally, she is probably dedicating this year to her deceased sister.

That's why I think that VENUS will take the RG title this year. :cool:

"Topaz"
May 2nd, 2004, 02:39 PM
Her health is obviously the #1 factor in how she does in the FO(=), but I always have a mild concern about Venus's rhythm. Once she gets the momentum in the tourney, she seems to be fine; however, she seems very vulnerable @ the beginning of these tournaments.

I'm thinking about the fact that she lost a set in her 1st rd match to Samantha Reeves @ the FCC, and then she lost a set to Zuluaga in Warsaw. Both of these matches were her first matches of the tournament, and she lost the first set in both.Right on!

She's already a favorite for RG, Berlin notwithstanding. Her health is the key determinant (as always for that matter).

LindsayRulez
May 2nd, 2004, 02:55 PM
She is definitely A favorite, but not THE favorite.

SerenaSlam
May 2nd, 2004, 03:00 PM
well put it like this, When amelie won this tournie last year, she was officially a favorite, but she then followed it up with semis and finals in Berlin and Rome. So I think she is a favoirte, but Berlin will put an "!" on the whole damn deal. I think Amelie is second, b/c no one else even Justine hasn't to me found their range or comfortable level on the clay yet.

spencercarlos
May 2nd, 2004, 03:11 PM
I think that VENUS is very capable of winning RG now because:1. She is apparently at least 90% healthy.

2. VENUS is playing fine tennis

3. She is playing fine clay court tennis

4. SERENA still has a slight knee problem.

5. Kim has yet to battle test her ailing wrist.

6. JHH has yet to fully recover from her virus.

7. And VENUS has beaten most of the remaining top players that she has faced.

8. Her serve has improved, finally.

9. She has the greatest fan support on the tour

10. Finally, she is probably dedicating this year to her deceased sister.

That's why I think that VENUS will take the RG title this year. :cool:
1)She is phisically better now yes, at least she has been able to finish matches and tournaments.
2)She is playing better, still not sure yet if it will be enough to win a slam, she has played better in previous years i think and still has not won one since 01.
3)I think its the same as the second, Venus is playing well, but definetly she is not a clay courter, i would not say she is becoming a claycourt especialist IMO, still her talent allows her to beat any player on this surface.
4)This is something you don`t know, you`ll have to wait for Serena to play in Rome and see if she shows there, right now I THINK she withdrew from the Charlesston and Fed Cup due to prevention, at least she did not played that many long matches as she won her matches with ease in Amelia Island and the one in Charleston and also lost easily to Petrova, i just don`t think she reinjured her knee. Still Rome will tell.
5)Well see about Kim in Berlin, she played fed cup and won some good matches.
6)At least yes, but with Henin you never know, right now she is a Question Mark, i think the next few weeks will be crucial for Justine.
7)Well i think her wins over Vera Zvonareva, Conchita and today over Kuznetsova are great, but still none of this players have been close to win the Grand Slams lately, even with the Williams sisters out.
8)Her serve improved?..hmm have to see it, it`s hard because Venus has had always great pace on her serve, still we have to see how her second serve is doing, anyway on clay this does not matter as much as on other surfaces.
9)I won`t comment on this this... depends where she is playing.
10)Well, who knows probably is Serena who showed her how to win an event after coming from such a long lay off :p. None the less to win a slam recently :worship: Serena.

TO BE CONTINUED

LindsayRocks89
May 2nd, 2004, 03:27 PM
I do think she's a favorite, i would also say Amelie and Lindsay could be considered favorites, i mean if Kim, Justine, and Serena are healthy when Roland Garros starts then they will be considered favs to

Knizzle
May 2nd, 2004, 03:37 PM
I think she is a favorite already, but I think she needs to win Berlin to be considered the TOP favorite.

Jericho
May 2nd, 2004, 03:43 PM
if Venus is only "A" favorite, then who is "THE" favorite :confused:

dreamgoddess099
May 2nd, 2004, 03:50 PM
if Venus is only "A" favorite, then who is "THE" favorite :confused:
Good question. Who esle is playing better on clay right now?

fammmmedspin
May 2nd, 2004, 03:50 PM
1. Favourites tend not to win the FO - see Momo, Hingis, Martinez, Williams V....

2. When no one has seen any of the other main contenders ,picking a favourite is a little difficult. They could all be awful or one or two of them might be on form. If their form changes as they come back it makes point 1 more relevant.

Volcana
May 2nd, 2004, 03:54 PM
She doesn't have to win Berlin to be consider A favorite to win Roland Garros.

She does have to win Berlin to be considered THE favorite to win Roland Garros.

Certainly she CAN win Roland Garros. She's playing well on clay now, and she made the final two years ago. We have to see what the other players in the game are bringing to the table. Obviously the last three weeks didn't make the other contenders say 'guess we don't have to worry about Venus'.

Bezz
May 2nd, 2004, 03:58 PM
She doesn't have to win Berlin to be consider A favorite to win Roland Garros.

She does have to win Berlin to be considered THE favorite to win Roland Garros.

Certainly she CAN win Roland Garros. She's playing well on clay now, and she made the final two years ago. We have to see what the other players in the game are bringing to the table. Obviously the last three weeks didn't make the other contenders say 'guess we don't have to worry about Venus'.
Yeah i agree, venus is top 4 material and everyone knows it, so a win at berlin or a good showing will defintely make her the one to beat. It would be interesting to see if she can beat Serena at RG if they have to meet :cool:

spencercarlos
May 2nd, 2004, 04:30 PM
1)She is phisically better now yes, at least she has been able to finish matches and tournaments.
2)She is playing better, still not sure yet if it will be enough to win a slam, she has played better in previous years i think and still has not won one since 01.
3)I think its the same as the second, Venus is playing well, but definetly she is not a clay courter, i would not say she is becoming a claycourt especialist IMO, still her talent allows her to beat any player on this surface.
4)This is something you don`t know, you`ll have to wait for Serena to play in Rome and see if she shows there, right now I THINK she withdrew from the Charlesston and Fed Cup due to prevention, at least she did not played that many long matches as she won her matches with ease in Amelia Island and the one in Charleston and also lost easily to Petrova, i just don`t think she reinjured her knee. Still Rome will tell.
5)Well see about Kim in Berlin, she played fed cup and won some good matches.
6)At least yes, but with Henin you never know, right now she is a Question Mark, i think the next few weeks will be crucial for Justine.
7)Well i think her wins over Vera Zvonareva, Conchita and today over Kuznetsova are great, but still none of this players have been close to win the Grand Slams lately, even with the Williams sisters out.
8)Her serve improved?..hmm have to see it, it`s hard because Venus has had always great pace on her serve, still we have to see how her second serve is doing, anyway on clay this does not matter as much as on other surfaces.
9)I won`t comment on this this... depends where she is playing.
10)Well, who knows probably is Serena who showed her how to win an event after coming from such a long lay off :p. None the less to win a slam recently :worship: Serena.

TO BE CONTINUED
Edited finally!

moon
May 2nd, 2004, 04:48 PM
moon, a question:
The thread title says "a favorite", in the post it's "the favorite". So what is it? :confused:
THE favorite. :)

GoDominique
May 2nd, 2004, 04:55 PM
THE favorite. :)
Okay, then I strongly disagree. :)

NicoMary
May 2nd, 2004, 05:03 PM
If venus win in berlin she will be more than just a favorite....she will be on of the two main favorite....but who will be the second one? KIm, Amélie, Linsday or justine???

moon
May 2nd, 2004, 05:03 PM
Okay, then I strongly disagree. :)
Well then, what does she have to do to be considered THE FAVORITE???

Are you telling me that if she wins or even does well in Berlin that she's not considered the favorite?

GoDominique
May 2nd, 2004, 05:16 PM
Well then, what does she have to do to be considered THE FAVORITE???

Are you telling me that if she wins or even does well in Berlin that she's not considered the favorite?
Well first of all I don't think there will be THE favorite for the French Open as long as Venus, Serena, Kim and Justine (or at least 2 of them) are playing. If Venus is the only one playing, then she will be THE favorite.
If she wins Berlin then I might consider her THE favorite but it would still depend on Rome results.
If she only does well in Berlin ... well, what does that mean? Losing to Kim in the semis? If that happens then you can't call her THE favorite.

No, she has to win Berlin to have a shot at being considered THE favorite. :)

CJ07
May 2nd, 2004, 05:18 PM
Venus is already THE favourite going into RG, because who else would be?
However, that doesn't mean anything.

She could still lose at Roland Garros.

So all these wins are great, but they're not definate.

And for Venus's serve, her second serve is looking good, she's won an average of 55% or so on her second serve, its her first serve thats bothersome. She's winning a high percentage but low amount of aces.

Also, does anyone have the right stats for the Kuznetsova match?

WF4EVER
May 2nd, 2004, 05:19 PM
From the attitude of some people on this board she'd actually have to win it first to be considered a favourite.

OTOH, I don't care if she's 'considered' the favourite; I just want her to win. Both, if possible. (I'm greedy).

WF4EVER
May 2nd, 2004, 05:23 PM
if Venus is only "A" favorite, then who is "THE" favorite :confused:
I'm wondering the same thing. Loit?

harloo
May 2nd, 2004, 05:55 PM
I actually think Venus should skip Berlin, and don't get caught up in the favorite drama. She should rest a bit before RG, train everyday, and come into RG rejuvenated and full of confidence.

maryjane
May 2nd, 2004, 06:01 PM
when she plays well she can win everything so it doesn't depend on berlin but on the way she'll play the two weeks in paris.

Lady
May 2nd, 2004, 06:04 PM
Is it that great or important to be considered the favourite?? Last year Justine wasn't considered the favourite, it didn't stop her, right?
So if Venus wins Berlin, and is considered the favourite, will it make you feel any better if she wins or loses RG?
I just really wanna understand, what's so important about being the favourite??

hingis-seles
May 2nd, 2004, 06:28 PM
Venus was the favourite in 1999 when she won Hamburg and Rome. Look what happened.

There are no guaruntees. Anything can happen on a tennis court.

How's this for an odd pattern:

2000: RG & FCC Champ - Mary Pierce
2001: RG & FCC Champ - Jen Capriati
2003: RG & FCC Champ - Justine H-H

fammmmedspin
May 2nd, 2004, 07:24 PM
Well then, what does she have to do to be considered THE FAVORITE???

Are you telling me that if she wins or even does well in Berlin that she's not considered the favorite?Thats arguably the consequence of having so many great players injured or recovering. If Serena enters the FO looking fit she will be favoured over Venus because of all those lost GS. If Kim is OK and improving or Amelie or Justine look as if they might be back to form by the second week they might be some peoples favourites too. Its how you are in that second week that matters (assuming you don't get KOed early) and this year we may not see most of the top tens true form (if any) till then.

The wider point is that the FO tends not to let favourites win (unlike Wimbledon). If favourites won we wouldn't have had Majoli, ASV, Graf, Pierce, Capriati or Henin's name on the trophy after Graf's. In several of those cases the winner wasn't even a favourite by the SF and Graf in 99 wasn't a favourite until a ball flew long or didn't. If form clay players won we would have seen names like Martinez and Coetzer there too.

justine&coria
May 2nd, 2004, 08:28 PM
If Venus wins Berlin and beat Clijsters especially, my point of view is that she's among the favourites to win RG (with Justine, Serena, and Kim)

But you know, whatever she does, she'll never be considered as the favourite to win RG : the favourites will still be Justine and Serena (even if they're not at their best :o ).
It's not as if she's the dominant player Serena was 2 years ago, or Justine was last year on clay. And it's not as if she beat Justine/Serena/Kim/Mauresmo 2 times in a row on clay (of course, it's not Venus' fault but ...).

Anyway, Venus is among my favourites to win RG : and if Justine weren't to win it, then I'll support her.

ace4lleykim
May 2nd, 2004, 08:44 PM
No, she doesn't have to win Berlin, she's already a favorite like every tournament she plays.

Kart
May 2nd, 2004, 09:58 PM
So I guess my 2 questions are:
Now, do you think she can win RG now?
Will you think she can win RG IF she wins Berlin?
What say you?
I've always thought she could win RG.

See above.

Venus will never be the favourite for RG in my eyes until she actually wins it or until her sister and the Belgians are out. She's never demonstrated her best in Paris, else she'd have won it, where as the likes of Justine, Serena and even Kim (although she's also displayed her worst ;)) have. If any of those are in Paris they'll still be the players to beat IMHO.

Foot_Fault
May 2nd, 2004, 11:30 PM
I've always thought she could win RG.

See above.

Venus will never be the favourite for RG in my eyes until she actually wins it or until her sister and the Belgians are out. She's never demonstrated her best in Paris, else she'd have won it, where as the likes of Justine, Serena and even Kim (although she's also displayed her worst ;)) have. If any of those are in Paris they'll still be the players to beat IMHO.
Kim hasn't won it, and she's achieve the same results there as Venus has...A finalist, losing twice. She hasn't demostrated her best? Serena was the favorite the year she won it, and she hadn't won it, you don't have to WIN an event to be considered the Favorite to win it.

Kart
May 2nd, 2004, 11:42 PM
Kim hasn't won it, and she's achieve the same results there as Venus has...A finalist, losing twice. She hasn't demostrated her best? Serena was the favorite the year she won it, and she hadn't won it, you don't have to WIN an event to be considered the Favorite to win it.
In the last three French opens, Kim has been in the final twice. The year she didn't make it, she was unfit from what I understand. Anyway she wasn't far off being the champion in 2001 when she was a relative unknown. That's what I meant by her displaying her best (last year's final being her worst).

If Venus had demonstrated her best in Paris she'd have won RG.

As for Serena winning the French, I never said you have to win it to be the favourite. I still stand by my comment though, in my eyes, Venus will not be the favourite for the French until she's shown she can win it by doing so (thus giving her the confidence I think has prevented her from doing so thus far) or until the other three are out of contention.

~CANUCK~
May 2nd, 2004, 11:46 PM
Vee is a favorite in any tournament she plays. So no she doesn't need to win berlin to be a favourite. If she were to win berlin i think she might be the fav to win RG though.

maccardel
May 3rd, 2004, 01:35 AM
When Majoli won RG, was she considered a contender? When Pierce won it, was she considered a contender? Maybe at this RG, Dokic will surprise us all and win the whole damn thing, then would she be considered a contender for wimbledon? If Alexandra wins the whole shabang, would she be considered a contender for wimbledon or maybe if Hingis comes back or even if Monica comes back and wins it all will she be considered a contender for wimbledon? We could sit here all day and say that Venus is a contender for RG because she has won on the red stuff, but lets be for real; When she first came back and played in OZ, we all were saying that she would win the whole thing, but lets be for real, I have learned that you don't have any contenders or favorites for anything because the state of the game is so unpredictable today. I haven't heard anyone say that Lindsay is a favorite for the title. I mean she showed up at Amelia Island and won the thing against Amelie, who was tired, but be for real, she did win the title. I am not going to jinx my girl and say she is a favorite, I am just going to support her and hope she stays healthy throughout RG and Wimbledon and the hardcourts season.

WF4EVER
May 3rd, 2004, 04:04 AM
How about this/ If Venus pulls out of Berlin, which I and others expect that she will, will she still be considered 'a' favoutirte to win the FO?

Of course the whole argument about being a favourite bears no weight whatsoever on who actually wins the title.

moon
May 3rd, 2004, 09:50 PM
What I don't get is, why are Serena, Momo, Kimmy, and Justine considered to be favorites over Venus?

Justine won it last year, but she's been sick. It seems to me like people think will just roll out of bed and be able to win Roland Garros. I'd be really shocked if Justine wins it, with no lead in tourneys. She's good, but IMO she's not that good. Serena, same story. Momo has nowhere near the record in Paris that Venus has. Kimmy is just starting to play now. Venus is the only one we've seen play the last few weeks, and yet all these other people are supposedly favorites over her. She also have winning records over those 4, except for Rena. So it's not like people even have that to point to. Can somebody explain this to me?

btw--I don't really care about Vee being considere the favorite or not, but she's doing really well, but people still seem to be pretty reluctant to give her props.

Bright Red
May 3rd, 2004, 11:51 PM
I also think that Venus will be considered a favorite, but not the favorite to win RG regardless of whether or not she wins Berlin.

Serena came back and won her first tournament after injury. For that reason and given that Serena seems more confident, I'd place Serena as more likely to win than Venus.

Nobody's Perfecc
May 4th, 2004, 02:16 AM
No. Right now I'd say she's the favorite to win at the French Open. She has played the best on the dirt so far.

EDIT: I forgot to say that there's a big asterisk to what I said above. If Serena manages to streamroll through Rome and her knee isn't a problem, I'd consider her even with Venus. Why not above Venus? Because Venus seems very confident right now. She's playing her best tennis in a long time. And she's hungry for a grand slam.

fammmmedspin
May 4th, 2004, 02:31 AM
What I don't get is, why are Serena, Momo, Kimmy, and Justine considered to be favorites over Venus?

Justine won it last year, but she's been sick. It seems to me like people think will just roll out of bed and be able to win Roland Garros. I'd be really shocked if Justine wins it, with no lead in tourneys. She's good, but IMO she's not that good. Serena, same story. Momo has nowhere near the record in Paris that Venus has. Kimmy is just starting to play now. Venus is the only one we've seen play the last few weeks, and yet all these other people are supposedly favorites over her. She also have winning records over those 4, except for Rena. So it's not like people even have that to point to. Can somebody explain this to me?

btw--I don't really care about Vee being considere the favorite or not, but she's doing really well, but people still seem to be pretty reluctant to give her props.You made a good case. You may be right about Justine - Viruses linger I thought. Kim and Momo are unknowns healthwise but Venus herself shows how players can just turn up and do well. Jennifer may have been training hard - who knows? Lindsay might do well too without Kim or Justine or serena playing at 100%. Serena is an unknown (except to Venus) but if she was out there looking OK I think people would wonder why she wouldn't beat Venus in a GS again - it looked like long term dominance rather than multiple flukes. I think Venus is regarded as vulnerable on clay too given her FO record so people will recall she looked good before and didn't get too far (same applies to Momo) There is also the problem that you have to go through 4 rounds of top 20 players which is more demanding than doing it once or twice in recent tournaments. I think some people doubt her health too. Some weeks she looks magnificent - others like a candidate for an ER. No one knows about the knee the thigh the abdominal strain and what the relationship is with her war serve. After all those GS not won people will probably need her to win one to be convinced fully (that argument aplies to Momo and kim too).

AnDyDog621
May 4th, 2004, 02:32 AM
The title reallie should be changed to "Does Venus have to win Berlin to be considered THE favorite for RG?" cause Venus is the favorite to win any tournaments she entered and if u don't think she is a favorite to win any of the tournaments, i don't kno what to say to u...