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View Full Version : Serena vs. Maria at 17: the stats


maximus82
Nov 20th, 2004, 08:51 PM
I'm a Maria fan (and not that keen on Serena), but thought I'd do a bit of digging to see what the facts have to say about this topic...

Serena Williams:
September 26, 1998 - September 26, 1999

(world ranks of opponents in parenthesis)

Filderstadt: bt Novotna(3), ls in qf to Testud(18)
Sydney: ls in 2r to Graf (10)
Aus Open: ls in 3r to Testud (15)
Paris: won tier II title, beating Tauziat (9), Mauresmo (18), Halard-Decugis (21)
Indian Wells: won tier 1 title, beating Davenport (2), Graf (7), Pierce (8), and Testud (14)
Miami: bt Seles(3), Coetzer(9), Hingis(1), before ls in finals to Venus Williams(6)
Italian Open: bt Spirlea (17), loss in qf to Hingis(1)
Berlin: ls in qf to ASV(7)
French Open: ls in 3r to Fernandez(37)
L.A.: won tier II title beating Hingis(1), ASV(8), and Schnyder(19)
US Open: won Grand Slam beating Hingis(1), Davenport(2), Seles(4), and Martinez(17)

stats: won 1 GS, 1 tier I, 2 tier II...reached 1 other final (tier I) and 3 qfs (2 tier I, 1 tier II)
GS Stats: 1 win, 2 third rounds, one did-not-play

Maria Sharapova:
April 19, 2004 - April 19, 2004

Berlin: ls in r3 to Capriati(8)
Rome: bt Dementieva(10), ls in 3r to Farina Elia(16)
French Open: bt Zvonareva(13), ls in QF to Suarez(14)
Birmingham: won tier III title, bt Schnyder(20)
Wimbledon: won GS title, bt Davenport(5), S. Williams (10), and Sugiyama(12)
San Diego: ls in qf to Myskina(5)
Montreal: ls in 2r to Zvonareva(14)
New Haven: ls in 2r to Washington(81)
US Open: ls in 3rd to Pierce(29)
Beijing: ls in SF to Kuznetsova(5)
Seoul: won tier III title (highest ranked opponent- 81st Stosur)
Tokyo: won tier III title (highest ranked opponent- 61st Washington)
Zurich: bt V Williams(11) and Dementieva(5), ls in F to Molik (20)
Philadelphia: bt Molik(13), retired to Mauresmo(1) in SF
TourChamps: won Tier I+ title, bt Myskina(3), Kuznetsova(4), S Williams(8), and Zvonareva(11)

stats: won 1 GS, 1 tier I+, 3 tier III...reached 1 other final (tier I), 2 sf (tier IIs), and 2 qf (GS and tier I)
GS stats: 1 win, 1 QF, 1 3r, 1 yet to be played.

And, mostly likely will play Sydney, Aus Open, Tokyo, Miami/Indian Wells before turning 18.

maximus82
Nov 20th, 2004, 08:57 PM
Personally, I think that Serena gets the edge as of now. The big thing that sways it her way (in my mind) is that she had such high success against the top players AND both won comprable titles (serena's miami/indian wells run matches up favorably against masha's YEC)...both have a slam and had success at the lower tiers.

HOWEVER, if Masha can go on a tear at the Aus Open and or Miami/Indian Wells next year, then the scales have to go in her favor. Serena's most impressive accomplishment came at the tail end of her 17th year...perhaps Masha can follow suit by capturing another biggie before 18.

(this is not to compare the two's games or 'rena's later success...Masha (or, anybody, really) will have to be incredible to match Serena's year+ of domination)

bandabou
Nov 20th, 2004, 09:00 PM
It´s no contest really....Maria at 17 is good, but Serena at 17 was SCARY!

bandabou
Nov 20th, 2004, 09:06 PM
What´s that supposed to mean, alpha kenny?

vertigo
Nov 20th, 2004, 09:10 PM
:lol: Alpha do you not realise that CLEARLY statistics are facts!? Thank you maximus.

mboyle
Nov 20th, 2004, 10:18 PM
It´s no contest really....Maria at 17 is good, but Serena at 17 was SCARY!No, Serena wasn't scary until the summer, at 17 9 months. Maria hasn't reached that age yet. If you compare Serena until 17 and 7 with Maria until 17 and 7, Maria is much better.

Knizzle
Nov 20th, 2004, 10:32 PM
No, Serena wasn't scary until the summer, at 17 9 months. Maria hasn't reached that age yet. If you compare Serena until 17 and 7 with Maria until 17 and 7, Maria is much better.
Serena won 16 matches in a row from Paris through Miami F, that's Feb-March so that makes your statement about her not being "scary" until the summer completely false.

Lemonskin.
Nov 20th, 2004, 10:42 PM
I don' think it matters who had slightly better results or whatever, the facts are that they were both phenomenal players at 17. Good work by them! :bigclap:

G1Player2
Nov 20th, 2004, 10:47 PM
Serena won 16 matches in a row from Paris through Miami F, that's Feb-March so that makes your statement about her not being "scary" until the summer completely false.

:worship: :worship: :worship: :worship: :worship:

SJW
Nov 20th, 2004, 11:28 PM
Serena beat like twice as many top 10 players lol

but when you have to break it down into MONTHS to see who was better...well erm, if Sharapova can almost hold her own against the greatest player of this generation, then she's doing pretty well.

WorldWar24
Nov 20th, 2004, 11:39 PM
Not trying to take anything away from Serena, I still believe she's best active player, and she is the best of her generation, but we need to take into consideration the fact that the tour is much more competitive now than when Serena was 17. And Serena was playing a new style of tennis that most players at the time never really got used to, while Sharapova is perfecting that style when most players are used to nowadays

Billabong
Nov 20th, 2004, 11:45 PM
We can compare Hingis at 17 and Maria at 17 now:yeah: :lol:

TennisTutor
Nov 21st, 2004, 12:02 AM
No, Serena wasn't scary until the summer, at 17 9 months. Maria hasn't reached that age yet. If you compare Serena until 17 and 7 with Maria until 17 and 7, Maria is much better.

I would have to agree with this 100%
Serena didn't peak until much later.

LeRoy.
Nov 21st, 2004, 12:27 AM
Maria's stats are far more impressive than Serena's AT 17 years 7 months. If you can't see that than you are living in denial.

fammmmedspin
Nov 21st, 2004, 12:47 AM
Personally, I think that Serena gets the edge as of now. The big thing that sways it her way (in my mind) is that she had such high success against the top players AND both won comprable titles (serena's miami/indian wells run matches up favorably against masha's YEC)...both have a slam and had success at the lower tiers.

HOWEVER, if Masha can go on a tear at the Aus Open and or Miami/Indian Wells next year, then the scales have to go in her favor. Serena's most impressive accomplishment came at the tail end of her 17th year...perhaps Masha can follow suit by capturing another biggie before 18.

(this is not to compare the two's games or 'rena's later success...Masha (or, anybody, really) will have to be incredible to match Serena's year+ of domination)
Though Masha can only play who turns up in the matches so the comparison of rankings of players beaten - especially in her GS - isn't that indicative of how well she was playing but how well some top seeds were not playing. Masha couldn't beat number 1 and 2 players like Serena did very easily either as for much of her year they were not playing.

SerenaSlam
Nov 21st, 2004, 12:49 AM
Maria's stats are far more impressive than Serena's AT 17 years 7 months. If you can't see that than you are living in denial.
i think at 17 Maria's game was more rounded, and for serena to be so inconsistent and still win the way she won. i mean look at the usopen, she was on the brink of losses i believe in the 2nd round the quarters and the semis and pulled those out in 3 sets and won the final against number 1, who had won i believe wimbledon and aussie that year in straight sets. it was amazing stuff from serena. granted Maria has done some great things at 17 as well, i just think that Serena showed her game and some during those times.

maximus82
Nov 21st, 2004, 05:43 AM
Some more statistics:

Serena:
Top 10 wins: 13
Top 20 wins: 19
Avg rank lost to: 11.75
(taking out the biggest outlier [Fernandez]: 9.5)

Maria Sharapova:
Top 10 wins: 8
Top 20 wins: 13
Avg rank lost to: 17.64
(taking out the biggest outlier [mashona washington]: 12.44)

Things to notice:
All of these stats do weigh in favor of Serena at 17, at present. But, as noted, Maria still has a good 4 months of play in which she could pick up more top 10/20 wins. Her average rank lost to isn't likely to change a whole lot...the fact that, one bad loss aside, Serena usually only lost to top 10ers when 17 is quite astounding (perhaps second only to Hingis's even more ridiculous record). But it's perhaps worth noting that for most of the year Maria didn't have the chance to play (and gain wins against) two players who were in the top five (Henin, Clijsters).

bandabou
Nov 21st, 2004, 10:02 AM
We´ll see what happens next year.....hopefully everybody will be in peak health and then we´re gonna see how good Maria REALLY is.

Still don´t think it´s fair to compare them because their paths were totally different AND Serena has started to play later than Maria did.

©@®eLess
Nov 21st, 2004, 11:39 AM
it is better to start later, if junior competitions are till 18 years of age, then it has to be respected. It is ridiculous that they start playing pro with 14 when their body is not formed yet completely. There are more and more injuries just because of that, and at some point they gonna look like gymnasists who finish their career with barely 20, and then spend rest of their life asking themselves why did they start it in first place. Name one player that hasn't been off-court for longer then 3 months due to injury or something mental. Almost everyone. And it happens way too often

brunof
Nov 21st, 2004, 07:22 PM
We can compare Hingis at 17 and Maria at 17 now:yeah: :lol:
Makes their accomplishments at 17 seem far less amazing doesn't it? :lol: :sad:

bandabou
Nov 21st, 2004, 07:46 PM
:lol: BOTH against Hingis at 17 is no contest.....:lol:

VS Fan
Nov 21st, 2004, 10:33 PM
The rules about how many tourneys one may play before age 17 changed greatly before either Serena or Maria began playing. Jennifer, Monica, Chrissy, Tracy and Martina were playing full time on the tour at age 14. You cannot do that anymore, thus the disparity.

The rules were changed shortly after Jennifer had her meltdown the protect kids that found the pressure too great to bear.

Geisha
Nov 21st, 2004, 11:16 PM
No, Serena wasn't scary until the summer, at 17 9 months. Maria hasn't reached that age yet. If you compare Serena until 17 and 7 with Maria until 17 and 7, Maria is much better.

That's not what this topic is about. That's irrelevant (sp). The topic is WHO WAS BETTER AT 17? Not 17 yrs 7 months, who was better at 17. Serena had an equivalent 1999 than Maria did this year. She went on a 16 match-winning streak, defeated Venus, Hingis, Davenport (year end top 3), not to mention Julie Halard-Decugis, Nathalie Tauziat, Graf, etc.

Maria also had a very good 2004. But, she was crap until the French Open. At Wimbledon, she beat Lindsay and Serena. Then she was crap until Korean Open- a Tier 4 or 5. And she won Japan- a tier 3 or something like that. She did okay the rest of the year, but lost at mostly every tournament, and to top players. Serena defeated most of the top players she played.

Not to mention how good Serena was at 16- defeated Monica, Mary, Lindsay, Irina in her first three mainDRAW tournaments.

bandabou
Nov 21st, 2004, 11:54 PM
I just wonder how Serena´s stats would have looked if she had played tier III´s or IV´s with no top 100 opponents....

BeautifulGirl
Nov 22nd, 2004, 12:26 AM
I just wonder how Serena´s stats would have looked if she had played tier III´s or IV´s with no top 100 opponents....

Probably worst considering Serena wouldn't get any of those "wildcard" favors and has to play many qualifying rounds.

:wavey:

maximus82
Nov 22nd, 2004, 02:58 AM
That's not what this topic is about. That's irrelevant (sp). The topic is WHO WAS BETTER AT 17? Not 17 yrs 7 months, who was better at 17. Serena had an equivalent 1999 than Maria did this year. She went on a 16 match-winning streak, defeated Venus, Hingis, Davenport (year end top 3), not to mention Julie Halard-Decugis, Nathalie Tauziat, Graf, etc.

Maria also had a very good 2004. But, she was crap until the French Open. At Wimbledon, she beat Lindsay and Serena. Then she was crap until Korean Open- a Tier 4 or 5. And she won Japan- a tier 3 or something like that. She did okay the rest of the year, but lost at mostly every tournament, and to top players. Serena defeated most of the top players she played.

Not to mention how good Serena was at 16- defeated Monica, Mary, Lindsay, Irina in her first three mainDRAW tournaments.

To nitpick: Maria only had 2 tournaments before the French Open while 17. In comparison, Serena did just as poorly in her first tournies at 17 (loss to Testud in 3rd round, loss to Graf in 2nd round) *and* did worse at her tourny, also a slam, losing in the 3rd round to Testud (compared to Maria's QF).

Maria still has a good 4 months of play to boost her stats as a 17 year old. If she, for instance, won the Aus Open, one would have to concede that she was a better 17 year old than Serena. If she bombs those months, Serena's edge would only build up.

Tochio
Nov 22nd, 2004, 03:24 AM
thx. For the stats.
For me Serena is a little bit better. ^^