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jenglisbe
May 11th, 2003, 09:53 PM
Ok, the French Open traditionally sticks to the rankings when doing their seedings. The tournament in Rome this week is the last chance for players to improve their ranking to get a seed, a top 8 seed, or a top 4 seed. Here are some of the issues:

#2 ranking - What does Kim need to do to stay ahead of Venus??

#4 rankings - With Justine withdrawing, she loses her points from being in the final last year. Does Amelie have any mathematical way to move to #4??

#8 ranking - Chanda, Jelena, Daniela, and Anastasia look to duke it out for the #8 ranking (and likely #8 seed at the French Open). Who needs to do what to make sure they are a top 8 seed?

#16 ranking - What players are duking it out to get the last seed for the 4th round?

Fingon
May 11th, 2003, 10:07 PM
Ok, the French Open traditionally sticks to the rankings when doing their seedings. The tournament in Rome this week is the last chance for players to improve their ranking to get a seed, a top 8 seed, or a top 4 seed. Here are some of the issues:

#2 ranking - What does Kim need to do to stay ahead of Venus??

She needs to make the semis at least because her 18th tournament is quite high.

#4 rankings - With Justine withdrawing, she loses her points from being in the final last year. Does Amelie have any mathematical way to move to #4??

no

I am too lazy to look at the other questions now :p

jenglisbe
May 11th, 2003, 10:33 PM
Fingon - you said:
She needs to make the semis at least because her 18th tournament is quite high.
Wouldn't that help her? If her 18th tournament is high, it means she doesn't stand to lose many points if she were to lose early in Rome. I think her 18th result will now be 88 points for last year's French Open. Her Rome result from last year was worth 200 points. That would mean at worst Kim will lose 112 points this week.

How far ahead of Venus will she be in the new rankings?

Hazy
May 11th, 2003, 10:40 PM
How far ahead of Venus will she be in the new rankings?

11

Fingon
May 12th, 2003, 12:23 AM
Fingon - you said:

Wouldn't that help her? If her 18th tournament is high, it means she doesn't stand to lose many points if she were to lose early in Rome. I think her 18th result will now be 88 points for last year's French Open. Her Rome result from last year was worth 200 points. That would mean at worst Kim will lose 112 points this week.

How far ahead of Venus will she be in the new rankings?

After Berlin, Kim has a total of 4,536 points, Venus has 4,508

Kim defends 200 points in Rome, but her 18th tournament is 88 points. So, if she loses her first match in Rome her point total would be

4,536 - 200 + 88 = 4,424 that is 84 points behind Venus.

Anything she earns below 88 points will simply not be counted (because her 17th tournament will be 88 points). So, she won't start earning points until she has earned more than 88 points, and on top of that she needs another 85 points: 88 + 85 = 173.

There is no way she can make 173 points reaching the quarters (75 round points), she needs at least semis.

hope it's clear :)

Brian Stewart
May 12th, 2003, 12:29 AM
I don't have the new rankings estimates for Monday, or the 17th tournament scores handy, but here's an approximation:

#4- Since Lindsay isn't playing, between Justine and Amelie. Justine has a lead of over 800 points before Rome taken off. Loses 301 points, with an 18th tourney of 2. Momo has to win Rome, beating Serena and Kim. Might be possible without facing Kim (don't have draw handy). I think she's seeded to play Jen in the quarters. Might be possible by beating Jen in quarters, Serena in semis, then Chanda in finals, pending QP of other matches, but best bet is beating top 2.

#8- Main battle is between Chanda and Daniela (about 24 pts apart), with Jelena and Anastasia having outside shot. Daniela has to go at least a round further than Chanda, with a minimum of a quarterfinal. The other 2 have to reach the final and hope both Chanda and Daniela lose early. Both Chanda and Daniela are battling their 17th tournament, with Chanda's being about 35 points, and Daniela's being about 65.

Don't have time to look at any others at the moment, and these are just top-of-the-head guesstimates. Be back later.

ys
May 12th, 2003, 12:31 AM
After Berlin, Kim has a total of 4,536 points, Venus has 4,508

Kim defends 200 points in Rome, but her 18th tournament is 88 points. So, if she loses her first match in Rome her point total would be

4,536 - 200 + 88 = 4,424 that is 84 points behind Venus.

Anything she earns below 88 points will simply not be counted (because her 17th tournament will be 88 points). So, she won't start earning points until she has earned more than 88 points, and on top of that she needs another 85 points: 88 + 85 = 173.

There is no way she can make 173 points reaching the quarters (75 round points), she needs at least semis.

hope it's clear :)

Who is right? You who say Kim has 4,536 or Judio who says she has 4519? It is important, because if he is right, not only Kim needs to make semis, she also needs to beat a Top 16 player in quarters ( meaning, Danilidou or Myskina), or, if neither makes it to quarters she would need to reach finals..

starr
May 12th, 2003, 12:36 AM
The stats I posted say Kim has 4519. The person who did it subtracted 88 points for the extra tournament.

I think it looks as if Kim will go into RG number 3.

There is a possibility that Capriati could overtake Mauresmo, isn't there? But, probably won't happen.

Those are the only two that I see having possibilites of shifting.

Fingon
May 12th, 2003, 12:42 AM
Who is right? You who say Kim has 4,536 or Judio who says she has 4519? It is important, because if he is right, not only Kim needs to make semis, she also needs to beat a Top 16 player in quarters ( meaning, Danilidou or Myskina), or, if neither makes it to quarters she would need to reach finals..

Actually Judio is right

I just realized I put "Ib" and not "Ic" on my spreadsheet, so I have the round points of a touranment over \$1,325,000 that is not the case.

CJ07
May 12th, 2003, 12:45 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong but if Monica gets to the SF beating Jen and Amelie and if hantuchova loses to zuluaga (which she prolly will) then Hantuchova can kiss the top 10 goodbye

joao
May 12th, 2003, 12:48 AM
Well with the modified draw, Kim has an easy walk to the finals (I don't see anyone in her side of the draw stopping her, certainly not Myakina or Rubin) ... and the #2 seed pretty much guaranteed!

Fingon
May 12th, 2003, 12:52 AM
I don't have the new rankings estimates for Monday, or the 17th tournament scores handy, but here's an approximation:

#4- Since Lindsay isn't playing, between Justine and Amelie. Justine has a lead of over 800 points before Rome taken off. Loses 301 points, with an 18th tourney of 2. Momo has to win Rome, beating Serena and Kim. Might be possible without facing Kim (don't have draw handy). I think she's seeded to play Jen in the quarters. Might be possible by beating Jen in quarters, Serena in semis, then Chanda in finals, pending QP of other matches, but best bet is beating top 2.

Brian, after Berlin Justine has 3,917 points, Amelie has 3,090, that is 827 points.

with Rome points off:

Justine: 3,917 - 301 + 2 = 3,618

Amelie: 3,090 - 99 = 2,991

so Amelie will need to make 628 points to surpass Justine, there is no way she can do that in a tier 1. She can get 275 points for winning the tournament, so she needs 353 quality points
I haven't checked the draws to see who she could face but if she beats
Serena + Kim + Capriati + Chanda + Hantuchova

100 + 75 + 43 + 43 +43 = 304

not only it would be virtually impossible to beat all those players in a row, she wouldn't even face those players and even if she did it wouldn't be enough.

ys
May 12th, 2003, 12:57 AM
Well with the modified draw, Kim has an easy walk to the finals (I don't see anyone in her side of the draw stopping her, certainly not Myakina or Rubin) ... and the #2 seed pretty much guaranteed!

That's not obvious. When was the last time Kim played 10 matches ( and that's singles only ) within 12 days? And they say, she is injured..

starr
May 12th, 2003, 01:18 AM
I'm not optimistic about Kim keeping #2.

joao
May 12th, 2003, 01:28 AM
Well I hope you guys are right, but I'm not optimistic about Venus regaining #2 ... if Henin wins RG, Venus will probably fall to #4!

jenglisbe
May 12th, 2003, 01:58 AM
Fingon (and others) - thanks so much for the info!! It will be exciting to see who responds best to the challenge :)

King Lindsay
May 12th, 2003, 02:47 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong but if Monica gets to the SF beating Jen and Amelie and if hantuchova loses to zuluaga (which she prolly will) then Hantuchova can kiss the top 10 goodbye

You're wrong.

King Lindsay
May 12th, 2003, 02:52 AM
Monica is 645 pts behind Daniela right now. Daniela defends 130 pts in Rome. Even if she loses her first match, she'll still be 578 pts up on Monica, because she has an 18th tournament worth 63 pts. And you know what else? It would be worth noting that Daniela is NUMBER NINE IN THE WORLD, NOT NUMBER TEN. She'd have to be passed by two players to fall from the top ten. And for Monica to do it, she'd need 579 points from Rome, which sure as hell is not going to happen with a semifinal. Oh, and also, Monica will not be in the semifinals, so I would not worry about it.

King Lindsay
May 12th, 2003, 02:54 AM
I'm not optimistic about Kim keeping #2.

Why the hell not? All she'd have to do is make the semifinals, something she has done in every single tournament she has played since god only knows when. The US Open, I think. I think there is reason for optimism.

katoles2003
May 12th, 2003, 02:57 AM
I am hoping for a Williams-Williams semi. With Venus coming out on top and finally realizing that she can compete with her little sis...

ys
May 12th, 2003, 03:18 AM
I am hoping for a Williams-Williams semi. With Venus coming out on top and finally realizing that she can compete with her little sis...

Want my predicition?
If Kim is seeded #2 and the sisters are drawn into the same half, one of them will withdraw.

King Lindsay
May 12th, 2003, 03:32 AM
Want my predicition?
If Kim is seeded #2 and the sisters are drawn into the same half, one of them will withdraw.

Someone, ie Venus.

could happen.

Leena
May 12th, 2003, 03:35 AM
Elena Bovina as the #18-#20 seed will be champion.

It's about time that Women's Tennis got a shock in the ass... Lena's gonna do it. :)

ys
May 12th, 2003, 03:38 AM
Elena Bovina as the #18-#20 seed will be champion.

It's about time that Women's Tennis got a shock in the ass... Lena's gonna do it. :)

If only while playing mixed doubles with Jeff Tarango..

Brian Stewart
May 12th, 2003, 07:21 AM
Forgot about Momo's points. So, Justine is safe at #4. The only one that could have caught her is Lindsay.

The battle for #8 isn't as level as I thought. Because Chanda lost her opening match in Berlin this week, and has played just over the minimum # of tournaments, her 17th tournament total is now 1 point. Any match she wins is gravy. If Chanda wins her opening match, Daniela has to reach the semis. And looking at what the others are defending, they would probably have to win the tourney, hope Chanda loses before the quarters, and hope Daniela loses before the semis.

moby
May 12th, 2003, 11:12 AM
kim's situation reminds me of the time martina's 18th tourney was like 200...

ahhh... the good old times :D

Freewoman33
May 12th, 2003, 12:18 PM
Want my predicition?
If Kim is seeded #2 and the sisters are drawn into the same half, one of them will withdraw.

Keep dreaming

venusfan
May 12th, 2003, 01:58 PM
People always worring about the Draw.. All I'm hoping for wherever Venus is seeded, she is on the other side of the draw from her sister.. could be #2, could be #127, just hoping she is on the other side of the Draw.. and I think neither Henin nor Clijster will as so make it to the semi in Paris.

Diya
May 12th, 2003, 03:27 PM
Maybe i am a lil too fast but what are the chances that Justine could be # 3 after RG (behind Kim )

jenglisbe
May 12th, 2003, 06:46 PM
Justine will have a tough time getting to #3 after Roland Garros. She will be about 900 points behind Venus heading into Roland Garros...
If Justine wins, then she would pass Venus.
If Justine makes the final, she would likely need Venus to lose in the 4th round.
If Justine makes the semis, she will gain about 450 points. That would mean Venus has to lose 450 points for it to be close...meaning Venus would probably have to lose in the 4th round. That isn't likely unless Venus isn't recovered from her injury.

SerenaSlam
May 12th, 2003, 09:51 PM
like i said before about the draws, it soothes hearts to know, that since wimbledon 2002, number 1 and 3 seeds have been the opposite sides of the draw, that is three staight grandslams doing this, so hopefully they will do it yet again