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CHOCO
Dec 6th, 2002, 08:07 AM
http://imgfarm.com/images/ap/MIDEAST_KUWAIT_US_ARMY.sff_KUW110_20021205162327.j pg
U.S. Army forces move across the Kuwaiti desert during live-fire excercises near the Iraqi border, Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2002


Study: Iraq War Could Cost $1.9 Trillion


Dec 6, 3:02 AM (ET)

By SIOBHAN McDONOUGH

WASHINGTON (AP) - In the worst case, a war with Iraq could cost the United States almost as much as the government spent in the last budget year - nearly $2 trillion, according to new projections.

Researchers concluded in a study released Thursday that war with Iraq could cost the United States from $99 billion to more than $1.9 trillion over a decade.

The lower figure assumes a successful military, diplomatic and nation-building campaign; the higher figure assumes a prolonged war with a disruption of oil markets and a U.S. recession, the authors say in a study by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Both figures assume a U.S. involvement in the country for 10 years.


White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said it was premature to comment on cost estimates.

"War is the last resort," he said. "We're hoping for a peaceful solution."

The 1991 Persian Gulf War cost America an estimated $61 billion, but allies reimbursed all but about $7 billion. By some accounting methods, the United States may have even made a profit.

Direct military spending could range from $50 billion in a short campaign to $140 billion in a prolonged war with Iraq, said the study titled, "War With Iraq: Costs, Consequences and Alternatives." The study was done by the academy's Committee on International Security Studies.

The report cautioned that aside from the estimates of direct military costs, all the numbers should be "regarded as informed conjecture."

Occupation and peacekeeping costs could be $75 billion in the best case to $500 billion in the worst, the study said. Reconstruction and nation-building costs are estimated at $30 billion to $105 billion, and humanitarian aid at $1 billion to $10 billion.

Economic ripples of war with Iraq are likely to spread beyond budgetary costs, with the prospect of raising the cost of imported oil, slowing productivity growth and possibly triggering a recession, the report said.

A prolonged disruption of world oil markets could cost the U.S. economy up to $778 billion, the researchers estimated. On the other hand, Iraq's huge oil resources could satisfy U.S. needs for imported oil at current levels for almost a century and otherwise benefit the economy by $40 billion.

A short war could actually benefit the United States in terms of its macroeconomic impact, which includes employment, by $17 billion. A long war, in contrast, could have a $391 billion negative effect.

The American Academy of Arts and Sciences, founded in 1780 and based in Cambridge, Mass., is an international society of scientists, scholars, artists, business people and political leaders.

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Scotso
Dec 6th, 2002, 08:33 AM
It's funny that Republicans are the ones trying to hoarde all the money, yet the constantly are getting us into wars that cause our economy to go kaput.

CHOCO
Dec 6th, 2002, 01:41 PM
Tha't an obscene amount of money to prosecute a war.

Seles_Beckham
Dec 6th, 2002, 01:49 PM
America is going to pay

CHOCO
Dec 6th, 2002, 05:15 PM
:)

CHOCO
Dec 6th, 2002, 05:53 PM
focused on Iraq? Bush seems to want war regardless

The inspectors looking for weapons of mass destruction in Saddam Husseinís Iraq have begun their work and they have paid a surprise visit to one of the 19 palace complexes dotted around the country, one of them has as many as 90 buildings in a single compound. By all accounts they have found nothing that was not supposed to be there. It is early days yet, but some reports suggest that inspectors are saying sotto voce that a few items, which were there earlier are missing. It is difficult to follow the reasoning. If these allegedly missing items are targeted, then the simple answer is that they should have been taken out the last time, when in fact they were discovered. If they are not suspect then the inspectors need to be told that it is none of their business. Nor is comment relevant about Saddamís lifestyle. It is weapons of a certain type that are targeted, not Saddamís preferences as regards palaces. It may be said that so many palatial compounds for a poor country like Iraq is an anachronism but that is for the Iraqi people to judge, not for inspectors and even less for those who expect positive discoveries from their labour, to pontificate. Iraq has also announced that the required declaration of weapons will be furnished a day in advance of the deadline. This must surprise and indeed disappoint Bush who is itching to go.
The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan declares himself well pleased with the way the inspections have gone so far and with Iraqi cooperation. He understands his responsibilities to the Security Council, to the latest resolution on Iraq and to the United Nations and it can be assumed that he would not make such as comment lightly. But George Bush is not consoled. He has gone ahead and signed approval of a budget of $200 billion for the war on Iraq which to his intellect is only postponed and he continues to threaten Saddam with dire consequences instead of like the Secretary-General, welcoming the current hopeful signs. He also continues to build up his arsenal for a war that the rest of the world, except perhaps Tony Blair, fervently prays will never happen; even as his bully-boys and bully girl in Washington monotonously repeat the threats.
Bush is not as stupid as he sounds and behaves. He understands that the current hysteria he has generated in America keeps him at the head of the popularity charts even as it enabled him to wrest control of Congress from the Democrats and was hailed as one of the few Presidents in history to do so. He does not look beyond to the economy and to the other social consequences of altering the whole way of life of the American people because that is too difficult. Howling threats and rattling sabres just as often as he can get in front of a microphone is all he will do until the reckoning in money, material and above all in social costs, in shattered beliefs in the rule of law, in the worth of human life and human personality and liberal values for which America has sacrificed and worked, is forced upon this misguided and dangerous man.
Bush is driving convinced opponents of Islamic fundamentalism to look upon another attack on American interests, now that Osama bin Laden is confirmed to be alive as we have always said, as the only circumstance that will stop Bush in his tracks. American public opinion, once freed of hysteria, is bound to assert itself. It is a thousand pities that it is taking so long.