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Volcana
Apr 20th, 2003, 03:21 PM
You can read too much into two weeks. But it seems to me that the last two weeks sum up why Justine is ranked #4, rather than higher, or for that matter, lower. And a good idea of where her raking is headed.

1) She 'can't' beat the players ranked above her.

Liftetime H2H vs those players?

2-7 vs Clijsters
1-7 vs Venus
2-4 vs Serena

A combined 5-18. And ALL of these matches took place in the last 2 years and 1 month. This isn't ancient history. Still, she beats Kim and Serena once every 3 or 4 matches. She can't seem to solve Venus at all. Of course Justine beat Venus the first time they played. But seven straight losses since then spells 'can't beat at all'. In the last 12 months, Justine has 18 losses. 10 of those losses were inflicted by Serena, Venus or Kim.

2) She's a 'clay court specialist'

Again we need those single quotes. Look her her five victories over the current top three. Four victories on clay, one on grass.

3) She still drops matches to non-elite competition. Kapros, Daniilidou, Irvin, Casanova, Dementieva.

ONE loss like that in a year is expected, even two.
FIVE is a lack of consistency, or a failure of focus.


2003 Hamburg QF L DOKIC 6-7 6-7
2003 Rome FR L S.WILLIAMS 6-7 4-6
2003 Roland Garros 128 L KAPROS 6-4 1-6 0-6
2003 's-Hertogenbosch SF L DANIILIDOU 6-4 6-7 3-6
2003 Wimbledon SF L V.WILLIAMS 3-6 2-6
2003 Stanford 32 L IRVIN 3-6 6-4 1-6
2003 Canadian Open QF L CAPRIATI 6-4 0-6 2-6
2003 New Haven 16 L MYSKINA 5-7 2-6
2003 U.S. Open 16 L HANTUCHOVA 1-6 6-3 6-7
2003 Leipzig SF L S.WILLIAMS 4-6 2-6
2003 Stuttgart 16 L CASANOVA 5-7 6-4 4-6
2003 Zurich SF L DAVENPORT 6-7 6-7
2003 Tour Championships QF L CLIJSTERS 2-6 1-6
2003 Sydney SF L CLIJSTERS 2-6 3-6
2003 Australian Open SF L V.WILLIAMS 3-6 3-6
2003 Antwerp SF L CLIJSTERS 2-6 6-7
2003 Miami QF L RUBIN 3-6 2-6
2003 Amelia Island SF L Dementieva 6-1 6-0


Sure she loses to the 'Lesser Elite' (Myskina, Hantuchova, Dokic, Rubin, Seles) occasionally[/color], but so does everybody else.
The top twelve all have it in them to beat just about anyone.
But the keys to the Kingdom for Justine are cutting out losses to non-elite players, and improving that record against those ranked ahead of her.

4) Lindsay Davenport is still carrying results from when she first returned to the tour. Run the numbers. Lindsay's going to be #4 before Roland Garros, absent injury. Justine was defending over 1000 points before RG. Lindsay was defending zilch. Statistically, Justine had to earn 300 more points than Lindsay to stay ranked ahead of her for RG. Right now, Lindsay is earning just as many points as Justine on Justine's best surface, and Lindsay's worst.

Infiniti2001
Apr 20th, 2003, 03:40 PM
If my thinking is correct, Lindsay has about 2 more months of gaining free points ... Let's go Lindsay :bounce: :bounce: :p

Astro Jetson
Apr 20th, 2003, 03:49 PM
Very insightful analysis. Thanks. Indeed Lindsay seems to be getting really close.

TheBoiledEgg
Apr 20th, 2003, 04:09 PM
Lindsay #4 before RG ???
unlikely as she's not going to play until week before

Justine even though she's got tons of pts to defend will still stay ahead of Lindsay.

Justine is still 700 pts ahead. and even after today it still will be around 625

Justine will come out further ahead of Lindsay after RG than she will go into it

CJ07
Apr 20th, 2003, 04:17 PM
Justine will be #4 as Lindsay isnt playing again till Madrid

unless she totally bombs out or something

CJ07
Apr 20th, 2003, 04:17 PM
also this is davenports 18 tournament, so shes not just adding free points anymore

fleemke³
Apr 20th, 2003, 04:25 PM
Justine will stay number 4 because Lindsay won't have freat RED clay results. On the European clay you need more 'work-tennis' and that's not Lindsay's cup of tea.
Ok if Justine plays awfull and loses in every 1st round ... yeah than will Lindsay pass her.

One notice to the 7-2 against Kim ... wel it's 1-1 on clay and 1-0 for Justine on grass. If both girls will play more against eachother on the surfaces the H2H would be more equal I think.

Lynnsha
Apr 20th, 2003, 05:30 PM
Justine will stay number 4 because Lindsay won't have freat RED clay results. On the European clay you need more 'work-tennis' and that's not Lindsay's cup of tea.
Ok if Justine plays awfull and loses in every 1st round ... yeah than will Lindsay pass her.

One notice to the 7-2 against Kim ... wel it's 1-1 on clay and 1-0 for Justine on grass. If both girls will play more against eachother on the surfaces the H2H would be more equal I think.


You suppose that Justine would beat Kim if they played more often on clay or grass. :rolleyes: :o :confused:

H2H on clay 1-1
H2H on grass 1-0 for Justine

Justine's favorite surface is clay but Kim has improved a lot. She made a Slam final on clay and won a title on clay.
Tell me why do you think that Justine would beat her. :confused:

And that's not because she leads 1-0 on grass that she's gonna win the next matches. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Rtael
Apr 20th, 2003, 05:32 PM
Let's see on clay...Justine has won 2 tier I's, beat Serena and ender her winning streak, made another tier I final..... made a Tier II SF,and Final, and made SF at RG, tell me...what didn't you understand about that comment again?

Chris_Martin's_woman
Apr 20th, 2003, 05:42 PM
Justine get's on my nerves.......her hubby is a hottie though!:hearts:

Lynnsha
Apr 20th, 2003, 05:48 PM
Justine is very good on clay but she lost against Dementieva. :eek:

She was one of the favorites last year and you know what has happened.

Hurley
Apr 20th, 2003, 06:07 PM
Lindsay Davenport is still carrying results from when she first returned to the tour. Run the numbers. Lindsay's going to be #4 before Roland Garros, absent injury.

I've run the numbers. You're incorrect.

Justine was defending over 1000 points before RG.

And she's defended 547 as of now.

Lindsay was defending zilch. Statistically, Justine had to earn 300 more points than Lindsay to stay ranked ahead of her for RG.

And, since Lindsay won't play any more clay events until Madrid, which doesn't affect Roland Garros seedings, Justine has a perfectly fine chance to stay ahead.

Right now, Lindsay is earning just as many points as Justine on Justine's best surface, and Lindsay's worst.

Also a fallacy. Lindsay, should she win today, will have 474 points in the same two-week span where Justine won 547. And since she refuses to play anymore, that's all she wrote.

Justine still has to work for the #4 seed, but it's no given.

Kart
Apr 20th, 2003, 06:32 PM
I'd never have said this until last week, but I think that Justine has a reasonable shot for no.3. Although Kim seems to be beat her all the time, it's all mental. She doesn't play well against her.

However, in view of her win over Serena - which is big because it's not like Serena wasn't expecting her to play well and she always picks up her game against the top players - I think she may be getting over her mental barriers.

It's now up to Kim to prove she's the better player.

Volcana
Apr 20th, 2003, 06:36 PM
I didn't realize Lindsay was skipping all the red clay tournaments. Although, given that comment about 'being married they next time you see me', I should have put two and two together.

xin
Apr 20th, 2003, 06:41 PM
Let's see on clay...Justine has won 2 tier I's, beat Serena and ender her winning streak, made another tier I final..... made a Tier II SF,and Final, and made SF at RG, tell me...what didn't you understand about that comment again?


Let's just wait and see. They haven't played a lot on these surfaces.

Mercury Rising
Apr 20th, 2003, 06:50 PM
2003 Hamburg QF L DOKIC 6-7 6-7
2003 Rome FR L S.WILLIAMS 6-7 4-6
2003 Roland Garros 128 L KAPROS 6-4 1-6 0-6
2003 's-Hertogenbosch SF L DANIILIDOU 6-4 6-7 3-6
2003 Wimbledon SF L V.WILLIAMS 3-6 2-6
2003 Stanford 32 L IRVIN 3-6 6-4 1-6
2003 Canadian Open QF L CAPRIATI 6-4 0-6 2-6
2003 New Haven 16 L MYSKINA 5-7 2-6
2003 U.S. Open 16 L HANTUCHOVA 1-6 6-3 6-7
2003 Leipzig SF L S.WILLIAMS 4-6 2-6
2003 Stuttgart 16 L CASANOVA 5-7 6-4 4-6
2003 Zurich SF L DAVENPORT 6-7 6-7
2003 Tour Championships QF L CLIJSTERS 2-6 1-6
2003 Sydney SF L CLIJSTERS 2-6 3-6
2003 Australian Open SF L V.WILLIAMS 3-6 3-6
2003 Antwerp SF L CLIJSTERS 2-6 6-7
2003 Miami QF L RUBIN 3-6 2-6
2003 Amelia Island SF L Dementieva 6-1 6-0


This all happened in 2003 :confused:
Justine lost 6-1 6-0 against Dementieva :confused:

arn
Apr 20th, 2003, 06:54 PM
Only the last 5 are from 2003. And she didn't lose 6-1 6-0 against Dementieva!

fammmmedspin
Apr 20th, 2003, 06:56 PM
On recent H2H s wouldn't many of the arguments about Justine apply to Lindsay and explain why she is number 5? I suspect Lindsay is more consistent with the lower ranked players but worse at beating the top players.

Lynnsha
Apr 20th, 2003, 06:57 PM
I'd never have said this until last week, but I think that Justine has a reasonable shot for no.3. Although Kim seems to be beat her all the time, it's all mental. She doesn't play well against her.

It's too easy to say it's only a mental problem against Kim.


Let's just wait and see. They haven't played a lot on these surfaces.

You're right.

Mercury Rising
Apr 20th, 2003, 06:59 PM
Did there suddenly disappear a post here :devil:

Hurley
Apr 20th, 2003, 07:27 PM
And now...Justine is still 663 points ahead of Lindsay. She will need to bomb out of Rome and Berlin to lose that #4 seed.

fleemke³
Apr 20th, 2003, 07:34 PM
You suppose that Justine would beat Kim if they played more often on clay or grass. :rolleyes: :o :confused:

H2H on clay 1-1
H2H on grass 1-0 for Justine

Justine's favorite surface is clay but Kim has improved a lot. She made a Slam final on clay and won a title on clay.
Tell me why do you think that Justine would beat her. :confused:

And that's not because she leads 1-0 on grass that she's gonna win the next matches. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Kim has improved a lot but Justine also did and Justine's game is more suitable on grass because she goes to the net and is more than a baseline player.

Why Justine would beat her ... wel because she is better on those surface and mentally get very strong this year. No I'm not sure she's going to win on grass against Kim but her results on grass are much better as Kim her results so.

Wait and see and be prepared to see Justine as the first Grand Slam-winner of Belgium :p:p:p Remeber june 7th 2003 :p:p

cynicole
Apr 20th, 2003, 07:37 PM
2003 Hamburg QF L DOKIC 6-7 6-7
2003 Rome FR L S.WILLIAMS 6-7 4-6
2003 Roland Garros 128 L KAPROS 6-4 1-6 0-6
2003 's-Hertogenbosch SF L DANIILIDOU 6-4 6-7 3-6
2003 Wimbledon SF L V.WILLIAMS 3-6 2-6
2003 Stanford 32 L IRVIN 3-6 6-4 1-6
2003 Canadian Open QF L CAPRIATI 6-4 0-6 2-6
2003 New Haven 16 L MYSKINA 5-7 2-6
2003 U.S. Open 16 L HANTUCHOVA 1-6 6-3 6-7
2003 Leipzig SF L S.WILLIAMS 4-6 2-6
2003 Stuttgart 16 L CASANOVA 5-7 6-4 4-6
2003 Zurich SF L DAVENPORT 6-7 6-7
2003 Tour Championships QF L CLIJSTERS 2-6 1-6
2003 Sydney SF L CLIJSTERS 2-6 3-6
2003 Australian Open SF L V.WILLIAMS 3-6 3-6
2003 Antwerp SF L CLIJSTERS 2-6 6-7
2003 Miami QF L RUBIN 3-6 2-6
2003 Amelia Island SF L Dementieva 6-1 6-0


This all happened in 2003 :confused:
Justine lost 6-1 6-0 against Dementieva :confused:

Yeah, in some bizarre universe where 6-1 6-0 = 3-6 6-4 7-5.

Lynnsha
Apr 20th, 2003, 07:44 PM
Wait and see and be prepared to see Justine as the first Grand Slam-winner of Belgium :p:p:p Remeber june 7th 2003 :p:p

Wait and see and be prepared to see Kim as the first Grand Slam-winner of Belgium :p:p:p Remember june 7th 2003 :p:p :D

Lynnsha
Apr 20th, 2003, 08:09 PM
I remember the 7th june 2001.

Volcana
Apr 20th, 2003, 08:13 PM
Sorry about all those 2003's. Only the lst five are 2003. For some reaso, I can't seem to edit that post.

Nemesis
Apr 20th, 2003, 08:13 PM
Volcana: why do you always make these kind of threads for Justine? She has had a mediocre year, last year. But she has worked hard and has acquired a career-best number 4 ranking. This calendar year, she has a VERY good year: best peformance on a hardcourt GS, first one to beat Serena, nice tourney win in Dubai ... She has had 5 'weird' losses a year from today: against Kapros she was ill, against Irvin she broke her finger. Daniliidou & Dementieva are good players. And Casanova was a surprise. So actually there are 3 weird losses of which 2 are against the eventual tournament winners. Not bad, I would say. Please, stop making these threads when JuJu loses. Tennis is supposed to be surprising. Upsets is what makes it interesting. Or else you get 10 Serena's in the top.

Lynnsha: be realistic. Justine is better on clay and grass. She won the last 2 meetings against Kim on those surfaces. We, Justine fans, admit that Kim is better on hardcourt and carpet. You're one of the few egoistic and stubborn Kim fans that lives in the dream world that Kim is the best in the world on all surfaces. Luckily not all Kim fans are like you.

And who will win RG??? Let's not commit hybris here. The best will win. Kim or Justine? It may be Serena after all ... Or a total surprise!!!

fleemke³
Apr 20th, 2003, 08:17 PM
Volcana: why do you always make these kind of threads for Justine? She has had a mediocre year, last year. But she has worked hard and has acquired a career-best number 4 ranking. This calendar year, she has a VERY good year: best peformance on a hardcourt GS, first one to beat Serena, nice tourney win in Dubai ... She has had 5 'weird' losses a ear from today: against Kapros she was ill, against Irvin she broke her finger. Daniliidou & Dementieva are good players. And Casanova was a surprise. So actually there are 3 weird losses of which 2 are against the eventual tournament winners. Not bad, I would say. Please, stop making these threads when JuJu loses. Tennis is supposed to be surprising. Upsets is what makes it interesting. Else you get 10 Serena's in the top.

Lynnsha: be realistic. Justine is better on clay and grass. She won the last 2 meetings againt Kim on those surfaces. We, Justine fans, admit taht Ki mis betetr on hardcourt and carpet. You're one of the few egoistic and stubborn Kim fans that lives in the dream world that Kim is the best in the world on all surfaces. Luckily not all Kim fans are like you.

And who will win RG??? Let's not commit hybris here. The best will win. Kim or Justine? It may be Serena after all ... Or a total surprise!!!

:worship: :worship: :worship: :worship:

one thing Lynnsha why did Justine lost? Not because Kim was the better player but because she was choking ... now this year she's mentally a lot stronger so don't count on those presents anymore :p:p

raquel
Apr 20th, 2003, 08:18 PM
I agree that Justine does occasionally lose to 'non-elite' players, but I think we can forgive her the Kapros loss. She was dead on her feet that day and could hardly move or hit the ball.

Lynnsha
Apr 20th, 2003, 08:38 PM
Lynnsha: be realistic. Justine is better on clay and grass. She won the last 2 meetings against Kim on those surfaces. We, Justine fans, admit that Kim is betetr on hardcourt and carpet. You're one of the few egoistic and stubborn Kim fans that lives in the dream world that Kim is the best in the world on all surfaces. Luckily not all Kim fans are like you.

And who will win RG??? Let's not commit hybris here. The best will win. Kim or Justine? It may be Serena after all ... Or a total surprise!!!

I'm realistic but I think you're not.
Justine already beat Kim and I know she can do it again.

Everybody can beat everybody. I wouldn't be surprise if Justine won Roland Garros. I wouldn't be surprise if Serena won. I wouldn't be surprise if Venus won. I wouldn't be surprise if Kim won.................

Did you you read what I wrote?
Tell me where I say that Kim was the best in all surface.

Why do you try to change what I said?

Luckily not all Justine fans are like you.

Nemesis
Apr 20th, 2003, 08:46 PM
Proof:

You suppose that Justine would beat Kim if they played more often on clay or grass.

H2H on clay 1-1
H2H on grass 1-0 for Justine

Justine's favorite surface is clay but Kim has improved a lot. She made a Slam final on clay and won a title on clay.
Tell me why do you think that Justine would beat her.

And that's not because she leads 1-0 on grass that she's gonna win the next matches.

Resumé: Kim is better than Justine on clay and as good as Justine on grass. So Kim is better on all surfaces according to you. Justine isn't stronger than her on any surface :rolleyes:

Why can't you just agree that Kim and Justine are both great? Kim especially on hardcourt and carpet. And Justine on gravel on grass. Their results reflect that and you deny it.

Lynnsha
Apr 20th, 2003, 08:57 PM
Proof:



Resumé: Kim is better than Justine on clay and as good as Justine on grass. So Kim is better on all surfaces according to you. Justine isn't stronger than her on any surface :rolleyes:

Why can't you just agree that Kim and Justine are both great? Kim especially on hardcourt and capet. And Justine on gravel on grass. Their results reflect that and you deny it.


When I say kim has improved a lot on clay, YOU UNDERSTAND that Kim is better than Justine on clay.

And when I say it's not because Justine won the only match on grass that she's gonna win the others YOU UNDERSTAND that she is as good as Justine.

Now explain where I say that Justine isn't a good player.

It's not my fault if you understand what you want to understand. :rolleyes:

Rtael
Apr 20th, 2003, 09:03 PM
Lynn, just because you don't say something doesn't mean you don't imply it....

Lynnsha
Apr 20th, 2003, 09:03 PM
Ne vois pas le diable partout

Lynnsha
Apr 20th, 2003, 09:11 PM
Rtael. Can you read in my thoughts? :D
No. If you can you'd see that I have nothing against Justine.

Fingon
Apr 20th, 2003, 09:17 PM
You can read too much into two weeks. But it seems to me that the last two weeks sum up why Justine is ranked #4, rather than higher, or for that matter, lower. And a good idea of where her raking is headed.

1) She 'can't' beat the players ranked above her.

Liftetime H2H vs those players?

2-7 vs Clijsters
1-7 vs Venus
2-4 vs Serena



I am sorry, English isn't my first language but to say she can't, means impossibility, and she just beat Serena a week ago :rolleyes:


A combined 5-18. And ALL of these matches took place in the last 2 years and 1 month. This isn't ancient history. Still, she beats Kim and Serena once every 3 or 4 matches. She can't seem to solve Venus at all. Of course Justine beat Venus the first time they played. But seven straight losses since then spells 'can't beat at all'. In the last 12 months, Justine has 18 losses. 10 of those losses were inflicted by Serena, Venus or Kim.


well really?, ancient history? that's not possible with a player who is in her third full year in the tour. With a player that young and that's improving past statistics are meanless. What about Venus then? she has lost how many times to Serena?


2) She's a 'clay court specialist'

Again we need those single quotes. Look her her five victories over the current top three. Four victories on clay, one on grass.


well maybe the others are 'hardcourt specialists'


3) She still drops matches to non-elite competition. Kapros, Daniilidou, Irvin, Casanova, Dementieva.


this is the biggest piece of rubbish here.

Kapros: she was ILL, anyone with half a brain wouldn't even consider that, she had high fever. Then why don't we count Serena's loss to Shaughnessy?

Irvin? something the statistics don't say is that she retired on that match :p

Dementieva? well, if she isn't elite, then Davenport isn't as well, because she just won Amelia Island :p

Casanova Daniilidou, agree, bad losses. One come after she came back after a very dissapointing French Open, and she had several match points. Plus, Daniilidou won the title and is top 15 now.


ONE loss like that in a year is expected, even two.
FIVE is a lack of consistency, or a failure of focus.


I guess a top player must win even being ill, or must win even being injured. Venus, Serena don't do that, so I guess they are not elite players.

Then reduce those losses to 3: Daniilidou, Casanova and Dementieva.

Dementieva beat your favourite Davenport to win a tier 2, so that call isn't valid.

Daniilidou and Casanova remain as your two BAD losses, within tolerance.


Sure she loses to the 'Lesser Elite' (Myskina, Hantuchova, Dokic, Rubin, Seles) occasionally[/color], but so does everybody else.
The top twelve all have it in them to beat just about anyone.
But the keys to the Kingdom for Justine are cutting out losses to non-elite players, and improving that record against those ranked ahead of her.



so, you put Dokic at the same level as Seles? :rolleyes: Rubin at the same level as Myskina? :rolleyes:

enough said.


4) Lindsay Davenport is still carrying results from when she first returned to the tour. Run the numbers. Lindsay's going to be #4 before Roland Garros, absent injury. Justine was defending over 1000 points before RG. Lindsay was defending zilch. Statistically, Justine had to earn 300 more points than Lindsay to stay ranked ahead of her for RG. Right now, Lindsay is earning just as many points as Justine on Justine's best surface, and Lindsay's worst.
yes, and she not only defended the first part, she won extra points.

run the numbers, Davenport is not player until Madrid.

So if Justine wins two matches between Berlin and Rome, that's enough.

Statistically she has to earn 300 points more than Lindsay? what's that?

the points are won on the court not on the computer and I don't even understand what that means.

Lindsay is earning same points as Justine?, like in Family Circle for example? or Berlin and Rome where Lindsay is not playing?

It's ok to be wrong, but just twisting the facts to make a point :p


so far, on clay Justine has won: 420 + 127 = 547, that's more than 50 % of the total points she defends up to the French Open.

Lindsay: 229, how is she earning the same points? :confused:

plus, Hambur is not even in Justine's total, so it's all up to Berlin and Rome, which again, Lindsay is not playing.

You should get better information before making such a bold prediction.

SerenaSlam
Apr 20th, 2003, 09:38 PM
davenport will be the new number 4 in the world if she gets to the quarters at the at her next two clay tournies, and justine doesn't at least win it, i believe. but then, there is wimbledon, and for sure she will be number 4 by then, and also a good chance to become number 3 going into the usopen. She has 2 tounies I believe on hardcourt season where she can really add points, but after that she starts her defending ;)

Hurley
Apr 20th, 2003, 10:00 PM
Serena Slam, that's just wrong.

Justine has two more points to defend at the French than Lindsay = 2 and 0 points respectively.

SO, if Justine goes into the French ranked higher and does equal to or better than Lindsay, she will be ranked higher than Lindsay coming out of it, no matter how Lindsay does.

Rtael
Apr 20th, 2003, 10:08 PM
Yes, and Lindsay is now at 17 tournies at AI, so all her results after this might not count toward her ranking, and if they do, they will not be as high because thye will be replacing another tournament...

Kart
Apr 20th, 2003, 10:26 PM
It's too easy to say it's only a mental problem against Kim.

I didn't mean that at all. There's no doubting that Kim plays well against Justine. In my mind though is the match they played at Chase last year. Justine mentally didn't show up for that match IMHO. I'm thinking now though that she's doing that less and less.

starr
Apr 20th, 2003, 10:27 PM
S.S. -- Look at the previous posts. About 3 posters have pointed out that Lindsay is playing NO tournament before Roland Garros that will count in the seedings at Roland Garros. Lindsay is only playing at Madrid prior to Roland Garros and that tournament will not count toward the seeding. (might I point out that this more often than not is Lindsay's only clay tournament prior to R.G.?)

I also don't understand why Lindsay "for sure" will be number four by Wimbledon. Lindsay's results on red clay traditionally have been poor so it is not "for sure" that Lindsay will gain very many points in Madrid or at Roland Garros. Additionally, Henin is a good bet to go beyond the first round at Roland Garros this year.

Of course, it doesn't take brilliant analysis to determine that if Lindsay plays well and Henin doesn't, Lindsay will get the number 4 spot at some point.

Also where is the wisdom in the prediction that Lindsay has a good chance to be number 3 by the USO? I assume you aren't thinking that Lindsay will overtake Venus on Grass and American hardcourts? And that is a "good chance?"

If it's Kim who you see her replacing at the #3 slot, where is the good chance in that? She's not going to gain ground on Kim in the clay season, and after Rome last year, Kim didn't do better than the quarters at any tournament except one -- Stanford - final. So, it's not like Kim has a huge ton of points to defend in the summer. It's during the fall that she has the most points coming off.

I think that Lindsay has a good shot at rising in the ranking if she plays well and does better than her competitors, but isn't that really stating the obvious?

~|Naomi|~
Apr 21st, 2003, 12:18 AM
davenport will be the new number 4 in the world if she gets to the quarters at the at her next two clay tournies, and justine doesn't at least win it, i believe. but then, there is wimbledon, and for sure she will be number 4 by then, and also a good chance to become number 3 going into the usopen. She has 2 tounies I believe on hardcourt season where she can really add points, but after that she starts her defending

Okay I'm assuming you are saying she will pass KIm to become the number3 as you keep saying how Kim is going back to 3 and doesn't deserve number 2, so I am assuming it is Kim you think that davenport has a good chance to pass. How is that? I don't really see it as a good chance as Kim has 404 points to defend on the American hardcourts, that is including the 122 points from the US Open so pre Us Open on the hardcourts she only has 282 points to defend (189-Stanford, 93-San Deigo) and Kim will play LA, and one other tournie either New HAven or Toronto but not both. Davenport on the other hand has 718 points to defend on the hardcourts leading in to the US Open and 1116 points in total to defend when you include the US Open(398 for a semi final performance)

So to compare:
Lead in to US Open
Kim:282
Lindsay:718

At US Open:
Kim:122
Lindsay:398

Cumulative:
Kim:404
Lindsay:1116

Sure Lindsay will probably defend her points, but to think Kim doesn't have a chance to improve on last season's performance is wrong, Kim has one two tournaments on the American Hardcourts, Stanford and IW, and has defeated Davenport the 3 times they have played on American hardcourts(twice at Stanford and IW this year) so she can play well on hardcourts and it will therefore be tough for Davenport to pass her, it will be post US Open that Davenport has a good chance to pass her.