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Volcana
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:12 AM
Justine Henin-Hardenne (1) vs. Monica Seles (6)

Imagine a short, skinny, fast 21 year old Conchita Martinez with a big serve.

Now imagine a slow, 31 year old Monica Seles coming off an injury.

Eldritch Wizardry.

Daniela Hantuchova (4) vs. Elena Dementieva (10)

If you're a fan of brute force tennis, this Bud's for you. Nothing in the way of subtlety or variety in THIS matchup. This will be straightforward killing contest, baseline brute power new age tennis. Whoever hits best from the baseline, wins.

Put aside the H2H. Elena won the last time, Dani the 2 before that. They are well matched athletically. But Dani is a top tenplayer, while Elena struggles to stay top twenty. The matchup SHOULDN'T be close.
But it is. Why?

I think Dani short-changes herself against the big hitters, and retreats to the baseline. She HAS all court skills. she's a sound volley-er. She needs more of Chanda's 'derring-do'. What she has is Jelena Dokic's 'derring-don't'. By going back to the baseline, she stops using the very skills that make her more than one tall, baseline powermonger.
But Elena has an uber-weapon. The 2nd best, maybe even the BEST forehand in the thirty. On that side, sometimes, her racket doesn't just hit the ball, it detonates. She regularly hits winners by flicking her wrist. Her backhand is nowhere near as dangerous.

Dani's g-strokes are sound, but she can't match Elena's forehand off either wing. And her backhand isn't a lot better than Elena's. Maybe a little.

In a baseline power struggle, if Dani's serve isn't working WELL, Elena can wait for forehands and blow her off the court.

If Dani goes to net ....


Jennifer Capriati (3) vs. Lisa Raymond (12)

Old School. The first time they played was ten years ago at Wimbledon.

College Girl vs Teenage Phenom.

They both know the drill. Lisa will do what she should in case Jenn falls apart. Jenn will patiently wait til she gets chances at forehand winners.
There may not be an ace the whole match.

Lindsay Davenport (2) vs. Patty Schnyder (7)

One match out of ten, Patty brings the house. (See Schnyder vs S.Williams, QF Charleston 2002) If this match is #10, Lindsay's outathere. Otherwise, California Queen shouldn't have too much trouble.

kodeRED
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:17 AM
good review but i think that u underrate elena a bit too much...
still an excellent review

King Lindsay
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:20 AM
Not an ace in Raymond-Capriati match? I heard that lisa hit 12 today againt Dokic, going from 12 to zero would be quite a drop off.

These are some pretty cool QF matches.

tennisIlove09
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:22 AM
Capriati/Raymond...last three have gone three, but they haven't played since early 2001

Rtael
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:26 AM
lol...it's alot harder to ace a resurgent JCap then a more-then-just-slumping Dokic

King Lindsay
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:27 AM
I don't see how.

kournikovafan13
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:31 AM
[b]Dani's g-strokes are sound, but she can't match Elena's forehand off either wing. And her backhand isn't a lot better than Elena's. Maybe a little.



Daniela's backhand is miles better than Elena's. Or maybe you haven't seen the 2002 Indian Wells final yet.

I think they are even off the ground. Maybe Alyona hits more winners, but she also hits a lot more unforced errors. Elene had 16 more errors in her two set match today than Daniela had in her 3 set match. Like you said, it depends if Daniela's serve is on and if she has a game plan.

Volcana
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:31 AM
I don't see how.

For starters, Jenni C has way faster reaction time than Jelena. Jenni C gets her racket back faster. Jenni C has better footwork.

King Lindsay
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:32 AM
Aces, for the most part, are aces. It's a little more difficult to slam the ball past super retrievers like Serena or Venus, but nobody is unaceable. If you hit a good enough serve, it'll be an ace against anybody. Lisa hit 12 such serves against Jelena. If she does the same to capriati, she'll wind up with a comparable total.

King Lindsay
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:34 AM
For starters, Jenni C has way faster reaction time than Jelena. Jenni C gets her racket back faster. Jenni C has better footwork.

Way faster reaction time? Come on....

Maybe jen does have better footwork and better racket preparation. How that makes her immune to aces I don't know. If Lisa serves as well as she did today, she'll come up with a few against Jen too.

GrahamD
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:44 AM
Dani's serve was doing just fine today....long may it continue :D


Match Summary Hantuchova 1st SERVE % 72%
ACES 1
DOUBLE FAULTS 1
WINNING % - 1st SERVE PTS. 39 of 52 = 75%
WINNING % - 2nd SERVE PTS. 12 of 20 = 60%
WINNERS (INCLUDING SERVICE) 35
UNFORCED ERRORS 25
BREAK POINT CONVERSIONS 4 of 11 = 36 %
NET APPROACHES 9 of 12 = 75 %
TOTAL POINTS WON 94

Gowza
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:50 AM
all of these players have been to a grand slam quarter-final or better sometime in their career.

ys
Apr 18th, 2003, 02:59 AM
Daniela's backhand is miles better than Elena's. Or maybe you haven't seen the 2002 Indian Wells final yet.

That was.. an year ago? Has she won anything since?

I think they are even off the ground. Maybe Alyona hits more winners, but she also hits a lot more unforced errors. Elene had 16 more errors in her two set match today than Daniela had in her 3 set match.

Unlike Daniela, who played someone who would not chase most of retrievable balls, Elena played a super-defender today. Coetzer always makes you hit an extra shot, that's why almost any player will always be in high numbers for UEs against Coetzer. The number that tells more is that Elena hit 30+winners against Amanda in just two sets..

ys
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:00 AM
One review I am not really in agreement with is the last one. I think, that Davenport is exactly the kind of player that can really be frustrated by Schnyder. Patty reads the shots excellently, and on slow surface she will get a lot more balls back than Lindsay would hope for..

disposablehero
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:06 AM
Volcana, at some point in your life are you ever going to refer to Monica as her actual age rather than routinely inflating it a year or two?

Jarrett
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:09 AM
Volcana, at some point in your life are you ever going to refer to Monica as her actual age rather than routinely inflating it a year or two?

Never, next year she will be 35 in Volcana's mind.

selesfan
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:20 AM
One review I am not really in agreement with is the last one. I think, that Davenport is exactly the kind of player that can really be frustrated by Schnyder. Patty reads the shots excellently, and on slow surface she will get a lot more balls back than Lindsay would hope for..

I agree, Patty will mix up the shots and hit those loopy shots which should frustrate Lindsay but I am hoping Lindsay will be patient and win the match.

kournikovafan13
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:21 AM
That was.. an year ago? Has she won anything since?


That's not the point. No matter how bad your results have been since then, the shot is still there and its obvious that one of Daniela's biggest weapons is her backhand.

And by the way, if I were you I wouldn't be talking about winning anything. What has Elena won EVER? At least Daniela doesn't lose to the Asagoe's and the Pratt's of the world left and right.

I know that you think Daniela is overrated and overranked, blah blah blah. But the point is, is that she's better than Elena - period.

kournikovafan13
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:24 AM
Oh, and another thing.

Unlike Daniela, who played someone who would not chase most of retrievable balls, Elena played a super-defender today. Coetzer always makes you hit an extra shot, that's why almost any player will always be in high numbers for UEs against Coetzer. The number that tells more is that Elena hit 30+winners against Amanda in just two sets..

True, Amanda may get a lot of balls back, but she didn't do it very well today, helping Elena with 33 errors of her own. Once again, that's more than Daniela, despite Dani playing a set longer than Elena and Amanda did.

Volcana
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:27 AM
Way faster reaction time? Come on....

Maybe jen does have better footwork and better racket preparation. How that makes her immune to aces I don't know. If Lisa serves as well as she did today, she'll come up with a few against Jen too.

King L - It's not simply an issue of technique.

A good server won't try to ace a great returner as often.

Because trying for aces usually means more 2nd serves, and more 2nd serves against a Williams or Seles or Capriati is suicide. Lisa won't even try to ace Jenn as often. And if jenn's having a big returning day, SHE won't bother going for aces. She's just win off her forehand. The dynamics of this match are completely different than Raymond-Dokic.

selesfan
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:31 AM
That's not the point. No matter how bad your results have been since then, the shot is still there and its obvious that one of Daniela's biggest weapons is her backhand.

And by the way, if I were you I wouldn't be talking about winning anything. What has Elena won EVER? At least Daniela doesn't lose to the Asagoe's and the Pratt's of the world left and right.

I know that you think Daniela is overrated and overranked, blah blah blah. But the point is, is that she's better than Elena - period.

I agree! Daniela is a lot more talented than Elena. She has an all court game which takes a little longer to develop. Elena has a one dimensional game in my opinion, she just wacks the ball hard and flat all the time and lets not talk about how inconsistent she is.

King Lindsay
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:36 AM
King L - It's not simply an issue of technique.

A good server won't try to ace a great returner as often.

Because trying for aces usually means more 2nd serves, and more 2nd serves against a Williams or Seles or Capriati is suicide. Lisa won't even try to ace Jenn as often. And if jenn's having a big returning day, SHE won't bother going for aces. She's just win off her forehand. The dynamics of this match are completely different than Raymond-Dokic.

There you may have a point. That I can agree with.

what I was saying is that if Lisa served as well as she did against Dokic, there's no way she'd get shut down in the ace category against Jennifer. but if you're saying she'll approach the match completely differently, not go for aces, then I can agree things might be different.

And LOL, even i know Monica's 29! You must've gotten Conchita's age switched with Monica's cuz you mentioned her in the preceding sentence.

mishar
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:47 AM
Why does Volcana sound so pompous when in fact his analysis is filled with errors and weird half-baked notions about how tennis is played? Has he ever actually played tennis because I don't think he understands the game very well.
Monica is 29, not 31. Justine's game only resembles Conchita's in a very general way.
Dementieva has the best forehand in the top 30? Huh? And all that stuff about Hantuchova... huh?
Lisa waiting for Jen? Lisa's forehand is pretty nasty herself, and I'll bet there'll be a few aces.
And what YS said.

switz
Apr 18th, 2003, 07:09 AM
volcana just loves to think he/she has some innate tennis knowledge that nobody else possesses and that there should be no questioning of his/her insights.

Problems with analysis:

1) Hantuchova's backhand is a much stronger shot than you give her credit for. Elena has one of the worst backhand in the top 30 IMO and if daniela's is only slightly better i just don't see how she ever got to world no 5. if she has average ground-strokes, an all-court game she never uses and a on and off serve how the hell has she made the quarter finals of last four grand slams, or even this tournament for that matter?

2) Comparing martinez and henin is like comparing coetzer and serena because they have a two handed backhand. their similarities are very much supercial. justine may not be in the top power class but she certainly uses power to win a hell of a lot of matches, and about 1000 times more than martinez does. being able to hit an angled shot doesn't make two players carbon copies off one another.

3) Justine Henin trailed Dechy 2-6, 2-3 in charlseton last week and had to grind out a tough victory in order to advance. Monica Seles beat dechy 6-1, 6-2 with a sore neck and in only her second match since dubai. ergo i think your analysis is pretty weak.

4) i bet an ace will be hit in capriati/raymond even though your thoughts are on the mark with this one

5) Patty brings her A game every 9 matches, not 10 ;) Seriously though i think pattty knows how to get lindsay frustrated and an annoyed davenport is a very beatable opponent eg henin at this year's aus open; patty in zurich last year. this match's outcome i feel very much comes down to how patty plays, which i think in itself is a big iniication of just how good patty is.

per4ever
Apr 18th, 2003, 07:16 AM
3) Justine Henin trailed Dechy 2-6, 2-3 in charlseton last week and had to grind out a tough victory in order to advance. Monica Seles beat dechy 6-1, 6-2 with a sore neck and in only her second match since dubai. ergo i think your analysis is pretty weak.


euhm you can't compare scores like that ;) Every match is different. Justine had problems in the two first rounds in Charleston but then won against Serena. Topplayers are able to play their best when needed.

bis2806
Apr 18th, 2003, 08:24 AM
Lindsay's road to the final is starting to get tough from here..... she has patty in the quarters and then either jen or raymond in semis... good luck!!!:D

switz
Apr 18th, 2003, 08:59 AM
euhm you can't compare scores like that ;) Every match is different. Justine had problems in the two first rounds in Charleston but then won against Serena. Topplayers are able to play their best when needed.

i am not taking those scores as the basis for why i think monica has a chance, but to show volcana that monica is player who can still crush players who give other great players trouble. he basically uses that the logic that henin is young and monica is old and therefore henin will win. i am not saying justine won't win, but his argument is stupid in my opinion. obviously those scores will not have much of an impact on the seles/henin match. i just think it is totally unfair the way he writes seles off despite the way that all of their matches have been close, as seen recently in dubia. i am sure it will be great match and the better player on the day will go on to lose to patty in the final :)

DEETHELICK
Apr 18th, 2003, 12:23 PM
The analysis seemed pretty fair and kool :)

I think Monica will put up more of a fight, yes Justine has got variety etc, but Monica is experienced and knows how to deal with that. Plus she can overpower Justine if she really wants to!

Daniela's BH is her best shot and it is better than Elena's altho Elena has also improved hers this year. Yes Elena makes errors....so? Daniela dropped a set to clay hating Stevenson, I don't think thats something to be proud of!!

Daniela has an all court game, but she always seems to stay at the baseline, against Elena she has to mix it up. She won't though and Elena will overpower her. Plus Elena moves way better and on clay, movement is essential.

The other two are spot on, altho I think Jen will subdue Lisa.

ys
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:42 PM
1) Hantuchova's backhand is a much stronger shot than you give her credit for.


Hantuchova's backhand is nothing extraordinary, besides hitting it down-the-line is not only a low-percentage play, it is also a hitting to Dementieva's forehand on slow surface.

Elena has one of the worst backhand in the top 30


BS. Her backhand is too open-stanced and too much relies on timing. But on slow surface it is not that important - on clay you have time. Her backhand becomes vulnerable only on faster surfaces. If you receieve "Tennis" magazine, you would remember that as late as last year her backhand was described in details and in phased pictures, and was considered as a model backhand and one of the best in business. And I would not think that the people who write there know the sport worse than you.


IMO and if daniela's is only slightly better i just don't see how she ever got to world no 5.


Luck. Pure luck. She is by no means Top 5 worth or even Top 10 worth. Off the ground she is no match for Dementieva, and unless Elena has an extraordinarily bad serving day ( not "just" bad, which she has nearly every match ), Elena will win.

if she has average ground-strokes, an all-court game she never uses and a on and off serve how the hell has she made the quarter finals of last four grand slams, or even this tournament for that matter?


Luck. She had extraordinarily lucky draws in all four Slams, where she didn't have to face a single big player. And that's on the way to QFs of 4 Slams. The biggest name she faced was Henin at US Open, and we all know that Justine can't play on US hardcourts.

Experimentee
Apr 18th, 2003, 03:58 PM
Its a pretty fair analysis, but I think shes overrating Elena. No way is it the 2nd best FH in the top 30. Btw isnt Volcana female?

Volcana
Apr 18th, 2003, 08:04 PM
volcana just loves to think he/she has some innate tennis knowledge that nobody else possesses and that there should be no questioning of his/her insights.

And where, oh great sage, have I ever written that there 'should be no questioning' of anything I wrote. You wanna argue, argue. Icould care less. But right now, my analysis is looking pretty good.

Davenport d Schnyder 6-1 6-1

Henin-Hardenne d Seles 6-2 6-4

Dementieva d Hantuchova 6-0 6-1

Volcana
Apr 18th, 2003, 08:06 PM
Why does Volcana sound so pompous when in fact his analysis is filled with errors and weird half-baked notions about how tennis is played? Has he ever actually played tennis because I don't think he understands the game very well.

Hey mishar, how's my analysis doing so far?

Volcana
Apr 18th, 2003, 11:00 PM
When's Jenn?

King Lindsay
Apr 18th, 2003, 11:07 PM
A matter of moments away, I think.

Volcana
Apr 18th, 2003, 11:53 PM
Jenn wins the 1st set 6-2 and there have been NO aces.

Fingon
Apr 19th, 2003, 12:03 AM
Justine is Conchita with a big serve? :confused:

I thought she was little Serena :confused:

or do Serena and Conchita play similar games? is Serena Conchita with a big serve but bigger? :confused:

Volcana
Apr 19th, 2003, 12:05 AM
6-2 5-0 no aces yet. Jenn will probably hit one in the last game, just to ruin my little predictive streak here.

Volcana
Apr 19th, 2003, 12:07 AM
No Aces!!!! It's about time to go out and buy a lottery ticket. :)

King Lindsay
Apr 19th, 2003, 12:09 AM
Jenn wins the 1st set 6-2 and there have been NO aces.

Volcana, I gotta tip my hat. You were right. No aces at all.

Volcana
Apr 19th, 2003, 12:13 AM
King L - It's all matchups. The semis are a tougher proposition. I'm not at all sure how Justine will decide to beat Elena.

Who do you like in Capriati-Davenport?

BK4ever
Apr 19th, 2003, 12:19 AM
If Juju serves well...Elena will be lucky to win a game...

Lindsay will have to be ultra aggressive with her groundies to beat Jen on clay...she better stay away from long rallies

Mercury Rising
Apr 19th, 2003, 10:44 AM
Volcana needs more appreciation for this thread. :worship: Volcana ;)

Glenn
Apr 19th, 2003, 10:52 AM
you should rename this thread to disapointing, blow out Amelia Island QFs :eek: These matches all sucked....bring me a Williams, I say....


Elena will get chewed up but Juju...I hope the Davy- Cappy match lives up to the potential :rolleyes:
Why do we need a Williams?

Glenn
Apr 19th, 2003, 10:58 AM
And where, oh great sage, have I ever written that there 'should be no questioning' of anything I wrote. You wanna argue, argue. Icould care less. But right now, my analysis is looking pretty good.

Davenport d Schnyder 6-1 6-1

Henin-Hardenne d Seles 6-2 6-4

Dementieva d Hantuchova 6-0 6-1
You were all negative about Dementieva in your preview!
You obviously thought Daniela would win and the other matches were just no-brainers.

DEETHELICK
Apr 19th, 2003, 12:28 PM
I hope Elena can provide Justine with a stiff challenge, there is NO reason why she cannot.

And I hope Jen wins too :)

She definitely has the advantage on this surface just because of her movement!

switz
Apr 19th, 2003, 02:53 PM
You were all negative about Dementieva in your preview!
You obviously thought Daniela would win and the other matches were just no-brainers.

i was not negative about elena, in fact i tipped her to win in PAW! i was talking about dani

Volcana
Apr 19th, 2003, 03:03 PM
You were all negative about Dementieva in your preview!
You obviously thought Daniela would win and the other matches were just no-brainers.

Glenn - I believe you post is directed at me, rather than switz. I wrote this about Elena in the preview.

Elena has an uber-weapon. The 2nd best, maybe even the BEST forehand in the thirty. On that side, sometimes, her racket doesn't just hit the ball, it detonates. She regularly hits winners by flicking her wrist.

Is that negative?

Do I believe Dani is the superior player? Yes. I feel she has a wider variety of high quality shots, and can play an all court, or baseline game. But for some reason, Dani chooses to play from the baseline. Elena is at her best playing not-TOO-hard hitting, flat hitting baseliners. Which is how Dani chooses to play all too often, even though she has a wide array of other tools at her disposal. I certainly did NOT expect Sherman-through-Georgia.

switz
Apr 19th, 2003, 03:08 PM
And where, oh great sage, have I ever written that there 'should be no questioning' of anything I wrote. You wanna argue, argue. Icould care less. But right now, my analysis is looking pretty good.

Davenport d Schnyder 6-1 6-1

Henin-Hardenne d Seles 6-2 6-4

Dementieva d Hantuchova 6-0 6-1

i congratulate you on your predictions, but those are just scores, which doesn't mean everything you said was right. patty brought close to her best game today and didn't come close, lindsay competely outclassed her, and there was nothing patty could have done about it. justine beat monica, but how doesn't prove your martinez comparison has any more validity. no aces were served in jcap/raymond but i already said your logic was right on that one. dani was awful, and i don't know what is wrong with her. obviously her game is really off, but i still don't accept that she doesn't have good ground strokes or that her rise was pure luck.

i read my original post and what i said at the start was harsh. i edited this post as well. i will put it down to the fact that two of my mates that i have played tennis with/against died in a car accident last week, so i have found myself at times having a low tolerance and getting too worked up about things. sorry

Volcana
Apr 19th, 2003, 03:31 PM
switz - Sorry to hear about your mates. Bummer.

As for the rest, I think maybe you're not processing all the available information. Check out other threads I've written. I LOVE a good arguement. There's nothing better on a message board than exchanging facts and seeing who has a good arguement. I'm not a fan of exchanging insults. So when the first couple of responses had so many personal insults, I just waited and let reality do the talking.

This is supposed to be a fun place to write stuff. I'm amaze the Henin-Martinez comment provked so much ire. I said a 'short, skinny, fast Martinez with a big serve'. Well Conchi was never, short, skinny, fast and never had a big serve. Obviously, add all that on, and you have a very un-Conchi player.

I disagree with you about Patty. That was nowhere near her best. That certainly wasn't the same quality of tennis that beat Serena at Charleston last year.

And that thing about Monica's age, people got negative with their corrections so fast, I kinda developed a 'if you're going to be nasty about it, I'm leaving it that way response'. I could have been more mature about that one, but I HATE being cooperative when people are rude, I HATE it. So when people get nasty, I tend to leave posted whatever provoked them. It's easy to do, and it's guaranteed to annoy.