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View Full Version : Analysis of the Chase race ( and how could Arantxa think she can still qualify ?! )


ChrisGermany
Jul 15th, 2002, 12:07 PM
Now that Wimbledon is over and the last but 2 weeks on clay are just about to take place, some remarks ...

1 3.936 Serena Williams
2 3.136 Venus Williams (that┤s a surprising gap!)
3 2.759 Jennifer Capriati
4 2.345 Monica Seles
5 2.313 Justine Henin
6 1.994 Martina Hingis

definetly qualified

7 1.743 Amelie Mauresmo
8 1.587 Daniela Hantuchova
9 1.547 Jelena Dokic

almost qualified

10 1.400 Kim Clijsters
11 1.345 Silvia Farina

supposed to qualify

12 1.110 Anastasja Myskina
13 1.084 Anna Smashnova
14 1.030 Elena Dementiewa

Elena Dementiewa surely to qualify, it looks
like Myskina is capable of that too

15 971 Anne Kremer
17 919 Nathalie Dechy
21 853 Chanda Rubin

Thinking of how many points Chanda made the last
weeks she┤s definetly a top16 contender to watch

774 Magdalena Maleeva
675 Mary Pierce
653 Meghann Shaughnessy
594 Amanda Coetzer
565 Anna Kournikova
481 Arantxa Sanchez
0 Lindsay Davenport

What I want to discuss it that, according to this list, we have 12-13 players qualified for the Chase in some way, and up to 10 rather legendary or popular girls fighting for a top16seed. For Lindsay, coming from 0, it will be a ride to the top if she makes it, Arantxa announced to play lower events just to get in, but are there enough to equal solid performances by Pierce or Maleeva in higher-ranked events - they don┤t remain at 675 or 774, they┤ll improve too. Arantxa said that her plans are concentrated on that Chase aim but is it realistic with the hardcourts deleted from her schedule and the indoor season coming up where she never played that well and is surrounded by top players ?! I think the only way to keep her chances is to go to Asia after NY and play all those 4-5 lower tier-events - but if Seles goes that way too, how to handle that ?!

Williams Rulez
Jul 15th, 2002, 12:59 PM
Lindsay is going to have a tough time... :(

ChrisGermany
Jul 15th, 2002, 01:15 PM
WR, if you think of a Grand Slams quarterfinal worth 250 points or whatever, adding 2-3 solid hardcourt performances, Lindsay should be in the region of 700 points only due to 4-5 events at least.

Add then 2-3 indoor events this fall, that should make her a contender for the Chase definetly.

Williams Rulez
Jul 15th, 2002, 01:15 PM
lol... but starting with 0 doesn't help... makes it very daunting...

ChrisGermany
Jul 15th, 2002, 01:18 PM
Hi WR! I doubt though that she would have to qualify - isn┤t there a rule that assured Anna or Anke of a spot last year which later was refused because Anke qualified the legal way ?

Williams Rulez
Jul 15th, 2002, 01:22 PM
Really? I'm not sure about that... hopefully Lindsay can qualify legally though... ;)

TheBoiledEgg
Jul 15th, 2002, 01:23 PM
The Top 15 are guaranteed entries

the WTA reserves the right to nominate a 16th entrant as a WC.

Almost sure that Kim and Silvia will also be there barring any disasters.

mishar
Jul 15th, 2002, 01:55 PM
I feel almost positive that the top 11 will qualify (Williams through Farina) and that Lindsay will qualify (or at least get a wild card).
So it seems to me there are four open spots, more or less.
I would guess that Myskina, Dementieva, Rubin will take three of them.

By the way, Chris, I don't think Monica will play a full schedule in Asia. The Shanghai open is the same week as the Tier II in Brazil, where she is already committed to play. She might at most play one or two of the Japanese events, but I'm not sure, after she's played so much this year, she just might take the rest of the fall off. We'll see.

ChrisGermany
Jul 15th, 2002, 02:39 PM
I think Monica loved the Princess Cup in the past. I know about the scheduling problem for her with Bahia and Tokyo apart from that September 11th tragedy so I think the future is wide open between Tokyo and Bahia. Where in the world did I tell that she┤ll play ALL of the Asian events ?! :)

I think in a couple of interviews she even talked about that and made the WTA responsible because they have events in Germany and she has no chance to play in fall apart from somewhere in Asia :(

I think that we┤ve 12 assured and if you think of Myskina, Dementiewa and Rubin almost assured there is only the option of Lindsay as 16th and the race would be over.

This is what I was about to say. With Lindsay fighting to come back, this race is just a with or without Lindsay-option

fried_beans
Jul 15th, 2002, 02:41 PM
LOL

Kart
Jul 15th, 2002, 03:36 PM
Can ASV qualify for the doubles ?

ChrisGermany
Jul 15th, 2002, 03:57 PM
I think she hasn┤t even to qualify really from what she achieved with Hantuchova this year.

I think that they┤ll definetly do well in the US Open and if Arantxa participates in 1-2 more indoor events with her or even at Montreal, they are qualified - as far as I would say ;)

mishar
Jul 15th, 2002, 04:24 PM
Hi Chris!:)

My point was only that I think there would still be many events in Asia for Arantxa without meeting Monica. Monica is definitely defending her title in Brazil. I don't know if she's playing Princess Cup -- Yonex usually requires her to go, I think, though she did play at Pan Pacific this year, maybe that's enough? It would also be a lot of tennis US OPen and then two straight weeks of tennis in two different continents! So maybe she'll play Brazil and then take a week and then defend her title at the Tier III event in Tokyo.
I didn't know that she ever explicitly referred to the Germany issue in explaining her decision to play in Asia. (And I have read practically every interview with her:eek: ) But if she did, I'd love to know where. I think that was more speculation on this board.
She has played in Moscow since the stabbing, as well as exhibitions in Zurich and Austria, so I know she could play in these countries.
But she has played so much this year maybe she'll take a long break after Brazil?

As for the race, I think there are eleven assured (Williams through Farina) and then Davenport makes 12. In fact, the current top 12 players (with Testud subtracted). So then there are four openings. I think Myskina Dementieva and Rubin are reasonable because they all seem to be in good form, and they like faster courts best (as opposed to Smashnova, Schnyder, Suarez, Fernandez, Majoli)

For the 16th spot, it seems to be wide-open. Kremer and Dechy are both having solid years. I am putting early money on Eleni Danilidou. She is 23rd on the list right now -- but she played so well on grass, I think she might be able to keep it up.

Of course a brilliant run of form from Maleeva, kournikova, Pierce, Tammy or even Arantxa could send them to LA easily.

TS
Jul 15th, 2002, 04:32 PM
hey mishar Iva has won 4 indoor titles ;) hehe

Anyway, will Monica have to defend those titles in Asia? Isn't there a rule or something that says new champions have to defend their title :confused: Not sure though...

Well, anything can happen, but as has been said I can see the Top 11 making it through. Look for Myskina and Rubin to possibly join them too.

mboyle
Jul 15th, 2002, 04:41 PM
NO there is not a rule. Martina Hingis won Doha and Dubai last year for the first time, but did not participate in them this year. I think that the top 15 legal qualifiers will be:
Williams through Farina Elia, Rubin, Davenport, Myskina, Dementieva, with a wild card going to Kournikova who will be around 20 at the time.

Philip
Jul 15th, 2002, 06:18 PM
I hope Anna gets a WC :D :lick:
AND I hope she is near 20!! lol :D

Philip
Jul 15th, 2002, 06:18 PM
- Oh and i hope Arantxa makes it too ;)

Darkheart
Jul 15th, 2002, 06:40 PM
Iva's #1 Fan:

The rule is that if it's your first career title then you have to try to defend it. If you win more titles during that same year then you only have to defend one of them.

==========

Like TBE said, the top 15 qualify for sure, and the 16th spot can be a WC.

The WC will most likely go to Lindsay (if she doesn't qualify) or Anna K. (even though she may not deserve it). Or they can just give it to the #16 player in the race.

Currently the 15th ranked player (regular rankings) has 1480 points. Let's assume 1500 points will be what you will need to finish #15 in the race. Arantxa has 485 points right now. She will have to gain about 1000 points during the rest of this year.

Here's the points (includes quality points) you get for various events:

gs - 1000 (w), 600 (f), 450 (sf), 300 (qf), 200 (4th), 100 (3rd)
tier 1 - 375 (w)
tier 2 - 275 (w)
tier 3 - 200 (w)
tier 4 - 125 (w)
tier 5 - 100 (w)

She is ranked #26 right now so that's not too bad. Her seeding in tier 3's - 5's will be high, but she may not even be seeded at tier 1's or 2's. She will be fortunate if she is seeded at the U.S. Open.

Her best chance to get points will be at the U.S. Open, but she has to do good enough from now till that time so that she will be seeded so she doesn't have to face the higher seeds so soon.

So, the task of qualifying for the Championships will be very difficult for her, if not impossible. Her form this year does not suggest that she will be able to pull that off.

ChrisGermany
Jul 16th, 2002, 08:39 AM
I agree on that one.

But let me ask if those counting to 12 forget that with Farina Elia it should be 13 ( top12 including Lindsay ) that are set ; don┤t forget Farina has about 1.300 points, is a rather solid indoor player and still has one more tierII event in Poland to play on her favourite clay

conchita
Jul 16th, 2002, 09:45 AM
I hope Chanda and Kournikova and CONCHITA could make it-that would be an awesome tournament! :)

Carlitos
Jul 16th, 2002, 10:02 AM
A WC for Anna Kournikova???

Sorry to all her fans but I don't think she deserves one.I mean,she receives almost a WC for every tournament she wants to enter but this is the tournament for the 16 best players of the year!The player who receives it should have done some damage on tour during the year but not be able to enter on her own ranking!

So I would say Anne Kremer definitly deserves it if she doesn't enter on her own ranking!Her head-to-head against top 10 players this year is 6-2!!!

Benny
Jul 16th, 2002, 10:36 AM
OMG if they give Anna Krounikova another damn wildcard I will snap! Just because someone is pretty doesn't mean that they deserve it!

And she doesn't even take advantage of them. How many losses in a row is it........?

anabel
Jul 16th, 2002, 12:39 PM
Im sure Arantxa will qualify :D Thats why she is playing these clay tournaments where she will reach final at least in all of them, and then the asian hard courts season.

mishar
Jul 16th, 2002, 01:38 PM
Chris, I think you might be counting Testud and that's your mistake.

Current top 10 players (including Lindsay) plus Daniela and Farina equals 12

Then four additional spots.

i-girl
Jul 16th, 2002, 02:18 PM
hold on, please:) . can someone please explain this thread to me? when you say "chase" you mean the season ending championships, right? I wasn't aware the entries there are determined not in the regular way (according to ranking). is it determined on the basis of the year? like the ATP race? wow, I had no idea.

conchita
Jul 16th, 2002, 02:27 PM
Hey i-girl. It is determined on other points. if you go to www.sanexwta.com thenclick the rankings, there is a seperate section there where you can see what the rankings are for the end of year champs. :)

CONCHITA CAN STILL QUALIFY-by winning the USOPEN! :)

i-girl
Jul 16th, 2002, 02:43 PM
thank you! :)

ChrisGermany
Jul 16th, 2002, 03:35 PM
Mishar, I made a mistake but not that one ;)

If I count the top12 contenders of the Chase race how to count Sandrine who is at 18th so far ? ;)

I just forgot about scrolling up and having a look at my own post and that┤s all :)

═ think that with Lindsay as 12th, we┤ve 4 spots open and Rubin+Myskina+Elena, as often said, as those in for the next 3.

It will be interesting if any of those promising players like Schnyder, Dechy, Majoli use their indoor advantage, if Arantxa really changes her regular schedule just to play Asia, avoid the top10 and makes her way to the Chase and if clay courters like Smashnova repeat their spring hardcourt form and storm through.

Zl@tko
Jul 16th, 2002, 06:31 PM
Hope Iva will make it :)

AjdeNate!
Jul 17th, 2002, 12:40 AM
I think having it in LA will ensure all the top Americans to play. I mean how many season championships has Venus played?...1 or maybe 2? And Monica missed last year (obvious reasons). So, this is definately beneficial for the USA players since it's at most 4 hours travel from, say, Florida to LA.

xcrtbckhnd
Jul 17th, 2002, 01:25 AM
My dream for this year is for Iva to make it. I like her chances, as she has very little to defend and many opportunities to improve upon her performances in the Indoor hardcourt events.
I'd love to see Chanda there too, and she is playing some great tennis at the moment.
I'm a little skeptical of the consistency of ElenaD, Myskina, and Smashnova and although I like them all, I wouldn't be surprised if more than 1 of them missed out on qualifying.
Only time will tell!

Sam L
Jul 17th, 2002, 06:12 AM
Is the season ending c'ships going to be outdoors or indoors? :confused:

Becool
Jul 17th, 2002, 06:19 AM
indoors of course