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Tennis Observer
Jul 25th, 2011, 01:34 PM
Season End 2011
Julia’s (updated) goal is to grab a Top 20 spot at season end 2011. If she succeeds she will have access to Top 20 WC (two for each non-mandatory tournament) in 2012 season but has to include her best two P5 tournament results. As a new Top 20 player she will start with her best P5 result within the 52 weeks cycle (= 70 points from Toronto 2011) in Doha 2012 (assuming she will play there) following with Rome 2012.

The next table shows live ranking for those players who compete for a season end Top 20 spot (please mind, as Beijing is a mandatory event, I only count the eight best results of players tournament of choices; this and points earned during the week are the reason why ranking points are different to "WTA Race" (http://www.wtatennis.com/page/RaceToSECSingles/0,,12781,00.html)):

Points 15th 16th Tournaments
18. Flavia Pennetta (ITA) 2,490 70 30 L L
19. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) 2,487 30 1 M
20. Julia Görges (GER) 2,225 30 30 L L
21. Dominika Cibulková (SVK) 2,215 70 60 L M
22. Roberta Vinci (ITA) 2,110 70 60 M B
23. Daniela Hantuchová (SVK) 2,095 120 120 L B
24. Yanina Wickmayer (BEL) 2,050 70 70 L
25. Ana Ivanović (SRB) 1,940 70 60 L B



This is Julia's relevant scorecard in detail:

Mandatory Tournaments of Choice
GS (4) PM (4) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Σ
640 540 470 130 125 120 70 70 30 30 2,225 points
In 2010 Maria Kirilenko (RUS) earned # 20 at season end by acumulating 2,550 points. Compared to that score, Julia is 330 points short. However, as Julia holds # 19 on 10/03/11 by accumulating 2,435 points (Ana Ivanovic's 2,470 points are good for # 18), it looks like the bar is slightly lower this year.

Here is one (of many) scenarios how may cross the finish line for playing her first Top 20 season:

Tournament Seed Tier Result Points Net points
Linz 6 I SF 130 100
Luxembourg 7* I SF 130 100
200
* estimated


Australian Open 2012 Seed
A realistic goal for Julia should be a seed within 17th to 24th tier (= planned meeting of a 9th to 16th seed in R3). The next table shows live ranking as of 10/10/11 for # 17 to # 24 tier plus four more or less close contenders (# 16 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova accumulated 2,765 ranking points):

Points 15th 16th
17. Sabine Lisicki (GER) 2,679 10 1
18. Flavia Pennetta (ITA) 2,490 70 30
19. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) 2,458 1 1
20. Dominika Cibulková (SVK) 2,175 60 30
21. Julia Görges (GER) 2,125 30 30
22. Roberta Vinci (ITA) 2,110 70 60
23. Daniela Hantuchová (SVK) 2,095 120 120
24. Ana Ivanović (SRB) 1,945 70 60
26. Maria Kirilenko (RUS) 1,930 40 40
25. Yanina Wickmayer (BEL) 1,851 70 1
27. Lucie Šafářová (CZE) 1,790 30 30
28. Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP) 1,765 120 70
Results from Sydney/Hobart 2011 until Brisbane/Auckland 2012

This is Julia's relevant scorecard in detail:

Mandatory Tournaments of Choice
GS (4) PM (4) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Σ
640 540 470 125 120 70 70 30 30 30 2,125 points

After Brisbane 2011 Flavia Penetta (ITA) sits on # 24 and accumulated 2,355 points. Maria Kirilenko (RUS) holds # 24 by accumulating 2,210 ranking points (as of 10/10/11). Assuming the bar is 2,250 Julia is short of 125 ranking points.

Julia has (at least) four opportunities to earn these additional points, such as:

Tournament Tier Result Points Net points
Linz I QF 70 40
Luxembourg I QF 70 40
Brisbane P R2 60 30
110

18majors
Jul 25th, 2011, 01:55 PM
Julia needs to pick up her tempo of play if she is to break into top 10.

Tennis Observer
Jul 27th, 2011, 11:49 PM
If Julia will score her first Top 20 season in 2011, she can be very proud of herself.

Tennis Observer
Aug 24th, 2011, 07:05 PM
After the end of the US Hardcourt season, Julia's goal to be a Top 20 player at season end is all but not a safe journey. For those who are interested, I have updated the opener.

Banditoo
Feb 26th, 2012, 05:23 PM
Can you update it, please. I think that Julia will be in top 15 after IW and Miami.