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View Full Version : New TOP10 Player after AO - Who will replace Sharapova???


Cp6uja
Jan 12th, 2009, 05:37 AM
WTA Ranking list after Australian Open:

1. Jelena Jankovic SRB_______ 8300 + AO
2. Dinara Safina RUS_________ 7550 + AO + Sydnay
3. Serena Williams USA_______ 7232 + AO + Sydnay
4. Elena Dementieva RUS______ 6986 + AO + Sydnay
5. Venus Williams USA________ 6044 + AO
6. Vera Zvonareva RUS________ 5740 + AO
7. Ana Ivanovic SRB__________ 5332 + AO
8. Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS___ 5010 + AO
---------------------------------------------------
9. Agnieszka Radwanska POL___ 4032 + AO
__________________________________________________ _
10. Nadia Petrova RUS________ 3601 + AO

11. Flavia Pennetta ITA______ 3120 + AO
12. Caroline Wozniacki DEN___ 3070 + AO
13. Maria Sharapova RUS______ 3030
14. Patty Schnyder SUI_______ 2929 + AO
15. Alize Cornet FRA_________ 2922 + AO
16. Vika Azarenka BLR________ 2886 + AO
17. Marion Bartoli FRA_______ 2815 + AO


Needs at least AO final:
18. Dominika Cibulkova SVK___ 2599 + AO
19. Anna Chakvetadze RUS_____ 2544 + AO
20. Katarina Srebotnik SLO___ 2404 + AO
...etc



Petrova is in obviously by far best position to reach TOP10 spot instead Sharapova, but on other hand she is obviously not 100% ready to compete after big illness problems. Other contenders except at least QF at AO and Petrova early upset, needs also good result at Sydnay (Hobart) this week.

Haute
Jan 12th, 2009, 05:39 AM
Definitely Nadia and maybe Flavia as the next likely contender.

kaktusino
Jan 12th, 2009, 05:42 AM
I hope Flavia.

Shvedbarilescu
Jan 12th, 2009, 06:16 AM
For now, almost certainly Petrova. The others are too far behind. But I believe several others will have chances later on in the season.

sunsfuns
Jan 12th, 2009, 06:30 AM
For now, almost certainly Petrova. The others are too far behind. But I believe several others will have chances later on in the season.

I agree. Some massive results (at least AO QF) by Nadia's closest followers would be needed to overtake her even if she doesn't play AO at all.


Besides those calculated points are not correct. Wozniacki, for example, currently has 3330 and with only AO 4th round point coming off (280 points) will have safe 3050 points instead of 2990...

Aryman3
Jan 12th, 2009, 06:56 AM
Keep an eye on Urszula Radwanska. She's young, gifted and ready

Keadz
Jan 12th, 2009, 06:59 AM
Patty has only 2nd round points to defend hopefully she can make a run but most probably her and Nadia will lose first round.

Shvedbarilescu
Jan 12th, 2009, 07:07 AM
Keep an eye on Urszula Radwanska. She's young, gifted and ready

Yes, Ula is young, gifted and ready. But she sure as hell isn't about to be Maria Sharapova's replacement in the top 10 post Australian Open. :lol:

Maybe in 2 or 3 years if things go very well, who knows.

Mynarco
Jan 12th, 2009, 07:10 AM
Nadia...

DragonFlame
Jan 12th, 2009, 07:13 AM
Definetly petrova for now, unless wozniaki performs well at sydney, and reaches the australian open quarterfinals while petrova crashes out early.

Junex
Jan 12th, 2009, 07:17 AM
i wish a breakthrough for a young gun!
One of Caro, Vika and Alize!

Josh.
Jan 12th, 2009, 07:55 AM
Flavia :hearts:

Cp6uja
Jan 12th, 2009, 08:28 AM
Besides those calculated points are not correct. Wozniacki, for example, currently has 3330 and with only AO 4th round point coming off (280 points) will have safe 3050 points instead of 2990...Wozniacki 16th best result is 60 pts, so after AO she will have 3050+AO+Sydnay-60 which means 2990+AO+Sydnay... etc...

lilimi
Jan 12th, 2009, 08:29 AM
nadia was ill not so long ago. it's beteween caro and vika but i chose vika.

Dexter
Jan 12th, 2009, 08:39 AM
If Nadia sucks in Melbourne, Flavia or Caro have a chance if they go far + do well in Sydney/Hobart. But I'm sure Nadia will find a way to the 4th round as she always does even when she's out of form.
Keep an eye on Urszula Radwanska. She's young, gifted and readyQuite irrevelant, no?

frupachino
Jan 12th, 2009, 08:42 AM
azarenka.

i've only seen her play twice but i just *know*.

got this exact feeling about roger federer when he was number 40, and no one believed me. :D

Hedgehog
Jan 12th, 2009, 08:44 AM
Petrova. :bounce:

MrSerenaWilliams
Jan 12th, 2009, 10:17 AM
Maybe of the younger guns if Petrova falls early, but Petrova is certainly poised to rejoin the Top 10

Medina
Jan 12th, 2009, 10:19 AM
or.. who will replace Ivanovic, after she looses a 1r-3r....?

Lulu.
Jan 12th, 2009, 10:23 AM
At this point Petrova.

But we'll see after the AO.

Richie's
Jan 12th, 2009, 10:27 AM
Flavia or Daniela after taking the Open!!!!;)

sunsfuns
Jan 12th, 2009, 01:12 PM
Wozniacki 16th best result is 60 pts, so after AO she will have 3050+AO+Sydnay-60 which means 2990+AO+Sydnay... etc...

:confused:

Her 16th best is 100, but in any case you don't have to subtract that number. Ignoring Sydney (let's assume she doesn't earn anything higher that 100 there) 3330-280+AO. If AO wasn't mandatory you would have to add not not subtract her next best result...

P.S. Look up TBE's thread if you don't believe me...

Cp6uja
Jan 12th, 2009, 01:57 PM
or.. who will replace Ivanovic, after she looses a 1r-3r....?Maria Sharapova will lose for sure her TOP10 status on February 2 WTA list after 239 consecutive weeks at TOP10 (since July of 2004) and most likely she will drop from TOP15 also that monday.

With bad results or injury problems in 1st half of 2009 season Ana Ivanovic will be in 1st big problems to stay in TOP10 in June, after Roland Garros. But talking about Ana week after AO/2009 she will be in really big problems to stay in TOP5 after 65 consecutive weeks (since October 2007). In some scenarios (if Venus reach final and with solid this week result Elena and Serena needs at least AO QF) - Ana will drop from TOP5 even like Australian Open 2009 Champion!

Other important personal "rankings strike" which will be in danger week after AO is Jelena Jankovic 17 weeks #1 regime (since October 2008) - with Serena, Dinara or Elena AO title she needs final to stay #1 or with Serena or Dinara runner-up AO result JJ needs at least semifinal.


:confused:

Her 16th best is 100, but in any case you don't have to subtract that number. Ignoring Sydney (let's assume she doesn't earn anything higher that 100 there) 3330-280+AO. If AO wasn't mandatory you would have to add not not subtract her next best result...

P.S. Look up TBE's thread if you don't believe me...For all players which will try to overtake Nadia Petrova this week result is crucial for TOP10 ambition, so if i calculate 60pts instead 100pts 16th best Wozniacki result that only means her contender status is 2950+AO+Sydnay (to cut-off 100 instead 60pts). If i put 3050+AO+Sydnay that will give not correct picture to voters how good looks her chances. Result of Australian Open 2008 will be simple replaced with Australian Open 2009 result so no needs for any other corrections.

sunsfuns
Jan 12th, 2009, 02:39 PM
For all players which will try to overtake Nadia Petrova this week result is crucial for TOP10 ambition, so if i calculate 60pts instead 100pts 16th best Wozniacki result that only means her contender status is 2950+AO+Sydnay (to cut-off 100 instead 60pts). If i put 3050+AO+Sydnay that will give not correct picture to voters how good looks her chances. Result of Australian Open 2008 will be simple replaced with Australian Open 2009 result so no needs for any other corrections.

That's not correct. What you are doing now is confusing because Sydney result will replace the 16th best result only if it is higher. There is no scenario under which Wozniacki has less than 3050 points after AO...

Correct formula would be: IF Sydney>16th best ---> 3050+AO+Sydney-16th best; If Sydney<16th best ----> 3050+AO


If you do stats you need to do them right...

Cp6uja
Jan 12th, 2009, 02:48 PM
That's not correct. What you are doing now is confusing because Sydney result will replace the 16th best result only if it is higher. There is no scenario under which Wozniacki has less than 3050 points after AO...

Correct formula would be: IF Sydney>16th best ---> 3050+AO+Sydney-16th best; If Sydney<16th best ----> 3050+AO
No... this your formula is perfect to Confusing voters.

Wozniacki "contenders" current status is 2950+AO+Sydnay
If she lose today i will edit her status to 3050+AO

BTW i just edit Azarenka status from 2886+AO+Sydnay to new 2886+AO b/c her Sydnays withdraws, which means her chances now looks by far worse (now she needs at least AO semifinal to overtake Petrova). This example shows how crucial is Sydnay/Hobart results for all this players TOP10 ambitions.

joćo.
Jan 12th, 2009, 03:31 PM
I want Flavia but it will probably be Caroline.

igralec33
Jan 12th, 2009, 04:59 PM
I think Petrova, but hope Pennetta.

fufuqifuqishahah
Jan 12th, 2009, 05:04 PM
haaaaay

its Sydnaaaaay

:rolleyes:

misael
Jan 12th, 2009, 05:17 PM
It would be nice if Flavia became the first ITALIAN women to be in the top ten.

gumoll
Jan 12th, 2009, 05:21 PM
Vika or Caro

Dodoboy.
Jan 12th, 2009, 05:28 PM
Caro :shrug:

Or Domi

gmak
Jan 12th, 2009, 06:16 PM
nadia ;)
she has AO QF points to defend but after that she has NOTHING to defend until Eastbourne :)

vika, caro and flavia are closing in as well :)

Dexter
Jan 12th, 2009, 06:21 PM
nadia ;)
she has AO QF points to defend but after that she has NOTHING to defend until Eastbourne :)

vika, caro and flavia are closing in as well :)Nope, she doesn't.
AO 4r: Agnieszka Radwańska POL [29] def. Nadia Petrova RUS [14] 16 75 60. :drool::hearts::devil:

gmak
Jan 12th, 2009, 06:27 PM
Nope, she doesn't.
AO 4r: Agnieszka Radwańska POL [29] def. Nadia Petrova RUS [14] 16 75 60. :drool::hearts::devil:

:o you're right
I've blocked that match from my memory
nadia led 6-1 3-0 :(

doni1212
Jan 12th, 2009, 07:53 PM
Caroline, ;)

Marcelo.
Jan 12th, 2009, 07:57 PM
Flavia Pennetta :hearts:

Dawson.
Jan 12th, 2009, 09:54 PM
I think because if Nadia's illness, her form is going to be unpredictable at the AO. If she draws a dangerous unseeded player in round 1, she could be out of there - losing 4th round points.

A good couple of weeks in sydney and AO and Caroline should be there. Time will tell

Demska
Jan 12th, 2009, 09:55 PM
Anyone but Wozniacki

Cp6uja
Jan 12th, 2009, 11:10 PM
I think because if Nadia's illness, her form is going to be unpredictable at the AO. If she draws a dangerous unseeded player in round 1, she could be out of there - losing 4th round points.

A good couple of weeks in sydney and AO and Caroline should be there. Time will tellWith good Sydney result she will have chance to overtake Petrova without AO Semifinal... but still she will needs atleast Quarterfinal. Her potential 4th round opponents are Venus, Ana, Sveta and Vera.

Dawson.
Jan 13th, 2009, 01:58 AM
With good Sydney result she will have chance to overtake Petrova without AO Semifinal... but still she will needs atleast Quarterfinal. Her potential 4th round opponents are Venus, Ana, Sveta and Vera.

With a good draw, I think she could be a suprise semi finalist. Out of her possible 4th round oppenents, the only one I CAN'T see her beating is Venus. Vera and Sveta are both question marks . I think she would beat Ana based on current form to be honest.

If she drew Ana in round 4, then was due to face safina in the quarters (who i think will be knocked out before that stage) then I think she could make the semis for sure. Time will tell

Direwolf
Jan 13th, 2009, 02:12 AM
Fettucine Pennetta
then
Wozniacki...

SV_Fan
Jan 13th, 2009, 02:19 AM
How will Serena be Number 3?
Is it possible that Venus can get higher than number 5?

SV_Fan
Jan 13th, 2009, 02:21 AM
Please let it be bartoli.

Wiggly
Jan 13th, 2009, 02:21 AM
Go Azarenka. About time to do something in a Slam.

homogenius
Jan 13th, 2009, 02:46 AM
Off topic but Elena could finally join the top3 with a good showing at AO (and an early loss for Serena).

switz
Jan 13th, 2009, 02:47 AM
I have a funny feeling Patty will have another good result. not bias talking, just think she's got her crap out of her system.

Havok
Jan 13th, 2009, 02:50 AM
Immediately following the AO, zPetrova will make her way back inside the top 10. A few tournaments after that, Wozniaki will kick her out, and Pennetta will probably enter as well forcing Radwanska out of the top 10 alongside Petrova.

Drake1980
Jan 13th, 2009, 02:51 AM
Wozniacki!

zxcVbnm88
Jan 13th, 2009, 02:53 AM
to be realistic, petrova

Cp6uja
Jan 13th, 2009, 06:13 AM
With todays lose, Pennetta will overtake Petrova with AO QF only if Nadia lose her opening match in Melbourne.

Temperenka
Jan 13th, 2009, 06:17 AM
I think Vika. Would also like to see Cornet.

Sectumsempra
Jan 13th, 2009, 06:57 AM
Wheres "Sydnay"? Is that a new tourny?:confused:

Cp6uja
Jan 14th, 2009, 11:30 PM
WTA Ranking list after Australian Open:

1. Jelena Jankovic SRB_______ 8300 + AO
2. Dinara Safina RUS_________ 7550 + AO + Sydnay
3. Serena Williams USA_______ 7232 + AO + Sydnay
4. Elena Dementieva RUS______ 6986 + AO + Sydnay
5. Venus Williams USA________ 6044 + AO
6. Vera Zvonareva RUS________ 5740 + AO
7. Ana Ivanovic SRB__________ 5332 + AO
8. Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS___ 5010 + AO
---------------------------------------------------
9. Agnieszka Radwanska POL___ 4032 + AO
__________________________________________________ _
10. Nadia Petrova RUS________ 3601 + AO

11. Flavia Pennetta ITA______ 3120 + AO
12. Caroline Wozniacki DEN___ 3070 + AO
13. Maria Sharapova RUS______ 3030
14. Patty Schnyder SUI_______ 2929 + AO
15. Alize Cornet FRA_________ 2922 + AO
16. Vika Azarenka BLR________ 2886 + AO
17. Marion Bartoli FRA_______ 2815 + AO


Needs at least AO final:
18. Dominika Cibulkova SVK___ 2599 + AO
19. Anna Chakvetadze RUS_____ 2544 + AO
20. Katarina Srebotnik SLO___ 2404 + AO
...etc

After all "NEW TOP10" contenders lose their matches this week OP is updated, so Petrova seems like "sure bet" right now. Even if she lose her 1st Round match all other contenders needs at least AO SF to overtake her, except Pennetta which needs QF (if Nadia wins 1st round match, Flavia also needs SF).

But together with Maria, two other TOP Russians maybe also have big health problem, so in february-march we will see maybe another new free WTA TOP10 place!

Broken Racquet
Jan 14th, 2009, 11:46 PM
As much as I like Wozniacki, I think Azarenka has best chances.

hellas719
Jan 14th, 2009, 11:48 PM
Bartoli

frenchie
Jan 14th, 2009, 11:59 PM
Quite a few changes in the top 20

But these are just safe points

serenus_2k8
Jan 15th, 2009, 12:03 AM
Marion was playing great before she got injured again. If she could stay healthy she really has the game to make it.

Boomguy
Jan 15th, 2009, 01:26 AM
Flavia has the least ammount of points to defend in the AO this year and shes my pick for the top 10. Woz and Petrova got a 4th round to defend.

homogenius
Jan 15th, 2009, 02:23 AM
WTA Ranking list after Australian Open:

1. Jelena Jankovic SRB_______ 8300 + AO
2. Dinara Safina RUS_________ 7550 + AO + Sydnay
3. Serena Williams USA_______ 7232 + AO + Sydnay
4. Elena Dementieva RUS______ 6986 + AO + Sydnay
5. Venus Williams USA________ 6044 + AO
6. Vera Zvonareva RUS________ 5740 + AO
7. Ana Ivanovic SRB__________ 5332 + AO
8. Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS___ 5010 + AO
---------------------------------------------------
9. Agnieszka Radwanska POL___ 4032 + AO
__________________________________________________ _
10. Nadia Petrova RUS________ 3601 + AO

11. Flavia Pennetta ITA______ 3120 + AO
12. Caroline Wozniacki DEN___ 3070 + AO
13. Maria Sharapova RUS______ 3030
14. Patty Schnyder SUI_______ 2929 + AO
15. Alize Cornet FRA_________ 2922 + AO
16. Vika Azarenka BLR________ 2886 + AO
17. Marion Bartoli FRA_______ 2815 + AO


Needs at least AO final:
18. Dominika Cibulkova SVK___ 2599 + AO
19. Anna Chakvetadze RUS_____ 2544 + AO
20. Katarina Srebotnik SLO___ 2404 + AO
...etc



Petrova is in obviously by far best position to reach TOP10 spot instead Sharapova, but on other hand she is obviously not 100% ready to compete after big illness problems. Other contenders except at least QF at AO and Petrova early upset, needs also good result at Sydnay (Hobart) this week.

lol it looks like Dinara, Serena and Lena are after the n°1 spot.All 3 will beneficit from the fact that JJ is not playing this week and with the increased amount of points given this year they will be quite close.

Miss Amor
Jan 15th, 2009, 02:24 AM
I can tell you safely, Serena doesnt care about the ranking as much as she cares about AO, she is in Sydney to practice on plexi-cushion for the AO