PDA

View Full Version : Year End Number One


xan
Sep 11th, 2005, 11:25 PM
This analysis is from a post by densuprun on General Messages:
http://www.wtaworld.com/showthread.php?p=6186024#post6186024

Those interested in details may find them below. For the others, here is the summary. There are only three realistic candidates: Maria, Lindsay, Kim. I predict that Maria will stay #1 till YEC (battling for #1 in Beijing and Phila, and succeeding to ward off Lindsay) but will lose it to Kim after YEC. If this comes true, Maria will have stayed #1 for 10 weeks by the end of the year.
------------
The first opportunity for a change will be after Beijing (Sep. 26). By that time Lindsay will play Bali III and Beijing II, while Maria plays Beijing only. Lindsay will have to get 263 points more than Maria in these tournaments which is possible but I give the edge to Maria to keep #1 after Beijing. It may come down to who goes further in this tournament.

The next week Maria and Lindsay don't play but Maria loses 40 points because her Seoul's 112 points are replaced by 72 points, her current 18th result. My guess is whoever is #1 after Beijing will remain #1 on Oct.3.

On Oct.10 Lindsay loses her Filderstadt points and she doesn't play. If Lindsay earned #1 after Beijing she almost for sure loses it now back to Maria. She is likely to fall behind Kim, too.

On Oct.10-17 Maria is the only one to play and no less than Tier I in Moscow. She will put some distance between herself and #2.

Oct.31 will be the first time when Kim will have some chance to get #1 but it is unlikely. She will have to get 100 more points than Maria while playing tiers II,II,III vs Maria's II,II,I. Unlikely, considering Maria's consistent play.

Nov.7 will likely be the last chance for Lindsay. On that day Maria will lose her last year Phila points. Oct.31-Nov.6 Maria and Lindsay will fight in Phila for #1. To get it, Lindsay needs 217 points more than Maria while playing tiers I,II,II,III vs Maria's I,II,II,II. Again, possible but unlikely.

Finally, on Nov.14, after YEC, Kim should become #1 as she will have 469 point advantage over Lindsay and 722 point advantage over Maria in safe points.
----------------------------
DETAILS:
I assume that Maria plays Beijing, Filderstadt, Moscow, Phila, YEC;
Lindsay plays Bali, Beijing, Zurich, Phila, YEC;
Kim plays Luxembourg, Filderstadt, Hasselt, YEC.
If you know better please let me know.

In terms of safe points at a particular time in the future, the ratings start as MLK on Sep.12, then transform into MKL on Oct. 10, into KML on Nov.7 and into KLM on Nov.14, after YEC:

Ratings of:
Sep.12:
M: 4802
L: 4437
K: 4201

Sep.19: plus Bali'05 (Tier III)
M: 4802
L: 4437 + Bali III
K: 4201

Sep.26: minus Beijing'04, plus Beijing'05 (Tier II)
M: 4700 + Beijing II (but no less than 4772)
L: 4437 + Bali III + Beijing II
K: 4201

Oct.03: minus Seoul'04, minus Hasselt'04, plus Luxembourg'05 (Tier II)
M: 4660 + Beijing II
L: 4437 + Bali III + Beijing II
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II

Oct.10: minus Tokyo'04, minus Filderstadt'04, plus Filderstadt'05 (Tier II)
M: 4523 + Beijing II + Filderstadt II
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II
L: 4024 + Bali III + Beijing II

Oct.17: minus Moscow'04, plus Moscow'05 (Tier I)
M: 4451 + Beijing II + Filderstadt II + Moscow I (but no less than 4523)
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II
L: 3858 + Bali III + Beijing II

Oct.24: minus Zurich'04, plus Zurich'04 (Tier I)
M: 4213 + Beijing II + Filderstadt II + Moscow I
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II
L: 3858 + Bali III + Beijing II + Zurich I

Oct.31: plus Hasselt'05 (Tier III)
M: 4213 + Beijing II + Filderstadt II + Moscow I
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II + Hasselt III
L: 3858 + Bali III + Beijing II + Zurich I

Nov.07: minus Phila'04, plus Phila'05 (Tier II)
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II + Hasselt III
M: 4075 + Beijing II + Filderstadt II + Moscow I + Phila II
L: 3858 + Bali III + Beijing II + Zurich I + Phila II

Nov.14: minus YEC'04, plus YEC'05
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II + Hasselt III + YEC
L: 3644 + Bali III + Beijing II + Zurich I + Phila II + YEC
M: 3391 + Beijing II + Filderstadt II + Moscow I + Phila II + YEC

xan
Sep 11th, 2005, 11:29 PM
It looks like, unless Maria can build up a BIG lead over Kim before the YEC, that she will have to defend and kim get virtually nothing from the YEC for Maria to start the year at No 1.

But anything can happen. let's hope Maria keeps it as long as possible.

In any case everything changes again at the Australian Open

densuprun
Sep 12th, 2005, 03:52 AM
Maria would have to win everything to have a shot at #1 after YEC. Let's say she does get all the titles. Let's estimate: tier I win ~400 points, tier II win ~300, tier II final ~200, tier III win ~200. Then, after YEC (I assume Lindsay and Kim will also win everything where Maria is not playing but get only finals where she does):

K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II + Hasselt III + YEC = 4813 + YEC
M: 3391 + Beijing II + Filderstadt II + Moscow I + Phila II + YEC = 4691 + YEC
L: 3644 + Bali III + Beijing II + Zurich I + Phila II + YEC = 4644 + YEC

If this scenario does come true then Maria will keep #1 after YEC if she wins it. So, its simple: 5 straight wins and Maria is YE#1. Tough. Unfortunately.

Maria Croft
Sep 12th, 2005, 09:19 AM
I hope Maria can stay at number 1 for a while, but I wouldn't really be disappointed if she was two or three, I want her to win some big matches and tournaments, and if she wins those she will become number 1 anyway

xan
Sep 12th, 2005, 11:57 AM
I'd really like Maria to be year end no 1 - but it looks difficult.

I also wonder whether she will actually play Philadelphia, since she pulled out last year, and it's so close to the YEC. Depends how she feels, I guess.

However, all sorts of things may happen for the good. Maria is overdue a good win. This time last year most people were wondering whether Maria would even make it into the YEC!

densuprun
Sep 12th, 2005, 02:31 PM
I think it's all right that success (slam titles, YE#1) doesn't come easy to Maria. This will motivate her to improve her game. At 18 she is doing better than Serena at the same age who also won a slam at 17.

Sharapower
Sep 13th, 2005, 01:07 PM
I think it's all right that success (slam titles, YE#1) doesn't come easy to Maria. This will motivate her to improve her game. At 18 she is doing better than Serena at the same age who also won a slam at 17.

I do agree and disagree in the mean time. It's probably good that having a season like this gets her "both feet on the ground" so she knows that she still has a lot to improve. On the other hand, I am afraid she is creating herself Nemesis's (mostly Henin and Clijsters). The fact she didn't win a major is not so good but what worries me the most is that her record against the top players is so negative.

Anyway, I badly hope she will defend the YEC crown. I don't care much whether she doesn't end up #1 in the end of the year, but winning that one, yeah, it's important.

And it would also be great if she wins Filderstadt by beating Kim in the final, so she stops the losing record. 4-0 is beginning to be tough.

densuprun
Sep 13th, 2005, 01:55 PM
Well, I think Maria looks separately at the top players. I don't think either of them was able to really get into her head. They just didn't play enough against her to do that. There are only two players who have streaks of two (or more) wins in their last matches against Maria.

JHH only won on clay. Maria knows that clay is her weakest surface. She was able to beat JHH on hardcourts so I am sure she will have no doubt she can beat JHH on any surface other than clay when they meet next time.

Kim will be a real test, though. I am glad Maria will have another shot at her in Filderstadt and YEC. I would really like to see at least one win over Kim there.

As for the rest, they all have a one game streak against Maria. That's nothing. I am sure she believes she can beat any of them and will turn it around next time she plays them. She was good indoors last year and I think will be even better this year.

Maria Croft
Sep 13th, 2005, 02:15 PM
Maria has only lost 8 times this year, 7 times against former world number 1 players and her other loss against Patty was on her weakest surface clay, you could say that Maria hasn't beaten a real top player in a while but let's be honest, when should she have done it then ??

I mean Clijsters was on fire in the US open series, Maria played like crap and still pushed it to a third set

She lost to Venus who was on fire at Wimbledon, not to mention the huge pressure that was on Maria as a defending champion, may I remind everyone that she was the only champion from last year that didn't lose in the first round !! (Justine didn't play in Melbourne)

She lost to Henin twice on her worst surface, also not to mention that nobody beat Justine on clay this year

Her loss to Patty is her only loss against a player who never was number 1 before, but it was also on clay

She lost to Kim in Miami, windy conditions, Maria didn't have enough experience to win at that time

Davenport, although she lost 0 and 0 she has a 2-1 record over her and was in the Miami final only two weeks later

Serena, what can I say, should have won this match but she didn't, shit happens

That's it, except Serena and Patty there was really no way she could have won these matches, and those were her only opportunities this year to beat top players, in other matches she has beaten Lindsay and Nadia twice and Molik who (let's not forget) was really good at that time

I see some bad luck (Davenport, Henin twice in the QF), players who were obviously better then the rest of the world when they beat Maria (Venus and Clijsters) and lack of experience (Patty and the first time she played Clijsters)

Maria will have her time soon enough!

Sharapower
Sep 13th, 2005, 02:29 PM
Well everything is relative, for sure. Maybe my expectations kinda blind me. After all for a slump year she's still the #1 in the world and the 3rd in the race for championships.:D

Anyway, needless to say, I'm pissed that she didn't win any GS this year, didn't even reach a final while Pierce reached two finals :( !

Hopefully, next year will be THE year when she's going to become the unquestionnable leader on the women's tour. I believe she has the potential for that but there has been sooo many examples of unfulfilled potentials in the past that her mitigated results tend to worry me.

Maria Croft
Sep 13th, 2005, 02:43 PM
Well everything is relative, for sure. Maybe my expectations kinda blind me. After all for a slump year she's still the #1 in the world and the 3rd in the race for championships.:D

Anyway, needless to say, I'm pissed that she didn't win any GS this year, didn't even reach a final while Pierce reached two finals :( !

Hopefully, next year will be THE year when she's going to become the unquestionnable leader on the women's tour. I believe she has the potential for that but there has been sooo many examples of unfulfilled potentials in the past that her mitigated results tend to worry me.


yeah Pierce reached two finals but didn't stand a change against Kim and Justine

True, Maria also lost to Justine in two easy sets but it's her weakest surface and Mary's best surface and she lost 1 and 1, although I must say it would have been a different match if she wasn't so nervous

and her second final, 3 and 1 not much better, Sharapova lost in a three set match

a slump year ?? you must be joking, she is the first Russian world number 1 player !! that is now part of history, Maria from last year got only to the third round of the Australian open and US open, now she made two SF !! not even mentioning that Maria played with pain in Melbourne and barely had any match practice going into the US open, and she made the Wimbledon SF as an 18 year old defending champion !! I think it's obvious that Maria probably wouldn't have lost in the QF in Roland Garros if she wouldn't have had to play Justine, but that’s how it goes, but I'm not finished, last year Maria only made one clay QF, this year she made three, one was even a SF !! and I'm still not finished, Maria lost to all eventual grand slam winners, still disappointing but that doesn't change the fact that she only lost to the best, AND Maria won her first Tier 1 and Tier 2 this year and is currently the number 1 player of the world and she won several awards for her tennis......

phew !! :p that was a lot

I can understand that everyone was hoping that she would have beaten a top player or two more and would have won a grand slam (just like me lol), but it's not the end of the world that she didn't, this may sound silly but she is 'only' 18, her year was awesome and still there is room for so much more, I can't wait to see how much better she will get !!

Sharapower
Sep 13th, 2005, 02:52 PM
(...) that doesn't change the fact that she only lost to the best

That's the point which bugs me actually. I won't feel good until I can say she IS the best. I'm not a patient guy :p . A great YEC performance will make me feel better I guess.

And to be quite honest, I just can't stand it when all the haters in GM have arguments to bash Maria to death.

Maria Croft
Sep 13th, 2005, 02:58 PM
That's the point which bugs me actually. I won't feel good until I can say she IS the best. I'm not a patient guy :p . A great YEC performance will make me feel better I guess.

And to be quite honest, I just can't stand it when all the haters in GM have arguments to bash Maria to death.


lol, you know I understand that, I also want Maria to be the best but it doesn't happen that quickly, and even if she did beat the top players the hate wouldn't stop, threads about her first pumps, c'mons, grunting, father, looks, etc would still be there, and of course threads about why her winning doesn't mean anything or threads about she said this or that, it's never ending

!!!--Duiz™--!!!
Sep 20th, 2005, 06:09 AM
nice stuff....

densuprun
Sep 20th, 2005, 07:42 AM
after Lindsay withdraw Maria is guaranteed to stay at #1 till Oct.10 when Kim still has some purely mathematical chances to get the top spot. Maria will probably squash them in Beijing.

!!!--Duiz™--!!!
Sep 20th, 2005, 06:58 PM
Good luck Maria!

tennisjunky
Sep 22nd, 2005, 02:38 PM
i'm so proud of maria no matter what people say. and i wish she could end the year number one and since there is still small hope i will believe in her.

she will win china and defend her year end points, i guarentee it.

densuprun
Sep 24th, 2005, 07:35 PM
UPDATE AFTER BEIJING.

Those interested in details may find them below. For the others, here is the summary. There are only three realistic candidates: Maria, Lindsay, Kim. I predict that Maria will stay #1 till YEC but will lose it to Kim after YEC. We know the schedule for the three contenders. We also know their average rating points in tournaments of different tiers over the last 52 weeks. This allows us to make rating projections till the end of the year.

The first mathematical opportunity for a change on top will be after Filderstadt (Oct.10) but it is highly unlikely. Kim will have to get 518 more points than Maria in two tier II versus Maria's one tier II. Theoretically it is possible but would require two wins from Kim and a withdrawal or a first round loss from Maria.

On Oct.10-17 Maria is the only one to play and no less than Tier I in Moscow. She is likely to put some distance between herself and #2.

Oct.31 will be the first time when Kim will have some realistic chances to get #1. She will have to get 208 more points than Maria while playing tiers II,II,III vs Maria's II and I.

Lindsay may have a chance to take #1 after Philly on Nov.7 but only if she wins the tier I in Zurich before that. Oct.31-Nov.6 Maria and Lindsay will fight in Phila for #1. To get it, Lindsay needs 143 points more than Maria while playing tiers I and II vs Maria's I,II,II.

Finally, on Nov.14, after YEC, Kim should become #1 as at the start of YEC Kim is projected to have the 379 point advantage over Lindsay in safe points and the 589 point advantage over Maria. Unless Kim completely flops at YEC, she should become YE#1.
------------------------
Here are the results of the calculations with details coming after this list of ratings. The projected ratings are:

Sep.26:
M: 4808
L: 4619
K: 4201

Oct.03: minus Seoul'04, minus Hasselt'04, plus Luxembourg'05 (Tier II)
M: 4768
L: 4619
K: 4336

Oct.10: minus Tokyo'04, minus Filderstadt'04, plus Filderstadt'05 (Tier II)
M: 4781
K: 4559
L: 4206

Oct.17: minus Moscow'04, plus Moscow'05 (Tier I)
M: 4968
K: 4559
L: 4040

Oct.24: minus Zurich'04, plus Zurich'04 (Tier I)
M: 4730
K: 4559
L: 4254

Oct.31: plus Hasselt'05 (Tier III)
M: 4730
K: 4647
L: 4254

Nov.07: minus Phila'04, plus Phila'05 (Tier II)
M: 4742
K: 4647
L: 4482

Nov.14: minus YEC'04, plus YEC'05
K: 4647 + YEC
L: 4268 + YEC
M: 4058 + YEC
-----------------------------------------------------------
DETAILS:
I assume that Maria plays Beijing, Filderstadt, Moscow, Phila, YEC;
Lindsay plays Bali, Beijing, Zurich, Phila, YEC;
Kim plays Luxembourg, Filderstadt, Hasselt, YEC.
If you know better please let me know.

Ratings of:
Sep.26:
M: 4808
L: 4619
K: 4201

Oct.03: minus Seoul'04, minus Hasselt'04, plus Luxembourg'05 (Tier II)
M: 4768
L: 4619
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II

Oct.10: minus Tokyo'04, minus Filderstadt'04, plus Filderstadt'05 (Tier II)
M: 4631 + Filderstadt II
L: 4206
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II

Oct.17: minus Moscow'04, plus Moscow'05 (Tier I)
M: 4559 + Filderstadt II + Moscow I (but no less than 4631)
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II
L: 4040

Oct.24: minus Zurich'04, plus Zurich'04 (Tier I)
M: 4321 + Filderstadt II + Moscow I
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II
L: 4040 + Zurich I

Oct.31: plus Hasselt'05 (Tier III)
M: 4321 + Filderstadt II + Moscow I
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II + Hasselt III
L: 4040 + Zurich I

Nov.07: minus Phila'04, plus Phila'05 (Tier II)
M: 4183 + Filderstadt II + Moscow I + Phila II
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II + Hasselt III
L: 4040 + Zurich I + Phila II

Nov.14: minus YEC'04, plus YEC'05
K: 4113 + Luxembourg II + Filderstadt II + Hasselt III + YEC
L: 3826 + Zurich I + Phila II + YEC
M: 3499 + Filderstadt II + Moscow I + Phila II + YEC
---------------------------------

Maria averages 259 in her 6 tiers I over the last 52 weeks
Maria averages 150 in her 4 tiers II over the last 52 weeks
Lindsay averages 214 in her 4 tiers I over the last 52 weeks.
Lindsay averages 228 in her 6 tiers II over the last 52 weeks.
Kim averages 223 in her 5 tiers II over the last 52 weeks
Kim averages 88 in her 1 tier III over the last 52 weeks

Using these numbers, one can make rating projections for the rest of the year, as shown in the first half of the post.

xan
Sep 24th, 2005, 11:19 PM
I presume Maria will still hope to play Moscow and the YEC - but will she be able to play Filderstadt and Philadelphia after her injury problems?

She virtually has to win the YEC again to keep the No 1 ranking. So its looking less likely :(

Maria Croft
Sep 25th, 2005, 08:01 PM
I presume Maria will still hope to play Moscow and the YEC - but will she be able to play Filderstadt and Philadelphia after her injury problems?

She virtually has to win the YEC again to keep the No 1 ranking. So its looking less likely :(


I don't care about her ranking now, she's already number 1, right now I only want to see her recovered

Andy.
Sep 25th, 2005, 10:16 PM
She is only 18 she has plenty more years to become number 1 and be dominant right now im just worried about how she is going to recover from this ongoing problem.

!!!--Duiz™--!!!
Sep 27th, 2005, 06:56 AM
she has many many years to come... if she doesn't make it right now.. it is OK... at least MAria has proven she has done the best over the period of a year...

xan
Sep 29th, 2005, 09:28 PM
Things look bleaker for Maria keeping No 1, with Lindsay moving in to take her place at Filderstadt. This is the second time that Davenport has made a tricky move to try to recapture No 1 spot from Maria. She did the same at New Haven, suddenly taking a wild card when an opportunity to sneak the No 1 spot presented itself.

Lindsay is only 200 points behind Maria now. So she could take advantage of marias injury by taking No 1 back with a good showing at Filderstadt. At the moment Lindsay is the only threat to Maria's No 1. Kim is still over 600 points behind.

Shoulderpova
Sep 30th, 2005, 02:05 AM
Davenport is the defending champion at Filderstadt so she has points to defend. Any idea how far she needs to go to overtake Masha? :confused:

Portobello
Oct 1st, 2005, 10:03 AM
Davenport is the defending champion at Filderstadt so she has points to defend. Any idea how far she needs to go to overtake Masha? :confused:

no idea :p :p

but actually kim's great change to take maria's top spot anyway :o

so it's not really big deal that Linds'll take it at Filderstadt ;)


the most important thing's maria health,i hope her injury's not serious n she'll bounce back n play superb tennis at kremlin cup n year end :hug:

xan
Oct 1st, 2005, 12:04 PM
Yes. it looks like Kim is the greater danger at Filderstadt now, because Davenport takes a big hit on points from last year, even if she wins Filderstadt she can't take No 1.

If kim wins Tier 2??? Luxemburg and filderstadt, she could well take No 1. Then it would depend on whether maria can play Moscow.

Maria Croft
Oct 1st, 2005, 12:38 PM
Maria will stay at number one for at least one more week then

Portobello
Oct 2nd, 2005, 02:34 PM
Davenport is the defending champion at Filderstadt so she has points to defend. Any idea how far she needs to go to overtake Masha? :confused:

wow yr new avvie,it's so lovely :p :p

xan
Oct 7th, 2005, 11:46 PM
Well Kim's threat to steal Masha's no 1 this week has been ended by the timely intervention of Elena Dementieva! Elena's been Maria's little helper on two occasions now! Davenport can't take the No 1 spot this week even if she wins Filderstadt. So Maria will go into Moscow as World No 1 next week.

Once again it shows Maria's all-surface consistency since Kim's points are nearly all from the hard courts.

Maria Croft
Oct 8th, 2005, 09:56 AM
So that means that Maria will also be number one after Moscow because Davenport and Clijsters aren't playing there