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View Full Version : 5,1% : The chance of Lindsay Davenport facing Henin, Serena, Venus, Maria or Ana


danieln1
Jan 7th, 2008, 08:46 PM
This is it, I made some calculations... So, she has a great chance of not facing these players in the first round of the Australian Open! These players are the worst ones for Lindsay to play early on, Kuznetsova can also be considered... anyway, she must have a good tournament!

Dunlop1
Jan 7th, 2008, 08:51 PM
Shouldn't it be more like 3.94%

(5/127)*100

Cp6uja
Jan 7th, 2008, 08:54 PM
Shouldn't it be more like 3.94%
3.937% actualy, but what is point of this thread?

CR3WLFC
Jan 7th, 2008, 08:56 PM
so that almost 20 % of faci ng alteast one of them i hope she plays henin and double bagels her

danieln1
Jan 7th, 2008, 08:57 PM
3.937% actualy, but what is point of this thread?

Because some people want Lindsay to face Henin in the first round, which is very unlikeable to happen... And because Lindsay said she didnīt want to face some of these players

Dunlop1
Jan 7th, 2008, 08:59 PM
Assuming they all make it through, she then has aabout an 8% chance of meeting them in the 2r, if they all make it through roughly 16% chance in 3rd rd, roughly 32% in fourth round etc

Dunlop1
Jan 7th, 2008, 09:01 PM
so that almost 20 % of faci ng alteast one of them i hope she plays henin and double bagels her

no it's almost 4% chance of facing either one of those 5 players in the 1st round.

CR3WLFC
Jan 7th, 2008, 09:02 PM
so bassicly she will face one of them soner or latet

cosmooo
Jan 7th, 2008, 09:14 PM
so bassicly she will face one of them soner or latet


That is of course IF!! she won't lose against someone else before meeting one of the big five.

Camille Pin is incredibly dangerous against players that aren't ranked in the top 20, and Davenport isn't for the moment :)

Craigy
Jan 7th, 2008, 09:15 PM
Ok. :lol:

ce
Jan 7th, 2008, 09:17 PM
:weirdo:

Cp6uja
Jan 7th, 2008, 09:19 PM
She is still TOP player and her goals is not like for all other "about #50" ranked girls. She will try reach atleast QF and chances to escape all this 5 girls before QF is about 40%. For great player which in last ten years (1998-2008) only 4 times lose before slam quarterfinal (only once before R4) is same thing if she lose in R1, R2, R3, even R4. Her goals is ATLEAST quarterfinal so 1st round opponent in her case is not more important than 2nd, 3rd or 4th round opponent. Lindsay is now #52 and #54 for example is Martina Muller. Muller is tipical case where slam 1st round opponent is most important thing for her at GS and for elite players like Davenport is more important in which quarter or half of draw she will be...

ninanina19
Jan 7th, 2008, 09:20 PM
What about in the 2nd round?

gentenaire
Jan 7th, 2008, 09:47 PM
Actually, that's not entirely correct. The odds are slightly higher because of the seeding system.

There are 128 players in the draw, only 96 of those can potentially meet any of those 5 in the first round. So it's 5/96= 5.2%

There's 1 chance in 3 that Lindsay will meet a seed in the first round, not 32/127. 1/6 that she'll meet a top 16 seed in the first round, 1/12 that she'll meet a top 8 seed.

gentenaire
Jan 7th, 2008, 10:16 PM
What about in the 2nd round?

10.4%

danieln1
Jan 7th, 2008, 11:13 PM
Assuming they all make it through, she then has aabout an 8% chance of meeting them in the 2r, if they all make it through roughly 16% chance in 3rd rd, roughly 32% in fourth round etc

Wow, thanks for the math, I did 5/128!!! stupid!

Tennisation
Jan 7th, 2008, 11:16 PM
I would die if I see 1st round: (8)Venus Williams vs. Lindsay Davenport :scared:

danieln1
Jan 7th, 2008, 11:17 PM
I would die if I see 1st round: (8)Venus Williams vs. Lindsay Davenport :scared:

Please donīt even think about it would be very rough!

conrado
Jan 7th, 2008, 11:21 PM
She'll face Jankovic probably...

serenus_2k8
Jan 7th, 2008, 11:29 PM
Lol its funny how frightening an unseeded player with a game like Davenports really is :eek: :lol:

fufuqifuqishahah
Jan 7th, 2008, 11:31 PM
everyone except the original 32nd seed would be happy if they seeded Lindsay. It's kind of silly not to.

SvetaPleaseWin.
Jan 7th, 2008, 11:49 PM
I love people that calculate this sort of stuff

clearly you have less of a life than me :p

joke-kinda ;)