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View Full Version : PREDICTING TOP 10 2002 ANALYSIS : please read it was a lot of work.


Robbie.
Dec 18th, 2001, 01:32 AM
Following up on Volcana's post of who people thought most likely to fall out of the top 10, i have studied the top 10's of each year since 1996 to establish a pattern of their make-up, and who by the numbers is most likely to fill the end of year rankings for 2002. Below are the top 10's of each year since 1996. Below them lies a series of precedents set by these examples.

1996: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1. Steffi Graf (1)<br />2. Monica Seles (1)<br />2. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (3)<br />3. Jana Novotna (11)<br />4. Martina Hingis (16)<br />5. Conchita Martinez (2)<br />6. Anke Huber (10)<br />7. Iva Majoli (9)<br />8. Kimiko Date (4)<br />9. Lindsay Davenport (12)<br />10. Barbara Paulus (23)

1997: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1. Martina Hingis(1)<br />2. Jana Novotna(3)<br />3. Lindsay Davenport (9)<br />4. Amanda Coetzer(17)<br />5. Monica Seles (2)<br />6. Iva Majoli(7)<br />7. Mary Pierce (20)<br />8. Irina Spirlea(11)<br />9. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (2)<br />10. Mary Joe fernandez (14)

1998: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1.Lindsay Davenport (3)<br />2.Martina Hingis (1)<br />3. Jana Novotna (2)<br />4. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario(9)<br />5. Venus Williams(22)<br />6. Monica Seles(5)<br />7. Mary Pierce (7)<br />8. Conchita Martinez (12)<br />9. Steffi Graf (28)<br />10. Nathalie Tauziat(11)

1999: Year End (previous year in Brackets)<br />1.Martina Hingis(2)<br />2.Lindsay Davenport(1)<br />3. Venus Williams(5)<br />4. Serena Williams(20)<br />5. Mary Pierce(7)<br />6. Monica Seles(5)<br />7. Nathalie Tauziat(10)<br />8. Barbara Schett (23)<br />9. Julie Harlard Decugis (22)<br />10. Amelie Muresmo (29)

2000(previous year in Brackets)<br />1.Martina Hingis(1)<br />2.Lindsay Davenport(2)<br />3. Venus Williams(3)<br />4. Monica Seles (6)<br />5. Conchita Martinez (15)<br />6. Serena Williams (4)<br />7. Mary Pierce (5)<br />8. Anna Kournikova (12)<br />9. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (17)<br />10. Nathalie Tauziat (7)

2001 (previous year in brackets)<br />1. Lindsay Davenport (2)<br />2. Jennifer Capriati (14)<br />3. Venus Williams (3)<br />4. Martina Hingis (1)<br />5. Kim Clijsters (18)<br />6. Serena Williams (6)<br />7. Justine Henin (48)<br />8. Jelena Dokic (26)<br />9. Amelie Mauresmo (16)<br />10. Monica Seles (4)

PRECEDENTS

1. Two Top 5 players will fall out of top 5<br />2. 1 new top five entry will be ranked within the top 14<br />3. One new top 5 entry will be ranked between 15-25.<br />4. The no.8 player will fall from the top ten to be replaced by a player ranked between 11-30<br />5. The No.10 position will usually be filled by a veteran.<br />6. The No.6 position will be filled by a current top 10 member<br />7. Atleast 3 (usually 4) players will leave the top 10, atleast 1 player will return to the top 10 and there will be atleast 1 new top 10 player.

these trends belie wahat many have been saying about this top 10 being pretty solid and most don't think it will change very much. I tend to agree but history is often a great pointer to the future and we must respect it. Paying credence to this trend I cautiously predict the following and how they comply with the pattern.

1 (3). Venus Williams <br />2 (4). Martina Hingis <br />3 (1). Lindsay Davenport<br />4 (6). Serena Williams (new top 5, from top 14)<br />5 (15). Elena Dementieva (new top 5, from 15-25)<br />6 (2). Jennifer Capriati (falling from top 5)<br />7 (5). Kim Clijsters (current top 10 member, falls from top 5)<br />8 (12). Meghann Shaughnessy (new top 10 player)<br />9 (10). Monica Seles <br />10 (19). Amanda Coetzer (veteran, returning member)

It may not seem to realsitic, but it is true to history which is always a good pointer.

try making your own top 10's based on thses rules

[ December 17, 2001: Message edited by: tennisaddict. ]

[ December 17, 2001: Message edited by: tennisaddict. ]</p>

QueenV
Dec 18th, 2001, 02:39 AM
This was kinda hard because I think most will return, but here it goes.

1. Venus Williams<br /> 2. Lindsay Davenport<br /> 3. Martina Hingis<br /> 4. Serena Williams (New Top 5 from Top 14)<br /> 5. Iroda Tulyagonova (New Top 5 from 15-25)<br /> 6. Monica Seles (Current Top 10)<br /> 7. Kim Clijsters (Fell from Top 5)<br /> 8. Elena Dementieva (New top 10 from 11-30)<br /> 9. Justine Henin<br />10. Sandrine Testud (Veteran)

<br />3 players that fell out of the top 10.

Jennifer Capriati<br />Jelena Dokic<br />Amelie Mauresmo

[ December 17, 2001: Message edited by: QueenV ]</p>

Volcana
Dec 18th, 2001, 02:48 AM
tennisaddict - Most impressive! Especially the Trendex. Tomorrow (when I'm rested), I'll try to do predictions based on your stuff. You found a lot of subtleties. Some may prove to be excellent predictors.

maximus82
Dec 18th, 2001, 02:59 AM
New to posting on the board (although I've been reading for months), thought this post is cool and deserves a resposne!

This was rather difficult...this isn't what I would have normally guessed (particularly the Coetzer ranking...but the 15-25 range is rather weak IMO). So shift everybody else up and add a Mauresmo at 10th place. Also think that Clijsters may suprise us and end ranked ahead of Serena.

1. Davenport (Win Aus and USO)<br />2. Seles (Final of AUS and win roland garros!)<br />3. Venus (Win Wimbledon)<br />4. Serena<br />5. Coetzer<br />6. Clijsters<br />7. Capriati<br />8. Shaughnessy<br />9. Henin<br />10. Testud

-maximus82

edited because I made an error in ranking!

[ December 17, 2001: Message edited by: maximus82 ]</p>

Randy H
Dec 18th, 2001, 04:58 AM
Really interesting post, thanks for the analysis! <img src="smile.gif" border="0"> Based on the past statistics, my predictions will be:

1. Venus Williams<br />2. Lindsay Davenport<br />3. Serena Williams (one new from top 14)<br />4. Kim Clijsters<br />5. Elena Dementieva (one new from 15-25)<br />6. Martina Hingis (current top 10, falls from top 5)<br />7. Jennifer Capriati (falls from top 5)<br />8. Monica Seles<br />9. Daniela Hantuchova (new top 10 - and perhaps maybe a bit of wishful thinking <img src="wink.gif" border="0"> )<br />10.Sandrine Testud (veteran)

I don't have a returning top 10 here, but I will say the closest to that is Testud. She has been top 10 before, but never finished the year top 10.

3 to fall from top 10: Henin, Dokic, Mauresmo

DavenFan
Dec 18th, 2001, 04:59 AM
1 (1). Lindsay Davenport<br />2 (3). Venus Williams <br />3 (4). Martina Hingis<br />4 (10). Monica Seles(new top 5, from top 14)<br />5 (?). Iroda Tulyaganova (new top 5, from 15-25)<br />6 (2). Jennifer Capriati (falling from top 5)<br />7 (5). Kim Clijsters (current top 10 member, falls from top 5)<br />8 (12). Meghann Shaughnessy (new top 10 player)<br />9 (10). Serena Williams <br />10 (?). Sandrine Testud(veteran, returning member)

<br />AO: Lindsay<br />RG: Monica<br />WB: Lindsay<br />US: Martina or Venus

Sam L
Dec 18th, 2001, 09:49 AM
Thanks for compiling and posting this tennisaddict <img src="biggrin.gif" border="0"> I agree pretty much with your list except two things:

1/. I don't think Demetieva will be ranked that high, maybe just low top ten.

2/. I don't think Justine Henin will drop out of the top ten.

Well's there's always an exception to these precedents, so new precedents can take place <img src="wink.gif" border="0">

thefreedesigner
Dec 18th, 2001, 11:32 AM
tennisaddict, thanks for doing this!!!! Y'know *cough* I used to do the same kind of analysis with music charts when I was (much) younger, and I think the trends you spotted are proven.

No-one can say why, they just are! <img src="smile.gif" border="0"> <img src="confused.gif" border="0">

Based on your analysis,

1./ Martina Hingis and Jennifer Capriati will fall out of Top 5. Maybe Kim in place of Jen, but I doubt it.

2./ Serena Williams looks a bet. She only needs to play a tad more than she did this year (not go busting her guts) to do this.

3./ This one I can't see happening (someone 15-25 making the Top 5!!). But if it did, I'd bet on Elena Dementieva (easy option), or Barbara Schett (not so easy, but kind of probable. Maybe)

4./ Can't see Jelena (no.8) dropping out of the 10, but....

5./ #10 goes to Anna (possibly - I'd call her a vet!) or Amanda (hmm...)

6./ #6 goes to Jen or Martina

7./ 3 players leaving the Top 10??? Woo, well bye-bye Amelie, Jelena and ???? LOL

Top 10?

1. Lindsay Davenport<br />2. Venus Williams<br />3. Serena Williams<br />4. Kim Clijsters<br />5. Jennifer Capriati<br />6. Justine Henin<br />7. Martina Hingis<br />8. Monica Seles<br />9. Elena Dementieva<br />10. Daja Bedanova

Stanley Mitchell
Dec 18th, 2001, 02:35 PM
1.Serena Williams<br />2.Venus Williams<br />3.Lindsay Davenport<br /> If these three players remain injury free for most of the season then they'll be the top 3.Who will be 4 and so on, haven't a clue.

Jelena Dokic, should have some more improvement.<br />Martina Hingis, spent force.<br />Jennifer Capriati, if she gets fit, maybe!<br />Elena Dementieva, not consistant enough.<br />Monica Seles, been there done that , got the T-shirt.<br />Kim Clijsters, apart from the French she never looked top class, and the French was over in the first 2 days as a tournament.<br />The rest of the field, well you could throw a blanket over them, their that much inconsistant that on any given day anyone can defeat anyone.

Maybe Anna Kournikova for number 4.

kimclijsters4ever
Dec 18th, 2001, 02:56 PM
[quote]Originally posted by Stanley Mitchell:<br /><strong>Kim Clijsters, apart from the French she never looked top class, and the French was over in the first 2 days as a tournament.</strong><hr></blockquote>

How can you say that <img src="frown.gif" border="0">

Have you followed tennis in 2001??

Martian KC
Dec 18th, 2001, 03:03 PM
Hmmm....interesting. <img src="smile.gif" border="0"> <br />1.Lindsay Davenport<br />2.Martina Hingis<br />3.Venus Williams<br />4.Justine Henin<br />5.Elena Dementieva<br />6.Kim Clijsters<br />7.Jennifer Capriati<br />8.Monica Seles<br />9.Lina Krasnoroutskaya<br />10.Sandrine Testud

Stanley Mitchell
Dec 18th, 2001, 04:11 PM
And Kim Clijsters won what in 2001? Yes please do remind me, my memory gland fails me.

Good luck to Kim in 2002.

turt
Dec 18th, 2001, 05:23 PM
Kim results in 2001:

- Grand Slams: 1 final (FO), 2 QF (Wimby, USO), 4R (AO)<br />- Sanex Championships: SF, lost to Davenport in a close 3rd-set close tie-breaker.<br />- 3 titles: Stanford (def. Davenport), Leipzig (def. Maleeva, 2nd title in a row in Lepizig), Luxemburg open (def. Raymond)<br />- 3 lost finals: Indian Wells, Rosmalen and of course the French<br />- WON The Fed Cup finals with Belgium (played at top-level, overwhelmed Sanchez-Vicario on clay in Spain, and left 4 games to Dementieva in the "big final")

[ December 18, 2001: Message edited by: turt ]</p>

turt
Dec 18th, 2001, 05:35 PM
No new Top5 from >top14!

1 Henin (enter top 5)<br />2 Clijsters<br />3 S. Williams (enter top 5) <br />4 V. Williams<br />5 Davenport<br />6 Hingis (fall from top 5)<br />7 Seles <br />8 Testud (enter top 10)<br />9 Shaugnessy (enter top 10)<br />10 Pierce (enter top 10)

out of the top 10 : Capriati, Dokic and Mauresmo

magassi
Dec 18th, 2001, 05:39 PM
I can't believe that people are counting Jennifer Capriati out again. I remember in a similar post last year (on the WTA message board of the past), people predicted that Jennifer would fall down to the top 20s in 2001. And then this year, people said that she would fall out of the top five after the French (only to claim #1 and finish the year #2). I'm predicting that Jennifer will remain in the top 5 all year. Come on Caps!

Stanley Mitchell
Dec 18th, 2001, 08:07 PM
Yes Turt with those results she's sure to be remembered as one of the all-time greats.

Nearly forgot, Henin number 1?lol

[ December 18, 2001: Message edited by: Stanley Mitchell ]</p>

turt
Dec 18th, 2001, 08:28 PM
Why I picked Justine in #1:<br />First of all, last year, she was just 47 at the beginning of the year, and I think NOBODY could have picked her to be #7 at the end of the year.<br />BTW, her goal is clear: she wants to be #1. Why isn't she there yet? Because of her serve (less than 50% 1st ball in, this year...), because of her nerves (Who knows what would have happened at RG if...), and because of her lack of experience at the very top level.<br />Now, I'll tell you: I saw her in Ciney 2 days ago, in an exhibition match against Mauresmo. <br />What have I seen?<br />She has changed her serve motion. Instead of serving "not to lose the point", she now wants to serve "for winning the points" , and she comes more often to the net! She played more consistent, she served a lot of aces, she has won incredible rallies, she's quicker than last year, she hits the balls harder... although she is not 100% fit yet!

I think she will be more consistent this year, and I would definitely pick her in the top 3... #1 is maybe just a dream for this year, but I think she has the potential!

And I would definitely pick Kim Clijsters to be in the top 3 if she plays as well as at the end of the year...

[ December 18, 2001: Message edited by: turt ]</p>

Stanley Mitchell
Dec 18th, 2001, 08:41 PM
I understand fully turt. It was just a Dream.

Neither Kim Clijsters nor Justine Henin will finish in the top 3.

turt
Dec 18th, 2001, 08:46 PM
I'll remind you this post at the end of the year <img src="wink.gif" border="0">

AUSBOY
Dec 18th, 2001, 10:19 PM
1. Venus Williams<br />2. Lindsay Davenport<br />3. Martina Hingis<br />4. Serena Williams<br />5. Jelena Dokic<br />6. Kim Clistjers<br />7. Justine Henin<br />8. Jennifer Capriati<br />9. Monica Seles<br />10. Sandrine Testud

I personally can't really see anyone dropping out of the top ten other than Mauresmo who struggles with motivation and still smokes and eats what she pleases.

The only player in the top 25 worthy of making a rise into the top ten is Sandrine Testud in my opinion.

People thinking Tulyagonova stands a chance of being in the top 10 must be on drugs!

Tulyagonova isn't anywhere near that standard. I saw her play this year and win, but she didn't impress me, she hasn't got a lot of power. To get into the top 10 she has to improve her results 100% cos at the moment she only has half the points required to be a top ten player.

Dementieva also doesn't have the game to get much higher either. She's on par with Schett I feel and will probably maintain a 12-18 ranking. Although i think she posesses nice groundies, she just not quite strong enough or consistent enough to get to that top level.

Shaughnessy didn't finish the year off to well and in my opinion will struggle next year to improve on this breakthrough year for her. I think she will probably remain ranked between 12-18 like Dementieva. If I had to chose between her and Dementieva, I would say that Meghann has more chance at the top 10 as she has a better serve and bigger forehand

Sandrine with her experience, and big serve and solid groundies can pose a threat to most players above her when she's on. She had a relatively poor start last season so I expect her to definitely spend sometime in the top 10 this year with Mauresmo defending a lot of points early on in the year.

Blessings And Aloha
Dec 18th, 2001, 11:32 PM
Iroda doesnt have a lot of power...you must be kidding me. She hits the ball very hard, and she already has wins over Henin, CLjsters, Dementieva and others this year.

joao
Dec 19th, 2001, 04:12 AM
Wow...I really like this post!!!! <img src="graemlins/bounce.gif" border="0" alt="[Bounce]" /> Bravo tennisaddict for this pretty good analysis of the in&outs of the top 10 rankings ... but I don't know! Even though you unmasked a clear pattern here, we know that history hardly repeats itself. So why should the tennis world be different!? And this top 10 is sooo strong now ... I can't imagine anyone there not fighting enough to stay there! All these girls know that it is very hard to get there ... so I can't think of anyone falling from the top 10 next year! And if there is a real rule here, my guess is that in 2002 we will see the exception to that rule and get the same ones but in different orders!

But like everyone else I tried my best to stick to this pattern (and that was hard!) and here goes my hypothetical year-end top 10 of 2002

1- Venus Williams (2002 is Venus's year)

2- Lindsay Davenport (she's been top 3 for the last 5 years and she's not ready to quit yet!)

3- Serena Williams (here's my new top5 from top14)

4- Monica Seles (she will be back strong as ever but her days at #1 are history now!)

5- Kim Clijsters (eternal #5 ... she won't improve her ranking because she has too many points to defend next year)

6- Martina Hingis (top5 out of the top5...after so many years on top, we will see her falling a little bit more. She's still a top10 contender for another couple of years though)

7- Justine Henin (like her fellow belgian, she won't improve for the same reasons. I don't believe she's ready yet for the top5 though)

8- Amelie Mauresmo (she showed everybody she has the skills to be part of the top 10! But she has a lot to defend in the first half of the year which make me think she won't gain points enough to improve)

9- Jelena Dokic (now that she's there she will fight to stay there. She's got a lot of potential and showed that she can play 26 tournaments a year and still be fresh at the end. But 26 it's a lot to defend and she's not ready to beat the top5 yet. So she will drop)

10- Sandrine Testud (my veteran...I believe she's the only one in the top 10-20 that can make it through next year... gives always a hard work to players ranked above her)

Well, I tried my best but I can't see anybody from the top 15-25 entering the top10 next year (entering the top5? don't make me laugh!!!). I don't see any ex-top10 player getting back there either! ASV, Coetzer, Conchita, Huber, Schett... all veterans, all tired (except Schett maybe), all ready to slowly roll down the hill! Dementieva and Kournikova? what's up with these girls? I don't understand...

My only pick for a top10 out of the top10 next year would be Capriati. She could disappear as fast as she reappeared! Achieved what she wanted to achieve (#1 and GS winner)... with a motivation gone and all these GS points to defend...Bubye JCap!

I have a joker for #10 though: Pierce!!! She will come back if she stays injury free for awhile!

Stanley Mitchell
Dec 19th, 2001, 10:38 AM
lol Turt,could be as early as February when you'll be reminding me.

Good luck to Justine in 2002.

Sam L
Dec 19th, 2001, 11:09 AM
---> Stanley Mitchell

Kim: "with those results she's sure to be remembered as one of the all-time greats." I didn't know this thread was talking about all-time greats. <img src="rolleyes.gif" border="0">

The fact is Kim had a good year in 2001 and her results reflect that.. and that's why she ended the year ranked #5.

"the French was over in the first 2 days as a tournament." Well I guess your favourite lost in 1st round? LOL <img src="eek.gif" border="0"> Don't discredit another player (Capriati)'s win in a Grand Slam tournament just because your favourite can't get past the 1st round.

turt
Dec 19th, 2001, 11:47 AM
Stanley: I'm quite confident in Justine's performances in January 2002. Although she has won 2 tourneys last year, she ended her 13-wins streak in the 4th Round of AO (despite a 4-2 lead in both 2nd & 3rd set against Monica)... She will do much better this time!

Stanley Mitchell
Dec 19th, 2001, 12:04 PM
Kim Clijsters will Never win a Major title.

Like turt said, she should never have reached the Final at RG.Only for Justine's nerves getting the better of her she Wouldn't have.

The titles she won are from mediocre tournaments.

I would say she reached 5# because she didn't have many points to defend in 2001.The rankings system seems to reward players who play more,rather than players who Win More.

The French Open was over as a tournament after the first two days.The only real danger to Capriati winning the title was a 50% fit Serena Williams.

As for having a favorite player, I don't have one.

Good luck to Kim & Jennifer in 2002.

thefreedesigner
Dec 19th, 2001, 12:10 PM
Kim will never win a major title.

That's a provocative statement, Stanley.

Only time will tell.

turt
Dec 19th, 2001, 12:24 PM
Well, let's ask Lindsay Davenport what she thinks of this statement "Kim Clijsters will never win a Major title"...

Lindsay Davenport
Dec 19th, 2001, 12:45 PM
I agree with Stanley

Brαm
Dec 19th, 2001, 12:46 PM
Stanley Mitchell, you're funny. In fact you're hilarious. Well not you, but the things you say...<br />Aaaaah, good old funny Stanley Mitchell... (or should I say Junior Member Lindsay Davenport, 1 post?)

<img src="rolleyes.gif" border="0">

[ December 19, 2001: Message edited by: bram_born84 ]</p>

turt
Dec 19th, 2001, 12:47 PM
http://forum.adsl-bc.org/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif http://forum.adsl-bc.org/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif http://forum.adsl-bc.org/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif http://forum.adsl-bc.org/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif http://forum.adsl-bc.org/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif