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View Full Version : Where will the newly selected Number One be ranked after Wimbledon 04?


DA FOREHAND
Aug 19th, 2003, 09:00 PM
She's had a pretty good year, excellent by her standards, all those semis, and titles not to mention her coveted Season Ending Championship.

Can she defend her points?
Will she win titles and Slams and make it a true great season?

alfajeffster
Aug 19th, 2003, 09:06 PM
I'd say at #3 or possibly #4

bandabou
Aug 19th, 2003, 09:08 PM
Yep # 3 or #4 seems a pretty good guess....´cause there aren´t places where she can earn points anymore....I mean even the best 18th is full now.

Knizzle
Aug 19th, 2003, 09:11 PM
I had a thread about this before, and I think the top 4 will look like this after Wimbledon:

1. Venus(AO and Wimbledon champ)
2. Serena(French Open champ)
3. Henin
4. Clijsters

I think Serena will go into Wimbledon as #1, but Venus will win Wimbledon and take the #1 ranking. I think Henin will be #1 between February till after the French Open.

Rtael
Aug 19th, 2003, 11:08 PM
I think Kim will be #3 with Henin #1 and Serena #2 Venus is a ????

Dava
Aug 19th, 2003, 11:10 PM
I think 2 or 3, I cant see her dropping from the top of the game, but I cant see her staying on top, unless she wins the open and defends her world title.

Instant
Aug 19th, 2003, 11:18 PM
1.Henin-Hardenne
2.Clijsters
3.Serena
4.Maursmo
5.Capriati

AjdeNate!
Aug 19th, 2003, 11:34 PM
1. J2H
2. Kim
3. Serena
4. Monica
5. Amelie

Knizzle
Aug 19th, 2003, 11:38 PM
1. J2H
2. Kim
3. Serena
4. Monica
5. Amelie


Who is this Monica person you speak of?? And did Venus fall off the face of the planet??

Lisbeth
Aug 20th, 2003, 12:26 AM
Kim will stay #1 until Serena and/or Venus start playing more. Justine is the only serious threat at this time, and I think she could well be #1 after the clay season next year. This is not in any way saying Venus and Serena don't have the talent to be #1, but as we've seen Serena on her current schedule must have 3 slams to keep the #1 and that's not really likely in the current climate. Still, if anyone can win 3 slams at the moment it's still Serena so maybe I'm wrong!

Ballbuster
Aug 20th, 2003, 12:35 AM
Kim will catch an injury and fall down to #4 Justine will hover around the coverted #1 spot but Never ascertain it. Serena will struggle to reclaim it and will continue to pulverize the top 4, therefore making mokery of the ranking system.

disposablehero
Aug 20th, 2003, 02:36 AM
Question. How exactly are the Williams going to catch up to Kim by Wimbledon with no summer hardcourt points on their totals and Serena in particular defending 2 Slams where Kim only made the Semis? I'd love if someone can explain this to me.

Knizzle
Aug 20th, 2003, 02:58 AM
Question. How exactly are the Williams going to catch up to Kim by Wimbledon with no summer hardcourt points on their totals and Serena in particular defending 2 Slams where Kim only made the Semis? I'd love if someone can explain this to me.

Kim has never had to defend this many points before. Venus failed to defend six of her titles this year because she didn't compete at the tournaments, 3 because of injury. She only has 1405 points to defend from AO until Wimbledon next year!! That's nothing!! She will probably almost double that total if she is healthy. Kim has a whopping 3262 to defend from AO to Wimbledon. Serena has 2806 to defend, but can make up significant ground if she does better on the clay. Also Serena failed to defend Scottsdale because of her knee, so she will pick that tourney up next year. If they don't catch her by Wimbledon, then most likely they will catch her before US Open 2004. I think Henin will be #1 sometime in Feb. up until after the FO, when Serena will be #1 until Venus takes the Wimbledon title and the #1 rankings.

DH, you do agree that it will be very tough for Kim to defend all of these points don't you??

disposablehero
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:04 AM
Kim has never had to defend this many points before. Venus failed to defend six of her titles this year because she didn't compete at the tournaments, 3 because of injury. She only has 1405 points to defend from AO until Wimbledon next year!! That's nothing!! She will probably almost double that total if she is healthy. Kim has a whopping 3262 to defend from AO to Wimbledon. DH, you do agree that it will be very tough for Kim to defend all of these points don't you??

Defend them all? Sure, that is tough. Of course, doing better than Semis in AO or WI would have a huge positive effect. But you are missing one thing. Indeed, 1405 points to defend is not much. However, you should keep in mind that Kim is currently MORE than two and one half THOUSAND points ahead of Venus. The only way that MIGHT happen is if the ranking system changes to "best 15" or a divisor with a minimum of no more than 16.

disposablehero
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:05 AM
To be clear lets do this mathematically:

VENUS+JENCAP+236=KIM

Knizzle
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:14 AM
Defend them all? Sure, that is tough. Of course, doing better than Semis in AO or WI would have a huge positive effect. But you are missing one thing. Indeed, 1405 points to defend is not much. However, you should keep in mind that Kim is currently MORE than two and one half THOUSAND points ahead of Venus. The only way that MIGHT happen is if the ranking system changes to "best 15" or a divisor with a minimum of no more than 16.

What you have to understand is the gap between them there is like a 2500 point gap between them now. By the end of the year Venus will have closed to about 2000 unless Clijsters has a disastrous YEC. If they start next year with a 2500 point gap, Clijsters losing 1000, and Venus gaining 1000 would bring them even. It's really not that unusual. It happened to Venus earlier this year. It's happening to Serena now.

Ballbuster
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:15 AM
To be clear lets do this mathematically:

VENUS+JENCAP+236=KIM


Who cares how many points Kim has. Until she can unload all that whoopazz Venus and Serena puts on her - She's and inferior player.

Period.

Knizzle
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:16 AM
To be clear lets do this mathematically:

VENUS+JENCAP+236=KIM

This is really not necessary. I thought two mature adults were having a discussion here.

disposablehero
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:28 AM
I thought so too. I'm simply pointing out that it is not so simple as it appears. Keep in mind, it is hard for Kim to lose many points. She's defending about 300 points a pop in a lot of these events, and has 200 for an 18th tournament to dump in if things go foul.

Knizzle
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:32 AM
I thought so too. I'm simply pointing out that it is not so simple as it appears. Keep in mind, it is hard for Kim to lose many points. She's defending about 300 points a pop in a lot of these events, and has 200 for an 18th tournament to dump in if things go foul.

Those reserve tournament points have to be defended also, or she won't have anything to fall back on. The points just don't stay there without Kim putting in any effort to preserve them. She definitely may have to fight for her top 2 ranking come FO, Wimby 2004.

disposablehero
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:39 AM
I'd just feel a little foolish if I was wrong. What, after telling people months in advance exactly when Kim would reach #2, reach 5000 points, reach #1, reach 6000 points. Oh, and did I mention having them tell me I was delusional the whole time? I'd hate to think I lost my touch now.

Knizzle
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:43 AM
I'd just feel a little foolish if I was wrong. What, after telling people months in advance exactly when Kim would reach #2, reach 5000 points, reach #1, reach 6000 points. I'd hate to think I lost my touch.

It all remains to be seen. Kim has to make some serious GS noise or she won't keep the top spot or even top 2 by next year.

disposablehero
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:45 AM
What is "serious" Grand Slam noise? Her results this year are fairly comparable to Venus, and twice came closer to being considerably better.

Knizzle
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:47 AM
What is "serious" Grand Slam noise? Her results this year are fairly comparable to Venus, and twice came closer to being considerably better.

Venus isn't in the top 4 now is she??

"Topaz"
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:56 AM
Question. How exactly are the Williams going to catch up to Kim by Wimbledon with no summer hardcourt points on their totals and Serena in particular defending 2 Slams where Kim only made the Semis? I'd love if someone can explain this to me.I can easily build you several scenarios that would lead to just that, without any extraordinary events. Kim's Summer points are the following:

2003-07-21 Stanford..........264 WON
2003-07-28 San Diego........237 F
2003-08-04 Los Angeles......298 WON
2003-08-11 Toronto............57 3RD

Total without USOpen.........856

Now consider that the difference between a Win and a QF at a Slam is about: 1100-250= 850 pts. This alone tells you those Summer points can quickly evaporate.

Between now and WB-04, we have 3 Slams, Dispo, plus TC-03 which is worth about 750 pts. Why is it so hard for you to grasp that anything can happen by WB and even by RG?

Please spare me the long work of building possible scenarios. If the above is not too clear, take a rest and revisit it tomorrow.

Sam L
Aug 20th, 2003, 03:57 AM
I think Kim will still be #1. Justine at #2 cause this would be after French Open, and she might not defend it. Even if she does, she'll probably still be #2, cause Kim will probably have the Oz Open by then.

disposablehero
Aug 20th, 2003, 04:00 AM
Venus isn't in the top 4 now is she??

No she isn't. However, she does have 12 less tournaments than Kim and 7 less titles. See, here's the thing. The Williams have always gotten good chunks of their points from the August hardcourt season. This year, nothing. So barring a radical increase of schedule during other parts of the season, they won't get those points back until August. If Kim wins the US Open, she will have the #1 ranking virtually uncontested until at least Roland Garros. She has 3 rivals for that ranking right now. The most dangerous is dug into a huge hole because she will have no points for the US Open or the 5 important events before it, and by the time she has a chance to catch up she will be defending winners points from Wimbledon. Next is Justine. A threat to take #1 from Kim? Yes. In fact the only threat for the next 6 months. But if she can't do it by April, then she can't do it. Finally, Venus. Has to win the US Open to even be in the mix. Even that would get her not immediately closer to Kim if Kim is the losing Finalist. Thing is, yes, Venus will eventually have some opportunities to gain some ground on Kim. But Kim has a chance at Us Open to stretch the margin WIDER, and is guaranteed to unless Venus wins the title.

disposablehero
Aug 20th, 2003, 04:02 AM
I can easily build you several scenarios that would lead to just that, without any extraordinary events. Kim's Summer points are the following:

2003-07-21 Stanford..........264 WON
2003-07-28 San Diego........237 F
2003-08-04 Los Angeles......298 WON
2003-08-11 Toronto............57 3RD

Total without USOpen.........856

Now consider that the difference between a Win and a QF at a Slam is about: 1100-250= 850 pts. This alone tells you those Summer points can quickly evaporate.

Between now and WB-04, we have 3 Slams, Dispo, plus TC-03 which is worth about 750 pts. Why is it so hard for you to grasp that anything can happen by WB and even by RG?

Please spare me the long work of building possible scenarios. If the above is not too clear, take a rest and revisit it tomorrow.

Great. now how many of these Slams did the WS lose in the QF of, which will allow them that big 850 point bump next year? And are they both going to win each Slam, or will there only be one winner for each?

disposablehero
Aug 20th, 2003, 04:07 AM
It's pretty simple. Other than Roland Garros:

Venus wins a Slam over Serena, Serena=fucked.
Serena wins a Slam over Venus, both Williams=treading water
Serena wins a Slam over anyone else, Venus=fucked
Venus wins a Slam over anyone else, Serena=double fucked
Someone not named Williams wins a Slam over Serena, both Williams=double fucked
Someone not named Williams wins a Slam over Venus, Serena=triple fucked

shap_half
Aug 20th, 2003, 04:21 AM
I had a thread about this before, and I think the top 4 will look like this after Wimbledon:

1. Venus(AO and Wimbledon champ)
2. Serena(French Open champ)
3. Henin
4. Clijsters

I think Serena will go into Wimbledon as #1, but Venus will win Wimbledon and take the #1 ranking. I think Henin will be #1 between February till after the French Open.

explain to me how Justine can be number 1 until after the French Open but Serena will go into Wimbledon number 1. Serena has not recently played any tournament between Roland Garros and Wimbledon, so if she does the same next year and Justine is still number 1 after Roland Garros (which she SHOULD win again), Justine would still be number one until after Wimbledon.

also explain to me how Serena will ever win Roland Garros AGAIN?

"Topaz"
Aug 20th, 2003, 04:27 AM
Great. now how many of these Slams did the WS lose in the QF of, which will allow them that big 850 point bump next year? And are they both going to win each Slam, or will there only be one winner for each?You have it all twisted with points to defend. First, you've got to consider the sisters seperately. Secondly, it's almost a full year between now and WB-04; those 850 pts in Kim's advantage can easily be absorbed. Didn't she lose to Lina lately? That shows she can lose early just as anyone else, thereby receding point-wise with respect to her competitors.

Knizzle
Aug 20th, 2003, 05:00 AM
No she isn't. However, she does have 12 less tournaments than Kim and 7 less titles. See, here's the thing. The Williams have always gotten good chunks of their points from the August hardcourt season. This year, nothing. So barring a radical increase of schedule during other parts of the season, they won't get those points back until August. If Kim wins the US Open, she will have the #1 ranking virtually uncontested until at least Roland Garros. She has 3 rivals for that ranking right now. The most dangerous is dug into a huge hole because she will have no points for the US Open or the 5 important events before it, and by the time she has a chance to catch up she will be defending winners points from Wimbledon. Next is Justine. A threat to take #1 from Kim? Yes. In fact the only threat for the next 6 months. But if she can't do it by April, then she can't do it. Finally, Venus. Has to win the US Open to even be in the mix. Even that would get her not immediately closer to Kim if Kim is the losing Finalist. Thing is, yes, Venus will eventually have some opportunities to gain some ground on Kim. But Kim has a chance at Us Open to stretch the margin WIDER, and is guaranteed to unless Venus wins the title.

I agree with most of this, but Serena will probably be close enough to Clijsters to take over the #1 if Serena wins the French. I don't expect there to be big gaps between the 1-4 by the French Open. I expect the #1-4 rankings to change hands alot in 2004, but I don't expect either WS to get it until after the French Open.

disposablehero
Aug 20th, 2003, 05:04 AM
I've debated this topic enough for now, and made my explanation of the facts as I see them. This issue will be a lot clearer to all concerned in the next 3 weeks.

bello
Aug 20th, 2003, 07:11 AM
3
Behind either Serena and Venus
or Serena and Justine

great smash
Aug 20th, 2003, 08:32 AM
You kind of automatically put Venus and Serena ahead of the Belgians again, and if Venus plays a full (to her standards) schedule that might well happen.

People don't seem to notice that on average, and when winning those, Serena picks up between 15-20% of her points at the GS.

Failing to play one (the US Open in this case) has her losing about 17% of her points, and see her fall over 1000 behind Clijsters.

By the time she comes back she'll be probably about 1500 points behind Clijsters.

Of course we cannot make any predictions on Clijsters, if she suddenly gets injured things might change quickly, but if she manages to do not much worse next year than she did this year, it'll be hard for Serena to catch up. If she doesn't play 1 slam, she has to make up for it at other events. Considering she hardly ever loses, she can't really do much better at many tournaments, so if she wants to get the no. of points she's having today (which might be needed to overtake Kim) she'll have to add several events she usually doesn't play, and I personally don't see that happening.

The way Serena earns her points, she needs to compete at all the majors, and doing well at them.

MartinaI
Aug 20th, 2003, 09:51 AM
1. Justine
2. Serena
3. Kim
4. Zvonereva

Jen'sFan
Aug 20th, 2003, 10:29 AM
1.justine
2.serena
3.venus
4.mauresmo

DA FOREHAND
Aug 20th, 2003, 08:07 PM
bump