#8 really seems to be the magic number in time for the french open, but that is soooo far away! if you think about it, top 10 really does not mean much because it may still mean that monica will not have a top 8 seed and will maybe have to play serena 4th round or something crazy like that. the seeds for roland garros are made after the italian open, so that means monica will not lose madrid points for seeding time (since she isn't defending it). so i guess it all boils down to "what will she need to do to be at #8?" i'm no rankings guru, but she needs to make up almost 700 points, and that's a very very tall order despite the fact that she is defending nothing. i still think she needs to play warsaw because she would be a top 4 seed at a tournament larger than amelia island... thats a lot of points she could get without really playing top players. what do you guys think?
for all the people who do projected rankings, heres your time to shine!
Apr 14th, 2003, 12:59 AM
Ok,... here we go.
Monica enters AI w/1784 points and #12.
#8 is 2524 points, so let's just say that if she gets 2525, she'll be #8 (but this could be a little off):
Winning AI, beating the highest seeds possible (Dechy, Henin, Hantuchova, & Davenport) would give her +376. Let's say this happens:
1784 + 376 = 2160, and still #12 rank.
Her next scheduled event is Rome which is a Tier I. Let's say she wins that, beating Serena, Venus, and Kim (1, 2, and 3).... roughly add 550 for that (this number is very arbitrary)...
2160 + 550 = 2710 which puts her at #6/#7.
I love our girl, but I really don't know about her beating V&S in the same week. So let's say more realistically, she makes QF... instead of 550, add about 175 or so.
2160 + 175 = 2335 / #10 rank.
Now, this run to #8 would be much more easy to grab if Monica entered the J&S Cup in Poland... a Tier IIa. Say she gets to the SF, add another 200 and you have 2535 and a #8 rank.
So, it's all sketchy, but for the sake of argument and until the actual draw is out w/bonus pts in Rome and her results are done...
A QF in Rome gets her #10.
A WIN in Rome gets her top 8.
If she adds J&S Cup (I wish she would!), I see no problem getting #8 seed.
****Mind you the seeds for RG are done immediately after Rome, so Monica's Madrid points do not matter at all. Therefore she should skip Madrid, let those points fall off and add J&S Cup in Poland****
Summary: Top 8 seed can be done (though she may be ranked 9/10 at time RG actually starts as she loses Madrid from 2002). If she wins Rome, then she's good to go, as long as she wins a bunch of quality points. If she adds Poland, and makes SF there and a QF in Rome, I still think #8 could very much be within her reach. ---> of course she'll need to be healthy - and all of this is based on her winning Amelia Island.....
Apr 14th, 2003, 01:22 AM
Its going to be tough
but id rather Monica be the #13th seed
so she can beat Kim, Lindsay, and Serena back to back to shut up the haters
Apr 14th, 2003, 02:37 AM
no way? #13... that means she would have to play miserably up until the french open...
Apr 14th, 2003, 02:39 AM
ive checked and hantuchova, dokic, myskina, and chanda all have an even number of points to defend. they all played really inconsistently last year on the dirt.
Apr 14th, 2003, 02:52 AM
no way if monica is the 13th seed then she will face the 1-4 seeds in the 4th round.
Hopefully Monica can be no.8(or better) after Rome and with any luck get a good draw .... but we know how "lucky" Monica is..
Apr 14th, 2003, 11:48 AM
Great news!! Thanks Seles!
Apr 21st, 2003, 05:13 AM
Dementieva is now creeping up
12(12) Seles 1,864
13(21) Dementieva 1,688
Week after next Dementieva has 34 Bol Quaterfinal taken off but she is playing the German Open and Rome.