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View Full Version : Will Serena overtake Chrissy for number one before the end of the 2004 season?


WhatTheDeuce
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:05 PM
Vote.

- L i n a -
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:06 PM
There's no poll...

And no, unless Christine gets injured and doesn't at least reach SF's and F's every week... Serena has no shot, even if she dominates.

Havok
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:06 PM
Yes.

VeNuS#1LoVa
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:06 PM
Yes, if her injuries are behind her yes, I do see it.

KoOlMaNsEaN
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:07 PM
If she stays healthy then yes

- L i n a -
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:11 PM
People, don't forget that Christine has a 1750 point lead this year on Serena after Miami...

That's a lot.

Even if Serena wins the 3 remaining slams, and Christine only reaches the Semis in them... Christine would still be ranked ahead of Serena, with our messed up ranking system. Combine that with the fact that Christine will play more tournaments during the rest of the year.

skyrocket
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:11 PM
If she stays healthy then yes

I agree with you! :worship:

Brαm
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:12 PM
No, I don't think so. As said before, Justine already has about 1750 points :eek: It'll be really hard to overtake Justine's spot, unless she gets injured of course!

per4ever
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:13 PM
like Leenah said..Serena will have to win about every tournament she enters, and hoping Justine won't win too many titles or get to slamfinals..

No I don't see it happening..may be after AO 2005

skyrocket
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:14 PM
No, I don't think so. As said before, Justine already has about 1750 points :eek: It'll be really hard to overtake Justine's spot, unless she gets injured of course!

Thats a good point! I forgot about the point difference. It will be very tough for Serena to gain that many points. But it is possible!

bandabou
Apr 3rd, 2004, 10:31 PM
Nah....the gap is too big. Next year maybe....

fammmmedspin
Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:13 PM
Thats a good point! I forgot about the point difference. It will be very tough for Serena to gain that many points. But it is possible!:) The points are all about Maths. Justine is ahead by all her points gained this year and is likely to play 19-20 tournaments. Serena on her usual schedule might play another 8? She already has maximum points for wimbledon in her ranking so that won't help her ranking much. Even if Serena wins all of her tournaments Justine if she stays fit will win some of hers and probably do well in the others. About the only thing serena has on her side is that she gets Justine's quality points if she ever beats her. Early next year if then is probably Serena's best hope for number 1unless Justine is injured. Put another way, Justine is winning more than she used to and Serena's schedule used to mean that Justine got close in the rankings because she played and won more in a year anyway. It was close before Justine's improvement, now it might be even more difficult. Even if Serena can play better than Justine when they meet - which is uncertain - serena may have to play a lot more if she wants to be number 1 again. Problem is playing more might mean winning less though.

"Topaz"
Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:17 PM
I don't know whether she will or not but she does have a shot. Only the best 17 tournaments will count at the end of the year. So, Rena just needs 16 more. ;)

In fact, Chrissy already has 5: 1 GS win, 1 Tier1 win, 2 Tier2 wins and 1 Tier2 SF. Impressive, isn't it?
Rena will have to match her in those 5 performances, then do better than her (over all) in the other 12. Not an easy feat, but possible.
There are 3 GS's left, 7 Tier1's, 10 Tier2's and WTC, that's 21 good tourneys to choose 16 out of. If Chrissy starts faltering and Rena keeps on rumbling, the latter might not even need all 16 tourneys. Two GS wins alone can go a long way.

Realistically, I don't see Rena playing more than 14 additional tourneys. She will have to make them all count

vs1
Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:20 PM
It depends. Serena doesn't play a full schedule and she has a vulnerable and delicate body. If she were to play a full schedule, then I would say YES very firmly, but seeing that she won't...it'll be hard for her to catch up to Christine by the end of this year. :tape:

fammmmedspin
Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:35 PM
I don't know whether she will or not but she does have a shot. Only the best 17 tournaments will count at the end of the year. So, Rena just needs 16 more. ;)

In fact, Chrissy already has 5: 1 GS win, 1 Tier1 win, 2 Tier2 wins and 1 Tier2 SF. Impressive, isn't it?
Rena will have to match her in those 5 performances, then do better than her (over all) in the other 12. Not an easy feat, but possible.
There are 3 GS's left, 7 Tier1's, 10 Tier2's and WTC, that's 21 good tourneys to choose 16 out of. If Chrissy starts faltering and Rena keeps on rumbling, the latter might not even need all 16 tourneys. Two GS wins alone can go a long way.

Realistically, I don't see Rena playing more than 14 additional tourneys. She will have to make them all count
Serena already has a Wimbledon win in her ranking and a FO SF so she can only pick up so many points there even if she does do better . Justine is probably only going to play another 14 tournaments this year but the likelyhood of Serena playing 16 tournaments (or even 14) is so remote that you can discount it. Serena's best bet is to target Justine's tournaments to get her quality points and stop Justine winning but that would not only mean playing more but playing much more outside the USA, playing Venus's tournaments and having to beat her again, and playing more before GS - none of which serena has done before. It might not work anyway as Justine might win, Justine might learn to avoid Serena or Kim might come through and beat both of them to number 1 as they neutralise eachother by sharing wins.

alextreiber04
Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:39 PM
If Serena stays healthy and beefs up her calendar a bit more then yes.

Dava
Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:41 PM
Lets hope so!!!!

bandabou
Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:46 PM
As long as she wins some majors.....no need for the no.1 rank just yet...has lost waaayyy to much time.

¤CharlDa¤
Apr 3rd, 2004, 11:47 PM
I hope so! If healthy eveerything is possible with Serena!

"Topaz"
Apr 4th, 2004, 12:20 AM
Serena already has a Wimbledon win in her ranking and a FO SF so she can only pick up so many points there even if she does do better ...By the end of this year, all last year's points will have dropped. So, only this year's points will count for all players.

fammmmedspin
Apr 4th, 2004, 01:27 AM
By the end of this year, all last year's points will have dropped. So, only this year's points will count for all players.
Obviously. If you want to count her possible tournaments by the end of the year she does have scope for winning wimbledon and the French. You could even work out roughly how many points she would have if she won them and the USO and the other tournaments she is likely to play.

If you look at it the other way around Serena has a current ranking which she has to improve. To improve it she will have to make more points than last year. My point was that all she can do in Paris is add points for winning to her SF score of last year and all she can add at Wimbledon are a few more quality points. She has to defend her existing points and get past the FO SF before she starts to improve her total. She will only start making new points after Wimbledon and I don't see her playing and winning enough to add 3500-4000 points to her total with only 1 GS and the US hardcourt and European indoor seasons left.

Stijn
Apr 4th, 2004, 03:09 PM
Probably not

Belgium = Best
Apr 4th, 2004, 06:19 PM
No :shrug:

:wavey:

jrm
Apr 4th, 2004, 06:42 PM
probably not

surfinggirl
Apr 4th, 2004, 06:56 PM
It's way to many to get by Justine! Serena hasn't been a yearout, so it was only after Wimbledon. Till Wimbledon she has many points to defend, so does Justine, but i don't think both of them will lose many points as they will be in about every SF or F of every tournament.
So it will be hard. Justine doenst't have a lot of points to defend in the indoor season, but she does at US Open and warm up tournaments. But then again she can gain a lot also at the Olympics so does Serena. I say it will be hard for serena. First see what she can do against Justine or Kim or Davenport in form and if she can beat them then you can begin to say there is hope, but as a Justine fan I hope not!

rjd1111
Apr 4th, 2004, 07:10 PM
People, don't forget that Christine has a 1750 point lead this year on Serena after Miami...

That's a lot.

Even if Serena wins the 3 remaining slams, and Christine only reaches the Semis in them... Christine would still be ranked ahead of Serena, with our messed up ranking system. Combine that with the fact that Christine will play more tournaments during the rest of the year.


But Justine has a lot of points to defend, Serena doesn't

faboozadoo15
Apr 4th, 2004, 07:49 PM
probably not...
but it is possible if justine doesn't de3fend any of her stuff well