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View Full Version : Jen's reign may be much longer then most think...


Adrian
Oct 20th, 2001, 12:16 PM
If Jen goes on to beat Lindsay today, she really will have a 800-1000 point over 3 and 4...Martina doesn't count at the moment, as she will continue to lose points for reasons out of her control...

I have no doubt know the Jennifer will end the year at number 1, after all her and Venus basically have nothing to defend. Lindsay has a bit to defend...

The next Challenge would be the Australian Circuit....

Lindsay..Sydney Finalist and AO semi-finalist
Martina..Sydney holder..AO finalist
Venus: Ao Semi-finalist..

So as long as Jenn puts in a reasonable performance (i.e no being dumped in the first round of AO) Then no-one will catch her their..

Straight after Lindsay has Tokyo to defend as Martina as Finalist to defend..Unlikely Venus will be play...so no catching her there either...In fact I can't see anyone getting near her until the clay season...What do you think?

saki
Oct 20th, 2001, 12:46 PM
You could be right. Neither Venus nor Lindsay are particularly good on clay either, so if anyone overtakes Jen during the clay season it'd have to be Martina or *huge stretch of the imagination* either Kim or Justine having the best clay season in WTA history. Most likely senario is probably Venus taking it over later in the year.

DavenFan
Oct 20th, 2001, 12:57 PM
You may be right with your analysis but I still think that Lindsay stands a very good chance.

Lindsay still the best contender with INDOORS this season. Lindsay still stands a best shot at AO as she usually does. By that time I think she can take that number 1 spot. With the clay season it really depends on Lindsay's like. She actually have quarters and semis in her belt for the French. and she has nothing to defend last year. Jenn could be defeated by Kim or Justine or Jelena or Martina or Monica in the quarters or fourth round.

mn73
Oct 20th, 2001, 03:49 PM
I think even before Lindsay beat Jennifer today you were a long way off the mark.

Jennifer is under tremendous pressure for the #1 ranking at the Championships in two week's time.

In the year-on-year rankings both Lindsay and Venus are about 600 points behind her. Both are playing next week in Linz while Jennifer has a week off, and with competition quite light it wouldn't be too shocking to have Lindsay against Venus in the Linz final. That means they will only be 300 points behind Jennifer with 550 points on hand for the winner of the Champs. Jennifer lost to Testud a week ago, so a first round win is far from definite and with someone like Serena Williams as a potential next-round opponent, nothing is sure for the end-of-year #1 ranking.

It is for sure a three-way race.

As a huge Jennifer fan I hope she gets it, but it will be a nailbiting week!!!

Adrian
Oct 20th, 2001, 04:09 PM
Jenn's automatic 54 points, guarantees Venus will not catch her....and lindsay is not a 4 to 5 week player...you worry to much I think..imho

Jakeev
Oct 21st, 2001, 12:19 AM
Lindsay has a huge chance to take over the top spot by the end of the year.

And as usual kudos for her assessment of Venus probably being the true number one player in the world.

A class act as usual.

Martian Stacey
Oct 21st, 2001, 01:26 AM
I think it basically will come down to the beginning of next season and how well everyone performs then, the Australian Open being the big one as the top 4 players at least made the semi finals. Jen probably won't be threatened till after Indian Wells and the Ericsson at the earliest.

Williams Rulez
Oct 21st, 2001, 03:02 AM
Venus and Linsay both have a chance to pass Jenn by the end of the year. If Venus beats Lindsay in the finals of Linz and goes on to win Munich and Jennifer loses early, Venus should be number 1. If Lindsay wins Linz and Munich, she is number 1 too.

However if none of them do that, then it'll come down to next year, where Venus has a clear advantage. She is defending less thatn either player. So as long as she does better than either player at the Aussie Open, Venus is number 1!

Tennisace
Oct 21st, 2001, 04:57 AM
Didn't Jenn play Chase last year? So she has 54 points coming off for Chase, and 36 points for a 2nd round loss at Philly.

Martina could very well be #4 at the end of the year, taking off her Philly and Chase points, and adding San Diego and Amelia Island. Martina will have 4245 points!

Venus currently has 4128 points, with no more points to come off. She needs 117 points to surpass Hingis. If she plays Linz and Chase, with a given 54 for showing at Chase and at least 1 point for Linz, 62 points is all she needs between those two events.

So a QF appearance at Linz, and anything at Chase will give Venus #3, and Martina #4!

Dawn Marie
Oct 21st, 2001, 05:12 AM
Adrian I strongly disagree with your assesment.

I think Venus will Become #1 around late February early March. Possibly right after OZ. First of all Venus WILL play an OZ warm-up. you can bank on that to happen. Venus is not going to school next year. She already said she was going to play more at the beginning of the year. ANYWAY...

What if Venus plays a warm up and at least makes her semi-final appearance at OZ? What if Hingis and Capriati as well as Lindsay only make the semi-finals? These 4 players have alot to defend at the beginning of the year. Venus has to only play and she will gain. If Venus plays well at the beginning of the year then she will imho be #1. Also the fact that she is playing Linz and Munich is a pretty much given that she wants that #1 rank. Also let us not forget about the French Open.. she has nothing to defend there either. Anyway here is what I think:

Lindsay and Venus are gonna be battling it out for the #1 ranking.

Hingis and Capriati are going to drop bigtime. In fact I bet Hingis falls to at least #10 or #9 by March. Also keep a close eye on Serena cause she will only rise in rank. I look for Serena and Venus both to rise next year. Venus #1 and Serena #3 maybe even #4 <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0">

Dawn Marie
Oct 21st, 2001, 05:32 AM
Also may I add that Jennifer is losing it.. Literally. She argues to much on the court and she is always distracted. She is not gonna hang with the pressure she hasn't for awhile now. Sure she is #1 and she deserves that spot, but imho she doesnt' have the mental faculty to sustain it. I mean imho she has a huge anger problem on the court. I really cant' see Jennifer repaeting her performance next year but I could be proven wrong.

Fingon
Oct 21st, 2001, 05:34 AM
One thing people forgets is how points are being dropped off.

The schedule is not the same as last year, some tournaments were moved and also, last year there was a week off due the Olympics.

Zurich points have already come off, but Moscow, Leipzig, Philadelphia and the Chase are still on.

If Lindsay beats Jelena she will be a little more than 300 points behind Jennifer.

In the next ranking, Linz's poinst will come off and that's already considered in that difference.

Next week, they play Linz with Moscow's points coming off (nothing for Lindsay and Jennifer).
Then, Munich with Luxembourg off (Lindsay 0, Jennifer 137).
then, no more tournaments and Philadelphia points off (Lindsay 400, Jennifer 36).

And then the Chase (both 54).

So, Lindsay might get the # 1 in Linz or Munich, but more likely will lose it again when Philadelphia and Chase's points come off.

Venus can end the year # 1 if she wins Linz and Munich, depending on Jennifer's results.

I agree Venus has a good chance at the beginning of the year as she only defends Australian Open semi-finals.

Dawn Marie
Oct 21st, 2001, 05:39 AM
Hi Ric <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0">

So Venus has a strong chance at being #1 THIS year? Well how about that? WOW! I am happy..had no idea

Go VENUS!! <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0"> Do well at Chase and Munich Vee.. cause Fearless4some rule <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0">

jomar
Oct 21st, 2001, 06:14 AM
I hope Venus would take this chance. don't just sit there and feel beautiful. you've got a mission to accomplish! <IMG SRC="smilies/talk.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/bounce.gif" border="0">

LucasArg
Oct 21st, 2001, 06:59 AM
IT WOULD BE GREAT IF VENUS BECOME N#1 AT THE END OF THE YEAR.

AND I ALSO THINK SHE HAS CHANCES, ANYWAY I AM POSITIVE SHE EILL GET IT AFTER OZ.

GO VENUS <IMG SRC="smilies/bounce.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/bounce.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/bounce.gif" border="0">

Adrian
Oct 21st, 2001, 09:08 AM
9 or 10 Dawn? <IMG SRC="smilies/berzerk.gif" border="0">

Crazy Canuck
Oct 21st, 2001, 09:20 AM
The only way Hingis will fall to number 9 or 10, will be if she starts playing left handed <IMG SRC="smilies/wink.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/biggrin.gif" border="0">

Though I do agree Dawn, that Venus and Serena should certaintly rise. I hope Serena will be able to play more nexy year.

Dawn Marie
Oct 21st, 2001, 09:33 AM
Uhm.. I say 10! lol <IMG SRC="smilies/biggrin.gif" border="0">

But I am really surprised at what Fingon wrote I had no idea that Vee could POSSIBLY become #1 THIS year. I didn't realize that we should take it into consideration about all the tourneys like Philly and Chase, that really makes it most intersting.

So all Vee has to do is win Linz and Chase?? I hope this is correct.. Oh and Jennifer has to lose early. You know this isn't entirely impossible.

Oh sheesh .. I SO wish Venus would get that top rank!!! Even for 1 week... I just want her to get it. She would really deserve it!! And when she does I am gonna cry happy tears! <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0"> Come on Venus do this <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0">

jomar
Oct 21st, 2001, 10:24 AM
Come on Vee!!!! I wanna see Dawn cry!!!!! <IMG SRC="smilies/bounce.gif" border="0">

potty
Oct 21st, 2001, 07:32 PM
Well Venus is not going to be number 1 this year now she has pulled out of Linz!!! So it is a 2 horse race to the number 1 position between Linds and Jen

Infiniti2001
Oct 21st, 2001, 09:07 PM
Tennisace, are you forgetting the 368 Moscow points Hingisova will drop on October 29??? subtract those and she has less than 3900 points. That is her true year-end total. Venus dropped out of Linz, and even if she decided to stay home during the chase championships she will still end the year at #3 while hingisova will be #4 <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/smile.gif" border="0">

thefreedesigner
Oct 21st, 2001, 09:29 PM
Er, when was the last time Jen beat a top 10, let alone Top 5 player? Ok, I guess it was Amelie at USO.

Jen's game is slightly off the boil atm (she still has moments of brilliance but does not appear to be able to maintain her focus throughout a whole match even).

I'm not casting aspersions on where she is right now in terms of ranking because I think she's definitely earned the right to be there. However, it's not really looking good for maintaining #1 long into next year.

Venus has pulled out of Linz(?) so she can really kiss it goodbye for this year, but I would be looking at Lindsay (she's gonna REALLY want a GS next season) and Venus to crowd Jen out... Jen looks like she needs a break. Or her hunger back.

JCAPfan
Oct 21st, 2001, 09:31 PM
With the withdrawal from Venus at the Linz tournament, the year-ended #1 battle is only between Jen and Lindsay:

Jennifer Capriati:
Current points: 4962

LESS points to come off for the remaining season:
- New York: 54
- Quebec City: 137
- Philadelphia: 36

ADD points (Best 17)
+ Rome: 1

Projected points: 4736

Lindsay Davenport:
Current points: 4627

LESS points to come off for the remaining season:
- New York: 54
- Philadelphia: 400

Projected points: 4173

*assuming my calculations are correct*

Providing if Lindsay wins at Linz (Actually 99% that the title will be under her belt again), she will have around 300 pts (may more??) to be added. If that's really the case, she will only be 263 pts behind Jen. With her current strong form, I think Lindsay will have a very good chance to be in the final of the Chase Championships. Lindsay is a real threat to Jen in keeping her year-ended #1.

[ October 21, 2001: Message edited by: JCAPfan ]

Oizo
Oct 22nd, 2001, 11:50 AM
Well how about this: Jenny will be #1 by the end of the year, because she has nothing to defend like Lindsay or Venus! <IMG SRC="smilies/firey.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/firey.gif" border="0">
Go on baby! Donīt let them take your crown!!!
<IMG SRC="smilies/tongue.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/tongue.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/tongue.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/tongue.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/tongue.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/tongue.gif" border="0">
I think I know who will laugh at the end! <IMG SRC="smilies/smileyshot.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/smileyshot.gif" border="0"> <IMG SRC="smilies/smileyshot.gif" border="0">

Adrian
Oct 23rd, 2001, 11:35 AM
Infiniti2001, your apparent joy at Martina's injury is quite sickening, at least we KNOW Martina is injured!!

Infiniti2001
Oct 23rd, 2001, 05:53 PM
Gee Adrian find someone else to pick on, because frankly I don't have the time or energy to banter with you <img src="eek.gif" border="0"> <img src="mad.gif" border="0"> <img src="mad.gif" border="0"> <img src="mad.gif" border="0"> <img src="mad.gif" border="0"> <img src="rolleyes.gif" border="0">

Adrian
Oct 23rd, 2001, 06:32 PM
and yet, with this lack of energy, you can still reply to each one...face it Venus is 4..she will get to 3 through anothers players's injury...case closed.

pisces
Oct 23rd, 2001, 10:13 PM
I THINK YOUR TALK ABOUT JENN.